Intrinsic value of Simpson Manufacturing - SSD

Previous Close

$47.36

  Intrinsic Value

$79.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+67%

  Value-price divergence*

+174%

Previous close

$47.36

 
Intrinsic value

$79.31

 
Up/down potential

+67%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+174%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.44
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  861
  984
  1,116
  1,256
  1,403
  1,559
  1,723
  1,894
  2,073
  2,260
  2,454
  2,656
  2,867
  3,085
  3,313
  3,549
  3,794
  4,049
  4,314
  4,590
  4,878
  5,177
  5,488
  5,813
  6,151
  6,505
  6,873
  7,258
  7,660
  8,081
  8,520
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  528
  597
  670
  747
  829
  914
  1,004
  1,098
  1,196
  1,297
  1,391
  1,501
  1,616
  1,734
  1,858
  1,987
  2,120
  2,259
  2,404
  2,554
  2,710
  2,874
  3,044
  3,221
  3,406
  3,599
  3,800
  4,011
  4,231
  4,461
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  271
  277
  284
  291
  299
  306
  314
  322
  330
  338
  346
  355
  364
  373
  382
  392
  402
  412
  422
  433
  443
  454
  466
  478
  489
  502
  514
  527
  540
  554
Total operating expenses, $m
  721
  799
  874
  954
  1,038
  1,128
  1,220
  1,318
  1,420
  1,526
  1,635
  1,737
  1,856
  1,980
  2,107
  2,240
  2,379
  2,522
  2,671
  2,826
  2,987
  3,153
  3,328
  3,510
  3,699
  3,895
  4,101
  4,314
  4,538
  4,771
  5,015
Operating income, $m
  139
  186
  242
  301
  365
  432
  502
  576
  654
  734
  819
  919
  1,011
  1,106
  1,205
  1,308
  1,416
  1,527
  1,644
  1,765
  1,891
  2,023
  2,160
  2,303
  2,453
  2,609
  2,773
  2,944
  3,122
  3,309
  3,505
EBITDA, $m
  167
  220
  278
  341
  408
  478
  552
  630
  711
  796
  885
  977
  1,073
  1,173
  1,277
  1,385
  1,498
  1,615
  1,737
  1,865
  1,997
  2,135
  2,279
  2,430
  2,587
  2,751
  2,922
  3,101
  3,289
  3,485
  3,690
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
Earnings before tax, $m
  139
  186
  241
  300
  363
  429
  499
  572
  649
  729
  812
  912
  1,002
  1,097
  1,195
  1,297
  1,403
  1,514
  1,629
  1,749
  1,874
  2,004
  2,140
  2,282
  2,430
  2,585
  2,747
  2,916
  3,093
  3,278
  3,472
Tax expense, $m
  49
  50
  65
  81
  98
  116
  135
  154
  175
  197
  219
  246
  271
  296
  323
  350
  379
  409
  440
  472
  506
  541
  578
  616
  656
  698
  742
  787
  835
  885
  937
Net income, $m
  90
  136
  176
  219
  265
  313
  364
  418
  474
  532
  593
  666
  732
  801
  872
  947
  1,024
  1,105
  1,189
  1,277
  1,368
  1,463
  1,562
  1,666
  1,774
  1,887
  2,005
  2,129
  2,258
  2,393
  2,534

