Intrinsic value of Sterling Construction - STRL

Previous Close

$17.95

  Intrinsic Value

$103.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+478%

Previous close

$17.95

 
Intrinsic value

$103.68

 
Up/down potential

+478%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of STRL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.58
  29.50
  27.05
  24.85
  22.86
  21.07
  19.47
  18.02
  16.72
  15.55
  14.49
  13.54
  12.69
  11.92
  11.23
  10.60
  10.04
  9.54
  9.09
  8.68
  8.31
  7.98
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
Revenue, $m
  690
  894
  1,135
  1,417
  1,741
  2,108
  2,519
  2,973
  3,470
  4,009
  4,590
  5,212
  5,873
  6,573
  7,311
  8,086
  8,898
  9,747
  10,633
  11,555
  12,516
  13,514
  14,552
  15,631
  16,752
  17,917
  19,128
  20,387
  21,697
  23,060
  24,479
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  770
  977
  1,219
  1,496
  1,810
  2,162
  2,550
  2,976
  3,437
  3,935
  4,461
  5,027
  5,626
  6,258
  6,922
  7,617
  8,344
  9,102
  9,892
  10,714
  11,568
  12,457
  13,380
  14,340
  15,337
  16,374
  17,452
  18,573
  19,740
  20,954
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  104
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  158
  161
  166
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
Total operating expenses, $m
  695
  874
  1,083
  1,328
  1,607
  1,924
  2,279
  2,670
  3,099
  3,563
  4,064
  4,594
  5,163
  5,765
  6,401
  7,068
  7,767
  8,498
  9,260
  10,053
  10,880
  11,738
  12,631
  13,558
  14,523
  15,524
  16,566
  17,649
  18,775
  19,947
  21,166
Operating income, $m
  -5
  20
  52
  90
  134
  184
  240
  302
  371
  446
  526
  618
  710
  807
  910
  1,018
  1,131
  1,250
  1,373
  1,502
  1,636
  1,776
  1,921
  2,072
  2,229
  2,392
  2,562
  2,738
  2,922
  3,113
  3,312
EBITDA, $m
  11
  37
  72
  114
  162
  217
  278
  347
  422
  503
  591
  686
  786
  893
  1,005
  1,123
  1,247
  1,377
  1,512
  1,653
  1,800
  1,952
  2,111
  2,276
  2,447
  2,626
  2,811
  3,004
  3,205
  3,414
  3,632
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  0
  14
  30
  49
  70
  94
  122
  152
  185
  221
  259
  300
  344
  391
  440
  491
  545
  602
  660
  722
  785
  852
  921
  992
  1,067
  1,144
  1,224
  1,308
  1,395
  1,485
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  19
  38
  60
  85
  114
  146
  181
  219
  261
  305
  359
  409
  463
  519
  578
  640
  704
  772
  842
  915
  991
  1,070
  1,152
  1,237
  1,326
  1,418
  1,514
  1,614
  1,718
  1,827
Tax expense, $m
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  31
  39
  49
  59
  70
  82
  97
  110
  125
  140
  156
  173
  190
  208
  227
  247
  267
  289
  311
  334
  358
  383
  409
  436
  464
  493
Net income, $m
  -9
  14
  28
  44
  62
  83
  106
  132
  160
  190
  223
  262
  299
  338
  379
  422
  467
  514
  563
  615
  668
  723
  781
  841
  903
  968
  1,035
  1,105
  1,178
  1,254
  1,334

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  302
  335
  426
  532
  654
  791
  945
  1,116
  1,302
  1,505
  1,723
  1,956
  2,204
  2,467
  2,744
  3,035
  3,340
  3,659
  3,991
  4,338
  4,698
  5,073
  5,462
  5,867
  6,288
  6,725
  7,180
  7,653
  8,144
  8,656
  9,189
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  259
  335
  426
  532
  654
  791
  945
  1,116
  1,302
  1,505
  1,723
  1,956
  2,204
  2,467
  2,744
  3,035
  3,340
  3,659
  3,991
  4,338
  4,698
  5,073
  5,462
  5,867
  6,288
  6,725
  7,180
  7,653
  8,144
  8,656
  9,189
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.664
  2.669
  2.664
  2.664
  2.662
  2.665
  2.666
  2.664
  2.665
  2.664
  2.664
  2.665
  2.665
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
  2.664
Average production assets, $m
  71
  92
  117
  146
  179
  217
  259
  306
  357
  413
  473
  537
  605
  677
  753
  833
  917
  1,004
  1,095
  1,190
  1,289
  1,392
  1,499
  1,610
  1,725
  1,845
  1,970
  2,100
  2,235
  2,375
  2,521
Working capital, $m
  29
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -30
  -35
  -42
  -49
  -56
  -64
  -73
  -82
  -92
  -102
  -113
  -125
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -235
  -251
  -268
  -285
  -304
  -323
  -343
Total debt, $m
  5
  57
  124
  202
  292
  393
  507
  632
  770
  919
  1,080
  1,252
  1,435
  1,628
  1,833
  2,047
  2,272
  2,507
  2,752
  3,007
  3,272
  3,549
  3,836
  4,134
  4,444
  4,767
  5,102
  5,450
  5,812
  6,189
  6,582
Total liabilities, $m
  194
  247
  314
  392
  482
  583
  697
  822
  960
  1,109
  1,270
  1,442
  1,625
  1,818
  2,023
  2,237
  2,462
  2,697
  2,942
  3,197
  3,462
  3,739
  4,026
  4,324
  4,634
  4,957
  5,292
  5,640
  6,002
  6,379
  6,772
Total equity, $m
  107
  88
  112
  140
  172
  208
  249
  293
  343
  396
  453
  514
  580
  649
  722
  798
  878
  962
  1,050
  1,141
  1,236
  1,334
  1,437
  1,543
  1,654
  1,769
  1,888
  2,013
  2,142
  2,277
  2,417
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  301
  335
  426
  532
  654
  791
  946
  1,115
  1,303
  1,505
  1,723
  1,956
  2,205
  2,467
  2,745
  3,035
  3,340
  3,659
  3,992
  4,338
  4,698
  5,073
  5,463
  5,867
  6,288
  6,726
  7,180
  7,653
  8,144
  8,656
  9,189
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.047
  0.650
  1.110
  1.440
  1.700
  1.890
  2.040
  2.150
  2.250
  2.320
  2.380
  2.430
  2.470
  2.510
  2.540
  2.560
  2.590
  2.600
  2.620
  2.640
  2.650
  2.660
  2.670
  2.680
  2.690
  2.690
  2.700
  2.710
  2.710
  2.720
  2.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.247
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263
  0.263

