Intrinsic value of State Auto Financial - STFC

Previous Close

$26.19

  Intrinsic Value

$26.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-0%

Previous close

$26.19

 
Intrinsic value

$26.10

 
Up/down potential

-0%

 
Rating

hold

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as STFC.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STFC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.54
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  0
  1,444
  1,482
  1,523
  1,569
  1,620
  1,675
  1,735
  1,799
  1,868
  1,942
  2,021
  2,105
  2,194
  2,289
  2,389
  2,495
  2,608
  2,726
  2,852
  2,984
  3,123
  3,270
  3,425
  3,588
  3,760
  3,940
  4,130
  4,331
  4,541
  4,762
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,368
  1,403
  1,443
  1,486
  1,534
  1,587
  1,643
  1,704
  1,769
  1,839
  1,914
  1,994
  2,078
  2,168
  2,263
  2,363
  2,469
  2,582
  2,700
  2,826
  2,958
  3,097
  3,243
  3,398
  3,560
  3,732
  3,912
  4,101
  4,300
  4,510
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,388
  1,368
  1,403
  1,443
  1,486
  1,534
  1,587
  1,643
  1,704
  1,769
  1,839
  1,914
  1,994
  2,078
  2,168
  2,263
  2,363
  2,469
  2,582
  2,700
  2,826
  2,958
  3,097
  3,243
  3,398
  3,560
  3,732
  3,912
  4,101
  4,300
  4,510
Operating income, $m
  25
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  173
  182
  190
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
EBITDA, $m
  40
  78
  80
  82
  85
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
  257
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  5
  8
  10
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  51
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  212
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  71
  71
  71
  70
  70
  70
  69
  69
  68
  67
  67
  66
  65
  64
  63
  62
  61
  60
  59
  58
  56
  55
  53
  52
  50
  48
  47
  45
  43
  41
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  17
  17
  17
  17
  16
  16
  16
  15
  15
  14
  14
  14
  13
  13
  12
  12
  11
Net income, $m
  21
  52
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  45
  45
  44
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,959
  3,028
  3,106
  3,193
  3,290
  3,396
  3,512
  3,637
  3,772
  3,917
  4,072
  4,237
  4,413
  4,600
  4,799
  5,009
  5,231
  5,467
  5,716
  5,978
  6,255
  6,548
  6,856
  7,180
  7,522
  7,882
  8,261
  8,659
  9,079
  9,520
  9,984
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,959
  3,028
  3,106
  3,193
  3,290
  3,396
  3,512
  3,637
  3,772
  3,917
  4,072
  4,237
  4,413
  4,600
  4,799
  5,009
  5,231
  5,467
  5,716
  5,978
  6,255
  6,548
  6,856
  7,180
  7,522
  7,882
  8,261
  8,659
  9,079
  9,520
  9,984
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
  0.477
Average production assets, $m
  8
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  122
  171
  225
  286
  354
  428
  509
  597
  691
  792
  900
  1,016
  1,139
  1,270
  1,408
  1,555
  1,711
  1,875
  2,049
  2,233
  2,426
  2,631
  2,846
  3,073
  3,312
  3,563
  3,828
  4,107
  4,400
  4,708
  5,033
Total liabilities, $m
  2,068
  2,117
  2,171
  2,232
  2,300
  2,374
  2,455
  2,543
  2,637
  2,738
  2,846
  2,962
  3,085
  3,216
  3,354
  3,501
  3,657
  3,821
  3,995
  4,179
  4,372
  4,577
  4,792
  5,019
  5,258
  5,509
  5,774
  6,053
  6,346
  6,654
  6,979
Total equity, $m
  891
  912
  935
  961
  990
  1,022
  1,057
  1,095
  1,135
  1,179
  1,226
  1,275
  1,328
  1,385
  1,444
  1,508
  1,575
  1,646
  1,720
  1,799
  1,883
  1,971
  2,064
  2,161
  2,264
  2,372
  2,486
  2,606
  2,733
  2,865
  3,005
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,959
  3,029
  3,106
  3,193
  3,290
  3,396
  3,512
  3,638
  3,772
  3,917
  4,072
  4,237
  4,413
  4,601
  4,798
  5,009
  5,232
  5,467
  5,715
  5,978
  6,255
  6,548
  6,856
  7,180
  7,522
  7,881
  8,260
  8,659
  9,079
  9,519
  9,984
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.137
  0.190
  0.240
  0.300
  0.360
  0.420
  0.480
  0.540
  0.610
  0.670
  0.730
  0.800
  0.860
  0.920
  0.970
  1.030
  1.090
  1.140
  1.190
  1.240
  1.290
  1.330
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.500
  1.540
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301
  0.301

