Intrinsic value of StoneMor Partners - STON

Previous Close

$6.75

  Intrinsic Value

$5.72

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-15%

Previous close

$6.75

 
Intrinsic value

$5.72

 
Up/down potential

-15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of STON stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.88
  9.50
  9.05
  8.64
  8.28
  7.95
  7.66
  7.39
  7.15
  6.94
  6.74
  6.57
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
  6.03
  5.93
  5.83
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
Revenue, $m
  326
  357
  389
  423
  458
  494
  532
  572
  612
  655
  699
  745
  793
  843
  894
  948
  1,004
  1,063
  1,124
  1,188
  1,255
  1,324
  1,397
  1,473
  1,552
  1,636
  1,723
  1,814
  1,909
  2,009
  2,114
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  356
  388
  421
  455
  491
  528
  566
  606
  648
  691
  729
  776
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,162
  1,228
  1,296
  1,367
  1,441
  1,519
  1,600
  1,686
  1,775
  1,868
  1,966
  2,068
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  331
  356
  388
  421
  455
  491
  528
  566
  606
  648
  691
  729
  776
  824
  875
  928
  983
  1,040
  1,100
  1,162
  1,228
  1,296
  1,367
  1,441
  1,519
  1,600
  1,686
  1,775
  1,868
  1,966
  2,068
Operating income, $m
  -4
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
EBITDA, $m
  9
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  135
  142
  150
  158
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  19
  29
  39
  49
  60
  72
  84
  96
  109
  122
  136
  150
  165
  181
  197
  214
  231
  250
  269
  289
  309
  331
  354
  378
  403
  429
  456
  484
  514
  545
Earnings before tax, $m
  -29
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -47
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -471
  -500
Tax expense, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -30
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -47
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -471
  -500

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,787
  1,940
  2,116
  2,299
  2,489
  2,687
  2,893
  3,106
  3,328
  3,559
  3,799
  4,049
  4,309
  4,579
  4,860
  5,153
  5,459
  5,777
  6,109
  6,456
  6,818
  7,196
  7,591
  8,005
  8,437
  8,889
  9,362
  9,857
  10,376
  10,919
  11,488
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,774
  1,940
  2,116
  2,299
  2,489
  2,687
  2,893
  3,106
  3,328
  3,559
  3,799
  4,049
  4,309
  4,579
  4,860
  5,153
  5,459
  5,777
  6,109
  6,456
  6,818
  7,196
  7,591
  8,005
  8,437
  8,889
  9,362
  9,857
  10,376
  10,919
  11,488
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
  0.184
Average production assets, $m
  520
  569
  621
  674
  730
  788
  848
  911
  976
  1,044
  1,114
  1,188
  1,264
  1,343
  1,425
  1,511
  1,601
  1,694
  1,792
  1,894
  2,000
  2,111
  2,227
  2,348
  2,474
  2,607
  2,746
  2,891
  3,043
  3,203
  3,370
Working capital, $m
  80
  76
  83
  90
  97
  105
  113
  121
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  190
  201
  213
  225
  238
  252
  266
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
  365
  385
  405
  426
  448
Total debt, $m
  302
  449
  607
  771
  942
  1,120
  1,305
  1,498
  1,697
  1,905
  2,121
  2,345
  2,578
  2,821
  3,074
  3,338
  3,612
  3,899
  4,197
  4,509
  4,834
  5,174
  5,530
  5,901
  6,290
  6,696
  7,122
  7,567
  8,033
  8,521
  9,033
Total liabilities, $m
  1,597
  1,744
  1,902
  2,066
  2,237
  2,415
  2,600
  2,793
  2,992
  3,200
  3,416
  3,640
  3,873
  4,116
  4,369
  4,633
  4,907
  5,194
  5,492
  5,804
  6,129
  6,469
  6,825
  7,196
  7,585
  7,991
  8,417
  8,862
  9,328
  9,816
  10,328
Total equity, $m
  190
  196
  214
  232
  251
  271
  292
  314
  336
  359
  384
  409
  435
  462
  491
  520
  551
  583
  617
  652
  689
  727
  767
  808
  852
  898
  946
  996
  1,048
  1,103
  1,160
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,787
  1,940
  2,116
  2,298
  2,488
  2,686
  2,892
  3,107
  3,328
  3,559
  3,800
  4,049
  4,308
  4,578
  4,860
  5,153
  5,458
  5,777
  6,109
  6,456
  6,818
  7,196
  7,592
  8,004
  8,437
  8,889
  9,363
  9,858
  10,376
  10,919
  11,488
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.589
  2.290
  2.840
  3.320
  3.750
  4.130
  4.470
  4.770
  5.050
  5.300
  5.530
  5.730
  5.930
  6.100
  6.260
  6.410
  6.550
  6.680
  6.800
  6.910
  7.020
  7.120
  7.210
  7.300
  7.380
  7.460
  7.530
  7.600
  7.670
  7.730
  7.780
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -30
  -19
  -27
  -37
  -47
  -57
  -67
  -78
  -90
  -102
  -114
  -120
  -133
  -147
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -344
  -367
  -392
  -417
  -443
  -471
  -500
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
Funds from operations, $m
  36
  7
  0
  -7
  -15
  -23
  -32
  -41
  -50
  -60
  -70
  -80
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -227
  -244
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -342
  -364
  -388
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  23
  1
  -7
  -14
  -23
  -31
  -40
  -49
  -59
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -101
  -113
  -125
  -137
  -151
  -164
  -179
  -194
  -209
  -225
  -242
  -260
  -279
  -298
  -318
  -340
  -362
  -385
  -410
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -50
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -19
  -67
  -70
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -162
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -274
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  -66
  -77
  -89
  -101
  -114
  -127
  -140
  -154
  -169
  -184
  -200
  -217
  -234
  -252
  -271
  -291
  -311
  -333
  -355
  -378
  -403
  -429
  -456
  -484
  -513
  -544
  -577
  -611
  -646
  -684
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  149
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  243
  253
  263
  275
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
  371
  389
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  512
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  94
  35
  45
  55
  66
  77
  88
  100
  112
  125
  138
  145
  159
  174
  190
  206
  223
  241
  259
  278
  298
  319
  341
  364
  388
  413
  439
  467
  496
  526
  557
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  73
  184
  203
  219
  237
  255
  273
  292
  312
  333
  354
  369
  392
  417
  443
  469
  498
  527
  558
  590
  623
  659
  696
  735
  777
  819
  864
  912
  962
  1,014
  1,069
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  76
  119
  126
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  163
  170
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  235
  245
  256
  268
  280
  293
  306
  321
  336
  351
  368
  386
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  15
  -35
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -77
  -88
  -100
  -112
  -125
  -138
  -145
  -159
  -174
  -190
  -206
  -223
  -241
  -259
  -278
  -298
  -319
  -341
  -364
  -388
  -413
  -439
  -467
  -496
  -526
  -557
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  94
  81
  76
  70
  64
  58
  52
  45
  39
  31
  24
  17
  9
  1
  -7
  -16
  -25
  -34
  -43
  -53
  -63
  -73
  -84
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -131
  -144
  -158
  -172
Discount rate, %
 
