Intrinsic value of STMicroelectronics - STM

Previous Close

$20.10

  Intrinsic Value

$4.38

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-78%

  Value-price divergence*

-116%

Previous close

$20.10

 
Intrinsic value

$4.38

 
Up/down potential

-78%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-116%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.10
  12.90
  12.11
  11.40
  10.76
  10.18
  9.66
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
Revenue, $m
  6,973
  7,873
  8,826
  9,832
  10,890
  11,999
  13,158
  14,369
  15,630
  16,943
  18,309
  19,729
  21,204
  22,737
  24,331
  25,987
  27,709
  29,500
  31,364
  33,304
  35,325
  37,430
  39,625
  41,915
  44,304
  46,798
  49,404
  52,126
  54,972
  57,948
  61,061
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  7,745
  8,682
  9,670
  10,709
  11,798
  12,938
  14,127
  15,366
  16,655
  17,997
  19,380
  20,830
  22,336
  23,901
  25,528
  27,220
  28,979
  30,810
  32,716
  34,701
  36,769
  38,925
  41,174
  43,521
  45,972
  48,531
  51,205
  54,001
  56,924
  59,982
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,759
  7,745
  8,682
  9,670
  10,709
  11,798
  12,938
  14,127
  15,366
  16,655
  17,997
  19,380
  20,830
  22,336
  23,901
  25,528
  27,220
  28,979
  30,810
  32,716
  34,701
  36,769
  38,925
  41,174
  43,521
  45,972
  48,531
  51,205
  54,001
  56,924
  59,982
Operating income, $m
  214
  127
  144
  162
  181
  200
  221
  242
  264
  288
  312
  348
  375
  402
  430
  459
  489
  521
  554
  588
  624
  661
  700
  740
  783
  827
  873
  921
  971
  1,024
  1,079
EBITDA, $m
  910
  441
  495
  551
  611
  673
  738
  806
  876
  950
  1,026
  1,106
  1,189
  1,275
  1,364
  1,457
  1,553
  1,654
  1,758
  1,867
  1,980
  2,098
  2,222
  2,350
  2,484
  2,624
  2,770
  2,922
  3,082
  3,249
  3,423
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  47
  62
  78
  95
  113
  131
  151
  171
  192
  215
  238
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
  396
  426
  457
  490
  524
  559
  596
  635
  675
  717
  761
  807
  855
  905
Earnings before tax, $m
  201
  81
  82
  84
  86
  88
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  111
  113
  115
  118
  120
  123
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  144
  148
  151
  156
  160
  164
  169
  174
Tax expense, $m
  31
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  30
  31
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
Net income, $m
  165
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,964
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,004
  6,822
  7,648
  8,520
  9,437
  10,397
  11,402
  12,451
  13,544
  14,682
  15,866
  17,096
  18,374
  19,703
  21,084
  22,519
  24,011
  25,564
  27,178
  28,860
  30,611
  32,435
  34,337
  36,321
  38,392
  40,553
  42,811
  45,170
  47,636
  50,215
  52,912
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,040
  6,822
  7,648
  8,520
  9,437
  10,397
  11,402
  12,451
  13,544
  14,682
  15,866
  17,096
  18,374
  19,703
  21,084
  22,519
  24,011
  25,564
  27,178
  28,860
  30,611
  32,435
  34,337
  36,321
  38,392
  40,553
  42,811
  45,170
  47,636
  50,215
  52,912
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
  1.154
Average production assets, $m
  1,341
  1,512
  1,695
  1,888
  2,091
  2,304
  2,526
  2,759
  3,001
  3,253
  3,515
  3,788
  4,071
  4,366
  4,672
  4,990
  5,320
  5,664
  6,022
  6,394
  6,782
  7,187
  7,608
  8,048
  8,506
  8,985
  9,486
  10,008
  10,555
  11,126
  11,724
Working capital, $m
  2,799
  1,079
  1,209
  1,347
  1,492
  1,644
  1,803
  1,969
  2,141
  2,321
  2,508
  2,703
  2,905
  3,115
  3,333
  3,560
  3,796
  4,042
  4,297
  4,563
  4,839
  5,128
  5,429
  5,742
  6,070
  6,411
  6,768
  7,141
  7,531
  7,939
  8,365
Total debt, $m
  1,451
  1,768
  2,227
  2,711
  3,219
  3,753
  4,310
  4,892
  5,499
  6,131
  6,787
  7,470
  8,180
  8,917
  9,684
  10,480
  11,308
  12,170
  13,066
  13,999
  14,971
  15,984
  17,039
  18,140
  19,289
  20,489
  21,742
  23,051
  24,420
  25,851
  27,348
Total liabilities, $m
  3,469
  3,786
  4,245
  4,729
  5,237
  5,771
  6,328
  6,910
  7,517
  8,149
  8,805
  9,488
  10,198
  10,935
  11,702
  12,498
  13,326
  14,188
  15,084
  16,017
  16,989
  18,002
  19,057
  20,158
  21,307
  22,507
  23,760
  25,069
  26,438
  27,869
  29,366
Total equity, $m
  4,535
  3,036
  3,403
  3,791
  4,199
  4,627
  5,074
  5,541
  6,027
  6,534
  7,060
  7,608
  8,177
  8,768
  9,382
  10,021
  10,685
  11,376
  12,094
  12,843
  13,622
  14,434
  15,280
  16,163
  17,084
  18,046
  19,051
  20,101
  21,198
  22,346
  23,546
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,004
  6,822
  7,648
  8,520
  9,436
  10,398
  11,402
  12,451
  13,544
  14,683
  15,865
  17,096
  18,375
  19,703
  21,084
  22,519
  24,011
  25,564
  27,178
  28,860
  30,611
  32,436
  34,337
  36,321
  38,391
  40,553
  42,811
  45,170
  47,636
  50,215
  52,912
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.320
  0.580
  0.650
  0.710
  0.770
  0.810
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.960
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.030
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.426
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445
  0.445

