Intrinsic value of Seagate Technology - STX

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$42.67

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of STX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 12.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -18.77
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  11,160
  11,383
  11,645
  11,944
  12,280
  12,653
  13,061
  13,506
  13,987
  14,506
  15,063
  15,658
  16,294
  16,971
  17,690
  18,453
  19,261
  20,117
  21,023
  21,979
  22,989
  24,055
  25,178
  26,363
  27,611
  28,925
  30,309
  31,766
  33,299
  34,912
  36,608
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,266
  4,362
  4,470
  4,593
  4,728
  4,877
  5,039
  5,214
  5,403
  5,605
  5,698
  5,930
  6,176
  6,438
  6,715
  7,010
  7,321
  7,650
  7,999
  8,366
  8,754
  9,163
  9,594
  10,048
  10,526
  11,030
  11,560
  12,118
  12,705
  13,322
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  6,865
  7,037
  7,213
  7,393
  7,578
  7,768
  7,962
  8,161
  8,365
  8,574
  8,788
  9,008
  9,233
  9,464
  9,701
  9,943
  10,192
  10,447
  10,708
  10,975
  11,250
  11,531
  11,819
  12,115
  12,418
  12,728
  13,046
  13,373
  13,707
  14,050
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,715
  11,131
  11,399
  11,683
  11,986
  12,306
  12,645
  13,001
  13,375
  13,768
  14,179
  14,486
  14,938
  15,409
  15,902
  16,416
  16,953
  17,513
  18,097
  18,707
  19,341
  20,004
  20,694
  21,413
  22,163
  22,944
  23,758
  24,606
  25,491
  26,412
  27,372
Operating income, $m
  445
  252
  246
  261
  294
  346
  417
  505
  613
  739
  884
  1,172
  1,356
  1,561
  1,788
  2,037
  2,309
  2,605
  2,926
  3,273
  3,647
  4,051
  4,484
  4,950
  5,448
  5,981
  6,551
  7,160
  7,808
  8,500
  9,236
EBITDA, $m
  1,260
  910
  917
  946
  995
  1,065
  1,154
  1,264
  1,394
  1,544
  1,715
  1,908
  2,122
  2,359
  2,619
  2,904
  3,214
  3,550
  3,914
  4,306
  4,728
  5,181
  5,668
  6,189
  6,746
  7,341
  7,976
  8,653
  9,374
  10,141
  10,957
Interest expense (income), $m
  200
  200
  195
  202
  210
  220
  230
  242
  254
  267
  282
  298
  314
  332
  351
  371
  392
  415
  439
  464
  491
  519
  549
  581
  614
  649
  685
  724
  765
  808
  853
Earnings before tax, $m
  274
  51
  52
  59
  84
  127
  186
  264
  359
  471
  602
  874
  1,042
  1,229
  1,437
  1,666
  1,916
  2,190
  2,487
  2,808
  3,156
  3,532
  3,935
  4,369
  4,834
  5,333
  5,866
  6,435
  7,043
  7,692
  8,383
Tax expense, $m
  26
  14
  14
  16
  23
  34
  50
  71
  97
  127
  162
  236
  281
  332
  388
  450
  517
  591
  671
  758
  852
  954
  1,063
  1,180
  1,305
  1,440
  1,584
  1,738
  1,902
  2,077
  2,263
Net income, $m
  248
  37
  38
  43
  61
  92
  136
  193
  262
  344
  439
  638
  761
  897
  1,049
  1,216
  1,399
  1,598
  1,815
  2,050
  2,304
  2,578
  2,873
  3,189
  3,529
  3,893
  4,282
  4,698
  5,142
  5,615
  6,120

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,131
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,213
  7,223
  7,389
  7,579
  7,792
  8,028
  8,287
  8,570
  8,875
  9,204
  9,558
  9,936
  10,339
  10,768
  11,224
  11,709
  12,222
  12,765
  13,339
  13,946
  14,587
  15,263
  15,976
  16,728
  17,520
  18,354
  19,232
  20,156
  21,129
  22,152
  23,228
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,082
  7,223
  7,389
  7,579
  7,792
  8,028
  8,287
  8,570
  8,875
  9,204
  9,558
  9,936
  10,339
  10,768
  11,224
  11,709
  12,222