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  52
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  45
  45
  44
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  35
  34
  33
  31
  30
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  184
  53
  53
  53
  53
  53
  52
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  45
  44
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  36
  34
Change in working capital, $m
  70
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  114
  53
  53
  53
  53
  53
  52
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  47
  47
  46
  45
  44
  43
  42
  41
  40
  39
  38
  37
  36
  34
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -128
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -14
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  49
  49
  48
  48
  47
  46
  46
  45
  44
  43
  43
  42
  41
  40
  38
  37
  36
  35
  33
  32
  30
  29
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  22
  49
  54
  61
  68
  74
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  293
  308
  324
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  5
  9
  13
  17
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  110
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  49
  54
  61
  68
  74
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  117
  128
  140
  152
  164
  178
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  286
  304
  324
  344
  365
  387
  410
  434
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  157
  165
  176
  187
  198
  210
  222
  235
  248
  262
  277
  292
  307
  324
  341
  359
  378
  398
  419
  440
  463
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -6
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  115
  123
  130
  138
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  278
  292
  307
  323
Discount rate, %
 
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  77
  75
  74
  73
  71
  68
  65
  62
  58
  55
  51
  49
  45
  42
  39
  35
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  99.9
  99.6
  99.1
  98.3
  97.4
  96.3
  95.0
  93.6
  92.0
  90.3
  88.6
  86.7
  84.7
  82.7
  80.7
  78.5
  76.4
  74.2
  72.1
  69.9

State Auto Financial Corporation is a property and casualty insurance holding company. The Company is engaged in writing personal, business and specialty insurance. Its segments include Personal Insurance Segment, Commercial Insurance Segment and Specialty Insurance Segment. Its Personal Insurance Segment include personal auto, homeowners and other personal; Commercial Insurance Segment include commercial auto, small commercial package, middle market commercial, workers' compensation and other commercial, and Specialty Insurance Segment include Excess & Surplus (E&S) property, E&S casualty and programs. State Auto Financial's subsidiaries include State Auto Property & Casualty Insurance Company (State Auto P&C), Milbank Insurance Company (Milbank) and State Auto Insurance Company of Ohio (SA Ohio), each of which is a property and casualty insurance company, and Stateco Financial Services, Inc., (Stateco), which provides investment management services to affiliated insurance companies.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  State Auto Financial (STFC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 52.1
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 2.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 13.7%
Total Debt to Equity 13.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 2.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Net Profit Margin 1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate -10.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -94.3%
Payout Ratio 81%

STFC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STFC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1412 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by State Auto Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of State Auto Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STFC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for STFC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of State Auto Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of State Auto Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STFC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STFC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for State Auto Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for State Auto Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STFC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STFC are equal to 0.5%.

Life of production assets of 0.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in State Auto Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STFC is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $891 million for State Auto Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 42.001 million for State Auto Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of State Auto Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ State Auto Financial posts 2Q profit   [05:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ State Auto Financial Elects New Board Member   [Jun-27-17 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ State Auto Financial Announces Departure of Jessica Clark   [May-23-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ State Auto Financial reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Startup auto insurer Root hires CFO from stalwart State Auto   [Apr-26-17 05:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ State Auto Financial Reports Impact of Storm Activity   [Apr-19-17 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] Smartphone Addicts Behind the Wheel Drive Car Insurance Rates Higher   [Feb-21-17 12:37AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Smartphone Addicts Behind the Wheel Drive Car Insurance Rates Higher   [Feb-20-17 07:15AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ State Auto Financial posts 4Q profit   [06:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ Should You Avoid MakeMyTrip Limited (MMYT)?   [Dec-13-16 07:14AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ State Auto Names Suzanne Sinclair Chief People Officer   [Dec-07-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ State Auto Financial Elects New Board Member   [Oct-03-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of STFC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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