Intrinsic value of Steel Partners Holdings - SPLP

Previous Close

$18.84

  Intrinsic Value

$111.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+490%

Previous close

$18.84

 
Intrinsic value

$111.17

 
Up/down potential

+490%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SPLP.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.62
  27.40
  25.16
  23.14
  21.33
  19.70
  18.23
  16.90
  15.71
  14.64
  13.68
  12.81
  12.03
  11.33
  10.69
  10.12
  9.61
  9.15
  8.74
  8.36
  8.03
  7.72
  7.45
  7.21
  6.99
  6.79
  6.61
  6.45
  6.30
  6.17
  6.06
Revenue, $m
  1,164
  1,483
  1,856
  2,286
  2,773
  3,319
  3,924
  4,588
  5,309
  6,086
  6,918
  7,805
  8,744
  9,734
  10,775
  11,866
  13,006
  14,196
  15,436
  16,727
  18,070
  19,465
  20,916
  22,423
  23,989
  25,617
  27,310
  29,071
  30,903
  32,811
  34,797
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,426
  1,781
  2,190
  2,653
  3,172
  3,747
  4,378
  5,063
  5,802
  6,594
  7,420
  8,312
  9,254
  10,243
  11,280
  12,364
  13,496
  14,675
  15,902
  17,178
  18,505
  19,884
  21,316
  22,805
  24,353
  25,962
  27,636
  29,378
  31,191
  33,080
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,126
  1,429
  1,784
  2,193
  2,656
  3,175
  3,750
  4,382
  5,067
  5,806
  6,598
  7,424
  8,316
  9,258
  10,247
  11,284
  12,368
  13,501
  14,680
  15,907
  17,183
  18,510
  19,889
  21,321
  22,810
  24,359
  25,968
  27,642
  29,384
  31,197
  33,086
Operating income, $m
  38
  53
  72
  93
  117
  144
  173
  206
  242
  280
  321
  381
  427
  476
  527
  581
  637
  696
  757
  821
  887
  956
  1,027
  1,101
  1,178
  1,259
  1,342
  1,429
  1,519
  1,613
  1,711
EBITDA, $m
  109
  140
  176
  217
  264
  316
  374
  438
  507
  582
  662
  747
  838
  933
  1,033
  1,138
  1,248
  1,362
  1,481
  1,605
  1,734
  1,869
  2,008
  2,153
  2,304
  2,460
  2,623
  2,793
  2,969
  3,152
  3,343
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  13
  25
  41
  59
  80
  104
  130
  158
  189
  223
  258
  296
  337
  379
  424
  471
  520
  571
  624
  680
  737
  797
  860
  924
  992
  1,062
  1,134
  1,210
  1,289
  1,371
Earnings before tax, $m
  22
  41
  47
  52
  58
  63
  70
  76
  83
  91
  98
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  241
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  324
  340
Tax expense, $m
  24
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  27
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  88
  92
Net income, $m
  7
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
  248

