Intrinsic value of Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality - STAY

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$19.37

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2013), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2013(a)
   2014
   2015
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.07
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,133
  1,191
  1,251
  1,315
  1,382
  1,452
  1,525
  1,602
  1,683
  1,768
  1,857
  1,951
  2,049
  2,152
  2,260
  2,373
  2,492
  2,618
  2,749
  2,887
  3,031
  3,183
  3,343
  3,510
  3,686
  3,871
  4,065
  4,268
  4,482
  4,706
  4,942
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  856
  899
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,095
  1,150
  1,207
  1,268
  1,332
  1,393
  1,463
  1,536
  1,614
  1,695
  1,780
  1,869
  1,963
  2,061
  2,165
  2,273
  2,387
  2,507
  2,632
  2,764
  2,902
  3,048
  3,200
  3,360
  3,529
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  821
  856
  899
  945
  992
  1,042
  1,095
  1,150
  1,207
  1,268
  1,332
  1,393
  1,463
  1,536
  1,614
  1,695
  1,780
  1,869
  1,963
  2,061
  2,165
  2,273
  2,387
  2,507
  2,632
  2,764
  2,902
  3,048
  3,200
  3,360
  3,529
Operating income, $m
  312
  335
  352
  370
  389
  409
  430
  453
  476
  500
  525
  558
  586
  615
  646
  679
  713
  748
  786
  825
  867
  910
  956
  1,004
  1,054
  1,107
  1,162
  1,220
  1,282
  1,346
  1,413
EBITDA, $m
  480
  514
  541
  568
  597
  627
  659
  692
  727
  764
  802
  843
  885
  929
  976
  1,025
  1,077
  1,131
  1,187
  1,247
  1,309
  1,375
  1,444
  1,516
  1,592
  1,672
  1,756
  1,844
  1,936
  2,033
  2,135
Interest expense (income), $m
  201
  181
  193
  206
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  293
  310
  328
  347
  367
  388
  410
  433
  457
  483
  509
  537
  567
  597
  630
  664
  699
  737
  776
  817
  861
  906
Earnings before tax, $m
  78
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  184
  192
  199
  207
  215
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  330
  344
  359
  374
  390
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  507
Tax expense, $m
  -5
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
Net income, $m
  86
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,450
  4,615
  4,850
  5,097
  5,355
  5,627
  5,911
  6,210
  6,523
  6,852
  7,198
  7,560
  7,941
  8,340
  8,759
  9,199
  9,661
  10,146
  10,654
  11,189
  11,750
  12,339
  12,957
  13,606
  14,288
  15,003
  15,754
  16,543
  17,371
  18,241
  19,154
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,390
  4,615
  4,850
  5,097
  5,355
  5,627
  5,911
  6,210
  6,523
  6,852
  7,198
  7,560
  7,941
  8,340
  8,759
  9,199
  9,661
  10,146
  10,654
  11,189
  11,750
  12,339
  12,957
  13,606
  14,288
  15,003
  15,754
  16,543
  17,371
  18,241
  19,154
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
Average production assets, $m
  4,153
  4,364
  4,586
  4,819
  5,064
  5,320
  5,590
  5,872
  6,168
  6,479
  6,806
  7,149
  7,508
  7,886
  8,282
  8,698
  9,135
  9,593
  10,075
  10,580
  11,110
  11,667
  12,252
  12,865
  13,510
  14,186
  14,897
  15,643
  16,426
  17,248
  18,111
Working capital, $m
  0
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -262
Total debt, $m
  2,926
  3,116
  3,315
  3,523
  3,741
  3,970
  4,210
  4,462
  4,727
  5,004
  5,296
  5,602
  5,923
  6,260
  6,614
  6,985
  7,375
  7,784
  8,213
  8,664
  9,138
  9,635
  10,157
  10,705
  11,280
  11,884
  12,518
  13,183
  13,882
  14,616
  15,387
Total liabilities, $m
  3,705
  3,895
  4,094
  4,302
  4,520
  4,749
  4,989
  5,241
  5,506
  5,783
  6,075
  6,381
  6,702
  7,039
  7,393
  7,764
  8,154
  8,563
  8,992
  9,443
  9,917
  10,414
  10,936
  11,484
  12,059
  12,663
  13,297
  13,962
  14,661
  15,395
  16,166
Total equity, $m
  745
  720
  757
  795
  835
  878
  922
  969
  1,018
  1,069
  1,123
  1,179
  1,239
  1,301
  1,366
  1,435
  1,507
  1,583
  1,662
  1,745
  1,833
  1,925
  2,021
  2,123
  2,229
  2,340
  2,458
  2,581
  2,710
  2,846
  2,988
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,450
  4,615
  4,851
  5,097
  5,355
  5,627
  5,911
  6,210
  6,524
  6,852
  7,198
  7,560
  7,941
  8,340
  8,759
  9,199
  9,661
  10,146
  10,654
  11,188
  11,750
  12,339
  12,957
  13,607
  14,288
  15,003
  15,755
  16,543
  17,371
  18,241
  19,154
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.928
  4.330
  4.380
  4.430
  4.480
  4.520
  4.570
  4.610
  4.640
  4.680
  4.720
  4.750
  4.780
  4.810
  4.840
  4.870
  4.890
  4.920
  4.940
  4.960
  4.990
  5.010
  5.020
  5.040
  5.060
  5.080
  5.090
  5.110
  5.120
  5.140
  5.150
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156
  0.156

