Intrinsic value of SunPower - SPWR

Previous Close

$9.09

  Intrinsic Value

$1.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

  Value-price divergence*

+48%

Previous close

$9.09

 
Intrinsic value

$1.86

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+48%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPWR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  62.44
  3.60
  3.74
  3.87
  3.98
  4.08
  4.17
  4.26
  4.33
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  2,560
  2,652
  2,751
  2,858
  2,971
  3,093
  3,222
  3,359
  3,504
  3,658
  3,822
  3,994
  4,176
  4,368
  4,571
  4,785
  5,011
  5,248
  5,498
  5,762
  6,039
  6,331
  6,637
  6,960
  7,299
  7,656
  8,031
  8,426
  8,840
  9,276
  9,733
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,000
  3,112
  3,232
  3,361
  3,498
  3,644
  3,799
  3,963
  4,138
  4,322
  4,517
  4,723
  4,941
  5,170
  5,412
  5,667
  5,936
  6,219
  6,517
  6,830
  7,160
  7,507
  7,872
  8,256
  8,659
  9,084
  9,530
  9,998
  10,491
  11,008
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,966
  3,000
  3,112
  3,232
  3,361
  3,498
  3,644
  3,799
  3,963
  4,138
  4,322
  4,517
  4,723
  4,941
  5,170
  5,412
  5,667
  5,936
  6,219
  6,517
  6,830
  7,160
  7,507
  7,872
  8,256
  8,659
  9,084
  9,530
  9,998
  10,491
  11,008
Operating income, $m
  -407
  -347
  -360
  -374
  -389
  -405
  -422
  -440
  -459
  -479
  -501
  -523
  -547
  -572
  -599
  -627
  -656
  -688
  -720
  -755
  -791
  -829
  -870
  -912
  -956
  -1,003
  -1,052
  -1,104
  -1,158
  -1,215
  -1,275
EBITDA, $m
  -233
  -251
  -260
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -305
  -318
  -332
  -346
  -362
  -378
  -395
  -413
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -496
  -520
  -545
  -571
  -599
  -628
  -658
  -691
  -724
  -760
  -797
  -836
  -877
  -921
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  63
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  95
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  159
  169
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  243
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  383
Earnings before tax, $m
  -565
  -410
  -428
  -446
  -466
  -488
  -510
  -535
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -825
  -867
  -911
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,058
  -1,112
  -1,169
  -1,229
  -1,292
  -1,358
  -1,428
  -1,501
  -1,578
  -1,658
Tax expense, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -471
  -410
  -428
  -446
  -466
  -488
  -510
  -535
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -825
  -867
  -911
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,058
  -1,112
  -1,169
  -1,229
  -1,292
  -1,358
  -1,428
  -1,501
  -1,578
  -1,658

