Intrinsic value of Suburban Propane Partners - SPH

Previous Close

$24.02

  Intrinsic Value

$33.06

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+38%

Previous close

$24.02

 
Intrinsic value

$33.06

 
Up/down potential

+38%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  13.58
  13.60
  12.74
  11.97
  11.27
  10.64
  10.08
  9.57
  9.11
  8.70
  8.33
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
Revenue, $m
  1,188
  1,350
  1,522
  1,704
  1,896
  2,097
  2,309
  2,530
  2,760
  3,000
  3,250
  3,510
  3,781
  4,061
  4,353
  4,657
  4,972
  5,300
  5,641
  5,995
  6,365
  6,750
  7,151
  7,569
  8,005
  8,460
  8,935
  9,432
  9,950
  10,493
  11,060
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,107
  1,234
  1,368
  1,510
  1,659
  1,815
  1,978
  2,149
  2,326
  2,511
  2,593
  2,793
  3,001
  3,216
  3,440
  3,673
  3,916
  4,167
  4,430
  4,703
  4,987
  5,283
  5,592
  5,914
  6,251
  6,602
  6,968
  7,352
  7,752
  8,171
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  132
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,074
  1,198
  1,328
  1,464
  1,608
  1,760
  1,918
  2,084
  2,257
  2,437
  2,625
  2,710
  2,913
  3,124
  3,342
  3,569
  3,805
  4,051
  4,306
  4,572
  4,849
  5,136
  5,436
  5,749
  6,075
  6,416
  6,771
  7,141
  7,530
  7,934
  8,358
Operating income, $m
  114
  152
  194
  240
  287
  338
  390
  445
  503
  563
  625
  800
  868
  938
  1,011
  1,087
  1,166
  1,249
  1,334
  1,424
  1,516
  1,613
  1,714
  1,820
  1,930
  2,045
  2,165
  2,290
  2,421
  2,558
  2,702
EBITDA, $m
  242
  325
  376
  429
  486
  546
  609
  674
  743
  814
  888
  966
  1,046
  1,130
  1,217
  1,307
  1,401
  1,499
  1,601
  1,706
  1,817
  1,932
  2,052
  2,177
  2,307
  2,444
  2,586
  2,735
  2,891
  3,053
  3,224
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  79
  92
  107
  122
  139
  156
  173
  192
  212
  232
  253
  275
  298
  321
  346
  372
  398
  426
  455
  485
  516
  548
  582
  617
  654
  693
  733
  775
  818
  864
Earnings before tax, $m
  38
  73
  102
  133
  165
  199
  235
  272
  311
  351
  394
  547
  593
  640
  690
  741
  795
  851
  909
  969
  1,032
  1,098
  1,166
  1,238
  1,312
  1,390
  1,472
  1,557
  1,646
  1,740
  1,838
Tax expense, $m
  0
  20
  28
  36
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  95
  106
  148
  160
  173
  186
  200
  215
  230
  245
  262
  279
  296
  315
  334
  354
  375
  397
  420
  445
  470
  496
Net income, $m
  38
  53
  74
  97
  120
  145
  171
  199
  227
  257
  287
  399
  433
  467
  504
  541
  580
  621
  663
  707
  753
  801
  851
  903
  958
  1,015
  1,075
  1,137
  1,202
  1,270
  1,342

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,171
  2,463
  2,776
  3,109
  3,459
  3,827
  4,213
  4,616
  5,037
  5,475
  5,931
  6,406
  6,899
  7,411
  7,944
  8,497
  9,073
  9,671
  10,293
  10,941
  11,615
  12,317
  13,049
  13,812
  14,607
  15,438
  16,305
  17,211
  18,158
  19,147
  20,182
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,168
  2,463
  2,776
  3,109
  3,459
  3,827
  4,213
  4,616
  5,037
  5,475
  5,931
  6,406
  6,899
  7,411
  7,944
  8,497
  9,073
  9,671
  10,293
  10,941
  11,615
  12,317
  13,049
  13,812
  14,607
  15,438
  16,305
  17,211
  18,158
  19,147
  20,182
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
Average production assets, $m
  858
  974
  1,099
  1,230
  1,369
  1,514
  1,667
  1,826
  1,993
  2,166
  2,347
  2,534
  2,730
  2,932
  3,143
  3,362
  3,590
  3,826
  4,073
  4,329
  4,595
  4,873
  5,163
  5,465
  5,780
  6,108
  6,451
  6,810
  7,184
  7,576
  7,985
Working capital, $m
  -71
  -84
  -94
  -106
  -118
  -130
  -143
  -157
  -171
  -186
  -202
  -218
  -234
  -252
  -270
  -289
  -308
  -329
  -350
  -372
  -395
  -418
  -443
  -469
  -496
  -525
  -554
  -585
  -617
  -651
  -686
Total debt, $m
  1,272
  1,491
  1,725
  1,973
  2,234
  2,509
  2,797
  3,098
  3,411
  3,738
  4,079
  4,433
  4,800
  5,183
  5,580
  5,993
  6,422
  6,868
  7,333
  7,816
  8,319
  8,842
  9,388
  9,957
  10,551
  11,171
  11,818
  12,494
  13,200
  13,938
  14,710
Total liabilities, $m
  1,618
  1,837
  2,071
  2,319
  2,580
  2,855
  3,143
  3,444
  3,757
  4,084
  4,425
  4,779
  5,146
  5,529
  5,926
  6,339
  6,768
  7,214
  7,679
  8,162
  8,665
  9,188
  9,734
  10,303
  10,897
  11,517
  12,164
  12,840
  13,546
  14,284
  15,056
Total equity, $m
  553
  626
  705
  790
  879
  972
  1,070
  1,172
  1,279
  1,391
  1,507
  1,627
  1,752
  1,882
  2,018
  2,158
  2,304
  2,456
  2,614
  2,779
  2,950
  3,128
  3,314
  3,508
  3,710
  3,921
  4,142
  4,372
  4,612
  4,863
  5,126
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,171
  2,463
  2,776
  3,109
  3,459
  3,827
  4,213
  4,616
  5,036
  5,475
  5,932
  6,406
  6,898
  7,411
  7,944
  8,497
  9,072
  9,670
  10,293
  10,941
  11,615
  12,316
  13,048
  13,811
  14,607
  15,438
  16,306
  17,212
  18,158
  19,147
  20,182
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.300
  2.380
  2.450
  2.500
  2.540
  2.580
  2.610
  2.640
  2.670
  2.690
  2.710
  2.720
  2.740
  2.750
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
  2.800
  2.800
  2.810
  2.820
  2.830
  2.830
  2.840
  2.840
  2.850
  2.850
  2.860
  2.860
  2.870
  2.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254
  0.254

