Intrinsic value of Seritage Growth Properties Cl A - SRG

Previous Close

$46.61

  Intrinsic Value

$6.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$46.61

 
Intrinsic value

$6.18

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SRG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SRG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  118.42
  3.20
  3.38
  3.54
  3.69
  3.82
  3.94
  4.04
  4.14
  4.23
  4.30
  4.37
  4.44
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  249
  257
  266
  275
  285
  296
  308
  320
  333
  348
  362
  378
  395
  413
  432
  451
  472
  494
  518
  542
  568
  595
  624
  654
  685
  719
  754
  790
  829
  870
  913
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  278
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  409
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  534
  559
  585
  613
  643
  673
  706
  740
  776
  814
  854
  895
  939
  986
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  279
  278
  287
  297
  308
  320
  332
  346
  360
  375
  391
  409
  427
  446
  466
  488
  510
  534
  559
  585
  613
  643
  673
  706
  740
  776
  814
  854
  895
  939
  986
Operating income, $m
  -30
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
EBITDA, $m
  147
  162
  168
  174
  180
  187
  195
  202
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  273
  285
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
  500
  524
  550
  577
Interest expense (income), $m
  61
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  96
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
Earnings before tax, $m
  -91
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -385
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -52
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -385

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,712
  2,734
  2,826
  2,926
  3,034
  3,150
  3,274
  3,406
  3,547
  3,697
  3,856
  4,025
  4,203
  4,392
  4,592
  4,802
  5,025
  5,259
  5,506
  5,767
  6,041
  6,330
  6,634
  6,954
  7,291
  7,645
  8,017
  8,409
  8,820
  9,253
  9,708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,660
  2,734
  2,826
  2,926
  3,034
  3,150
  3,274
  3,406
  3,547
  3,697
  3,856
  4,025
  4,203
  4,392
  4,592
  4,802
  5,025
  5,259
  5,506
  5,767
  6,041
  6,330
  6,634
  6,954
  7,291
  7,645
  8,017
  8,409
  8,820
  9,253
  9,708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
  0.094
Average production assets, $m
  2,164
  2,233
  2,308
  2,390
  2,478
  2,573
  2,674
  2,782
  2,897
  3,020
  3,150
  3,287
  3,433
  3,587
  3,750
  3,922
  4,104
  4,296
  4,497
  4,710
  4,934
  5,170
  5,419
  5,680
  5,955
  6,244
  6,548
  6,868
  7,204
  7,557
  7,929
Working capital, $m
  0
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
Total debt, $m
  1,167
  1,220
  1,286
  1,358
  1,435
  1,519
  1,607
  1,702
  1,803
  1,911
  2,025
  2,146
  2,274
  2,409
  2,552
  2,703
  2,863
  3,031
  3,208
  3,395
  3,592
  3,799
  4,017
  4,246
  4,487
  4,741
  5,008
  5,289
  5,584
  5,894
  6,220
Total liabilities, $m
  1,908
  1,960
  2,026
  2,098
  2,175
  2,259
  2,347
  2,442
  2,543
  2,651
  2,765
  2,886
  3,014
  3,149
  3,292
  3,443
  3,603
  3,771
  3,948
  4,135
  4,332
  4,539
  4,757
  4,986
  5,227
  5,481
  5,748
  6,029
  6,324
  6,634
  6,960
Total equity, $m
  805
  774
  800
  828
  859
  891
  927
  964
  1,004
  1,046
  1,091
  1,139
  1,190
  1,243
  1,299
  1,359
  1,422
  1,488
  1,558
  1,632
  1,710
  1,791
  1,877
  1,968
  2,063
  2,163
  2,269
  2,380
  2,496
  2,619
  2,747
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,713
  2,734
  2,826
  2,926
  3,034
  3,150
  3,274
  3,406
  3,547
  3,697
  3,856
  4,025
  4,204
  4,392
  4,591
  4,802
  5,025
  5,259
  5,506
  5,767
  6,042
  6,330
  6,634
  6,954
  7,290
  7,644
  8,017
  8,409
  8,820
  9,253
  9,707
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.450
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.770
  1.800
  1.830
  1.860
  1.880
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.990
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.170
  2.190
  2.210
  2.220
  2.240
  2.250
  2.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -52
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -385
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  237
  248
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  322
  336
  352
  369
  386
  404
  424
  444
  466
  488
  512
  537
  563
  590
  619
  650
Funds from operations, $m
  93
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
  114
  117
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  179
  186
  193
  200
  208
  216
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  92
  101
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  122
  126
  129
  133
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -177
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -322
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -488
  -512
  -537
  -563
  -590
  -619
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -69
  -75
  -82
  -88
  -95
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -336
  -353
  -371
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -53
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -298
  -312
  -327
  -343
  -359
  -378
  -396
  -415
  -435
  -457
  -479
  -504
  -528
  -554
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -672
  -705
  -741
  -777
  -816
  -857
  -899
  -943
  -990
Free cash flow, $m
  39
  -145
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -262
  -278
  -293
  -310
  -327
  -346
  -365
  -385
  -406
  -428
  -452
  -476
  -502
  -529
  -557
  -587
  -619
  -651
  -686
  -722
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  53
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  295
  310
  326
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  103
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  231
  244
  258
  272
  287
  303
  320
  337
  356
  375
  396
  417
  439
  463
  488
  514
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  156
  178
  191
  202
  216
  229
  243
  258
  273
  289
  306
  324
  342
  362
  382
  403
  426
  449
  474
  500
  527
  555
  585
  616
  650
  684
  720
  758
  798
  840
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  28
  11
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  82
  -103
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -196
  -207
  -219
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -272
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -514
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -40
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -208
  -219
  -232
  -245
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -320
  -338
  -356
  -376
  -396
Discount rate, %
 
  9.70
  10.19
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.38
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.03
  39.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -37
  -73
  -68
  -64
  -59
  -54
  -48
  -43
  -38
  -33
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.2
  86.6
  80.3
  74.3
  68.7
  63.4
  58.4
  53.8
  49.4
  45.4
  41.7
  38.2
  34.9
  32.0
  29.2
  26.7
  24.3
  22.2
  20.2
  18.4
  16.7
  15.2
  13.8
  12.6
  11.4
  10.3
  9.4
  8.5
  7.7
  7.0

Seritage Growth Properties is a publicly owned real estate investment trust. It invests in the real estate markets of United States. The firm is engaged in the acquisition, ownership, development, redevelopment, management and leasing of diversified retail real estate. It was formed on June 3, 2015 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seritage Growth Properties Cl A (SRG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -29.7
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 118.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 145%
Total Debt to Equity 145%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Total Capital -2.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Return On Equity -6.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 91.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.7%
EBITDA Margin 59%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.2%
Operating Margin -12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -36.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Net Profit Margin -20.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Payout Ratio -75%

SRG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SRG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $249 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seritage Growth Properties Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Seritage Growth Properties Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SRG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.7%, whose default value for SRG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seritage Growth Properties Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seritage Growth Properties Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SRG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SRG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.3% for Seritage Growth Properties Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seritage Growth Properties Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SRG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SRG are equal to 868.9%.

Life of production assets of 12.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seritage Growth Properties Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SRG is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $805 million for Seritage Growth Properties Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.55 million for Seritage Growth Properties Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seritage Growth Properties Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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▶ Seritage: The Bull-Bear Battle Continues   [May-09-17 11:22AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Seritage Growth Properties reports 1Q results   [May-04-17 06:05PM  Associated Press]
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▶ IIROC Trading Resumption - SRG   [Jan-13-17 04:11PM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of SRG Financial statements of SRG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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