Intrinsic value of Staples - SPLS

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$9.83

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$9.83

 
Intrinsic value

$12.55

 
Up/down potential

+28%

 
Rating

buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPLS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.76
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  18,247
  18,612
  19,040
  19,529
  20,079
  20,687
  21,355
  22,083
  22,870
  23,718
  24,628
  25,602
  26,641
  27,747
  28,923
  30,171
  31,493
  32,893
  34,373
  35,937
  37,588
  39,330
  41,168
  43,104
  45,145
  47,294
  49,557
  51,939
  54,445
  57,082
  59,855
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  17,902
  18,311
  18,778
  19,303
  19,884
  20,522
  21,216
  21,968
  22,778
  23,647
  24,448
  25,440
  26,497
  27,620
  28,811
  30,074
  31,410
  32,824
  34,317
  35,894
  37,558
  39,312
  41,162
  43,110
  45,163
  47,323
  49,598
  51,991
  54,509
  57,158
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  18,537
  17,902
  18,311
  18,778
  19,303
  19,884
  20,522
  21,216
  21,968
  22,778
  23,647
  24,448
  25,440
  26,497
  27,620
  28,811
  30,074
  31,410
  32,824
  34,317
  35,894
  37,558
  39,312
  41,162
  43,110
  45,163
  47,323
  49,598
  51,991
  54,509
  57,158
Operating income, $m
  -290
  710
  729
  751
  776
  803
  833
  866
  902
  940
  981
  1,154
  1,201
  1,251
  1,304
  1,360
  1,419
  1,482
  1,549
  1,620
  1,694
  1,773
  1,855
  1,943
  2,035
  2,132
  2,234
  2,341
  2,454
  2,573
  2,698
EBITDA, $m
  146
  1,046
  1,070
  1,097
  1,128
  1,163
  1,200
  1,241
  1,285
  1,333
  1,384
  1,439
  1,497
  1,559
  1,625
  1,695
  1,770
  1,848
  1,932
  2,020
  2,112
  2,210
  2,313
  2,422
  2,537
  2,658
  2,785
  2,919
  3,060
  3,208
  3,364
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  22
  25
  29
  33
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  72
  80
  89
  98
  109
  119
  131
  143
  156
  169
  183
  198
  214
  231
  249
  268
  287
  308
  330
  352
  377
Earnings before tax, $m
  -352
  688
  704
  722
  742
  765
  789
  816
  845
  876
  909
  1,074
  1,112
  1,152
  1,195
  1,240
  1,289
  1,340
  1,394
  1,451
  1,511
  1,574
  1,641
  1,712
  1,786
  1,864
  1,946
  2,033
  2,124
  2,220
  2,321
Tax expense, $m
  107
  186
  190
  195
  200
  207
  213
  220
  228
  237
  245
  290
  300
  311
  323
  335
  348
  362
  376
  392
  408
  425
  443
  462
  482
  503
  526
  549
  574
  599
  627
Net income, $m
  -1,497
  502
  514
  527
  542
  558
  576
  596
  617
  639
  664
  784
  812
  841
  872
  906
  941
  978
  1,017
  1,059
  1,103
  1,149
  1,198
  1,249
  1,304
  1,361
  1,421
  1,484
  1,551
  1,621
  1,694

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,137
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,271
  7,276
  7,443
  7,635
  7,849
  8,087
  8,348
  8,633
  8,941
  9,272
  9,628
  10,009
  10,415
  10,847
  11,307
  11,795
  12,312
  12,859
  13,437
  14,049
  14,694
  15,375
  16,094
  16,851
  17,649
  18,489
  19,373
  20,304
  21,284
  22,315
  23,399
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,134
  7,276
  7,443
  7,635
  7,849
  8,087
  8,348
  8,633
  8,941
  9,272
  9,628
  10,009
  10,415
  10,847
  11,307
  11,795
  12,312
  12,859
  13,437
  14,049
  14,694
  15,375
  16,094
  16,851
  17,649
  18,489
  19,373
  20,304
  21,284
  22,315
  23,399
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
  2.558
Average production assets, $m
  1,437
  1,470
  1,504
  1,543
  1,586
  1,634
  1,687
  1,745
  1,807
  1,874
  1,946
  2,023
  2,105
  2,192
  2,285
  2,384
  2,488
  2,599
  2,715
  2,839
  2,969
  3,107
  3,252
  3,405
  3,566
  3,736
  3,915
  4,103
  4,301
  4,509
  4,729
Working capital, $m
  1,581
  986
  1,009
  1,035
  1,064
  1,096
  1,132
  1,170
  1,212
  1,257
  1,305
  1,357
  1,412
  1,471
  1,533
  1,599
  1,669
  1,743
  1,822
  1,905
  1,992
  2,084
  2,182
  2,285
  2,393
  2,507
  2,627
  2,753
  2,886
  3,025
  3,172
Total debt, $m
  1,048
  612
  708
  817
  939
  1,075
  1,224
  1,386
  1,561
  1,750
  1,953
  2,170
  2,401
  2,648
  2,910
  3,188
  3,483
  3,794
  4,124
  4,473
  4,841
  5,229
  5,638
  6,070
  6,525
  7,004
  7,508
  8,039
  8,597
  9,185
  9,803
Total liabilities, $m
  4,583
  4,147
  4,243
  4,352
  4,474
  4,610
  4,759
  4,921
  5,096
  5,285
  5,488
  5,705
  5,936
  6,183
  6,445
  6,723
  7,018
  7,329
  7,659
  8,008
  8,376
  8,764
  9,173
  9,605
  10,060
  10,539
  11,043
  11,574
  12,132
  12,720
  13,338
Total equity, $m
  3,688
  3,129
  3,201
  3,283
  3,375
  3,478
  3,590
  3,712
  3,844
  3,987
  4,140
  4,304
  4,478
  4,664
  4,862
  5,072
  5,294
  5,529
  5,778
  6,041
  6,319
  6,611
  6,920
  7,246
  7,589
  7,950
  8,331
  8,731
  9,152
  9,595
  10,062
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,271
  7,276
  7,444
  7,635
  7,849
  8,088
  8,349
  8,633
  8,940
  9,272
  9,628
  10,009
  10,414
  10,847
  11,307
  11,795
  12,312
  12,858
  13,437
  14,049
  14,695
  15,375
  16,093
  16,851
  17,649
  18,489
  19,374
  20,305
  21,284
  22,315
  23,400
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.284
  0.200
  0.220
  0.250
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.500
  0.540
  0.570
  0.600
  0.630
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.740
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.358
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430
  0.430

