Intrinsic value of SORL Auto Parts - SORL

Previous Close

$5.44

  Intrinsic Value

$17.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+214%

  Value-price divergence*

+200%

Previous close

$5.44

 
Intrinsic value

$17.09

 
Up/down potential

+214%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+200%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SORL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  24.20
  37.00
  33.80
  30.92
  28.33
  26.00
  23.90
  22.01
  20.31
  18.77
  17.40
  16.16
  15.04
  14.04
  13.13
  12.32
  11.59
  10.93
  10.34
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.84
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
Revenue, $m
  272
  373
  499
  653
  838
  1,055
  1,308
  1,595
  1,919
  2,280
  2,676
  3,109
  3,576
  4,078
  4,614
  5,182
  5,783
  6,415
  7,078
  7,772
  8,497
  9,252
  10,039
  10,857
  11,708
  12,592
  13,511
  14,466
  15,458
  16,490
  17,563
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  316
  423
  554
  711
  896
  1,110
  1,354
  1,630
  1,935
  2,272
  2,639
  3,036
  3,463
  3,917
  4,400
  4,910
  5,446
  6,009
  6,599
  7,214
  7,855
  8,523
  9,218
  9,940
  10,691
  11,471
  12,281
  13,124
  14,000
  14,911
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
Total operating expenses, $m
  249
  334
  442
  573
  731
  916
  1,131
  1,375
  1,652
  1,957
  2,295
  2,663
  3,060
  3,488
  3,942
  4,426
  4,937
  5,473
  6,037
  6,628
  7,243
  7,885
  8,554
  9,250
  9,973
  10,724
  11,505
  12,316
  13,160
  14,037
  14,949
Operating income, $m
  23
  38
  56
  79
  107
  139
  177
  220
  268
  322
  381
  446
  516
  591
  671
  756
  847
  941
  1,041
  1,145
  1,254
  1,367
  1,485
  1,608
  1,735
  1,868
  2,006
  2,149
  2,298
  2,453
  2,614
EBITDA, $m
  30
  45
  67
  93
  124
  161
  204
  252
  307
  369
  436
  510
  589
  675
  766
  863
  966
  1,073
  1,187
  1,305
  1,429
  1,557
  1,692
  1,831
  1,976
  2,127
  2,284
  2,447
  2,617
  2,793
  2,976
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  3
  5
  9
  13
  17
  22
  28
  35
  43
  51
  60
  70
  81
  92
  104
  116
  130
  143
  158
  173
  189
  206
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
Earnings before tax, $m
  25
  37
  54
  74
  98
  126
  159
  197
  239
  286
  338
  395
  456
  521
  591
  665
  743
  825
  911
  1,001
  1,096
  1,194
  1,296
  1,402
  1,513
  1,627
  1,747
  1,871
  2,000
  2,134
  2,273
Tax expense, $m
  4
  10
  14
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  65
  77
  91
  107
  123
  141
  160
  179
  201
  223
  246
  270
  296
  322
  350
  379
  408
  439
  472
  505
  540
  576
  614
Net income, $m
  19
  27
  39
  54
  71
  92
  116
  144
  175
  209
  247
  288
  333
  380
  431
  485
  542
  602
  665
  731
  800
  871
  946
  1,024
  1,104
  1,188
  1,275
  1,366
  1,460
  1,558
  1,660

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  301
  402
  537
  703
  903
  1,137
  1,409
  1,719
  2,068
  2,457
  2,884
  3,350
  3,854
  4,395
  4,972
  5,585
  6,232
  6,913
  7,627
  8,375
  9,156
  9,970
  10,818
  11,699
  12,616
  13,569
  14,559
  15,588
  16,657
  17,769
  18,926
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  293
  402
  537
  703
  903
  1,137
  1,409
  1,719
  2,068
  2,457
  2,884
  3,350
  3,854
  4,395
  4,972
  5,585
  6,232
  6,913
  7,627
  8,375
  9,156
  9,970
  10,818
  11,699
  12,616
  13,569
  14,559
  15,588
  16,657
  17,769
  18,926
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.928
  0.928
  0.929
  0.929
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
  0.928
Average production assets, $m
  56
  77
  103
  134
  173
  217
  269
  329
  395
  470
  551
  640
  737
  840
  950
  1,068
  1,191
  1,322
  1,458
  1,601
  1,750
  1,906
  2,068
  2,237
  2,412
  2,594
  2,783
  2,980
  3,184
  3,397
  3,618
Working capital, $m
  100
  163
  218
  286
  367
  462
  573
  699
  841
  999
  1,172
  1,362
  1,566
  1,786
  2,021
  2,270
  2,533
  2,810
  3,100
  3,404
  3,722
  4,052
  4,397
  4,755
  5,128
  5,515
  5,918
  6,336
  6,771
  7,223
  7,693
Total debt, $m
  27
  76
  148
  235
  340
  463
  606
  769
  953
  1,157
  1,382
  1,627
  1,892
  2,177
  2,480
  2,802
  3,143
  3,501
  3,877
  4,270
  4,681
  5,109
  5,555
  6,019
  6,501
  7,002
  7,523
  8,064
  8,627
  9,212
  9,820
Total liabilities, $m
  162
  211
  283
  370
  475
  598
  741
  904
  1,088
  1,292
  1,517
  1,762
  2,027
  2,312
  2,615
  2,937
  3,278
  3,636
  4,012
  4,405
  4,816
  5,244
  5,690
  6,154
  6,636
  7,137
  7,658
  8,199
  8,762
  9,347
  9,955
Total equity, $m
  139
  190
  255
  333
  428
  539
  668
  815
  980
  1,164
  1,367
  1,588
  1,827
  2,083
  2,357
  2,647
  2,954
  3,277
  3,615
  3,970
  4,340
  4,726
  5,128
  5,545
  5,980
  6,432
  6,901
  7,389
  7,896
  8,423
  8,971
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  401
  538
  703
  903
  1,137
  1,409
  1,719
  2,068
  2,456
  2,884
  3,350
  3,854
  4,395
  4,972
  5,584
  6,232
  6,913
  7,627
  8,375
  9,156
  9,970
  10,818
  11,699
  12,616
  13,569
  14,559
  15,588
  16,658
  17,770
  18,926
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.194
  0.400
  0.580
  0.700
  0.790
  0.860
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.020
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474
  0.474

