Intrinsic value of STAG Industrial - STAG

Previous Close

$28.03

  Intrinsic Value

$2.79

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$28.03

 
Intrinsic value

$2.79

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as STAG.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STAG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.16
  20.00
  18.50
  17.15
  15.94
  14.84
  13.86
  12.97
  12.17
  11.46
  10.81
  10.23
  9.71
  9.24
  8.81
  8.43
  8.09
  7.78
  7.50
  7.25
  7.03
  6.82
  6.64
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
Revenue, $m
  250
  300
  356
  416
  483
  554
  631
  713
  800
  892
  988
  1,089
  1,195
  1,305
  1,420
  1,540
  1,665
  1,794
  1,929
  2,069
  2,214
  2,365
  2,522
  2,685
  2,855
  3,032
  3,217
  3,409
  3,609
  3,818
  4,035
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  164
  195
  228
  265
  304
  346
  391
  438
  489
  541
  597
  655
  715
  778
  844
  912
  983
  1,057
  1,134
  1,213
  1,296
  1,382
  1,472
  1,565
  1,662
  1,763
  1,868
  1,978
  2,092
  2,211
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  101
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
Total operating expenses, $m
  234
  265
  299
  335
  374
  416
  461
  509
  559
  613
  668
  727
  788
  851
  918
  987
  1,059
  1,134
  1,211
  1,292
  1,375
  1,462
  1,552
  1,647
  1,744
  1,846
  1,951
  2,061
  2,176
  2,295
  2,419
Operating income, $m
  17
  34
  57
  82
  109
  139
  171
  205
  241
  279
  320
  362
  407
  454
  502
  553
  605
  660
  717
  777
  838
  903
  970
  1,039
  1,112
  1,187
  1,266
  1,348
  1,434
  1,523
  1,616
EBITDA, $m
  148
  191
  243
  300
  362
  429
  501
  578
  660
  746
  837
  933
  1,033
  1,137
  1,246
  1,359
  1,477
  1,600
  1,728
  1,860
  1,998
  2,142
  2,291
  2,446
  2,607
  2,775
  2,951
  3,133
  3,324
  3,523
  3,730
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  40
  49
  59
  70
  82
  95
  109
  124
  140
  156
  174
  192
  211
  231
  252
  274
  296
  320
  344
  369
  395
  423
  451
  481
  511
  543
  577
  611
  648
  685
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  -6
  7
  22
  38
  56
  75
  95
  117
  140
  164
  189
  215
  242
  271
  301
  332
  364
  398
  433
  469
  507
  547
  588
  631
  676
  722
  771
  822
  875
  931
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  2
  6
  10
  15
  20
  26
  32
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  90
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
Net income, $m
  35
  -6
  5
  16
  28
  41
  55
  70
  85
  102
  119
  138
  157
  177
  198
  220
  242
  266
  290
  316
  343
  370
  399
  429
  461
  493
  527
  563
  600
  639
  680

