Intrinsic value of Spartan Motors - SPAR

Previous Close

$15.20

  Intrinsic Value

$262.53

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$15.20

 
Intrinsic value

$262.53

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPAR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.45
  26.80
  24.62
  22.66
  20.89
  19.30
  17.87
  16.59
  15.43
  14.38
  13.45
  12.60
  11.84
  11.16
  10.54
  9.99
  9.49
  9.04
  8.64
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.39
  7.15
  6.93
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
Revenue, $m
  591
  749
  934
  1,145
  1,385
  1,652
  1,947
  2,270
  2,621
  2,998
  3,401
  3,829
  4,283
  4,760
  5,262
  5,788
  6,337
  6,910
  7,506
  8,127
  8,773
  9,444
  10,142
  10,866
  11,620
  12,403
  13,217
  14,064
  14,946
  15,863
  16,819
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  347
  432
  530
  640
  764
  900
  1,049
  1,210
  1,384
  1,570
  1,766
  1,976
  2,196
  2,427
  2,670
  2,923
  3,187
  3,463
  3,749
  4,047
  4,357
  4,678
  5,013
  5,360
  5,721
  6,097
  6,488
  6,894
  7,318
  7,759
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  324
  332
  340
  349
  358
  366
  376
  385
  395
  405
  415
  425
  436
  446
  458
  469
  481
  493
  505
  518
  531
  544
  558
  572
  586
  600
  616
  631
  647
  663
Total operating expenses, $m
  582
  671
  764
  870
  989
  1,122
  1,266
  1,425
  1,595
  1,779
  1,975
  2,181
  2,401
  2,632
  2,873
  3,128
  3,392
  3,668
  3,956
  4,254
  4,565
  4,888
  5,222
  5,571
  5,932
  6,307
  6,697
  7,104
  7,525
  7,965
  8,422
Operating income, $m
  9
  78
  169
  275
  396
  531
  681
  846
  1,025
  1,219
  1,426
  1,648
  1,882
  2,129
  2,388
  2,660
  2,945
  3,241
  3,551
  3,873
  4,208
  4,557
  4,919
  5,296
  5,688
  6,096
  6,520
  6,961
  7,420
  7,899
  8,398
EBITDA, $m
  17
  87
  180
  287
  410
  548
  700
  868
  1,051
  1,248
  1,459
  1,683
  1,921
  2,173
  2,437
  2,713
  3,003
  3,305
  3,620
  3,948
  4,289
  4,644
  5,012
  5,396
  5,795
  6,209
  6,641
  7,090
  7,558
  8,045
  8,552
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  78
  169
  273
  393
  527
  675
  839
  1,016
  1,208
  1,413
  1,633
  1,865
  2,109
  2,366
  2,636
  2,917
  3,211
  3,518
  3,837
  4,169
  4,514
  4,873
  5,246
  5,634
  6,037
  6,457
  6,894
  7,349
  7,823
  8,317
Tax expense, $m
  0
  21
  46
  74
  106
  142
  182
  226
  274
  326
  382
  441
  504
  570
  639
  712
  788
  867
  950
  1,036
  1,126
  1,219
  1,316
  1,416
  1,521
  1,630
  1,743
  1,861
  1,984
  2,112
  2,246
Net income, $m
  9
  57
  123
  200
  287
  384
  493
  612
  742
  882
  1,032
  1,192
  1,361
  1,540
  1,727
  1,924
  2,130
  2,344
  2,568
  2,801
  3,043
  3,295
  3,557
  3,829
  4,113
  4,407
  4,714
  5,033
  5,365
  5,711
  6,072

