Intrinsic value of STAG Industrial - STAG

Previous Close

$27.74

  Intrinsic Value

$3.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

-7%

Previous close

$27.74

 
Intrinsic value

$3.12

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-7%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as STAG.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STAG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.16
  13.10
  12.29
  11.56
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.49
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.22
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  250
  283
  317
  354
  393
  433
  476
  520
  566
  614
  664
  716
  770
  826
  885
  945
  1,008
  1,074
  1,142
  1,213
  1,287
  1,364
  1,444
  1,528
  1,615
  1,707
  1,802
  1,901
  2,005
  2,114
  2,228
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  155
  174
  194
  215
  237
  261
  285
  310
  337
  364
  392
  422
  453
  485
  518
  553
  588
  626
  665
  705
  747
  791
  837
  885
  935
  987
  1,042
  1,099
  1,159
  1,221
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  101
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
Total operating expenses, $m
  234
  256
  278
  301
  324
  349
  376
  403
  431
  461
  491
  522
  555
  589
  625
  661
  700
  739
  780
  823
  867
  913
  961
  1,012
  1,064
  1,119
  1,175
  1,235
  1,297
  1,362
  1,429
Operating income, $m
  17
  26
  39
  53
  68
  84
  100
  117
  135
  154
  173
  194
  215
  237
  260
  284
  309
  335
  362
  390
  419
  450
  482
  516
  551
  588
  626
  667
  709
  753
  799
EBITDA, $m
  148
  175
  206
  239
  274
  311
  350
  390
  432
  476
  522
  569
  619
  670
  724
  779
  837
  898
  960
  1,026
  1,094
  1,165
  1,239
  1,317
  1,398
  1,482
  1,571
  1,663
  1,760
  1,861
  1,967
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  40
  46
  53
  59
  66
  74
  81
  89
  98
  106
  115
  125
  134
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  202
  214
  228
  242
  256
  271
  287
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  -14
  -7
  1
  9
  18
  27
  36
  46
  56
  67
  79
  90
  103
  115
  129
  143
  157
  172
  188
  205
  222
  241
  260
  280
  301
  323
  346
  370
  395
  422
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  5
  7
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  39
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  100
  107
  114
Net income, $m
  35
  -14
  -7
  1
  7
  13
  19
  26
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  150
  162
  176
  190
  204
  219
  236
  252
  270
  289
  308