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1,497
  502
  514
  527
  542
  558
  576
  596
  617
  639
  664
  784
  812
  841
  872
  906
  941
  978
  1,017
  1,059
  1,103
  1,149
  1,198
  1,249
  1,304
  1,361
  1,421
  1,484
  1,551
  1,621
  1,694
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  436
  336
  341
  346
  352
  359
  367
  375
  383
  393
  403
  285
  296
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  551
  578
  606
  635
  666
Funds from operations, $m
  858
  838
  855
  873
  894
  918
  943
  970
  1,000
  1,032
  1,067
  1,069
  1,108
  1,150
  1,194
  1,241
  1,291
  1,344
  1,400
  1,459
  1,521
  1,587
  1,656
  1,729
  1,806
  1,887
  1,972
  2,062
  2,156
  2,256
  2,360
Change in working capital, $m
  -76
  19
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
Cash from operations, $m
  934
  735
  832
  848
  865
  885
  907
  932
  959
  987
  1,019
  1,017
  1,053
  1,091
  1,132
  1,175
  1,221
  1,270
  1,321
  1,376
  1,434
  1,494
  1,559
  1,626
  1,698
  1,773
  1,852
  1,936
  2,024
  2,116
  2,213
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -202
  -207
  -212
  -217
  -223
  -230
  -238
  -246
  -254
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -309
  -322
  -336
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -400
  -418
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -502
  -526
  -551
  -578
  -606
  -635
New CAPEX, $m
  -255
  -34
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -208
  -219
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -311
  -236
  -241
  -251
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -440
  -461
  -483
  -506
  -530
  -556
  -583
  -611
  -641
  -672
  -705
  -739
  -776
  -814
  -854
Free cash flow, $m
  623
  498
  591
  597
  605
  614
  625
  637
  651
  666
  683
  666
  686
  707
  730
  755
  781
  809
  838
  870
  903
  939
  976
  1,015
  1,057
  1,101
  1,147
  1,196
  1,248
  1,302
  1,359
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -24
  83
  95
  109
  122
  136
  149
  162
  175
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  348
  368
  388
  409
  432
  455
  479
  504
  531
  558
  588
  618
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  83
  95
  109
  122
  136
  149
  162
  175
  189
  203
  217
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  312
  330
  348
  368
  388
  409
  432
  455
  479
  504
  531
  558
  588
  618
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  623
  582
  687
  706
  727
  749
  773
  799
  826
  855
  886
  883
  918
  954
  992
  1,033
  1,076
  1,121
  1,168
  1,218
  1,271
  1,327
  1,385
  1,447
  1,512
  1,580
  1,652
  1,727
  1,806
  1,890
  1,977
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1,688
  -59
  -72
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -112
  -122
  -132
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -210
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -263
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -326
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -400
  -421
  -443
  -466
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  618
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,141
  615
  624
  635
  647
  661
  677
  694
  712
  733
  719
  743
  768
  795
  823
  853
  885
  919
  955
  994
  1,034
  1,076
  1,121
  1,169
  1,219
  1,271
  1,327
  1,385
  1,446
  1,511
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,094
  563
  543
  523
  502
  480
  457
  434
  409
  384
  342
  317
  292
  267
  242
  217
  193
  169
  147
  126
  107
  89
  73
  60
  47
  37
  28
  21
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Staples, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates office products superstores. It operates in three segments: North American Stores & Online, North American Commercial, and International Operations. The company offers a range of office supplies, business technology products, facility and breakroom supplies, computers and mobility products, and office furniture under the Staples, Quill, and other proprietary brands. It also provides copy and print services, as well as technology services. The company sells and delivers office products and services directly to businesses and consumers through its Staples.com and Staples.ca, and Quill.com Websites, as well as through retail stores, and Internet and direct mail catalogs. As of January 30, 2016, it operated approximately 1,907 retail stores; and 104 distribution and fulfillment centers in the United States and internationally. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in Framingham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Staples (SPLS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 14.3%
Total Debt to Equity 28.4%
Interest Coverage -7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -15.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.3%
Return On Total Capital -26.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.3%
Return On Equity -33%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.9%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.9%
EBITDA Margin 0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin -1.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Net Profit Margin -8.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Effective Tax Rate -30.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Payout Ratio -20.8%

SPLS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPLS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $18247 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Staples. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Staples. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPLS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SPLS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Staples, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Staples.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPLS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPLS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Staples.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Staples. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPLS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPLS are equal to 7.9%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Staples operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPLS is equal to 5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3688 million for Staples - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 654.504 million for Staples is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Staples at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.


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Stock chart of SPLS Financial statements of SPLS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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