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  504
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,967
  1,863
  2,332
  2,871
  3,484
  4,170
  4,930
  5,763
  6,669
  7,646
  8,691
  9,805
  10,984
  12,228
  13,536
  14,907
  16,339
  17,835
  19,393
  21,014
  22,701
  24,454
  26,276
  28,169
  30,137
  32,183
  34,309
  36,521
  38,823
  41,219
  43,715
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,463
  1,863
  2,332
  2,871
  3,484
  4,170
  4,930
  5,763
  6,669
  7,646
  8,691
  9,805
  10,984
  12,228
  13,536
  14,907
  16,339
  17,835
  19,393
  21,014
  22,701
  24,454
  26,276
  28,169
  30,137
  32,183
  34,309
  36,521
  38,823
  41,219
  43,715
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
  0.796
Average production assets, $m
  442
  564
  705
  869
  1,054
  1,261
  1,491
  1,743
  2,017
  2,313
  2,629
  2,966
  3,323
  3,699
  4,094
  4,509
  4,942
  5,395
  5,866
  6,356
  6,867
  7,397
  7,948
  8,521
  9,116
  9,735
  10,378
  11,047
  11,743
  12,468
  13,223
Working capital, $m
  450
  13
  17
  21
  25
  30
  35
  41
  48
  55
  62
  70
  79
  88
  97
  107
  117
  128
  139
  151
  163
  175
  188
  202
  216
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  313
Total debt, $m
  394
  653
  1,075
  1,560
  2,111
  2,729
  3,413
  4,163
  4,978
  5,857
  6,798
  7,800
  8,862
  9,982
  11,159
  12,392
  13,681
  15,027
  16,429
  17,889
  19,407
  20,985
  22,624
  24,329
  26,099
  27,940
  29,854
  31,845
  33,917
  36,073
  38,320
Total liabilities, $m
  1,418
  1,677
  2,099
  2,584
  3,135
  3,753
  4,437
  5,187
  6,002
  6,881
  7,822
  8,824
  9,886
  11,006
  12,183
  13,416
  14,705
  16,051
  17,453
  18,913
  20,431
  22,009
  23,648
  25,353
  27,123
  28,964
  30,878
  32,869
  34,941
  37,097
  39,344
Total equity, $m
  549
  186
  233
  287
  348
  417
  493
  576
  667
  765
  869
  980
  1,098
  1,223
  1,354
  1,491
  1,634
  1,783
  1,939
  2,101
  2,270
  2,445
  2,628
  2,817
  3,014
  3,218
  3,431
  3,652
  3,882
  4,122
  4,372
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,967
  1,863
  2,332
  2,871
  3,483
  4,170
  4,930
  5,763
  6,669
  7,646
  8,691
  9,804
  10,984
  12,229
  13,537
  14,907
  16,339
  17,834
  19,392
  21,014
  22,701
  24,454
  26,276
  28,170
  30,137
  32,182
  34,309
  36,521
  38,823
  41,219
  43,716
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.718
  3.500
  4.610
  5.430
  6.060
  6.540
  6.920
  7.220
  7.460
  7.660
  7.820
  7.960
  8.070
  8.160
  8.240
  8.310
  8.370
  8.430
  8.470
  8.510
  8.550
  8.580
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.031
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  30
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  56
  61
  66
  72
  90
  96
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  136
  143
  151
  159
  168
  176
  185
  195
  205
  215
  225
  237
  248
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  71
  86
  104
  124
  147
  172
  201
  232
  266
  302
  341
  366
  410
  457
  505
  557
  610
  666
  724
  785
  848
  913
  981
  1,052
  1,125
  1,202
  1,281
  1,364
  1,450
  1,539
  1,632
Funds from operations, $m
  266
  116
  138
  162
  189
  219
  252
  288
  327
  368
  413
  456
  506
  558
  614
  671
  732
  795
  860
  928
  999
  1,072
  1,149
  1,228
  1,311
  1,397
  1,486
  1,579
  1,675
  1,776
  1,881
Change in working capital, $m
  71
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
Cash from operations, $m
  195
  113
  135
  158
  184
  214
  246
  282
  320
  361
  406
  448
  497
  550
  604
  662
  721
  784
  849
  916
  987
  1,060
  1,136
  1,215
  1,297
  1,382
  1,471
  1,563
  1,659
  1,759
  1,863
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -70
  -87
  -107
  -130
  -156
  -184
  -215
  -249
  -286
  -325
  -366
  -410
  -457
  -505
  -557
  -610
  -666
  -724
  -785
  -848
  -913
  -981
  -1,052
  -1,125
  -1,202
  -1,281
  -1,364
  -1,450
  -1,539
New CAPEX, $m
  -34
  -122
  -142
  -163
  -185
  -208
  -230
  -252
  -274
  -295
  -316
  -337
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -415
  -433
  -452
  -471
  -491
  -510
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -595
  -619
  -643
  -669
  -696
  -725
  -755
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -161
  -177
  -212
  -250
  -292
  -338
  -386
  -436
  -489
  -544
  -602
  -662
  -723
  -786
  -853
  -920
  -990
  -1,062
  -1,137
  -1,215
  -1,295
  -1,378
  -1,464
  -1,554
  -1,647
  -1,744
  -1,845
  -1,950
  -2,060
  -2,175
  -2,294
Free cash flow, $m
  34
  -63
  -77
  -92
  -108
  -124
  -139
  -154
  -169
  -183
  -196
  -213
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -279
  -288
  -298
  -308
  -318
  -329
  -339
  -350
  -362
  -375
  -388
  -401
  -416
  -431
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  147
  323
  422
  486
  551
  618
  684
  750
  815
  879
  941
  1,002
  1,062
  1,120
  1,177
  1,233
  1,290
  1,346
  1,402
  1,459
  1,518
  1,578
  1,640
  1,704
  1,771
  1,841
  1,914
  1,991
  2,072
  2,157
  2,246
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -28
  47
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  30
  31
  33
  22
  22
  23
  23
  22
  22
  21
  20
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  1
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  231
  370
  435
  502
  570
  640
  709
  778
  845
  910
  974
  1,024
  1,084
  1,143
  1,200
  1,255
  1,312
  1,367
  1,422
  1,478
  1,536
  1,594
  1,655
  1,717
  1,782
  1,851
  1,922
  1,997
  2,077
  2,160
  2,247
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  264
  307
  358
  409
  462
  516
  570
  623
  676
  727
  778
  810
  858
  905
  952
  997
  1,043
  1,088
  1,134
  1,180
  1,227
  1,276
  1,326
  1,378
  1,432
  1,488
  1,548
  1,610
  1,675
  1,744
  1,816
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  9
  -77
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  440
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  670
  311
  355
  401
  447
  494
  540
  585
  630
  673
  699
  740
  781
  821
  860
  899
  939
  978
  1,018
  1,059
  1,101
  1,144
  1,189
  1,235
  1,284
  1,335
  1,388
  1,445
  1,504
  1,567
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  642
  285
  309
  330
  347
  358
  365
  366
  362
  353
  332
  316
  297
  276
  253
  229
  204
  180
  157
  135
  114
  95
  78
  63
  50
  39
  30
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  67.2
  62.5
  58.0
  54.0
  50.4
  47.2
  44.4
  42.0
  39.9
  38.1
  37.0
  36.1
  35.3
  34.6
  34.0
  33.4
  32.9
  32.5
  32.2
  31.9
  31.6
  31.4
  31.2
  31.1
  31.0
  30.9
  30.8
  30.8
  30.8
  30.8