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  165
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  71
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  91
  93
  96
  98
  100
  103
  105
  108
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  696
  314
  351
  389
  430
  472
  517
  563
  612
  662
  715
  758
  814
  873
  934
  998
  1,064
  1,133
  1,204
  1,279
  1,356
  1,437
  1,522
  1,610
  1,701
  1,797
  1,897
  2,002
  2,111
  2,225
  2,345
Funds from operations, $m
  1,244
  373
  411
  451
  492
  536
  582
  630
  680
  732
  786
  839
  897
  957
  1,020
  1,086
  1,154
  1,224
  1,298
  1,374
  1,454
  1,537
  1,624
  1,715
  1,809
  1,908
  2,011
  2,118
  2,231
  2,348
  2,472
Change in working capital, $m
  205
  123
  131
  138
  145
  152
  159
  166
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  236
  245
  255
  266
  277
  288
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  426
Cash from operations, $m
  1,039
  250
  280
  313
  348
  384
  423
  464
  507
  552
  599
  644
  695
  747
  802
  859
  918
  979
  1,043
  1,109
  1,177
  1,249
  1,323
  1,401
  1,482
  1,566
  1,654
  1,745
  1,841
  1,941
  2,045
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -268
  -302
  -339
  -378
  -418
  -461
  -505
  -552
  -600
  -651
  -703
  -758
  -814
  -873
  -934
  -998
  -1,064
  -1,133
  -1,204
  -1,279
  -1,356
  -1,437
  -1,522
  -1,610
  -1,701
  -1,797
  -1,897
  -2,002
  -2,111
  -2,225
New CAPEX, $m
  -653
  -171
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -388
  -404
  -421
  -440
  -459
  -479
  -500
  -523
  -546
  -571
  -598
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -727
  -439
  -485
  -532
  -581
  -631
  -684
  -737
  -794
  -852
  -913
  -976
  -1,041
  -1,108
  -1,179
  -1,252
  -1,329
  -1,408
  -1,491
  -1,576
  -1,667
  -1,760
  -1,858
  -1,962
  -2,069
  -2,180
  -2,297
  -2,420
  -2,548
  -2,682
  -2,823
Free cash flow, $m
  312
  -189
  -205
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -332
  -346
  -361
  -377
  -394
  -411
  -429
  -448
  -468
  -489
  -512
  -535
  -560
  -587
  -614
  -644
  -674
  -707
  -742
  -778
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -178
  434
  459
  484
  509
  533
  558
  582
  607
  631
  657
  683
  710
  737
  766
  797
  828
  861
  896
  933
  972
  1,013
  1,056
  1,101
  1,149
  1,200
  1,253
  1,309
  1,369
  1,431
  1,497
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  289
  307
  327
  345
  364
  382
  400
  418
  437
  456
  467
  486
  507
  529
  551
  575
  599
  625
  653
  681
  712
  744
  778
  814
  851
  891
  933
  978
  1,024
  1,074
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -185
  723
  766
  811
  854
  897
  940
  982
  1,025
  1,068
  1,113
  1,150
  1,196
  1,244
  1,295
  1,348
  1,403
  1,460
  1,521
  1,586
  1,653
  1,725
  1,800
  1,879
  1,963
  2,051
  2,144
  2,242
  2,347
  2,455
  2,571
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  109
  534
  561
  591
  621
  650
  680
  709
  738
  768
  798
  818
  850
  883
  918
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,073
  1,117
  1,164
  1,213
  1,264
  1,319
  1,376
  1,437
  1,501
  1,568
  1,639
  1,714
  1,793
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  97
  -348
  -368
  -388
  -408
  -428
  -447
  -467
  -486
  -506
  -527
  -547
  -569
  -591
  -614
  -639
  -664
  -691
  -719
  -748
  -779
  -812
  -846
  -883
  -921
  -962
  -1,005
  -1,050
  -1,097
  -1,148
  -1,200
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,847
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  2,033
  193
  203
  213
  223
  232
  242
  252
  262
  272
  270
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  355
  369
  385
  401
  418
  436
  455
  475
  496
  518
  542
  566
  593
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,949
  177
  177
  175
  173
  169
  163
  157
  150
  142
  128
  120
  111
  102
  93
  83
  74
  65
  57
  49
  41
  35
  29
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.4
  95.0
  92.8
  90.8
  88.9
  87.1
  85.5
  83.9
  82.4
  81.0
  79.7
  78.5
  77.3
  76.2
  75.1
  74.0
  73.0
  72.0
  71.1
  70.2
  69.3
  68.4
  67.6
  66.7
  65.9
  65.1
  64.4
  63.6
  62.8
  62.1

