Intrinsic value of Stamps.com - STMP

Previous Close

$210.30

  Intrinsic Value

$1,243

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+491%

  Value-price divergence*

-92%

Previous close

$210.30

 
Intrinsic value

$1,243

 
Up/down potential

+491%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-92%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STMP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  70.09
  38.10
  34.79
  31.81
  29.13
  26.72
  24.55
  22.59
  20.83
  19.25
  17.82
  16.54
  15.39
  14.35
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
Revenue, $m
  364
  503
  678
  893
  1,153
  1,461
  1,820
  2,231
  2,696
  3,215
  3,788
  4,415
  5,094
  5,825
  6,606
  7,437
  8,315
  9,241
  10,213
  11,231
  12,295
  13,405
  14,560
  15,763
  17,014
  18,313
  19,664
  21,068
  22,527
  24,044
  25,621
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  94
  119
  149
  186
  229
  279
  337
  402
  474
  555
  618
  713
  816
  925
  1,042
  1,165
  1,294
  1,431
  1,573
  1,722
  1,878
  2,039
  2,208
  2,383
  2,565
  2,754
  2,951
  3,155
  3,368
  3,589
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  183
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
  286
  293
  301
  308
  316
  324
  332
  340
  349
  357
  366
  375
Total operating expenses, $m
  244
  277
  307
  342
  384
  432
  487
  550
  620
  698
  784
  853
  954
  1,063
  1,178
  1,301
  1,431
  1,566
  1,710
  1,859
  2,015
  2,179
  2,347
  2,524
  2,707
  2,897
  3,094
  3,300
  3,512
  3,734
  3,964
Operating income, $m
  120
  225
  371
  551
  770
  1,030
  1,334
  1,682
  2,076
  2,517
  3,004
  3,561
  4,140
  4,762
  5,428
  6,136
  6,885
  7,674
  8,504
  9,372
  10,280
  11,226
  12,213
  13,239
  14,307
  15,417
  16,570
  17,769
  19,014
  20,310
  21,657
EBITDA, $m
  139
  259
  408
  593
  817
  1,083
  1,393
  1,750
  2,153
  2,604
  3,102
  3,648
  4,239
  4,876
  5,557
  6,281
  7,048
  7,855
  8,703
  9,592
  10,520
  11,489
  12,498
  13,548
  14,640
  15,775
  16,955
  18,181
  19,455
  20,780
  22,158
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  5
  8
  12
  17
  22
  29
  37
  46
  57
  68
  81
  95
  110
  126
  144
  162
  182
  202
  224
  246
  270
  295
  320
  347
  375
  404
  434
  465
  497
  531
Earnings before tax, $m
  117
  220
  363
  539
  753
  1,008
  1,304
  1,645
  2,030
  2,460
  2,936
  3,480
  4,045
  4,652
  5,302
  5,992
  6,723
  7,493
  8,302
  9,148
  10,033
  10,957
  11,918
  12,919
  13,960
  15,042
  16,166
  17,335
  18,550
  19,812
  21,126
Tax expense, $m
  42
  59
  98
  146
  203
  272
  352
  444
  548
  664
  793
  940
  1,092
  1,256
  1,431
  1,618
  1,815
  2,023
  2,241
  2,470
  2,709
  2,958
  3,218
  3,488
  3,769
  4,061
  4,365
  4,680
  5,008
  5,349
  5,704
Net income, $m
  75
  161
  265
  394
  550
  736
  952
  1,201
  1,482
  1,796
  2,143
  2,541
  2,953
  3,396
  3,870
  4,374
  4,908
  5,470
  6,060
  6,678
  7,324
  7,998
  8,700
  9,431
  10,191
  10,981
  11,801
  12,655
  13,541
  14,463
  15,422