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,186
  2,459
  2,761
  3,080
  3,416
  3,768
  4,137
  4,522
  4,923
  5,341
  5,776
  6,227
  6,697
  7,185
  7,692
  8,220
  8,768
  9,338
  9,931
  10,548
  11,191
  11,860
  12,559
  13,287
  14,046
  14,839
  15,668
  16,533
  17,438
  18,383
  19,373
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,174
  2,459
  2,761
  3,080
  3,416
  3,768
  4,137
  4,522
  4,923
  5,341
  5,776
  6,227
  6,697
  7,185
  7,692
  8,220
  8,768
  9,338
  9,931
  10,548
  11,191
  11,860
  12,559
  13,287
  14,046
  14,839
  15,668
  16,533
  17,438
  18,383
  19,373
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
Average production assets, $m
  1,979
  2,238
  2,513
  2,804
  3,110
  3,430
  3,766
  4,116
  4,482
  4,862
  5,258
  5,669
  6,097
  6,541
  7,003
  7,483
  7,982
  8,500
  9,040
  9,602
  10,187
  10,797
  11,433
  12,095
  12,787
  13,509
  14,263
  15,051
  15,874
  16,735
  17,636
Working capital, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -107
Total debt, $m
  1,036
  1,187
  1,349
  1,519
  1,698
  1,885
  2,082
  2,287
  2,501
  2,724
  2,955
  3,196
  3,447
  3,707
  3,977
  4,258
  4,550
  4,854
  5,170
  5,499
  5,842
  6,199
  6,571
  6,959
  7,364
  7,786
  8,228
  8,689
  9,171
  9,675
  10,203
Total liabilities, $m
  1,159
  1,310
  1,472
  1,642
  1,821
  2,008
  2,205
  2,410
  2,624
  2,847
  3,078
  3,319
  3,570
  3,830
  4,100
  4,381
  4,673
  4,977
  5,293
  5,622
  5,965
  6,322
  6,694
  7,082
  7,487
  7,909
  8,351
  8,812
  9,294
  9,798
  10,326
Total equity, $m
  1,027
  1,148
  1,289
  1,438
  1,595
  1,760
  1,932
  2,112
  2,299
  2,494
  2,697
  2,908
  3,128
  3,355
  3,592
  3,839
  4,094
  4,361
  4,638
  4,926
  5,226
  5,539
  5,865
  6,205
  6,560
  6,930
  7,317
  7,721
  8,143
  8,585
  9,047
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,186
  2,458
  2,761
  3,080
  3,416
  3,768
  4,137
  4,522
  4,923
  5,341
  5,775
  6,227
  6,698
  7,185
  7,692
  8,220
  8,767
  9,338
  9,931
  10,548
  11,191
  11,861
  12,559
  13,287
  14,047
  14,839
  15,668
  16,533
  17,437
  18,383
  19,373
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.009
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  -14
  -7
  1
  7
  13
  19
  26
  34
  41
  49
  57
  66
  75
  84
  94
  104
  115
  126
  138
  150
  162
  176
  190
  204
  219
  236
  252
  270
  289
  308
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  131
  148
  166
  186
  206
  227
  249
  273
  297
  322
  348
  375
  404
  433
  464
  496
  529
  563
  599
  636
  675
  715
  757
  801
  847
  895
  945
  997
  1,051
  1,108
  1,168
Funds from operations, $m
  135
  134
  160
  186
  213
  240
  269
  299
  330
  363
  397
  433
  470
  508
  548
  590
  633
  678
  725
  773
  824
  877
  933
  991
  1,051
  1,114
  1,180
  1,249
  1,321
  1,397
  1,476
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  136
  161
  188
  214
  242
  271
  301
  333
  366
  400
  435
  472
  511
  551
  592
  636
  681
  728
  777
  828
  881
  937
  995
  1,055
  1,118
  1,185
  1,254
  1,326
  1,402
  1,481
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -131
  -148
  -166
  -186
  -206
  -227
  -249
  -273
  -297
  -322
  -348
  -375
  -404
  -433
  -464
  -496
  -529
  -563
  -599
  -636
  -675
  -715
  -757
  -801
  -847
  -895
  -945
  -997
  -1,051
  -1,108
New CAPEX, $m
  -498
  -259
  -275
  -291
  -306
  -321
  -336
  -350
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -411
  -428
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -540
  -562
  -585
  -610
  -636
  -663
  -692
  -722
  -754
  -788
  -823
  -861
  -901
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -347
  -390
  -423
  -457
  -492
  -527
  -563
  -599
  -638
  -677
  -718
  -759
  -803
  -848
  -895
  -944
  -995
  -1,048
  -1,103
  -1,161
  -1,221
  -1,285
  -1,351
  -1,420
  -1,493
  -1,569
  -1,649
  -1,733
  -1,820
  -1,912
  -2,009
Free cash flow, $m
  -212
  -255
  -262
  -269
  -277
  -285
  -292
  -299
  -305
  -312
  -318
  -324
  -331
  -337
  -344
  -351
  -359
  -367
  -375
  -384
  -393
  -403
  -414
  -425
  -437
  -450
  -464
  -479
  -494
  -510
  -527
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  151
  161
  170
  179
  188
  196
  205
  214
  223
  232
  241
  250
  260
  270
  281
  292
  304
  316
  329
  343
  357
  372
  388
  405
  423
  441
  461
  482
  504
  527
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  289
  147
  148
  148
  150
  152
  153
  153
  154
  154
  154
  154
  153
  153
  153
  152
  152
  151
  151
  151
  151
  150
  150
  150
  151
  151
  151
  152
  152
  153
  154
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  329
  298
  309
  318
  329
  340
  349
  358
  368
  377
  386
  395
  403
  413
  423
  433
  444
  455
  467
  480
  494
  507
  522
  538
  556
  574
  592
  613
  634
  657
  681
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  117
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -205
  -147
  -148
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -172
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -300
  -313
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -370
  -387
  -404
  -422
  -442
  -462
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -91
  -101
  -99
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -152
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -217
  -227
  -237
  -247
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -295
  -308
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -84
  -85
  -76
  -72
  -67
  -62
  -56
  -51
  -45
  -39
  -34
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  93.9
  88.7
  84.4
  80.6
  77.3
  74.4
  71.8
  69.5
  67.5
  65.7
  64.0
  62.5
  61.2
  60.0
  58.8
  57.8
  56.9
  56.0
  55.2
  54.4
  53.7
  53.1
  52.5
  51.9
  51.4
  50.9
  50.4
  50.0
  49.5
  49.1

STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It is engaged in investment and management of real estate assets. STAG Industrial, Inc. was founded on July 21, 2010 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  STAG Industrial (STAG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 63.7
Price to Sales 8.9
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 100.9%
Total Debt to Equity 100.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity 3.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.4%
EBITDA Margin 82.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin 14%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 334.3%

STAG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STAG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $250 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by STAG Industrial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of STAG Industrial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STAG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for STAG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of STAG Industrial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of STAG Industrial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STAG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $99 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STAG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for STAG Industrial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for STAG Industrial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STAG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STAG are equal to 791.6%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in STAG Industrial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STAG is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1027 million for STAG Industrial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 82.244 million for STAG Industrial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of STAG Industrial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Acquisitions Keep Pushing STAG Industrial Higher   [Aug-01-17 06:31PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Stag reports 2Q results   [06:28PM  Associated Press]
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▶ Stag reports 1Q results   [May-02-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ STAG Industrial Stays on Its Growth Track   [06:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Fat Paychecks From Five Monthly Dividend Stocks   [Apr-10-17 01:31PM  Forbes]
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▶ Ready Or Not, Another Rate Hike Is Coming   [Mar-13-17 07:00AM  at Forbes]
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▶ Hedge Funds Are Betting On Kaiser Aluminum Corp. (KALU)   [Dec-05-16 03:19AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 3 REITs With Big Insider Buying   [Nov-30-16 10:38AM  at Forbes]
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▶ STAG Industrial Keeps Moving Forward   [Nov-04-16 02:34PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ How To Make $500,000 Last Forever   [Nov-02-16 10:10AM  at Forbes]
▶ Ho, Ho, Ho It's Magic WIth REITs   [Oct-31-16 07:00AM  at Forbes]
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Stock chart of STAG Financial statements of STAG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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