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,186
  2,609
  3,091
  3,621
  4,199
  4,822
  5,490
  6,202
  6,957
  7,754
  8,592
  9,471
  10,391
  11,351
  12,351
  13,392
  14,475
  15,602
  16,772
  17,988
  19,252
  20,566
  21,931
  23,352
  24,830
  26,369
  27,971
  29,641
  31,381
  33,197
  35,091
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,174
  2,609
  3,091
  3,621
  4,199
  4,822
  5,490
  6,202
  6,957
  7,754
  8,592
  9,471
  10,391
  11,351
  12,351
  13,392
  14,475
  15,602
  16,772
  17,988
  19,252
  20,566
  21,931
  23,352
  24,830
  26,369
  27,971
  29,641
  31,381
  33,197
  35,091
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
Average production assets, $m
  1,729
  2,074
  2,458
  2,879
  3,338
  3,834
  4,365
  4,931
  5,532
  6,165
  6,832
  7,531
  8,262
  9,025
  9,820
  10,648
  11,510
  12,405
  13,335
  14,303
  15,307
  16,352
  17,438
  18,567
  19,743
  20,966
  22,240
  23,568
  24,952
  26,395
  27,901
Working capital, $m
  0
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -47
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -86
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -154
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -194
Total debt, $m
  1,036
  1,267
  1,525
  1,807
  2,115
  2,447
  2,803
  3,183
  3,585
  4,010
  4,457
  4,925
  5,415
  5,927
  6,460
  7,015
  7,592
  8,193
  8,816
  9,465
  10,138
  10,839
  11,566
  12,324
  13,111
  13,932
  14,786
  15,675
  16,603
  17,571
  18,581
Total liabilities, $m
  1,159
  1,390
  1,648
  1,930
  2,238
  2,570
  2,926
  3,306
  3,708
  4,133
  4,580
  5,048
  5,538
  6,050
  6,583
  7,138
  7,715
  8,316
  8,939
  9,588
  10,261
  10,962
  11,689
  12,447
  13,234
  14,055
  14,909
  15,798
  16,726
  17,694
  18,704
Total equity, $m
  1,027
  1,218
  1,444
  1,691
  1,961
  2,252
  2,564
  2,896
  3,249
  3,621
  4,013
  4,423
  4,853
  5,301
  5,768
  6,254
  6,760
  7,286
  7,832
  8,400
  8,991
  9,604
  10,242
  10,905
  11,596
  12,314
  13,062
  13,842
  14,655
  15,503
  16,388
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,186
  2,608
  3,092
  3,621
  4,199
  4,822
  5,490
  6,202
  6,957
  7,754
  8,593
  9,471
  10,391
  11,351
  12,351
  13,392
  14,475
  15,602
  16,771
  17,988
  19,252
  20,566
  21,931
  23,352
  24,830
  26,369
  27,971
  29,640
  31,381
  33,197
  35,092
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.009
  1.040
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467
  0.467

