Intrinsic value of Suburban Propane Partners - SPH

Previous Close

$23.65

  Intrinsic Value

$30.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+28%

  Value-price divergence*

+111%

Previous close

$23.65

 
Intrinsic value

$30.38

 
Up/down potential

+28%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+111%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -26.18
  11.60
  10.94
  10.35
  9.81
  9.33
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
Revenue, $m
  1,046
  1,167
  1,295
  1,429
  1,569
  1,716
  1,868
  2,027
  2,193
  2,365
  2,543
  2,729
  2,922
  3,122
  3,331
  3,548
  3,773
  4,008
  4,253
  4,507
  4,773
  5,050
  5,339
  5,641
  5,956
  6,285
  6,629
  6,988
  7,365
  7,758
  8,170
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  925
  1,014
  1,107
  1,205
  1,308
  1,414
  1,525
  1,641
  1,761
  1,885
  1,906
  2,040
  2,180
  2,326
  2,477
  2,635
  2,799
  2,970
  3,148
  3,333
  3,526
  3,728
  3,939
  4,159
  4,389
  4,629
  4,880
  5,143
  5,418
  5,706
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
Total operating expenses, $m
  956
  1,047
  1,139
  1,235
  1,336
  1,443
  1,552
  1,666
  1,786
  1,910
  2,037
  2,062
  2,200
  2,344
  2,494
  2,649
  2,812
  2,980
  3,156
  3,338
  3,528
  3,726
  3,933
  4,149
  4,374
  4,610
  4,855
  5,112
  5,381
  5,662
  5,956
Operating income, $m
  90
  121
  156
  193
  233
  273
  316
  361
  407
  455
  505
  667
  721
  778
  837
  898
  962
  1,028
  1,097
  1,170
  1,245
  1,324
  1,406
  1,492
  1,581
  1,675
  1,774
  1,877
  1,984
  2,097
  2,215
EBITDA, $m
  220
  283
  325
  368
  413
  461
  511
  562
  616
  672
  731
  791
  854
  920
  988
  1,059
  1,133
  1,210
  1,291
  1,374
  1,462
  1,553
  1,648
  1,748
  1,852
  1,961
  2,075
  2,194
  2,319
  2,450
  2,587
Interest expense (income), $m
  74
  74
  84
  96
  108
  121
  134
  148
  162
  177
  192
  209
  225
  243
  261
  280
  299
  320
  341
  363
  386
  410
  435
  461
  488
  517
  546
  577
  610
  644
  679
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  47
  72
  98
  125
  153
  182
  213
  245
  278
  313
  459
  496
  535
  576
  618
  662
  708
  757
  807
  859
  914
  971
  1,031
  1,093
  1,159
  1,227
  1,299
  1,374
  1,453
  1,536
Tax expense, $m
  1
  13
  19
  26
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  75
  84
  124
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  218
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  313
  331
  351
  371
  392
  415
Net income, $m
  14
  34
  52
  71
  91
  112
  133
  155
  179
  203
  228
  335
  362
  391
  420
  451
  484
  517
  552
  589
  627
  667
  709
  752
  798
  846
  896
  948
  1,003
  1,061
  1,121

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,282
  2,505
  2,779
  3,067
  3,367
  3,682
  4,009
  4,350
  4,705
  5,074
  5,458
  5,856
  6,270
  6,700
  7,148
  7,613
  8,097
  8,601
  9,126
  9,673
  10,243
  10,837
  11,457
  12,104
  12,780
  13,487
  14,225
  14,997
  15,804
  16,649
  17,533
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,245
  2,505
  2,779
  3,067
  3,367
  3,682
  4,009
  4,350
  4,705
  5,074
  5,458
  5,856
  6,270
  6,700
  7,148
  7,613
  8,097
  8,601
  9,126
  9,673
  10,243
  10,837
  11,457
  12,104
  12,780
  13,487
  14,225
  14,997
  15,804
  16,649
  17,533
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
  0.466
Average production assets, $m
  628
  700
  777
  857
  942
  1,029
  1,121
  1,216
  1,316
  1,419
  1,526
  1,637
  1,753
  1,873
  1,999
  2,129
  2,264
  2,405
  2,552
  2,704
  2,864
  3,030
  3,203
  3,384
  3,573
  3,771
  3,977
  4,193
  4,419
  4,655
  4,902
Working capital, $m
  -58
  -106
  -118
  -130
  -143
  -156
  -170
  -184
  -200
  -215
  -231
  -248
  -266
  -284
  -303
  -323
  -343
  -365
  -387
  -410
  -434
  -460
  -486
  -513
  -542
  -572
  -603
  -636
  -670
  -706
  -744
Total debt, $m
  1,225
  1,407
  1,599
  1,801
  2,012
  2,232
  2,461
  2,701
  2,949
  3,208
  3,477
  3,756
  4,046
  4,348
  4,662
  4,988
  5,327
  5,680
  6,048
  6,432
  6,831
  7,248
  7,682
  8,136
  8,610
  9,105
  9,623
  10,164
  10,730
  11,322
  11,942
Total liabilities, $m
  1,574
  1,756
  1,948
  2,150
  2,361
  2,581
  2,810
  3,050
  3,298
  3,557
  3,826
  4,105
  4,395
  4,697
  5,011
  5,337
  5,676
  6,029
  6,397
  6,781
  7,180
  7,597
  8,031
  8,485
  8,959
  9,454
  9,972
  10,513
  11,079
  11,671
  12,291
Total equity, $m
  708
  749
  831
  917
  1,007
  1,101
  1,199
  1,301
  1,407
  1,517
  1,632
  1,751
  1,875
  2,003
  2,137
  2,276
  2,421
  2,572
  2,729
  2,892
  3,063
  3,240
  3,426
  3,619
  3,821
  4,032
  4,253
  4,484
  4,725
  4,978
  5,242
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,282
  2,505
  2,779
  3,067
  3,368
  3,682
  4,009
  4,351
  4,705
  5,074
  5,458
  5,856
  6,270
  6,700
  7,148
  7,613
  8,097
  8,601
  9,126
  9,673
  10,243
  10,837
  11,457
  12,104
  12,780
  13,486
  14,225
  14,997
  15,804
  16,649
  17,533
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.730
  1.880
  1.920
  1.960
  2.000
  2.030
  2.050
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.150
  2.160
  2.170
  2.180
  2.190
  2.200
  2.210
  2.220
  2.220
  2.230
  2.240
  2.240
  2.250
  2.250
  2.260
  2.260
  2.270
  2.270
  2.270
  2.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299
  0.299