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  14
  28
  44
  62
  83
  106
  132
  160
  190
  223
  262
  299
  338
  379
  422
  467
  514
  563
  615
  668
  723
  781
  841
  903
  968
  1,035
  1,105
  1,178
  1,254
  1,334
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  51
  58
  65
  68
  77
  86
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  163
  176
  190
  204
  218
  234
  249
  266
  283
  301
  319
Funds from operations, $m
  79
  31
  48
  68
  90
  116
  145
  176
  211
  248
  288
  330
  375
  423
  474
  527
  583
  641
  702
  765
  831
  899
  970
  1,044
  1,121
  1,201
  1,284
  1,371
  1,461
  1,555
  1,653
Change in working capital, $m
  34
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from operations, $m
  45
  34
  51
  72
  95
  121
  150
  183
  218
  256
  296
  338
  385
  433
  485
  538
  594
  653
  714
  778
  844
  913
  985
  1,060
  1,137
  1,218
  1,301
  1,389
  1,479
  1,574
  1,673
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -68
  -77
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -127
  -139
  -151
  -163
  -176
  -190
  -204
  -218
  -234
  -249
  -266
  -283
  -301
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -140
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -51
  -61
  -69
  -80
  -90
  -101
  -112
  -124
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -189
  -203
  -218
  -234
  -250
  -266
  -283
  -301
  -319
  -338
  -359
  -379
  -401
  -423
  -447
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  4
  15
  28
  43
  61
  81
  103
  128
  155
  184
  215
  249
  285
  323
  363
  405
  450
  496
  544
  595
  647
  702
  759
  818
  879
  943
  1,010
  1,079
  1,151
  1,226
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -16
  56
  67
  78
  90
  102
  114
  126
  137
  149
  161
  172
  183
  194
  204
  214
  225
  235
  245
  255
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  19
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  62
  67
  78
  90
  102
  114
  126
  137
  149
  161
  172
  183
  194
  204
  214
  225
  235
  245
  255
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  362
  377
  393
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  38
  66
  82
  106
  133
  162
  194
  229
  265
  304
  345
  387
  431
  478
  527
  578
  630
  685
  741
  800
  860
  924
  989
  1,057
  1,128
  1,201
  1,278
  1,358
  1,441
  1,528
  1,618
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -11
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  58
  78
  101
  126
  154
  184
  216
  251
  288
  325
  366
  409
  454
  501
  550
  601
  654
  709
  766
  825
  887
  951
  1,017
  1,086
  1,159
  1,234
  1,312
  1,393
  1,478
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  82
  53
  68
  83
  98
  112
  124
  135
  144
  151
  154
  156
  156
  152
  147
  140
  131
  120
  109
  97
  85
  74
  62
  52
  42
  34
  26
  20
  15
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1
  98.1

Sterling Construction Company, Inc. is a heavy civil construction company engaged in the building and reconstruction of transportation and water infrastructure projects in Texas, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California, Hawaii and other states. The Company's transportation infrastructure projects include highways, roads, bridges, airfields, ports and light rail. Its water infrastructure projects include water, wastewater and storm drainage systems. The Company operates through heavy civil construction segment. The Company provides its services by using traditional general contracting arrangements, such as lump sum contracts and cost-plus contracts. The Company serves various markets in the United States, including Texas, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, California and Hawaii. The Company's customers include departments of transportation in various states (DOTs), regional transit authorities, airport authorities, port authorities, water authorities and railroads.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sterling Construction (STRL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -49.8
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 37.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 11
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.9%
Total Debt to Equity 4.7%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Total Capital -7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.4%
Return On Equity -8.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.3%
Asset Turnover 2.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
EBITDA Margin 1.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Operating Margin -0.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.5%
Net Profit Margin -1.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

STRL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STRL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $690 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sterling Construction. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Sterling Construction. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STRL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for STRL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sterling Construction, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sterling Construction.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STRL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $101 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STRL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 24% for Sterling Construction.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sterling Construction. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STRL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STRL are equal to 10.3%.

Life of production assets of 7.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sterling Construction operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STRL is equal to -1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $107 million for Sterling Construction - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 27.03 million for Sterling Construction is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sterling Construction at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sterling Construction Announces a Director Retirement   [Dec-06-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Top-Rated Stocks: Sterling Construction Sees Composite Rating Climb To 97   [Nov-08-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Sterling Consolidated Corp. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-31-17 07:26AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Sterling Construction posts 3Q profit   [Oct-30-17 06:07PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sterling Construction posts 2Q profit   [12:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sterling Construction reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 06:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Heavy civil construction company names new CEO   [04:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sterling Construction reports 4Q loss   [06:34AM  Associated Press]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Sterling Construction Company, Inc. (STRL)   [Dec-14-16 02:01AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of STRL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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