Intrinsic value of Simpson Manufacturing - SSD

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$43.49

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.44
  10.00
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  861
  947
  1,037
  1,131
  1,229
  1,330
  1,436
  1,546
  1,661
  1,779
  1,903
  2,031
  2,164
  2,303
  2,448
  2,598
  2,755
  2,918
  3,088
  3,266
  3,451
  3,645
  3,847
  4,058
  4,279
  4,510
  4,752
  5,005
  5,269
  5,547
  5,837
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  508
  555
  605
  656
  709
  764
  822
  882
  944
  1,009
  1,063
  1,133
  1,206
  1,282
  1,360
  1,442
  1,528
  1,617
  1,710
  1,807
  1,908
  2,014
  2,125
  2,240
  2,361
  2,488
  2,620
  2,759
  2,904
  3,056
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  271
  277
  284
  291
  299
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  346
  355
  364
  373
  382
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  443
  454
  466
  478
  489
  502
  514
  527
  540
  554
Total operating expenses, $m
  721
  779
  832
  889
  947
  1,008
  1,070
  1,136
  1,204
  1,274
  1,347
  1,409
  1,488
  1,570
  1,655
  1,742
  1,834
  1,930
  2,029
  2,132
  2,240
  2,351
  2,468
  2,591
  2,718
  2,850
  2,990
  3,134
  3,286
  3,444
  3,610
Operating income, $m
  139
  168
  204
  242
  282
  323
  366
  410
  457
  506
  556
  621
  676
  733
  793
  855
  920
  988
  1,059
  1,134
  1,212
  1,293
  1,378
  1,467
  1,561
  1,659
  1,762
  1,870
  1,983
  2,102
  2,227
EBITDA, $m
  167
  201
  239
  279
  321
  364
  409
  456
  505
  557
  610
  665
  723
  783
  846
  912
  980
  1,052
  1,127
  1,205
  1,286
  1,372
  1,462
  1,556
  1,654
  1,757
  1,865
  1,979
  2,098
  2,223
  2,354
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
Earnings before tax, $m
  139
  168
  204
  241
  280
  321
  364
  408
  454
  502
  552
  616
  671
  727
  786
  848
  912
  980
  1,050
  1,123
  1,200
  1,281
  1,365
  1,454
  1,546
  1,643
  1,745
  1,852
  1,964
  2,082
  2,205
Tax expense, $m
  49
  45
  55
  65
  76
  87
  98
  110
  123
  136
  149
  166
  181
  196
  212
  229
  246
  265
  283
  303
  324
  346
  369
  392
  417
  444
  471
  500
  530
  562
  595
Net income, $m
  90
  123
  149
  176
  205
  234
  265
  298
  331
  366
  403
  450
  490
  531
  574
  619
  666
  715
  766
  820
  876
  935
  997
  1,061
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,352
  1,434
  1,520
  1,610