  12,765
  13,339
  13,946
  14,587
  15,263
  15,976
  16,728
  17,520
  18,354
  19,232
  20,156
  21,129
  22,152
  23,228
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
Average production assets, $m
  2,628
  2,675
  2,737
  2,807
  2,886
  2,973
  3,069
  3,174
  3,287
  3,409
  3,540
  3,680
  3,829
  3,988
  4,157
  4,336
  4,526
  4,728
  4,940
  5,165
  5,402
  5,653
  5,917
  6,195
  6,489
  6,797
  7,123
  7,465
  7,825
  8,204
  8,603
Working capital, $m
  1,284
  159
  163
  167
  172
  177
  183
  189
  196
  203
  211
  219
  228
  238
  248
  258
  270
  282
  294
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  387
  405
  424
  445
  466
  489
  513
Total debt, $m
  4,091
  3,972
  4,121
  4,292
  4,484
  4,696
  4,930
  5,184
  5,459
  5,755
  6,073
  6,413
  6,776
  7,162
  7,573
  8,009
  8,471
  8,959
  9,476
  10,023
  10,599
  11,208
  11,850
  12,526
  13,239
  13,989
  14,780
  15,612
  16,487
  17,408
  18,377
Total liabilities, $m
  6,620
  6,501
  6,650
  6,821
  7,013
  7,225
  7,459
  7,713
  7,988
  8,284
  8,602
  8,942
  9,305
  9,691
  10,102
  10,538
  11,000
  11,488
  12,005
  12,552
  13,128
  13,737
  14,379
  15,055
  15,768
  16,518
  17,309
  18,141
  19,016
  19,937
  20,906
Total equity, $m
  1,593
  722
  739
  758
  779
  803
  829
  857
  888
  920
  956
  994
  1,034
  1,077
  1,122
  1,171
  1,222
  1,276
  1,334
  1,395
  1,459
  1,526
  1,598
  1,673
  1,752
  1,835
  1,923
  2,016
  2,113
  2,215
  2,323
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,213
  7,223
  7,389
  7,579
  7,792
  8,028
  8,288
  8,570
  8,876
  9,204
  9,558
  9,936
  10,339
  10,768
  11,224
  11,709
  12,222
  12,764
  13,339
  13,947
  14,587
  15,263
  15,977
  16,728
  17,520
  18,353
  19,232
  20,157
  21,129
  22,152
  23,229
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.568
  5.500
  5.580
  5.660
  5.750
  5.850
  5.950
  6.050
  6.150
  6.250
  6.350
  6.450
  6.550
  6.650
  6.750
  6.840
  6.930
  7.020
  7.100
  7.190
  7.270
  7.340
  7.420
  7.490
  7.560
  7.620
  7.680
  7.750
  7.800
  7.860
  7.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.065
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  248
  37
  38
  43
  61
  92
  136
  193
  262
  344
  439
  638
  761
  897
  1,049
  1,216
  1,399
  1,598
  1,815
  2,050
  2,304
  2,578
  2,873
  3,189
  3,529
  3,893
  4,282
  4,698
  5,142
  5,615
  6,120
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  815
  659
  671
  685
  701
  718
  738
  758
  781
  805
  832
  736
  766
  798
  831
  867
  905
  946
  988
  1,033
  1,080
  1,131
  1,183
  1,239
  1,298
  1,359
  1,425
  1,493
  1,565
  1,641
  1,721
Funds from operations, $m
  2,144
  696
  709
  728
  762
  811
  874
  951
  1,043
  1,149
  1,271
  1,374
  1,526
  1,695
  1,880
  2,083
  2,304
  2,544
  2,803
  3,083
  3,385
  3,709
  4,056
  4,428
  4,827
  5,252
  5,706
  6,191
  6,707
  7,256
  7,840
Change in working capital, $m
  464
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
Cash from operations, $m
  1,680
  673
  705
  724
  757
  806
  868
  945
  1,036
  1,142
  1,263
  1,366
  1,518
  1,686
  1,870
  2,073
  2,293
  2,532
  2,791
  3,070
  3,371
  3,694
  4,040
  4,412
  4,809
  5,234
  5,687
  6,170
  6,685
  7,233
  7,817
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -526
  -535
  -547
  -561
  -577
  -595
  -614
  -635
  -657
  -682
  -708
  -736
  -766
  -798
  -831
  -867
  -905
  -946
  -988
  -1,033
  -1,080