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  425
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,567
  4,292
  4,452
  4,624
  4,808
  5,004
  5,213
  5,435
  5,670
  5,920
  6,184
  6,463
  6,757
  7,069
  7,397
  7,743
  8,108
  8,492
  8,897
  9,323
  9,772
  10,244
  10,740
  11,262
  11,811
  12,389
  12,996
  13,634
  14,304
  15,009
  15,750
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,142
  4,292
  4,452
  4,624
  4,808
  5,004
  5,213
  5,435
  5,670
  5,920
  6,184
  6,463
  6,757
  7,069
  7,397
  7,743
  8,108
  8,492
  8,897
  9,323
  9,772
  10,244
  10,740
  11,262
  11,811
  12,389
  12,996
  13,634
  14,304
  15,009
  15,750
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
  0.618
Average production assets, $m
  932
  965
  1,001
  1,040
  1,082
  1,126
  1,173
  1,223
  1,276
  1,332
  1,391
  1,454
  1,520
  1,590
  1,664
  1,742
  1,824
  1,910
  2,001
  2,097
  2,198
  2,304
  2,416
  2,533
  2,657
  2,787
  2,923
  3,067
  3,218
  3,376
  3,543
Working capital, $m
  825
  488
  506
  526
  547
  569
  593
  618
  645
  673
  703
  735
  768
  804
  841
  880
  922
  966
  1,012
  1,060
  1,111
  1,165
  1,221
  1,281
  1,343
  1,409
  1,478
  1,550
  1,627
  1,707
  1,791
Total debt, $m
  1,870
  1,924
  2,060
  2,205
  2,359
  2,525
  2,701
  2,887
  3,086
  3,295
  3,518
  3,753
  4,001
  4,263
  4,539
  4,831
  5,138
  5,461
  5,802
  6,161
  6,539
  6,936
  7,354
  7,794
  8,256
  8,742
  9,254
  9,791
  10,355
  10,949
  11,572
Total liabilities, $m
  3,559
  3,613
  3,749
  3,894
  4,048
  4,214
  4,390
  4,576
  4,775
  4,984
  5,207
  5,442
  5,690
  5,952
  6,228
  6,520
  6,827
  7,150
  7,491
  7,850
  8,228
  8,625
  9,043
  9,483
  9,945
  10,431
  10,943
  11,480
  12,044
  12,638
  13,261
Total equity, $m
  1,008
  678
  703
  731
  760
  791
  824
  859
  896
  935
  977
  1,021
  1,068
  1,117
  1,169
  1,223
  1,281
  1,342
  1,406
  1,473
  1,544
  1,618
  1,697
  1,779
  1,866
  1,957
  2,053
  2,154
  2,260
  2,371
  2,488
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,567
  4,291
  4,452
  4,625
  4,808
  5,005
  5,214
  5,435
  5,671
  5,919
  6,184
  6,463
  6,758
  7,069
  7,397
  7,743
  8,108
  8,492
  8,897
  9,323
  9,772
  10,243
  10,740
  11,262
  11,811
  12,388
  12,996
  13,634
  14,304
  15,009
  15,749
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.855
  2.840
  2.930
  3.020
  3.110
  3.190
  3.280
  3.360
  3.440
  3.520
  3.600
  3.680
  3.750
  3.820
  3.880
  3.950
  4.010
  4.070
  4.130
  4.180
  4.240
  4.290
  4.330
  4.380
  4.420
  4.470
  4.510
  4.550
  4.580
  4.620
  4.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158
  0.158