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  38
  53
  74
  97
  120
  145
  171
  199
  227
  257
  287
  399
  433
  467
  504
  541
  580
  621
  663
  707
  753
  801
  851
  903
  958
  1,015
  1,075
  1,137
  1,202
  1,270
  1,342
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  128
  173
  181
  190
  199
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  263
  166
  178
  192
  205
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  319
  337
  357
  378
  399
  422
  445
  470
  495
  522
Funds from operations, $m
  137
  226
  256
  287
  319
  354
  390
  427
  467
  508
  550
  565
  611
  659
  709
  761
  815
  871
  929
  990
  1,054
  1,120
  1,189
  1,261
  1,336
  1,414
  1,496
  1,582
  1,671
  1,765
  1,863
Change in working capital, $m
  -23
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
Cash from operations, $m
  160
  236
  266
  298
  331
  366
  403
  441
  481
  523
  566
  581
  628
  677
  727
  780
  834
  891
  951
  1,012
  1,077
  1,144
  1,214
  1,287
  1,363
  1,442
  1,526
  1,613
  1,704
  1,799
  1,899
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -99
  -109
  -119
  -130
  -142
  -153
  -166
  -178
  -192
  -205
  -220
  -235
  -250
  -266
  -283
  -300
  -319
  -337
  -357
  -378
  -399
  -422
  -445
  -470
  -495
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -267
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -375
  -392
  -409
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -23
  -173
  -188
  -203
  -219
  -235
  -252
  -269
  -285
  -303
  -322
  -341
  -361
  -381
  -403
  -424
  -448
  -472
  -496
  -522
  -550
  -578
  -609
  -639
  -672
  -707
  -742
  -780
  -820
  -862
  -904
Free cash flow, $m
  137
  63
  79
  95
  112
  131
  151
  173
  195
  219
  244
  240
  267
  295
  325
  355
  387
  420
  454
  490
  527
  565
  606
  647
  691
  736
  783
  833
  884
  938
  994
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  219
  234
  248
  261
  275
  288
  301
  314
  327
  340
  354
  368
  382
  397
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  503
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  706
  738
  772
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  22
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  241
  239
  248
  261
  275
  288
  301
  314
  327
  340
  354
  368
  382
  397
  413
  429
  446
  464
  483
  503
  524
  546
  569
  594
  620
  647
  676
  706
  738
  772
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  182
  305
  318
  343
  374
  406
  439
  473
  509
  546
  584
  594
  635
  678
  722
  768
  816
  866
  918
  973
  1,030
  1,089
  1,151
  1,216
  1,284
  1,356
  1,430
  1,508
  1,590
  1,676
  1,766
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  155
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -251
  -263
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  232
  238
  258
  285
  312
  341
  371
  402
  435
  468
  473
  510
  548
  587
  628
  670
  714
  760
  808
  859
  911
  966
  1,023
  1,082
  1,145
  1,210
  1,278
  1,350
  1,425
  1,503
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  211
  194
  186
  181
  172
  161
  149
  135
  120
  105
  85
  71
  59
  48
  38
  29
  22
  16
  12
  8
  5
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.5
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. is a marketer and distributor of a range of products. The Company specializes in the distribution of propane, fuel oil and refined fuels, as well as the marketing of natural gas and electricity in deregulated markets. The Company's segments include Propane, Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels, Natural Gas and Electricity, and All Other. In support of its marketing and distribution operations, the Company installs and services a range of home comfort equipment, particularly in the areas of heating and ventilation. The Company conducts its business through Suburban Propane, L.P., which operates its propane business and assets (the Operating Partnership), and its direct and indirect subsidiaries. As of September 24, 2016, it had sold approximately 414.8 million gallons of propane and 30.9 million gallons of fuel oil and refined fuels to retail customers. The Company owns and operates a propane storage facility in Elk Grove, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Suburban Propane Partners (SPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 38.6
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 13.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 230%
Total Debt to Equity 230%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Total Capital 2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.3%
EBITDA Margin 20.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Operating Margin 9.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Payout Ratio 571.1%

SPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1188 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Suburban Propane Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Suburban Propane Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for SPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Suburban Propane Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Suburban Propane Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $89 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Suburban Propane Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Suburban Propane Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPH are equal to 72.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Suburban Propane Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPH is equal to -6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $553 million for Suburban Propane Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.868 million for Suburban Propane Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Suburban Propane Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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Financial statements of SPH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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