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  86
  112
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  213
  221
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  168
  179
  188
  198
  207
  218
  228
  240
  251
  264
  277
  285
  299
  314
  330
  347
  364
  382
  401
  422
  443
  465
  488
  513
  538
  565
  593
  623
  654
  687
  722
Funds from operations, $m
  332
  292
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  379
  397
  415
  434
  452
  473
  495
  518
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  716
  750
  786
  823
  863
  904
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,092
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  311
  303
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  383
  401
  419
  439
  457
  478
  501
  524
  549
  574
  601
  630
  660
  691
  724
  758
  795
  833
  872
  914
  958
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -330
  -347
  -364
  -382
  -401
  -422
  -443
  -465
  -488
  -513
  -538
  -565
  -593
  -623
  -654
  -687
New CAPEX, $m
  -189
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -416
  -437
  -458
  -481
  -505
  -530
  -557
  -585
  -614
  -644
  -677
  -710
  -746
  -783
  -822
  -863
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -165
  -376
  -396
  -416
  -436
  -459
  -481
  -505
  -530
  -557
  -584
  -614
  -645
  -677
  -710
  -746
  -784
  -822
  -863
  -906
  -952
  -1,000
  -1,050
  -1,102
  -1,157
  -1,215
  -1,275
  -1,339
  -1,406
  -1,476
  -1,550
Free cash flow, $m
  146
  -74
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -138
  -146
  -157
  -166
  -176
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -342
  -361
  -381
  -402
  -423
  -446
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -701
  190
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  409
  430
  451
  473
  497
  522
  548
  575
  604
  634
  666
  699
  734
  770
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  650
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -189
  190
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  291
  306
  321
  337
  354
  371
  390
  409
  430
  451
  473
  497
  522
  548
  575
  604
  634
  666
  699
  734
  770
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -43
  116
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  188
  196
  204
  212
  221
  231
  240
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  5
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  141
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
Discount rate, %
 
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.36
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
  29.82
  31.31
  32.87
  34.52
  36.24
  38.06
  39.96
  41.96
  44.05
  46.26
  48.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  126
  58
  52
  46
  41
  35
  30
  25
  21
  17
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Extended Stay America, Inc. develops, owns, and operates hotels in the United States and Canada. As of December 31, 2015, the company had 629 hotels with approximately 69,400 consisting of 626 hotels with approximately 68,900 rooms under the Extended Stay America brand; and 3 hotels with 500 rooms under the Extended Stay Canada brand. It serves customers in the mid-priced extended stay segment. Extended Stay America, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality (STAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.1
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 32.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -52.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 392.8%
Total Debt to Equity 392.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Equity 11.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 52.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.4%
EBITDA Margin 39.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.5%
Operating Margin 27.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate -6.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

STAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1133 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality. The default revenue input number comes from 2013 income statement of Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.8%, whose default value for STAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 71.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.2% for Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STAY are equal to 366.5%.

Life of production assets of 25.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STAY is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $745 million for Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.181 million for Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Extended Stay America / ESH Hospitality at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.


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Stock chart of STAY Financial statements of STAY Annual reports of STAY
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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