  10.40
  10.92
  11.47
  12.04
  12.64
  13.27
  13.94
  14.63
  15.37
  16.13
  16.94
  17.79
  18.68
  19.61
  20.59
  21.62
  22.70
  23.84
  25.03
  26.28
  27.59
  28.97
  30.42
  31.94
  33.54
  35.22
  36.98
  38.83
  40.77
  42.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  85
  66
  55
  45
  36
  28
  21
  15
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.2
  74.5
  62.5
  51.6
  42.1
  33.9
  27.1
  21.4
  16.8
  13.1
  10.2
  7.9
  6.1
  4.7
  3.6
  2.7
  2.0
  1.5
  1.2
  0.9
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0

StoneMor Partners L.P. owns and operates cemeteries and funeral homes. The Company operates through two segments: Cemetery Operations and Funeral Homes. Its Cemetery Operations segment sells interment rights, caskets, burial vaults, cremation niches, markers and other cemetery related merchandise. Its Funeral Homes segment offers a range of services, including family consultation, final expense insurance products, the removal and preparation of remains, provision of caskets and related funeral merchandise, the use of funeral home facilities for visitation, worship and performance of funeral services, and transportation services. It sells cemetery products and services both at the time of death, which it refers to as at-need, and prior to the time of death, which it refers to as pre-need. It operates approximately 310 cemeteries in over 30 states and Puerto Rico, and approximately 100 funeral homes in over 20 states and Puerto Rico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  StoneMor Partners (STON)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.5
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 7
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 157.9%
Total Debt to Equity 158.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital -5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.2%
Return On Equity -15.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.9%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 75.6%
EBITDA Margin 1.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Operating Margin -1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin -8.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6%
Net Profit Margin -9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.6%
Effective Tax Rate -3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -17%
Payout Ratio -263.3%

STON stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STON stock intrinsic value calculation we used $326 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by StoneMor Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of StoneMor Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STON stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.4%, whose default value for STON is calculated based on our internal credit rating of StoneMor Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of StoneMor Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STON stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 100%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STON stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for StoneMor Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for StoneMor Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STON stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STON are equal to 159.4%.

Life of production assets of 45.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in StoneMor Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STON is equal to 21.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $190 million for StoneMor Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.957 million for StoneMor Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of StoneMor Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ StoneMor Partners L.P. Provides Partnership Updates   [Jul-28-17 07:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ 3 Awful Stocks for Retirees   [Jul-08-17 02:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Grave situation: Local public company names new CEO, CFO   [May-17-17 09:00AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Board member becomes local public company's acting COO amid turmoil   [Apr-17-17 11:30AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Read This Before You Buy Dividend Stocks   [09:09AM  Motley Fool]
▶ StoneMor Partners' CEO and Co-Founder Retiring   [Mar-28-17 05:51PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Local public company CEO announces retirement amid financial troubles   [10:22AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 3 Diversified Funds Paying Up To 9.5%   [Feb-07-17 08:37AM  at Forbes]
▶ 3 High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Avoid This Winter   [Feb-06-17 09:26AM  Motley Fool]
▶ These Dividend Stocks Could Double in 2017   [Jan-22-17 11:10AM  at Motley Fool]
Financial statements of STON
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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