STMicroelectronics N.V. is a global semiconductor company that designs, develops, manufactures and markets a range of products, including discrete and standard commodity components, and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for analog, digital and mixed-signal applications. The Company's segments include Automotive and Discrete Group (ADG), Analog and MEMS Group (AMG), Microcontrollers and Digital ICs Group (MDG), and Others. ADG comprises all dedicated automotive Integrated Circuits (ICs), and discrete and power transistor products. AMG includes low-power analog ICs for all markets; smart power products; Touch Screen Controllers; Low Power Connectivity solutions for Internet of Things (IoT), and power conversion products. MDG comprises general purpose and secure microcontrollers, and Electrically Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory memories. The Others segment includes all the financial values related to the Imaging Product Division, Subsystems and other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  STMicroelectronics (STM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 107.6
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 46
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 17
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 29.4%
Total Debt to Equity 32%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Return On Total Capital 2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Return On Equity 3.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.3%
EBITDA Margin 13.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Net Profit Margin 2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
Payout Ratio 152.1%

STM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6973 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by STMicroelectronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of STMicroelectronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for STM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of STMicroelectronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of STMicroelectronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for STMicroelectronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for STMicroelectronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STM are equal to 19.2%.

Life of production assets of 2.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in STMicroelectronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STM is equal to 13.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4535 million for STMicroelectronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 914.035 million for STMicroelectronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of STMicroelectronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.4 billion.

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Financial statements of STM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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