Intrinsic value of Shutterstock - SSTK

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$34.82

  Intrinsic Value

$37.19

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  Rating & Target

hold

+7%

Previous close

$34.82

 
Intrinsic value

$37.19

 
Up/down potential

+7%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSTK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.24
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  494
  534
  576
  619
  664
  710
  759
  809
  862
  917
  973
  1,033
  1,094
  1,159
  1,226
  1,296
  1,369
  1,445
  1,525
  1,608
  1,695
  1,786
  1,882
  1,981
  2,086
  2,195
  2,310
  2,430
  2,556
  2,688
  2,826
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  482
  519
  558
  598
  639
  683
  728
  775
  823
  874
  922
  977
  1,035
  1,095
  1,157
  1,222
  1,290
  1,362
  1,436
  1,514
  1,595
  1,680
  1,770
  1,863
  1,961
  2,063
  2,170
  2,283
  2,401
  2,524
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  449
  482
  519
  558
  598
  639
  683
  728
  775
  823
  874
  922
  977
  1,035
  1,095
  1,157
  1,222
  1,290
  1,362
  1,436
  1,514
  1,595
  1,680
  1,770
  1,863
  1,961
  2,063
  2,170
  2,283
  2,401
  2,524
Operating income, $m
  46
  52
  57
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  146
  154
  163
  172
  181
  191
  201
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
  273
  287
  302
EBITDA, $m
  66
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  247
  260
  273
  288
  303
  319
  335
  352
  371
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
Earnings before tax, $m
  45
  52
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  193
  202
  213
  223
  234
  246
  259
  271
Tax expense, $m
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Net income, $m
  33
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  279
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  502
  241
  260
  279
  300
  321
  343
  365
  389
  414
  439
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765
  806
  849
  895
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,097
  1,154
  1,214
  1,276
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  223
  241
  260
  279
  300
  321
  343
  365
  389
  414
  439
  466
  494
  523
  553
  585
  618
  652
  688
  726
  765
  806
  849
  895
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,097
  1,154
  1,214
  1,276
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.215
  2.216
  2.215
  2.219
  2.213
  2.212
  2.213
  2.216
  2.216
  2.215
  2.216
  2.217
  2.215
  2.216
  2.217
  2.215
  2.215
  2.216
  2.217
  2.215
  2.216
  2.216
  2.217
  2.213
  2.214
  2.215
  2.215
  2.215
  2.215
  2.214
  2.215
Average production assets, $m
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  297
  313
  329
  346
  365
  383
  403
  424
Working capital, $m
  136
  -154
  -166
  -179
  -192
  -205
  -219
  -234
  -249
  -265
  -281
  -298
  -316
  -335
  -354
  -374
  -396
  -418
  -441
  -465
  -490
  -516
  -544
  -573
  -603
  -634
  -668
  -702
  -739
  -777
  -817
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  19
  36
  55
  74
  93
  114
  135
  157
  180
  205
  230
  256
  283
  311
  341
  372
  404
  438
  474
  511
  550
  590
  633
  677
  724
  772
  824
  877
  933
Total liabilities, $m
  215
  217
  234
  251
  270
  289
  308
  329
  350
  372
  395
  420
  445
  471
  498
  526
  556
  587
  619
  653
  689
  726
  765
  805
  848
  892
  939
  987
  1,039
  1,092
  1,148
Total equity, $m
  287
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  502
  241
  260
  279
  300
  321
  342
  366
  389
  413
  439
  467
  494
  523
  553
  584
  618
  652
  688
  726
  766
  807
  850
  894
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,097
  1,154
  1,213
  1,276
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.080
  0.730
  1.300
  1.830
  2.300
  2.730
  3.120
  3.470
  3.800
  4.110
  4.390
  4.650
  4.890
  5.110
  5.320
  5.520
  5.700
  5.880
  6.040
  6.190
  6.330
  6.470
  6.600
  6.720
  6.830
  6.940
  7.040
  7.140
  7.230
  7.310
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.036
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
  68
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  20
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  25
  26
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  113
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  92
  97
  101
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  171
  179
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  267
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
Cash from operations, $m
  101
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  161
  169
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
  307
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -57
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
Free cash flow, $m
  44
  49
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  83
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  122
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  200
  210
  221
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -54
  2
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -17
  51
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  100
  106
  110
  115
  121
  127
  134
  140
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  228
  240
  251
  264
  277
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  2
  -16
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  279
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  314
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  107
  113
  118
  124
  131
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  301
  62
  62
  62
  62
  61
  60
  58
  56
  54
  51
  48
  45
  42
  38
  35
  31
  28
  24
  21
  18
  15
  13
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Shutterstock, Inc. (Shutterstock) is a global technology company that operates a two-sided marketplace for professionals to license content. The Company's library of content includes digital imagery, which consists of licensed photographs, vectors, illustrations and video clips that customers use in their visual communications, such as Websites, digital and print marketing materials, corporate communications, books, publications and video content, and commercial music, which consists of music tracks and sound effects and which is often used to complement digital imagery. It also offers digital asset management services through its cloud-based digital asset management platform (webdam). Its global marketplace brings together users and contributors of content by providing a collection of content its customers can pay to license and incorporate into their work and by compensating contributors as their content is licensed to customers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shutterstock (SSTK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 36.7
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 185.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 23.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Return On Total Capital 11.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Equity 11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.4%
EBITDA Margin 13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.9%
Operating Margin 9.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Effective Tax Rate 26.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SSTK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSTK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $494 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shutterstock. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Shutterstock. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSTK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSTK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shutterstock, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shutterstock.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSTK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSTK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Shutterstock.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shutterstock. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSTK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSTK are equal to 15%.

Life of production assets of 6.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shutterstock operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSTK is equal to -28.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $287 million for Shutterstock - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.75 million for Shutterstock is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shutterstock at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] FirstMark Names Catherine Ulrich Managing Director   [Oct-05-17 02:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Shutterstock, Inc./   [Sep-27-17 04:57PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Moovly Media Announces API Integration with Shutterstock   [Sep-25-17 03:05AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Introducing Shutterstock Custom   [Sep-21-17 08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Shutterstock CIO Leaves After Joining Last Year   [Aug-21-17 03:51PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shutterstock misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 12:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Shutterstock Inc. Shares Got Shut Down Today   [Aug-02-17 04:48PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Shutterstock, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:37PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Lemonade Insurance Hires Ex-Shutterstock CFO Tim Bixby   [Jun-20-17 03:49PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shutterstock CEO Says New Business Plan Hinged Upon Total Overhaul of IT   [May-26-17 05:29PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Shutterstock Contributors Earn Over $500 Million   [May-23-17 07:04AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tepid Results Reveal Shutterstock's Vulnerabilities   [May-03-17 09:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Shutterstock misses 1Q profit forecasts   [07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Shutterstock to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Apr-20-17 04:03PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Shutterstock to Showcase all the Glamour of The Met Gala   [Apr-06-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Feb-27-17 05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shutterstock Inc. Stock Tumbled Today   [01:28PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Is Shutterstock Inc (SSTK) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-13-16 08:27AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Shutterstock, Inc. Fell 20% in November   [Dec-07-16 09:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Shutterstock Shares Fall on Weak Sales, Guidance   [Nov-04-16 05:06PM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of SSTK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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