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  34
  52
  71
  91
  112
  133
  155
  179
  203
  228
  335
  362
  391
  420
  451
  484
  517
  552
  589
  627
  667
  709
  752
  798
  846
  896
  948
  1,003
  1,061
  1,121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  130
  163
  168
  174
  181
  187
  194
  202
  209
  217
  225
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  172
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  243
  256
  271
  286
  301
  318
  335
  353
  371
Funds from operations, $m
  169
  197
  221
  246
  272
  299
  327
  357
  388
  420
  454
  459
  495
  533
  572
  613
  655
  699
  746
  794
  844
  897
  951
  1,009
  1,069
  1,132
  1,197
  1,266
  1,338
  1,414
  1,493
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
Cash from operations, $m
  157
  208
  232
  258
  284
  312
  341
  372
  403
  436
  470
  476
  513
  551
  591
  632
  676
  721
  768
  817
  868
  922
  978
  1,036
  1,097
  1,162
  1,229
  1,299
  1,372
  1,449
  1,530
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -107
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -353
New CAPEX, $m
  -38
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -236
  -247
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -54
  -121
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -313
  -329
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -403
  -424
  -445
  -468
  -492
  -517
  -544
  -571
  -600
Free cash flow, $m
  103
  88
  103
  119
  135
  153
  172
  191
  212
  233
  255
  249
  273
  298
  324
  351
  379
  408
  439
  471
  504
  539
  575
  613
  652
  693
  737
  782
  829
  878
  930
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  182
  192
  202
  211
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  368
  383
  399
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  44
  30
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -2
  226
  222
  217
  211
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  339
  353
  368
  383
  399
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  313
  324
  335
  346
  373
  401
  430
  460
  492
  524
  528
  563
  599
  637
  677
  718
  762
  807
  854
  903
  955
  1,010
  1,066
  1,126
  1,188
  1,254
  1,323
  1,395
  1,471
  1,550
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  190
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -231
  -241
  -253
  -264
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  37
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  272
  242
  249
  256
  279
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  409
  439
  471
  504
  538
  574
  611
  650
  691
  733
  778
  824
  873
  924
  977
  1,033
  1,092
  1,153
  1,218
  1,286
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  248
  199
  183
  167
  159
  150
  138
  126
  113
  99
  80
  68
  57
  47
  38
  30
  23
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  96.9
  95.1
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3

Suburban Propane Partners, L.P., through its subsidiaries, engages in the retail marketing and distribution of propane, fuel oil, and refined fuels. Its Propane segment is involved in the retail distribution of propane to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers, as well as in the wholesale distribution to industrial end users. This segment offers propane primarily for space heating, water heating, cooking, and clothes drying in the residential and commercial markets; for use as a motor fuel in internal combustion engines to power over-the-road vehicles, forklifts, and stationary engines, as well as to fire furnaces and as a cutting gas to the industrial customers; and for tobacco curing, crop drying, poultry brooding, and weed control in the agricultural markets. The company’s Fuel Oil and Refined Fuels segment engages in the retail distribution of fuel oil, diesel, kerosene, and gasoline to residential and commercial customers for use primarily as a source of heat in homes and buildings. Its Natural Gas and Electricity segment markets natural gas and electricity to residential and commercial customers in the deregulated energy markets in New York and Pennsylvania. The company also sells, installs, and services a range of home comfort equipment, including whole-house heating products, air cleaners, humidifiers, and space heaters. As of September 24, 2016, it served approximately 1.1 million residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers through 675 locations in 41 states primarily in the east and west coast regions of the United States, as well as portions of the midwest region of the United States and Alaska. Suburban Energy Services Group LLC serves as a general partner of Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 1945 and is based in Whippany, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Suburban Propane Partners (SPH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 102.7
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 173%
Total Debt to Equity 173%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Total Capital 0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Equity 1.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 55.9%
EBITDA Margin 20.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.5%
Operating Margin 8.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Net Profit Margin 1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 6.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Payout Ratio 1542.9%

SPH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1046 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Suburban Propane Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Suburban Propane Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for SPH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Suburban Propane Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Suburban Propane Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $119 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Suburban Propane Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Suburban Propane Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPH are equal to 60%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Suburban Propane Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPH is equal to -9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $708 million for Suburban Propane Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61.728 million for Suburban Propane Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Suburban Propane Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Stock chart of SPH Financial statements of SPH
Valuation of Stocks

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