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  108
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  610
  693
  935
  1,232
  1,591
  2,016
  2,510
  3,078
  3,719
  4,435
  5,225
  6,089
  7,026
  8,034
  9,112
  10,258
  11,469
  12,746
  14,087
  15,492
  16,959
  18,489
  20,083
  21,742
  23,467
  25,260
  27,123
  29,059
  31,072
  33,164
  35,339
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  502
  693
  935
  1,232
  1,591
  2,016
  2,510
  3,078
  3,719
  4,435
  5,225
  6,089
  7,026
  8,034
  9,112
  10,258
  11,469
  12,746
  14,087
  15,492
  16,959
  18,489
  20,083
  21,742
  23,467
  25,260
  27,123
  29,059
  31,072
  33,164
  35,339
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.725
  0.726
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
  0.725
Average production assets, $m
  131
  181
  244
  322
  415
  526
  655
  803
  971
  1,157
  1,364
  1,589
  1,834
  2,097
  2,378
  2,677
  2,994
  3,327
  3,677
  4,043
  4,426
  4,826
  5,242
  5,675
  6,125
  6,593
  7,079
  7,585
  8,110
  8,656
  9,223
Working capital, $m
  88
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -44
  -56
  -69
  -85
  -102
  -122
  -144
  -168
  -194
  -221
  -251
  -283
  -316
  -351
  -388
  -427
  -467
  -509
  -553
  -599
  -647
  -696
  -747
  -801
  -856
  -914
  -974
Total debt, $m
  147
  229
  340
  477
  642
  837
  1,065
  1,326
  1,621
  1,950
  2,313
  2,711
  3,142
  3,606
  4,101
  4,628
  5,186
  5,773
  6,390
  7,036
  7,711
  8,415
  9,148
  9,911
  10,705
  11,530
  12,387
  13,277
  14,203
  15,165
  16,166
Total liabilities, $m
  237
  319
  430
  567
  732
  927
  1,155
  1,416
  1,711
  2,040
  2,403
  2,801
  3,232
  3,696
  4,191
  4,718
  5,276
  5,863
  6,480
  7,126
  7,801
  8,505
  9,238
  10,001
  10,795
  11,620
  12,477
  13,367
  14,293
  15,255
  16,256
Total equity, $m
  373
  374
  505
  665
  859
  1,088
  1,356
  1,662
  2,008
  2,395
  2,821
  3,288
  3,794
  4,338
  4,920
  5,539
  6,193
  6,883
  7,607
  8,365
  9,158
  9,984
  10,845
  11,741
  12,672
  13,640
  14,647
  15,692
  16,779
  17,908
  19,083
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  610
  693
  935
  1,232
  1,591
  2,015
  2,511
  3,078
  3,719
  4,435
  5,224
  6,089
  7,026
  8,034
  9,111
  10,257
  11,469
  12,746
  14,087
  15,491
  16,959
  18,489
  20,083
  21,742
  23,467
  25,260
  27,124
  29,059
  31,072
  33,163
  35,339
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.394
  0.610
  0.670
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.528
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  161
  265
  394
  550
  736
  952
  1,201
  1,482
  1,796
  2,143
  2,541
  2,953
  3,396
  3,870
  4,374
  4,908
  5,470
  6,060
  6,678
  7,324
  7,998
  8,700
  9,431
  10,191
  10,981
  11,801
  12,655
  13,541
  14,463
  15,422
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  19
  34
  37
  41
  47
  53
  60
  68
  77
  87
  98
  86
  100
  114
  129
  146
  163
  181
  200
  220
  241
  262
  285
  308
  333
  358
  385
  412
  441
  470
  501
Funds from operations, $m
  160
  194
  302
  435
  597
  788
  1,012
  1,268
  1,559
  1,883
  2,241
  2,627
  3,052
  3,510
  4,000
  4,520
  5,070
  5,651
  6,260
  6,898
  7,565
  8,261
  8,985
  9,739
  10,524
  11,339
  12,186
  13,067
  13,982
  14,934
  15,923
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
Cash from operations, $m
  148
  200
  309
  443
  606
  800
  1,025
  1,284
  1,576
  1,903
  2,263
  2,651
  3,078
  3,538
  4,029
  4,551
  5,104
  5,686
  6,297
  6,937
  7,605
  8,303
  9,029
  9,785
  10,571
  11,388
  12,237
  13,120
  14,037
  14,991
  15,983
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -23
  -29
  -36
  -44
  -53
  -63
  -74
  -86
  -100
  -114
  -129
  -146
  -163
  -181
  -200
  -220
  -241
  -262
  -285
  -308
  -333
  -358
  -385
  -412
  -441
  -470
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -50
  -63
  -78
  -94
  -111
  -129
  -148
  -167
  -187
  -206
  -226
  -245
  -263
  -281
  -299
  -316
  -333
  -350
  -367
  -383
  -399
  -416
  -433
  -450
  -468
  -486
  -505
  -525
  -546
  -568
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -55
  -57
  -73
  -91
  -111
  -134
  -158
  -184
  -211
  -240
  -269
  -300
  -331
  -363
  -395
  -428
  -462
  -496
  -531
  -567
  -603
  -640
  -678
  -718
  -758
  -801
  -844
  -890
  -937
  -987
  -1,038
Free cash flow, $m
  93
  143
  236
  353
  495
  666
  868
  1,100
  1,365
  1,663
  1,994
  2,351
  2,747
  3,175
  3,634
  4,123
  4,642
  5,190
  5,766
  6,370
  7,003
  7,663
  8,351
  9,067
  9,813
  10,587
  11,393
  12,230
  13,100
  14,004
  14,945
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  88
  111
  137
  165
  195
  228
  261
  295
  329
  364
  398
  431
  464
  496
  527
  557
  587
  617
  646
  675
  704
  733
  763
  793
  825
  857
  891
  926
  962
  1,001
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -51
  88
  111
  137
  165
  195
  228
  261
  295
  329
  364
  398
  431
  464
  496
  527
  557
  587
  617
  646
  675
  704
  733
  763
