Intrinsic value of SpartanNash - SPTN

Previous Close

$22.34

  Intrinsic Value

$28.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+26%

Previous close

$22.34

 
Intrinsic value

$28.05

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.08
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.05
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
Revenue, $m
  7,735
  8,021
  8,328
  8,657
  9,008
  9,382
  9,779
  10,200
  10,647
  11,119
  11,619
  12,148
  12,705
  13,294
  13,915
  14,569
  15,259
  15,985
  16,749
  17,554
  18,401
  19,292
  20,229
  21,215
  22,251
  23,340
  24,486
  25,689
  26,954
  28,284
  29,681
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,892
  8,193
  8,515
  8,858
  9,225
  9,614
  10,026
  10,464
  10,927
  11,417
  11,902
  12,449
  13,026
  13,634
  14,275
  14,951
  15,662
  16,411
  17,200
  18,030
  18,903
  19,821
  20,787
  21,802
  22,869
  23,992
  25,171
  26,411
  27,713
  29,082
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  7,626
  7,892
  8,193
  8,515
  8,858
  9,225
  9,614
  10,026
  10,464
  10,927
  11,417
  11,902
  12,449
  13,026
  13,634
  14,275
  14,951
  15,662
  16,411
  17,200
  18,030
  18,903
  19,821
  20,787
  21,802
  22,869
  23,992
  25,171
  26,411
  27,713
  29,082
Operating income, $m
  109
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  183
  192
  202
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  518
  544
  571
  599
EBITDA, $m
  188
  215
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  298
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  492
  516
  541
  568
  595
  625
  655
  687
  721
  757
  794
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  211
  220
  229
  239
  249
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  421
  441
  461
  483
Tax expense, $m
  33
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
Net income, $m
  57
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  154
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  206
  216
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,930
  1,977
  2,052
  2,133
  2,220
  2,312
  2,410
  2,514
  2,624
  2,740
  2,863
  2,993
  3,131
  3,276
  3,429
  3,590
  3,760
  3,939
  4,127
  4,326
  4,534
  4,754
  4,985
  5,228
  5,483
  5,752
  6,034
  6,331
  6,642
  6,970
  7,314
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,906
  1,977
  2,052
  2,133
  2,220
  2,312
  2,410
  2,514
  2,624
  2,740
  2,863
  2,993
  3,131
  3,276
  3,429
  3,590
  3,760
  3,939
  4,127
  4,326
  4,534
  4,754
  4,985
  5,228
  5,483
  5,752
  6,034
  6,331
  6,642
  6,970
  7,314
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.058
  4.057
  4.058
  4.059
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.057
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.059
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
  4.058
Average production assets, $m
  599
  618
  641
  667
  694
  722
  753
  785
  820
  856
  895
  935
  978
  1,024
  1,071
  1,122
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,352
  1,417
  1,485
  1,558
  1,634
  1,713
  1,797
  1,885
  1,978
  2,075
  2,178
  2,285
Working capital, $m
  387
  393
  408
  424
  441
  460
  479
  500
  522
  545
  569
  595
  623
  651
  682
  714
  748
  783
  821
  860
  902
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,090
  1,144
  1,200
  1,259
  1,321
  1,386
  1,454
Total debt, $m
  431
  455
  498
  544
  594
  646
  702
  761
  824
  891
  961
  1,035
  1,114
  1,197
  1,284
  1,376
  1,473
  1,575
  1,683
  1,796
  1,915
  2,041
  2,172
  2,311
  2,457
  2,610
  2,771
  2,941
  3,119
  3,306
  3,502
Total liabilities, $m
  1,105
  1,129
  1,172
  1,218
  1,268
  1,320
  1,376
  1,435
  1,498
  1,565
  1,635
  1,709
  1,788
  1,871
  1,958
  2,050
  2,147
  2,249
  2,357
  2,470
  2,589
  2,715
  2,846
  2,985
  3,131
  3,284
  3,445
  3,615
  3,793
  3,980
  4,176
Total equity, $m
  825
  848
  880
  915
  952
  992
  1,034
  1,078
  1,126
  1,175
  1,228
  1,284
  1,343
  1,405
  1,471
  1,540
  1,613
  1,690
  1,771
  1,856
  1,945
  2,039
  2,139
  2,243
  2,352
  2,467
  2,589
  2,716
  2,850
  2,990
  3,138
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,930
  1,977
  2,052
  2,133
  2,220
  2,312
  2,410
  2,513
  2,624
  2,740
  2,863
  2,993
  3,131
  3,276
  3,429
  3,590
  3,760
  3,939
  4,128
  4,326
  4,534
  4,754
  4,985
  5,228
  5,483
  5,751
  6,034
  6,331
  6,643
  6,970
  7,314
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.522
  0.540
  0.570
  0.590
  0.620
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.760
  0.780
  0.810
  0.830
  0.850
  0.870
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.110
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429
  0.429

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  57
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  154
  161
  167
  174
  182
  190
  198
  206
  216
  225
  235
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  79
  85
  87
  89
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  105
  109
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Funds from operations, $m
  126
  169
  175
  180
  187
  193
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  362
  379
  397
  415
  435
  455
  477
  499
  523
  548
Change in working capital, $m
  -28
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  155
  160
  164
  170
  175
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  208
  217
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  437
  458
  480
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
New CAPEX, $m
  -73
  -19
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -68
  -70
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -294
Free cash flow, $m
  86
  85
  83
  84
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -53
  41
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -61
  41
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  25
  126
  126
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  161
  168
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  243
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  365
  382
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  103
  94
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  112
  115
  110
  114
  118
  122
  127
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  160
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  225
  235
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  98
  84
  81
  77
  74
  70
  66
  62
  57
  53
  45
  41
  37
  33
  29
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SpartanNash Company is a multi-regional grocery distributor and grocery retailer. The Company's core businesses include distributing grocery products to independent grocery retailers (independent retailers), select national retailers, its corporate owned retail stores, and the United States military commissaries. The Company operates through three segments: Food Distribution, Military and Retail. The Food Distribution segment provides a range of nationally branded and private brand grocery products and perishable food products to independent retailers, food service distributors and its corporate owned retail stores. The Military segment contracts with manufacturers to distribute a range of grocery products primarily to military commissaries and exchanges located in the United States, the District of Columbia, Europe, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Bahrain and Egypt. As of December 31, 2016, the Retail segment operated 157 corporate owned retail stores in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SpartanNash (SPTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.7
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.2%
Total Debt to Equity 52.2%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 40.4%

SPTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7735 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SpartanNash. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SpartanNash. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for SPTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SpartanNash, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SpartanNash.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SpartanNash.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SpartanNash. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPTN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPTN are equal to 7.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SpartanNash operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPTN is equal to 4.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $825 million for SpartanNash - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.27 million for SpartanNash is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SpartanNash at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash Announces Share Repurchase Program   [Nov-16-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : October 31, 2017   [Oct-31-17 11:52AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Buy SpartanNash Company (SPTN)?   [Oct-19-17 02:57PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : August 28, 2017   [Aug-28-17 06:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SpartanNash Announces New Chief Financial Officer   [Aug-16-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-06-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SpartanNash Names Kathy Mahoney President, MDV   [May-24-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash to Webcast Annual Shareholders Meeting   [May-17-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ There's Value in SuperValu   [Mar-27-17 07:30AM  Bloomberg]
▶ Should You Buy SpartanNash Co (SPTN)?   [Dec-02-16 09:31AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Nov-21-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SPTN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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