Intrinsic value of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings - SPWH

Previous Close

$3.52

  Intrinsic Value

$7.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+103%

  Value-price divergence*

+119%

Previous close

$3.52

 
Intrinsic value

$7.13

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+119%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPWH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.33
  3.30
  3.47
  3.62
  3.76
  3.88
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.72
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  780
  806
  834
  864
  896
  931
  968
  1,008
  1,050
  1,095
  1,143
  1,193
  1,246
  1,303
  1,362
  1,425
  1,491
  1,561
  1,635
  1,712
  1,794
  1,880
  1,970
  2,066
  2,166
  2,271
  2,382
  2,498
  2,621
  2,750
  2,885
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  737
  763
  790
  820
  852
  886
  922
  961
  1,002
  1,046
  1,092
  1,140
  1,192
  1,246
  1,304
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,567
  1,641
  1,720
  1,803
  1,890
  1,982
  2,078
  2,180
  2,286
  2,398
  2,516
  2,640
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  719
  737
  763
  790
  820
  852
  886
  922
  961
  1,002
  1,046
  1,092
  1,140
  1,192
  1,246
  1,304
  1,364
  1,428
  1,496
  1,567
  1,641
  1,720
  1,803
  1,890
  1,982
  2,078
  2,180
  2,286
  2,398
  2,516
  2,640
Operating income, $m
  61
  68
  71
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  223
  234
  245
EBITDA, $m
  75
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
Interest expense (income), $m
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
Tax expense, $m
  17
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
Net income, $m
  30
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  135

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  346
  357
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  507
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  662
  693
  725
  760
  796
  834
  874
  916
  961
  1,008
  1,057
  1,108
  1,163
  1,220
  1,280
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  344
  357
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  447
  466
  486
  507
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  662
  693
  725
  760
  796
  834
  874
  916
  961
  1,008
  1,057
  1,108
  1,163
  1,220
  1,280
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.267
  2.258
  2.254
  2.256
  2.251
  2.254
  2.251
  2.255
  2.253
  2.253
  2.254
  2.255
  2.253
  2.254
  2.255
  2.255
  2.252
  2.253
  2.255
  2.253
  2.254
  2.254
  2.254
  2.255
  2.254
  2.253
  2.254
  2.255
  2.254
  2.254
  2.254
Average production assets, $m
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  267
  280
Working capital, $m
  109
  180
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  255
  266
  278
  290
  304
  318
  333
  348
  365
  382
  400
  419
  439
  461
  483
  506
  531
  557
  584
  613
  643
Total debt, $m
  201
  207
  218
  230
  243
  257
  272
  288
  304
  322
  341
  361
  383
  405
  429
  454
  480
  508
  538
  569
  601
  636
  672
  710
  750
  792
  836
  883
  932
  983
  1,037
Total liabilities, $m
  316
  322
  333
  345
  358
  372
  387
  403
  419
  437
  456
  476
  498
  520
  544
  569
  595
  623
  653
  684
  716
  751
  787
  825
  865
  907
  951
  998
  1,047
  1,098
  1,152
Total equity, $m
  30
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  346
  358
  370
  383
  398
  413
  430
  448
  466
  486
  507
  529
  553
  578
  604
  632
  661
  692
  726
  760
  796
  834
  874
  917
  961
  1,008
  1,057
  1,109
  1,163
  1,220
  1,280
Debt-to-equity ratio
  6.700
  5.780
  5.890
  6.000
  6.110
  6.220
  6.320
  6.430
  6.530
  6.630
  6.730
  6.830
  6.920
  7.010
  7.100
  7.180
  7.260
  7.340
  7.410
  7.490
  7.560
  7.620
  7.680
  7.750
  7.800
  7.860
  7.910
  7.960
  8.010
  8.060
  8.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.087
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  30
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  135
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
Change in working capital, $m
  -38
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -39
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  -12
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  6
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  12
  6
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  39
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  33
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  30
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
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Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an outdoor sporting goods retailer in the United States. The company offers camping products, including backpacks, camp essentials, canoes and kayaks, coolers, outdoor cooking equipment, sleeping bags, tents, and tools; and clothing products comprising camouflage, jackets, hats, outerwear, sportswear, technical gear, and work wear. Its stores also provide fishing products consisting of bait, electronics, fishing rods, flotation items, fly fishing products, lines, lures, reels, tackle, and small boats; and foot wear products that include hiking boots, socks, sport sandals, technical footwear, trial shoes, casual shoes, waders, and work boots. In addition, the company offers hunting and shooting products, including ammunition, archery items, ATV accessories, blinds and tree stands, decoys, firearms, reloading equipment, and shooting gear; and optics, electronics, and accessories comprising gift items, GPS devices, knives, lighting, optics, and two-way radios. Further, its stores provide archery technician services, fishing-reel line winding, gun bore sighting and scope mounting, and other services, as well as issues hunting and fishing licenses. Additionally, the company offers various private label offerings under the Rustic Ridge, Killik, Vital Impact, Yukon Gold, Lost River, and Sportsman’s Warehouse brands. As of February 15, 2017, the company operated 76 retail stores in 20 states. Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Midvale, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings (SPWH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 5
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 446.7%
Total Debt to Equity 670%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Total Capital 14.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Return On Equity 214.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Asset Turnover 2.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 33.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.7%
EBITDA Margin 9.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 36.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPWH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPWH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $780 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPWH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for SPWH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPWH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPWH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPWH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPWH are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPWH is equal to 22.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $30 million for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.862 million for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Hibbett's Dim Outlook Sends Sports Retailer Stocks Tumbling   [Jul-24-17 02:17PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Sportsman's Warehouse, Inc. Stock Skyrocketed in May   [Jun-08-17 08:38PM  Motley Fool]
▶ These Stocks Are Changing Direction   [May-22-17 01:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Sportsman's Warehouse reports 1Q loss   [May-18-17 04:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sportsmans Warehouse to Hold Grand Opening in Yuma, Arizona   [May-08-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Have Been Cut in Half This Year   [Apr-19-17 03:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sportsman's Warehouse Stock Falling on Goldman Downgrade   [Mar-27-17 03:40PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Sportsman's Warehouse misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-23-17 04:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ The 3 Lowest P/E Consumer Goods Stocks Today   [Jan-28-17 10:44AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of SPWH Financial statements of SPWH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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