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  243
  268
  333
  409
  494
  590
  695
  811
  936
  1,070
  1,214
  1,367
  1,529
  1,700
  1,879
  2,066
  2,262
  2,467
  2,680
  2,902
  3,132
  3,372
  3,621
  3,879
  4,148
  4,428
  4,719
  5,021
  5,336
  5,663
  6,005
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  211
  268
  333
  409
  494
  590
  695
  811
  936
  1,070
  1,214
  1,367
  1,529
  1,700
  1,879
  2,066
  2,262
  2,467
  2,680
  2,902
  3,132
  3,372
  3,621
  3,879
  4,148
  4,428
  4,719
  5,021
  5,336
  5,663
  6,005
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.801
  2.795
  2.805
  2.800
  2.804
  2.800
  2.801
  2.799
  2.800
  2.802
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.800
  2.800
  2.802
  2.802
  2.801
  2.801
  2.800
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
  2.801
Average production assets, $m
  33
  42
  52
  64
  78
  93
  109
  127
  147
  168
  190
  214
  240
  267
  295
  324
  355
  387
  420
  455
  491
  529
  568
  609
  651
  695
  740
  788
  837
  888
  942
Working capital, $m
  74
  53
  66
  81
  98
  117
  138
  161
  186
  213
  241
  272
  304
  338
  374
  411
  450
  491
  533
  577
  623
  671
  720
  772
  825
  881
  938
  999
  1,061
  1,126
  1,194
Total debt, $m
  0
  24
  52
  84
  120
  160
  204
  253
  306
  363
  423
  488
  556
  628
  704
  783
  866
  952
  1,042
  1,135
  1,233
  1,334
  1,439
  1,548
  1,662
  1,780
  1,902
  2,030
  2,163
  2,301
  2,445
Total liabilities, $m
  90
  113
  141
  173
  209
  249
  293
  342
  395
  452
  512
  577
  645
  717
  793
  872
  955
  1,041
  1,131
  1,224
  1,322
  1,423
  1,528
  1,637
  1,751
  1,869
  1,991
  2,119
  2,252
  2,390
  2,534
Total equity, $m
  154
  155
  193
  236
  286
  341
  402
  469
  541
  619
  702
  790
  884
  982
  1,086
  1,194
  1,308
  1,426
  1,549
  1,677
  1,810
  1,949
  2,093
  2,242
  2,398
  2,559
  2,727
  2,902
  3,084
  3,273
  3,471
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  244
  268
  334
  409
  495
  590
  695
  811
  936
  1,071
  1,214
  1,367
  1,529
  1,699
  1,879
  2,066
  2,263
  2,467
  2,680
  2,901
  3,132
  3,372
  3,621
  3,879
  4,149
  4,428
  4,718
  5,021
  5,336
  5,663
  6,005
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.150
  0.270
  0.350
  0.420
  0.470
  0.510
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  57
  123
  200
  287
  384
  493
  612
  742
  882
  1,032
  1,192
  1,361
  1,540
  1,727
  1,924
  2,130
  2,344
  2,568
  2,801
  3,043
  3,295
  3,557
  3,829
  4,113
  4,407
  4,714
  5,033
  5,365
  5,711
  6,072
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  154
Funds from operations, $m
  31
  66
  133
  212
  301
  401
  513
  635
  768
  911
  1,064
  1,227
  1,401
  1,584
  1,776
  1,977
  2,188
  2,408
  2,637
  2,875
  3,124
  3,382
  3,650
  3,929
  4,219
  4,521
  4,835
  5,162
  5,502
  5,857
  6,226
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  54
  120
  197
  284
  382
  492
  612
  743
  884
  1,036
  1,197
  1,369
  1,550
  1,740
  1,940
  2,149
  2,367
  2,594
  2,831
  3,078
  3,334
  3,601
  3,878
  4,166
  4,466
  4,777
  5,102
  5,440
  5,792
  6,158
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -58
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -200
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  40
  103
  176
  260
  355
  460
  576
  702
  839
  986
  1,142
  1,308
  1,484
  1,668
  1,862
  2,065
  2,277
  2,498
  2,728
  2,967
  3,216
  3,475
  3,744
  4,024
  4,315
  4,618
  4,933
  5,261
  5,603
  5,959
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  24
  28
  32
  36
  40
  44
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  123
  128
  133
  138
  144
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  64
  131
  208
  296
  395
  504
  624
  755
  896
  1,046
  1,206
  1,376
  1,556
  1,744
  1,941
  2,148
  2,363
  2,587
  2,821
  3,064
  3,317
  3,580
  3,853
  4,137
  4,433
  4,741
  5,061
  5,394
  5,741
  6,103
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -155
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  63
  93
  164
  247
  340
  443
  558
  683
  818
  963
  1,118
  1,283
  1,457
  1,640
  1,833
  2,034
  2,245
  2,464
  2,693
  2,931
  3,179
  3,436
  3,704
  3,982
  4,271
  4,573
  4,886
  5,212
  5,552
  5,906
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  61
  85
  143
  203
  263
  322
  377
  427
  470
  505
  531
  547
  554
  551
  538
  517
  488
  454
  415
  372
  329
  285
  243
  203
  166
  133
  105
  81
  61
  44
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Spartan Motors, Inc. is an engineer and manufacturer in the heavy-duty, custom vehicles marketplace. The Company operates through three segments: Emergency Response Vehicles, Delivery and Service Vehicles, and Specialty Chassis and Vehicles. The Company's Emergency Response Vehicles segment engineers and manufactures emergency response chassis, emergency response bodies and aerial equipment. The Delivery and Service Vehicles segment manufactures delivery and service vehicles through the Company's subsidiary, Utilimaster Corporation (Utilimaster). The Company's Specialty Chassis and Vehicles segment consists of the operations of Spartan Motors Chassis, Inc. (Spartan Chassis) that engineer and manufacture motor home chassis, defense vehicles and other specialty chassis, and distribute related aftermarket parts and assemblies. The Company markets its products under brands, such as Spartan ERV, Aeromaster, Trademaster, Metromaster and Utilivan.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Spartan Motors (SPAR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.1
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 160%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Total Capital 5.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Return On Equity 5.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.4%
Asset Turnover 2.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
EBITDA Margin 2.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 56.4%
Payout Ratio 33.3%

SPAR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPAR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $591 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Spartan Motors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Spartan Motors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPAR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 26.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SPAR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Spartan Motors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Spartan Motors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPAR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 46.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $316 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPAR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Spartan Motors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Spartan Motors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPAR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPAR are equal to 5.6%.

Life of production assets of 6.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Spartan Motors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPAR is equal to 7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $154 million for Spartan Motors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.441 million for Spartan Motors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Spartan Motors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ At $14.55, Is It Time To Sell Spartan Motors Inc (SPAR)?   [Nov-10-17 10:15AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Spartan Motors Announces Dividend   [Nov-02-17 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Spartan Motors misses 3Q profit forecasts   [07:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ Spartan Motors Names Dominic Romeo to Board of Directors   [Oct-25-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is Spartan Motors (SPAR) a Great Growth Stock?   [Sep-05-17 08:51AM  Zacks]
▶ Spartan Motors beats Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 12:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Spartan Motors beats Street 2Q forecasts   [07:51AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Spartan Motors, Inc. : July 6, 2017   [Jul-06-17 02:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Spartan Motors Announces Dividend   [May-04-17 04:15PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Spartan Motors reports 1Q loss   [07:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ Spartan Motors beats Street 4Q forecasts   [08:19AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of SPAR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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