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -471
  -410
  -428
  -446
  -466
  -488
  -510
  -535
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -825
  -867
  -911
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,058
  -1,112
  -1,169
  -1,229
  -1,292
  -1,358
  -1,428
  -1,501
  -1,578
  -1,658
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  97
  100
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  145
  152
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  242
  253
  266
  279
  292
  307
  322
  338
  354
Funds from operations, $m
  -486
  -314
  -328
  -342
  -358
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -433
  -454
  -477
  -501
  -526
  -553
  -582
  -612
  -643
  -676
  -711
  -748
  -787
  -828
  -871
  -916
  -963
  -1,013
  -1,066
  -1,121
  -1,179
  -1,240
  -1,304
Change in working capital, $m
  -174
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Cash from operations, $m
  -312
  -331
  -346
  -362
  -379
  -397
  -417
  -438
  -459
  -482
  -507
  -533
  -560
  -589
  -619
  -651
  -685
  -720
  -757
  -797
  -838
  -881
  -927
  -975
  -1,026
  -1,079
  -1,135
  -1,194
  -1,255
  -1,320
  -1,388
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -307
  -322
  -338
New CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -377
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -342
  -359
  -377
  -396
  -416
  -436
  -458
  -481
  -505
Free cash flow, $m
  -689
  -458
  -479
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -576
  -605
  -635
  -666
  -699
  -735
  -772
  -811
  -852
  -895
  -941
  -989
  -1,039
  -1,093
  -1,149
  -1,207
  -1,269
  -1,334
  -1,403
  -1,474
  -1,550
  -1,629
  -1,713
  -1,800
  -1,892
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  60
  125
  135
  145
  155
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  262
  276
  291
  307
  324
  341
  359
  378
  397
  418
  440
  462
  486
  511
  537
  565
  593
  624
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -22
  434
  453
  474
  495
  519
  543
  570
  597
  627
  658
  690
  725
  761
  800
  840
  883
  928
  975
  1,025
  1,078
  1,133
  1,191
  1,252
  1,316
  1,383
  1,454
  1,528
  1,607
  1,689
  1,775
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  160
  559
  588
  619
  650
  684
  719
  757
  795
  837
  880
  925
  973
  1,023
  1,076
  1,131
  1,190
  1,252
  1,316
  1,384
  1,456
  1,530
  1,609
  1,692
  1,778
  1,869
  1,965
  2,065
  2,172
  2,282
  2,399
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -529
  102
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
  180
  191
  202
  213
  224
  237
  249
  263
  277
  291
  307
  323
  340
  357
  376
  395
  415
  436
  459
  482
  506
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  441
  -434
  -453
  -474
  -495
  -519
  -543
  -570
  -597
  -627
  -658
  -690
  -725
  -761
  -800
  -840
  -883
  -928
  -975
  -1,025
  -1,078
  -1,133
  -1,191
  -1,252
  -1,316
  -1,383
  -1,454
  -1,528
  -1,607
  -1,689
  -1,775
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  354
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  22
  -343
  -356
  -370
  -385
  -401
  -418
  -436
  -456
  -477
  -500
  -523
  -549
  -575
  -604
  -634
  -665
  -699
  -734
  -771
  -810
  -851
  -895
  -940
  -988
  -1,039
  -1,092
  -1,148
  -1,207
  -1,269
Discount rate, %
 
  9.80
  10.29
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.51
  13.13
  13.79
  14.48
  15.20
  15.96
  16.76
  17.60
  18.48
  19.40
  20.37
  21.39
  22.46
  23.58
  24.76
  26.00
  27.30
  28.67
  30.10
  31.61
  33.19
  34.85
  36.59
  38.42
  40.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  20
  -282
  -262
  -241
  -219
  -198
  -176
  -155
  -135
  -116
  -98
  -82
  -67
  -54
  -42
  -33
  -25
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  64.8
  41.9
  27.0
  17.4
  11.2
  7.2
  4.6
  2.9
  1.9
  1.2
  0.7
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

SunPower Corporation researches, develops, manufactures, and delivers solar solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Residential, Commercial, and Power Plant. The company provides solar power components, including panels and other system components. It also offers commercial rooftop and ground-mounted solar power systems, residential mounting systems, and power plant systems, as well as utility-scale photovoltaic power plants. In addition, the company offers operations and maintenance services, including remote monitoring, and preventative and corrective maintenance services, as well as rapid-response outage restoration services. Further, it leases solar power systems to residential customers; and sells inverters manufactured by third parties. The company serves investors, financial institutions, project developers, electric utilities, independent power producers, commercial and governmental entities, production home builders, residential owners, and small commercial building owners. SunPower Corporation also sells its products to dealers, systems integrators, and distributors. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. SunPower Corporation is a subsidiary of Total Energies Nouvelles Activités USA.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SunPower (SPWR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.7
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4
Price to Free Cash Flow -2.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 62.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 40.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 178.5%
Total Debt to Equity 185.5%
Interest Coverage -15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -9.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.8%
Return On Total Capital -15.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Equity -38.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 7.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
EBITDA Margin -13.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Operating Margin -15.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -22.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Net Profit Margin -18.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.4%
Effective Tax Rate -1.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPWR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPWR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2560 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SunPower. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of SunPower. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPWR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.8%, whose default value for SPWR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SunPower, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SunPower.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPWR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 113.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPWR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for SunPower.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SunPower. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPWR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPWR are equal to 36.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SunPower operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPWR is equal to 18.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1008 million for SunPower - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 135.714 million for SunPower is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SunPower at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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Stock chart of SPWR Financial statements of SPWR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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