Intrinsic value of Stewart Information Services - STC

Previous Close

$39.11

  Intrinsic Value

$17.56

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-55%

Previous close

$39.11

 
Intrinsic value

$17.56

 
Up/down potential

-55%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as STC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  2,047
  2,094
  2,148
  2,208
  2,275
  2,349
  2,429
  2,515
  2,609
  2,709
  2,816
  2,930
  3,052
  3,181
  3,319
  3,464
  3,618
  3,781
  3,953
  4,134
  4,326
  4,528
  4,741
  4,966
  5,202
  5,451
  5,713
  5,988
  6,278
  6,584
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,034
  2,081
  2,134
  2,193
  2,259
  2,331
  2,410
  2,495
  2,587
  2,685
  2,769
  2,881
  3,001
  3,128
  3,263
  3,406
  3,557
  3,717
  3,886
  4,065
  4,253
  4,452
  4,661
  4,882
  5,114
  5,359
  5,617
  5,888
  6,173
  6,473
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,916
  2,034
  2,081
  2,134
  2,193
  2,259
  2,331
  2,410
  2,495
  2,587
  2,685
  2,769
  2,881
  3,001
  3,128
  3,263
  3,406
  3,557
  3,717
  3,886
  4,065
  4,253
  4,452
  4,661
  4,882
  5,114
  5,359
  5,617
  5,888
  6,173
  6,473
Operating income, $m
  91
  13
  14
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
EBITDA, $m
  121
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  139
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
Earnings before tax, $m
  88
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
Tax expense, $m
  20
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
Net income, $m
  55
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,342
  1,368
  1,400
  1,436
  1,476
  1,521
  1,570
  1,624
  1,681
  1,744
  1,811
  1,882
  1,959
  2,040
  2,127
  2,218
  2,315
  2,418
  2,527
  2,642
  2,764
  2,892
  3,027
  3,169
  3,319
  3,477
  3,644
  3,819
  4,003
  4,197
  4,401
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,342
  1,368
  1,400
  1,436
  1,476
  1,521
  1,570
  1,624
  1,681
  1,744
  1,811
  1,882
  1,959
  2,040
  2,127
  2,218
  2,315
  2,418
  2,527
  2,642
  2,764
  2,892
  3,027
  3,169
  3,319
  3,477
  3,644
  3,819
  4,003
  4,197
  4,401
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
  1.496
Average production assets, $m
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  234
  246
  258
  270
  283
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  107
  120
  137
  156
  177
  200
  226
  254
  284
  316
  351
  389
  428
  471
  516
  564
  615
  668
  725
  785
  849
  915
  986
  1,060
  1,139
  1,221
  1,308
  1,399
  1,496
  1,597
  1,703
Total liabilities, $m
  701
  714
  731
  750
  771
  794
  820
  848
  878
  910
  945
  983
  1,022
  1,065
  1,110
  1,158
  1,209
  1,262
  1,319
  1,379
  1,443
  1,509
  1,580
  1,654
  1,733
  1,815
  1,902
  1,993
  2,090
  2,191
  2,297
Total equity, $m
  641
  654
  669
  686
  706
  727
  751
  776
  804
  834
  866
  900
  936
  975
  1,016
  1,060
  1,107
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,587
  1,662
  1,742
  1,825
  1,913
  2,006
  2,104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,342
  1,368
  1,400
  1,436
  1,477
  1,521
  1,571
  1,624
  1,682
  1,744
  1,811
  1,883
  1,958
  2,040
  2,126
  2,218
  2,316
  2,418
  2,527
  2,642
  2,764
  2,891
  3,027
  3,169
  3,320
  3,477
  3,644
  3,818
  4,003
  4,197
  4,401
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.167
  0.180
  0.200
  0.230
  0.250
  0.280
  0.300
  0.330
  0.350
  0.380
  0.410
  0.430
  0.460
  0.480
  0.510
  0.530
  0.560
  0.580
  0.600
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.750
  0.770
  0.780
  0.800
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478
  0.478

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  55
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  30
  31
  31
  31
  31
  32
  32
  32
  33
  33
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
Funds from operations, $m
  138
  37
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
Change in working capital, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  123
  37
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  40
  41
  42
  43
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -57
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  26
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  27
  21
  22
  22
  22
  22
  22
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  28
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  13
  16
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  9
  10
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -31
  20
  24
  29
  33
  37
  42
  45
  49
  54
  58
  46
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  90
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  131
  138
  146
  155
  163
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  35
  46
  51
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  67
  72
  77
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  192
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  33
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  31
  33
  33
  33
  33
  32
  31
  30
  29
  28
  16
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.3
  98.4
  97.4
  96.3
  95.0
  93.6
  92.1
  90.6
  89.0
  87.3
  86.7
  86.1
  85.3
  84.4
  83.5
  82.5
  81.5
  80.4
  79.2
  78.1
  76.9
  75.7
  74.4
  73.1
  71.9
  70.6
  69.3
  68.0
  66.7
  65.4

Stewart Information Services Corporation is a global real estate services company. The Company is engaged in offering products and services through its direct operations, network of Stewart Trusted Providers and family of companies. The Company operates through two segments: title insurance and ancillary services and corporate. Title insurance and related services (title) segment provides services needed to transfer title to property in a real estate transaction and includes services, such as searching, examining, closing and insuring the condition of the title to the property. The ancillary services and corporate segment provides appraisal and valuation services, document management, recording and call center-related services offered to mortgage lenders and servicers, mortgage brokers and mortgage investors. Its primary international operations are located in Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia and Central Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Stewart Information Services (STC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.4
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -10%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 16.7%
Total Debt to Equity 16.7%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Equity 8.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.6%
Payout Ratio 50.9%

STC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2007 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Stewart Information Services. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Stewart Information Services. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for STC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Stewart Information Services, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Stewart Information Services.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Stewart Information Services.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Stewart Information Services. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STC are equal to 4.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Stewart Information Services operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $641 million for Stewart Information Services - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 23.742 million for Stewart Information Services is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Stewart Information Services at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Stewart Information Services posts 3Q profit   [06:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Houston real estate co. names new CFO   [Sep-05-17 02:40PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Stewart Names David Hisey as CFO   [Aug-30-17 05:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ Stewart Information Services posts 2Q profit   [12:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stewart Opens Commercial Services Center in Florida   [May-30-17 09:22AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stewart Title Expands in Utah   [May-23-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stewart Appoints Houston Local to Leadership Position   [May-09-17 09:51AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stewart Information Services posts 1Q profit   [Apr-20-17 06:26AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stewart Title names new Houston senior division president   [Apr-19-17 03:35PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Stewart Adds Experienced Senior Leadership in Phoenix   [Apr-17-17 10:41AM  Business Wire]
▶ Stewart Confirms Commitment to Growth in Arizona   [Apr-14-17 11:59AM  Business Wire]
▶ Houston real estate co.'s CFO to retire   [09:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Houston real estate co.'s CFO to retire   [09:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ KBW: Wary of Mortgage Finance Stocks, Especially STC   [Jan-09-17 02:41PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Real estate public company fills remaining board seats   [Jan-04-17 03:35PM  at bizjournals.com]
Financial statements of STC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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