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  980
  829
  907
  989
  1,075
  1,164
  1,257
  1,353
  1,453
  1,557
  1,665
  1,777
  1,894
  2,015
  2,141
  2,273
  2,410
  2,553
  2,702
  2,857
  3,019
  3,189
  3,366
  3,550
  3,744
  3,946
  4,157
  4,378
  4,610
  4,853
  5,107
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  753
  829
  907
  989
  1,075
  1,164
  1,257
  1,353
  1,453
  1,557
  1,665
  1,777
  1,894
  2,015
  2,141
  2,273
  2,410
  2,553
  2,702
  2,857
  3,019
  3,189
  3,366
  3,550
  3,744
  3,946
  4,157
  4,378
  4,610
  4,853
  5,107
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.143
  1.142
  1.143
  1.144
  1.143
  1.143
  1.142
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
Average production assets, $m
  249
  274
  300
  327
  355
  384
  415
  447
  480
  514
  550
  587
  626
  666
  707
  751
  796
  843
  892
  944
  997
  1,053
  1,112
  1,173
  1,237
  1,303
  1,373
  1,446
  1,523
  1,603
  1,687
Working capital, $m
  476
  274
  300
  327
  355
  384
  415
  447
  480
  514
  550
  587
  626
  666
  707
  751
  796
  843
  892
  944
  997
  1,053
  1,112
  1,173
  1,237
  1,303
  1,373
  1,446
  1,523
  1,603
  1,687
Total debt, $m
  0
  11
  23
  35
  48
  62
  76
  90
  105
  121
  137
  154
  172
  190
  209
  229
  250
  271
  294
  317
  342
  367
  394
  422
  451
  482
  514
  547
  582
  619
  657
Total liabilities, $m
  114
  125
  137
  149
  162
  176
  190
  204
  219
  235
  251
  268
  286
  304
  323
  343
  364
  385
  408
  431
  456
  481
  508
  536
  565
  596
  628
  661
  696
  733
  771
Total equity, $m
  866
  703
  770
  840
  913
  988
  1,067
  1,149
  1,233
  1,322
  1,413
  1,509
  1,608
  1,711
  1,818
  1,930
  2,046
  2,167
  2,294
  2,426
  2,563
  2,707
  2,857
  3,014
  3,178
  3,350
  3,529
  3,717
  3,914
  4,120
  4,336
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  980
  828
  907
  989
  1,075
  1,164
  1,257
  1,353
  1,452
  1,557
  1,664
  1,777
  1,894
  2,015
  2,141
  2,273
  2,410
  2,552
  2,702
  2,857
  3,019
  3,188
  3,365
  3,550
  3,743
  3,946
  4,157
  4,378
  4,610
  4,853
  5,107
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  90
  123
  149
  176
  205
  234
  265
  298
  331
  366
  403
  450
  490
  531
  574
  619
  666
  715
  766
  820
  876
  935
  997
  1,061
  1,129
  1,200
  1,274
  1,352
  1,434
  1,520
  1,610
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
Funds from operations, $m
  58
  156
  184
  213
  244
  276
  309
  344
  380
  417
  457
  494
  537
  581
  627
  676
  726
  779
  834
  891
  951
  1,014
  1,080
  1,149
  1,222
  1,298
  1,377
  1,461
  1,548
  1,640
  1,737
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  131
  158
  186
  215
  246
  278
  312
  347
  383
  421
  457
  498
  541
  586
  632
  681
  731
  784
  840
  898
  958
  1,022
  1,088
  1,158
  1,231
  1,307
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,653
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -75
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -186
  -194
  -205
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  87
  111
  136
  163
  190
  219
  249
  280
  313
  347
  379
  415
  454
  494
  535
  579
  624
  672
  721
  773
  827
  884
  944
  1,006
  1,071
  1,140
  1,211
  1,287
  1,365
  1,448
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  99
  123
  149
  176
  204
  233
  263
  295
  328
  363
  396
  433
  472
  513
  555
  600
  646
  694
  745
  798
  853
  911
  972
  1,035
  1,102
  1,171
  1,245
  1,321
  1,402
  1,487
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  261
  56
  79
  103
  128
  154
  182
  210
  240
  271
  300
  334
  369
  406
  444
  483
  525
  568
  613
  660
  709
  761
  815
  871
  930
  992
  1,057
  1,125
  1,196
  1,271
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  250
  52
  69
  85
  99
  112
  123
  131
  138
  142
  143
  142
  140
  136
  130
  123
  114
  105
  94
  84
  73
  63
  53
  44
  36
  29
  23
  17
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells building construction products. The company offers wood construction products, including connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners, and pre-fabricated lateral systems used in light-frame construction; and concrete construction products comprising adhesives, specialty chemicals, mechanical anchors, carbide drill bits, powder actuated tools, and fiber reinforced materials for use in concrete, masonry, and steel construction, as well as for concrete repair, protection, and strengthening applications. It also provides wood shrinkage compensating devices; cold formed steel bridging and kneewall connections; structural screws for wood, metal, and composite decking applications; and mechanical anchors for use in hollow wall conditions and for overhead applications. The company markets its products to the residential construction, light industrial and commercial construction, remodeling, and do-it-yourself markets primarily in the United States, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, as well as in Mexico, Chile, and the Middle East. Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. was founded in 1956 and is based in Pleasanton, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.9
Price to Sales 2.4
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 21.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Operating Margin 16.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Net Profit Margin 10.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 36.7%

SSD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $861 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Simpson Manufacturing. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Simpson Manufacturing. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Simpson Manufacturing, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Simpson Manufacturing.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $264 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Simpson Manufacturing.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Simpson Manufacturing. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSD are equal to 28.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Simpson Manufacturing operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSD is equal to 28.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $866 million for Simpson Manufacturing - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.786 million for Simpson Manufacturing is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Simpson Manufacturing at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Worst-Performing Gurus' Stocks   [May-23-17 05:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Simpson Manufacturing posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Simpson Manufacturing posts 4Q profit   [Feb-02-17 06:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc. (SSD)?   [Dec-15-16 10:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of SSD Financial statements of SSD Annual reports of SSD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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