  793
  825
  857
  891
  926
  962
  1,001
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  42
  230
  347
  489
  660
  862
  1,095
  1,361
  1,660
  1,992
  2,358
  2,749
  3,178
  3,639
  4,130
  4,650
  5,199
  5,777
  6,383
  7,016
  7,678
  8,367
  9,084
  9,830
  10,606
  11,412
  12,250
  13,121
  14,026
  14,967
  15,945
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -134
  -103
  -130
  -161
  -194
  -229
  -267
  -306
  -346
  -387
  -427
  -467
  -506
  -544
  -582
  -619
  -654
  -690
  -724
  -758
  -792
  -826
  -861
  -896
  -931
  -968
  -1,006
  -1,046
  -1,087
  -1,130
  -1,175
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  102
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  229
  217
  329
  467
  632
  828
  1,055
  1,314
  1,606
  1,931
  2,282
  2,672
  3,094
  3,548
  4,032
  4,545
  5,088
  5,659
  6,258
  6,885
  7,540
  8,223
  8,935
  9,675
  10,444
  11,244
  12,075
  12,939
  13,837
  14,771
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  220
  198
  286
  384
  490
  601
  713
  821
  923
  1,012
  1,084
  1,140
  1,177
  1,191
  1,184
  1,155
  1,107
  1,042
  964
  875
  780
  682
  586
  493
  406
  328
  259
  200
  151
  111
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Stamps.com Inc. is a provider of Internet-based mailing and shipping solutions in the United States. The Company offers mailing and shipping products and services to its customers under the Stamps.com, Endicia, ShipStation, ShipWorks and ShippingEasy brands. It operates through the Internet Mailing and Shipping Services segment. Under the Stamps.com and Endicia brands, customers use its United States Postal Service (USPS) only solutions to mail and ship a range of mail pieces and packages through the USPS. USPS mailing and shipping solutions enable users to print electronic postage directly onto envelopes, plain paper, or labels using only a standard personal computer, printer and Internet connection. The Company offers USPS mailing and shipping services, multi-carrier shipping services, mailing and shipping services, branded insurance and international postage solutions. The Company offers customized postage under the PhotoStamps and PictureItPostage brand names.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Stamps.com (STMP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 47.4
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 9.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24
Price to Free Cash Flow 25.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 70.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 300%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 18
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.8%
Total Debt to Equity 39.4%
Interest Coverage 40
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital 16.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Return On Equity 24.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 82.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.9%
EBITDA Margin 38.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Operating Margin 33%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 32.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Net Profit Margin 20.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Effective Tax Rate 35.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Payout Ratio 0%

STMP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STMP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $364 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Stamps.com. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Stamps.com. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STMP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 38.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for STMP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Stamps.com, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Stamps.com.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STMP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 20.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $179 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STMP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Stamps.com.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Stamps.com. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STMP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STMP are equal to 36%.

Life of production assets of 18.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Stamps.com operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STMP is equal to -3.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $373 million for Stamps.com - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.736 million for Stamps.com is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Stamps.com at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.5 billion.

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Financial statements of STMP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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