Steel Partners Holdings L.P. (SPLP) is a diversified holding company that engages in multiple businesses through consolidated subsidiaries, associated companies and other interests. The Company owns and operates businesses, and has investments in companies, in various industries, including diversified industrial products, energy, defense, supply chain management and logistics, banking and youth sports. The Company's segments are Diversified Industrial, Energy, Financial Services, and Corporate and Other. The Diversified Industrial segment consists of its Handy & Harman Ltd. (HNH) and WebFinancial Holding LLC (WFH LLC). The Company's Energy Segment includes the operations of Steel Excel, Inc. (Steel Excel). The Financial Services segment consists of the Company's subsidiary, WebFinancial Corporation (WFHC), which conducts financial operations through its subsidiary, WebBank, and WF Asset Corp.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Steel Partners Holdings (SPLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 70.4
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 20.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 47.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 8
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 60.1%
Total Debt to Equity 71.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Return On Equity 1.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
EBITDA Margin 9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Effective Tax Rate 109.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -46.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1164 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Steel Partners Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Steel Partners Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SPLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Steel Partners Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Steel Partners Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Steel Partners Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Steel Partners Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPLP are equal to 38%.

Life of production assets of 8.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Steel Partners Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPLP is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $549 million for Steel Partners Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.024 million for Steel Partners Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Steel Partners Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Steel Partners reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steel Partners reports 4Q loss   [Mar-14-17 05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge fund Steel Partners launching $500 mln fund   [Jan-24-17 01:10PM  Reuters]
▶ Handy & Harman Ltd. Acquires ElectroMagnetic Enterprise   [Oct-03-16 09:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SPLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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