Intrinsic value of Sparton - SPA

Previous Close

$23.29

  Intrinsic Value

$1.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

Previous close

$23.29

 
Intrinsic value

$1.75

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.01
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  398
  406
  415
  426
  438
  451
  466
  482
  499
  517
  537
  558
  581
  605
  631
  658
  687
  717
  750
  784
  820
  858
  898
  940
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
  1,245
  1,306
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  456
  466
  478
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  625
  651
  678
  706
  737
  769
  803
  840
  878
  918
  961
  1,005
  1,053
  1,103
  1,155
  1,210
  1,269
  1,330
  1,394
  1,462
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  390
  456
  466
  478
  492
  507
  523
  541
  560
  581
  603
  625
  651
  678
  706
  737
  769
  803
  840
  878
  918
  961
  1,005
  1,053
  1,103
  1,155
  1,210
  1,269
  1,330
  1,394
  1,462
Operating income, $m
  8
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
EBITDA, $m
  23
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
Tax expense, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  1
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  217
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  465
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  644
  676
  708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  216
  220
  225
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  271
  281
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  465
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  644
  676
  708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.843
  1.845
  1.844
  1.844
  1.840
  1.841
  1.842
  1.847
  1.841
  1.840
  1.845
  1.842
  1.844
  1.845
  1.845
  1.843
  1.842
  1.843
  1.843
  1.845
  1.843
  1.845
  1.844
  1.843
  1.845
  1.843
  1.842
  1.842
  1.845
  1.842
  1.845
Average production assets, $m
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  190
  200
  209
  219
Working capital, $m
  56
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
Total debt, $m
  75
  78
  81
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  245
  259
  274
  290
  307
  324
  343
  362
  383
Total liabilities, $m
  135
  138
  141
  144
  149
  153
  158
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  214
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  403
  422
  443
Total equity, $m
  82
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  159
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  253
  266
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  217
  221
  226
  231
  238
  245
  253
  261
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  445
  466
  488
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  645
  675
  709
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.915
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.240
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
  1.340
  1.350
  1.370
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375
  0.375

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
Funds from operations, $m
  44
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -132
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -49
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -23
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  177
  185
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  58
  59
  62
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  106
  110
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  206
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -185
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -50
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
Discount rate, %
 
  7.40
  7.77
  8.16
  8.57
  8.99
  9.44
  9.92
  10.41
  10.93
  11.48
  12.05
  12.66
  13.29
  13.95
  14.65
  15.38
  16.15
  16.96
  17.81
  18.70
  19.63
  20.62
  21.65
  22.73
  23.87
  25.06
  26.31
  27.63
  29.01
  30.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -47
  -45
  -43
  -40
  -37
  -34
  -32
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.5
  64.7
  51.9
  41.6
  33.3
  26.7
  21.3
  17.0
  13.6
  10.8
  8.7
  6.9
  5.5
  4.4
  3.5
  2.8
  2.2
  1.8
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1

Sparton Corporation is a provider of design, development and manufacturing services for electromechanical devices, as well as engineered products complementary to the same electromechanical value stream. The Company operates through two segments: Manufacturing & Design Services (MDS) and Engineered Components & Products (ECP). The Company serves the medical and biotechnology, military and aerospace, and industrial and commercial markets. Its products and services include offerings for original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and emerging technology (ET) customers, which utilize microprocessor-based systems, such as transducers, printed circuit boards and assemblies, and sensors, as well as development and design engineering services. It develops and manufactures sonobuoys, which are anti-submarine warfare (ASW) devices. The Company also manufactures rugged flat panel display systems for military panel personal computer workstations, air traffic control and industrial applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sparton (SPA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 229.6
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -29.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 91.5%
Total Debt to Equity 91.5%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Equity 1.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Operating Margin 2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Net Profit Margin 0.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $398 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sparton. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sparton. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.4%, whose default value for SPA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sparton, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sparton.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 112.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Sparton.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sparton. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPA are equal to 16.8%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sparton operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPA is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $82 million for Sparton - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 9.86 million for Sparton is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sparton at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ White House announces new travel restrictions   [Sep-25-17 10:55AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sparton Corp. : September 19, 2017   [Sep-19-17 06:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sparton posts 4Q profit   [Sep-14-17 09:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ How to Invest in Defense Stocks   [01:02PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Company News for July 10, 2017   [10:13AM  Zacks]
▶ [$$] Ultra Electronics in talks to buy Sparton   [Jun-24-17 08:22AM  Financial Times]
▶ Sparton posts 3Q profit   [May-09-17 06:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sparton Corp. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sparton Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Sparton reports 2Q loss   [Feb-07-17 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Sparton Corp. : January 3, 2017   [Jan-03-17 02:57PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Sparton Corporation (SPA)?   [Dec-06-16 02:22AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] A Turnaround Is in the Works at PICO Holdings   [Sep-17-16 03:19AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Sparton Showcases Future Naval Capability   [Sep-13-16 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ Sparton reports 4Q loss   [04:34PM  AP]
▶ Sparton Awarded Navy SeaPort-e Contract   [08:30AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SPA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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