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  980
  861
  976
  1,098
  1,228
  1,364
  1,507
  1,657
  1,814
  1,977
  2,147
  2,324
  2,508
  2,699
  2,898
  3,105
  3,319
  3,543
  3,775
  4,016
  4,267
  4,529
  4,801
  5,086
  5,382
  5,691
  6,013
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,454
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  753
  861
  976
  1,098
  1,228
  1,364
  1,507
  1,657
  1,814
  1,977
  2,147
  2,324
  2,508
  2,699
  2,898
  3,105
  3,319
  3,543
  3,775
  4,016
  4,267
  4,529
  4,801
  5,086
  5,382
  5,691
  6,013
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,454
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.144
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
  1.143
Average production assets, $m
  249
  284
  322
  363
  406
  451
  498
  547
  599
  653
  709
  768
  828
  892
  957
  1,026
  1,096
  1,170
  1,247
  1,327
  1,410
  1,496
  1,586
  1,680
  1,778
  1,880
  1,986
  2,098
  2,214
  2,335
  2,462
Working capital, $m
  476
  284
  322
  363
  406
  451
  498
  547
  599
  653
  709
  768
  828
  892
  957
  1,026
  1,096
  1,170
  1,247
  1,327
  1,410
  1,496
  1,586
  1,680
  1,778
  1,880
  1,986
  2,098
  2,214
  2,335
  2,462
Total debt, $m
  0
  16
  33
  52
  71
  92
  114
  136
  160
  185
  210
  237
  265
  294
  324
  355
  387
  421
  456
  492
  530
  570
  611
  654
  699
  745
  794
  845
  898
  954
  1,012
Total liabilities, $m
  114
  130
  147
  166
  185
  206
  228
  250
  274
  299
  324
  351
  379
  408
  438
  469
  501
  535
  570
  606
  644
  684
  725
  768
  813
  859
  908
  959
  1,012
  1,068
  1,126
Total equity, $m
  866
  731
  829
  933
  1,042
  1,158
  1,280
  1,407
  1,540
  1,678
  1,823
  1,973
  2,129
  2,292
  2,461
  2,636
  2,818
  3,008
  3,205
  3,410
  3,623
  3,845
  4,076
  4,318
  4,569
  4,831
  5,105
  5,391
  5,690
  6,002
  6,329
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  980
  861
  976
  1,099
  1,227
  1,364
  1,508
  1,657
  1,814
  1,977
  2,147
  2,324
  2,508
  2,700
  2,899
  3,105
  3,319
  3,543
  3,775
  4,016
  4,267
  4,529
  4,801
  5,086
  5,382
  5,690
  6,013
  6,350
  6,702
  7,070
  7,455
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
  0.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  90
  136
  176
  219
  265
  313
  364
  418
  474
  532
  593
  666
  732
  801
  872
  947
  1,024
  1,105
  1,189
  1,277
  1,368
  1,463
  1,562
  1,666
  1,774
  1,887
  2,005
  2,129
  2,258
  2,393
  2,534
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  54
  57
  62
  66
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  134
  141
  149
  158
  166
  176
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  58
  169
  213
  259
  308
  360
  414
  471
  531
  594
  659
  723
  794
  868
  944
  1,024
  1,107
  1,193
  1,283
  1,376
  1,474
  1,576
  1,682
  1,792
  1,908
  2,028
  2,154
  2,286
  2,424
  2,568
  2,720
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  127
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  134
  175
  218
  265
  315
  367
  422
  479
  540
  603
  665
  733
  804
  879
  956
  1,036
  1,119
  1,206
  1,297
  1,391
  1,489
  1,592
  1,698
  1,810
  1,926
  2,048
  2,175
  2,308
  2,447
  2,593
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -58
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -176
New CAPEX, $m
  -42
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -119
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -213
  -224
  -236
  -248
  -260
  -274
  -287
  -303
Free cash flow, $m
  46
  80
  115
  154
  195
  239
  286
  335
  386
  441
  497
  553
  615
  679
  746
  815
  888
  963
  1,042
  1,123
  1,208
  1,297
  1,389
  1,485
  1,586
  1,690
  1,800
  1,914
  2,034
  2,159
  2,290
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -46
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1
  96
  133
  172
  215
  260
  307
  357
  410
  465
  523
  580
  643
  708
  776
  847
  920
  997
  1,077
  1,160
  1,246
  1,336
  1,430
  1,528
  1,630
  1,737
  1,849
  1,965
  2,087
  2,215
  2,348
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -16
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -144
  -150
  -156
  -162
  -169
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -222
  -231
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  227
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  231
  35
  68
  105
  144
  186
  230
  277
  327
  379
  430
  486
  545
  607
  671
  738
  807
  880
  955
  1,033
  1,114
  1,199
  1,287
  1,379
  1,475
  1,575
  1,679
  1,788
  1,902
  2,022
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  221
  32
  60
  86
  112
  135
  156
  173
  188
  198
  204
  208
  207
  204
  197
  188
  176
  162
  147
  131
  115
  99
  84
  70
  57
  46
  36
  28
  21
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., through its subsidiary, Simpson Strong-Tie Company Inc. (SST), designs, engineers and manufactures wood construction products, including connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners and pre-fabricated lateral systems used in light-frame construction. The Company's segments are North America, Europe, Asia/Pacific, and Administrative & All Other. The North America segment includes operations primarily in the United States and Canada. The Europe segment includes operations primarily in France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Switzerland, Portugal, Poland, the Netherlands and Belgium. The Asia/Pacific segment includes operations primarily in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, China, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Company manufactures concrete construction products used for concrete, masonry, steel construction and for concrete repair, protection and strengthening, including adhesives, chemicals and mechanical anchors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Simpson Manufacturing (SSD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 42.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 23.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 19.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Return On Total Capital 10.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Equity 10.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.8%
Operating Margin 16.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Net Profit Margin 10.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 35.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.1%
Payout Ratio 36.7%

SSD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $861 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Simpson Manufacturing. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Simpson Manufacturing. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Simpson Manufacturing, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Simpson Manufacturing.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 53.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $264 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Simpson Manufacturing.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Simpson Manufacturing. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSD are equal to 28.9%.

Life of production assets of 13.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Simpson Manufacturing operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSD is equal to 28.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $866 million for Simpson Manufacturing - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.763 million for Simpson Manufacturing is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Simpson Manufacturing at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Worst-Performing Gurus' Stocks   [May-23-17 05:00PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Simpson Manufacturing posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ Simpson Manufacturing posts 4Q profit   [Feb-02-17 06:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc. (SSD)?   [Dec-15-16 10:25AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of SSD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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