Intrinsic value of Security National Financial Cl A - SNFCA

Previous Close

$5.20

  Intrinsic Value

$22.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+334%

Previous close

$5.20

 
Intrinsic value

$22.57

 
Up/down potential

+334%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SNFCA.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SNFCA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.54
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  311
  318
  326
  336
  346
  357
  369
  382
  396
  412
  428
  445
  464
  483
  504
  526
  550
  575
  601
  628
  657
  688
  720
  755
  791
  828
  868
  910
  954
  1,000
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  273
  280
  287
  295
  304
  314
  324
  336
  348
  362
  376
  391
  407
  424
  443
  462
  483
  504
  527
  552
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  727
  762
  799
  838
  878
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  271
  273
  280
  287
  295
  304
  314
  324
  336
  348
  362
  376
  391
  407
  424
  443
  462
  483
  504
  527
  552
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  727
  762
  799
  838
  878
Operating income, $m
  34
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
EBITDA, $m
  47
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
Earnings before tax, $m
  20
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
Tax expense, $m
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
Net income, $m
  12
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  40
  41

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  952
  972
  995
  1,020
  1,049
  1,081
  1,115
  1,153
  1,195
  1,239
  1,286
  1,337
  1,392
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,718
  1,795
  1,877
  1,963
  2,054
  2,150
  2,252
  2,358
  2,470
  2,589
  2,713
  2,844
  2,982
  3,127
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  952
  972
  995
  1,020
  1,049
  1,081
  1,115
  1,153
  1,195
  1,239
  1,286
  1,337
  1,392
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,718
  1,795
  1,877
  1,963
  2,054
  2,150
  2,252
  2,358
  2,470
  2,589
  2,713
  2,844
  2,982
  3,127
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Average production assets, $m
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  152
  169
  188
  210
  235
  262
  292
  325
  360
  398
  439
  483
  530
  579
  632
  688
  748
  811
  877
  947
  1,022
  1,100
  1,182
  1,269
  1,361
  1,458
  1,559
  1,666
  1,779
  1,897
  2,022
Total liabilities, $m
  819
  836
  855
  877
  902
  929
  959
  992
  1,027
  1,065
  1,106
  1,150
  1,197
  1,246
  1,299
  1,355
  1,415
  1,478
  1,544
  1,614
  1,689
  1,767
  1,849
  1,936
  2,028
  2,125
  2,226
  2,333
  2,446
  2,564
  2,689
Total equity, $m
  133
  136
  139
  143
  147
  151
  156
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  241
  251
  263
  275
  288
  301
  315
  330
  346
  362
  380
  398
  417
  438
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  952
  972
  994
  1,020
  1,049
  1,080
  1,115
  1,153
  1,194
  1,238
  1,286
  1,337
  1,392
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,719
  1,795
  1,877
  1,964
  2,055
  2,150
  2,251
  2,358
  2,471
  2,588
  2,713
  2,844
  2,981
  3,127
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.143
  1.240
  1.350
  1.470
  1.600
  1.730
  1.870
  2.010
  2.150
  2.300
  2.440
  2.580
  2.720
  2.860
  2.990
  3.120
  3.250
  3.370
  3.490
  3.600
  3.720
  3.820
  3.930
  4.030
  4.120
  4.210
  4.300
  4.390
  4.470
  4.540
  4.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  12
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  40
  41
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  42
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  36
  26
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  46
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -56
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -20
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  21
  17
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  125
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  19
  17
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  125
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  41
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  164
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
Discount rate, %
 
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  35
  34
  33
  31
  29
  27
  25
  23
  20
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Security National Financial Corporation is a holding company. The Company operates through three segments: life insurance, cemetery and mortuary, and mortgage loans. The life insurance segment is engaged in the business of selling and servicing selected lines of life insurance, annuity products, and accident and health insurance. The cemetery and mortuary segment consists of approximately seven mortuaries and five cemeteries in the state of Utah and a cemetery in the state of California. The mortgage loan segment originates and underwrites or otherwise purchases residential and commercial loans for new construction, existing homes and real estate projects. The Company is also engaged in pre-need selling of funeral, cemetery, mortuary and cremation services through its Utah and California operations. It also sells pre-need funeral, cemetery and cremation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Security National Financial Cl A (SNFCA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 2.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 114.3%
Total Debt to Equity 114.3%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Operating Margin 11.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 40%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SNFCA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SNFCA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $305 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Security National Financial Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Security National Financial Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SNFCA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for SNFCA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Security National Financial Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Security National Financial Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SNFCA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SNFCA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Security National Financial Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Security National Financial Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SNFCA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SNFCA are equal to 2.8%.

Life of production assets of 0.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Security National Financial Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SNFCA is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for Security National Financial Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 15.826 million for Security National Financial Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Security National Financial Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
ATAX America First 6.05 1.46  str.sell
EFC Ellington Fina 14.91 6.49  str.sell
PHH PHH 11.10 8.39  sell
PFSI PennyMac Finan 21.80 20.16  hold
CSV Carriage Servi 26.21 26.58  hold
SCI Service Intern 36.83 26.03  sell
STON StoneMor Partn 6.75 5.63  hold
WD Walker&Dunlop 48.28 108.87  str.buy
MATW Matthews Inter 53.80 36.88  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Security National Financial posts 3Q profit   [Nov-16-17 05:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Security National Financial posts 2Q profit   [Aug-25-17 09:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ Security National Financial posts 1Q profit   [May-15-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ 10-Q for Security National Financial Corp.   [Aug-16  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Security National Financial Corp.   [May-18  08:12PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Security National Financial Corp.   [Apr-26  08:14PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Security National Financial Corp.   [Nov-17  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of SNFCA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

VALUATION THEORY       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2017. All rigths reserved.