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  35
  -6
  5
  16
  28
  41
  55
  70
  85
  102
  119
  138
  157
  177
  198
  220
  242
  266
  290
  316
  343
  370
  399
  429
  461
  493
  527
  563
  600
  639
  680
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  131
  157
  186
  218
  253
  290
  331
  374
  419
  467
  518
  571
  626
  684
  744
  807
  872
  940
  1,010
  1,084
  1,160
  1,239
  1,321
  1,407
  1,496
  1,588
  1,685
  1,785
  1,890
  2,000
  2,114
Funds from operations, $m
  135
  151
  191
  234
  281
  331
  386
  443
  504
  569
  637
  708
  783
  861
  942
  1,026
  1,114
  1,206
  1,301
  1,400
  1,502
  1,609
  1,720
  1,836
  1,956
  2,082
  2,212
  2,348
  2,490
  2,639
  2,793
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  135
  153
  194
  237
  284
  335
  389
  447
  509
  573
  642
  713
  788
  866
  947
  1,032
  1,120
  1,212
  1,307
  1,406
  1,509
  1,616
  1,728
  1,844
  1,964
  2,090
  2,221
  2,358
  2,500
  2,649
  2,804
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -131
  -157
  -186
  -218
  -253
  -290
  -331
  -374
  -419
  -467
  -518
  -571
  -626
  -684
  -744
  -807
  -872
  -940
  -1,010
  -1,084
  -1,160
  -1,239
  -1,321
  -1,407
  -1,496
  -1,588
  -1,685
  -1,785
  -1,890
  -2,000
New CAPEX, $m
  -498
  -346
  -384
  -422
  -459
  -495
  -531
  -566
  -600
  -634
  -667
  -699
  -731
  -763
  -795
  -828
  -861
  -895
  -931
  -967
  -1,005
  -1,045
  -1,086
  -1,129
  -1,175
  -1,223
  -1,274
  -1,328
  -1,384
  -1,443
  -1,506
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -347
  -477
  -541
  -608
  -677
  -748
  -821
  -897
  -974
  -1,053
  -1,134
  -1,217
  -1,302
  -1,389
  -1,479
  -1,572
  -1,668
  -1,767
  -1,871
  -1,977
  -2,089
  -2,205
  -2,325
  -2,450
  -2,582
  -2,719
  -2,862
  -3,013
  -3,169
  -3,333
  -3,506
Free cash flow, $m
  -212
  -323
  -347
  -370
  -393
  -413
  -432
  -450
  -465
  -479
  -492
  -503
  -514
  -523
  -532
  -540
  -548
  -555
  -563
  -571
  -579
  -588
  -597
  -607
  -617
  -629
  -641
  -655
  -669
  -685
  -702
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  231
  257
  283
  308
  332
  356
  380
  402
  425
  447
  469
  490
  512
  533
  555
  577
  600
  624
  648
  674
  700
  728
  757
  788
  820
  854
  890
  928
  968
  1,010
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  289
  210
  220
  231
  241
  250
  257
  263
  267
  270
  272
  273
  272
  271
  269
  267
  264
  260
  256
  252
  248
  243
  239
  234
  230
  225
  221
  217
  213
  209
  205
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  329
  441
  477
  514
  549
  582
  613
  643
  669
  695
  719
  742
  762
  783
  802
  822
  841
  860
  880
  900
  922
  943
  967
  991
  1,018
  1,045
  1,075
  1,107
  1,141
  1,177
  1,215
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  117
  118
  131
  143
  156
  169
  181
  193
  204
  216
  227
  238
  249
  260
  271
  282
  293
  305
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  434
  452
  471
  491
  513
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -205
  -210
  -225
  -248
  -269
  -291
  -312
  -333
  -353
  -372
  -391
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -467
  -486
  -506
  -526
  -547
  -568
  -590
  -613
  -638
  -663
  -690
  -719
  -748
  -780
  -813
  -848
  -885
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -80
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -204
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -342
  -356
  -372
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -74
  -80
  -80
  -78
  -75
  -71
  -66
  -60
  -54
  -48
  -41
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.4
  86.2
  81.1
  76.7
  73.0
  69.8
  67.1
  64.7
  62.6
  60.8
  59.2
  57.8
  56.6
  55.4
  54.4
  53.5
  52.7
  52.0
  51.3
  50.8
  50.2
  49.7
  49.3
  48.9
  48.5
  48.1
  47.8
  47.5
  47.3
  47.0

STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust. The Company is focused on the acquisition, ownership, and operation of single-tenant, industrial properties across the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned 314 buildings in 37 states with approximately 60.9 million rentable square feet, consisting of 243 warehouse/distribution buildings, 54 light manufacturing buildings, 16 flex/office buildings, and one building in redevelopment. The Company owns all of its properties and conducts its business primarily through STAG Industrial Operating Partnership, L.P. (Operating Partnership). The Company invests in properties historically used for industrial, light manufacturing and commercial purposes. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's properties were in various locations, such as Montgomery, Alabama; Rogers, Arkansas; Phoenix, Arizona; Sparks, Maryland; Camarillo, California, and Golden and Grand Junction in Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  STAG Industrial (STAG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 64.3
Price to Sales 9
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 100.9%
Total Debt to Equity 100.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 1.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0%
Return On Equity 3.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 80.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 80.4%
EBITDA Margin 82.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.5%
Operating Margin 6.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Net Profit Margin 14%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 334.3%

STAG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STAG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $250 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by STAG Industrial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of STAG Industrial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STAG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for STAG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of STAG Industrial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of STAG Industrial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STAG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 54.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $99 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STAG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.9% for STAG Industrial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for STAG Industrial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STAG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STAG are equal to 691.4%.

Life of production assets of 13.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in STAG Industrial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STAG is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1027 million for STAG Industrial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 92.153 million for STAG Industrial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of STAG Industrial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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Financial statements of STAG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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