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  19
  27
  39
  54
  71
  92
  116
  144
  175
  209
  247
  288
  333
  380
  431
  485
  542
  602
  665
  731
  800
  871
  946
  1,024
  1,104
  1,188
  1,275
  1,366
  1,460
  1,558
  1,660
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  8
  10
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  40
  47
  55
  64
  74
  84
  95
  107
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  207
  224
  241
  259
  278
  298
  318
  340
  362
Funds from operations, $m
  -18
  35
  49
  67
  89
  114
  143
  177
  214
  256
  302
  352
  406
  464
  526
  592
  661
  734
  811
  891
  975
  1,062
  1,153
  1,247
  1,345
  1,447
  1,554
  1,664
  1,778
  1,897
  2,021
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  44
  55
  68
  81
  95
  110
  126
  142
  158
  174
  189
  205
  220
  235
  249
  263
  277
  290
  304
  317
  331
  345
  358
  373
  387
  402
  418
  435
  452
  470
Cash from operations, $m
  5
  -9
  -6
  0
  8
  19
  33
  51
  72
  98
  128
  163
  201
  244
  292
  343
  398
  458
  521
  587
  657
  731
  808
  889
  973
  1,060
  1,151
  1,246
  1,344
  1,446
  1,551
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -74
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -132
  -146
  -160
  -175
  -191
  -207
  -224
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -318
  -340
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -32
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -74
  -82
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -204
  -213
  -221
Cash from investing activities, $m
  38
  -27
  -34
  -42
  -51
  -62
  -74
  -86
  -100
  -114
  -129
  -144
  -160
  -177
  -194
  -212
  -231
  -249
  -269
  -289
  -309
  -331
  -353
  -376
  -399
  -423
  -448
  -475
  -502
  -531
  -561
Free cash flow, $m
  43
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -43
  -41
  -36
  -27
  -16
  0
  19
  41
  67
  97
  131
  168
  208
  252
  298
  348
  400
  456
  513
  574
  637
  702
  770
  841
  915
  991
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  4
  57
  71
  87
  105
  123
  143
  163
  184
  204
  225
  245
  265
  285
  304
  322
  340
  358
  376
  393
  411
  428
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  608
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  24
  25
  25
  23
  19
  12
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -67
  81
  96
  112
  128
  142
  155
  166
  184
  204
  225
  245
  265
  285
  304
  322
  340
  358
  376
  393
  411
  428
  446
  464
  482
  501
  521
  541
  563
  585
  608
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -22
  46
  57
  70
  84
  99
  115
  131
  156
  189
  224
  264
  306
  352
  401
  453
  508
  566
  628
  692
  759
  829
  901
  977
  1,056
  1,138
  1,223
  1,312
  1,404
  1,499
  1,599
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  61
  -51
  -64
  -79
  -94
  -111
  -129
  -147
  -165
  -184
  -203
  -221
  -239
  -256
  -274
  -290
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -469
  -488
  -507
  -527
  -548
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -9
  5
  22
  43
  67
  96
  127
  163
  202
  244
  289
  337
  389
  443
  500
  559
  622
  686
  754
  824
  897
  972
  1,051
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -6
  3
  11
  20
  29
  36
  43
  48
  51
  53
  53
  52
  49
  46
  41
  37
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.4
  69.3
  61.4
  56.4
  53.3
  51.7
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4
  51.4

SORL Auto Parts, Inc. manufactures and distributes automotive brake systems and other safety related auto parts in China. It operates through two segments, Commercial Vehicles Brake Systems and Passenger Vehicles Brake Systems. The company offers a range of products covering 65 categories and approximately 2000 specifications in automotive brake systems. Its products are principally used in various types of commercial vehicles, such as trucks and buses. SORL Auto Parts, Inc. markets its products under the SORL brand to automotive original equipment manufacturers and the related aftermarket through authorized distributors. The company exports its products to approximately 104 countries and regions. SORL Auto Parts, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Rui'an, the People’s Republic of China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SORL Auto Parts (SORL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5.5
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 433.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 19.4%
Interest Coverage 26
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 16%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SORL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SORL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $272 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SORL Auto Parts. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SORL Auto Parts. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SORL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 37% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SORL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SORL Auto Parts, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SORL Auto Parts.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SORL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $18 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SORL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for SORL Auto Parts.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SORL Auto Parts. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SORL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SORL are equal to 20.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SORL Auto Parts operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SORL is equal to 43.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $139 million for SORL Auto Parts - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.485 million for SORL Auto Parts is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SORL Auto Parts at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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Stock chart of SORL Financial statements of SORL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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