  -1,131
  -1,183
  -1,239
  -1,298
  -1,359
  -1,425
  -1,493
  -1,565
  -1,641
New CAPEX, $m
  -587
  -47
  -62
  -70
  -79
  -87
  -96
  -105
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -190
  -201
  -213
  -225
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -399
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,211
  -573
  -597
  -617
  -640
  -664
  -691
  -719
  -748
  -779
  -813
  -848
  -885
  -925
  -967
  -1,010
  -1,057
  -1,106
  -1,159
  -1,213
  -1,270
  -1,330
  -1,395
  -1,461
  -1,532
  -1,607
  -1,684
  -1,767
  -1,853
  -1,944
  -2,040
Free cash flow, $m
  469
  100
  109
  106
  117
  141
  177
  226
  288
  363
  450
  518
  632
  761
  904
  1,062
  1,236
  1,425
  1,632
  1,857
  2,100
  2,363
  2,646
  2,950
  3,277
  3,627
  4,002
  4,404
  4,832
  5,289
  5,777
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -22
  -119
  150
  171
  192
  213
  233
  254
  275
  296
  318
  340
  363
  386
  411
  436
  462
  489
  517
  546
  577
  609
  642
  676
  713
  751
  790
  832
  875
  921
  969
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1,011
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1,093
  -119
  150
  171
  192
  213
  233
  254
  275
  296
  318
  340
  363
  386
  411
  436
  462
  489
  517
  546
  577
  609
  642
  676
  713
  751
  790
  832
  875
  921
  969
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -627
  -19
  258
  277
  309
  353
  411
  480
  563
  659
  768
  858
  995
  1,147
  1,314
  1,498
  1,697
  1,914
  2,149
  2,403
  2,677
  2,971
  3,288
  3,627
  3,990
  4,378
  4,793
  5,235
  5,707
  6,210
  6,746
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1,425
  -260
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,131
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  851
  242
  258
  288
  330
  385
  452
  533
  626
  733
  820
  955
  1,104
  1,269
  1,449
  1,646
  1,860
  2,092
  2,342
  2,613
  2,904
  3,216
  3,551
  3,910
  4,295
  4,705
  5,143
  5,610
  6,108
  6,638
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  799
  211
  209
  214
  224
  237
  250
  262
  271
  277
  267
  265
  257
  246
  230
  210
  189
  166
  142
  119
  98
  78
  61
  47
  34
  25
  17
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Seagate Technology public limited company designs, produces, and distributes electronic data storage technology and solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers hard drives, solid state hybrid drives, solid state drives, PCIe cards, and serial advanced technology architecture controllers for mission critical and nearline applications in enterprise servers and storage systems; client compute applications, including desktop and mobile computing; client non-compute applications, such as digital video recorders, personal data backup and portable external storage systems, and digital media and surveillance systems. It also provides storage subsystems and high performance computing solutions; and ships external backup storage solutions under the Backup Plus and Expansion product lines, as well as under the Maxtor and LaCie brand names. The company sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. Seagate Technology public limited company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seagate Technology (STX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 51.4
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -18.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 256.8%
Total Debt to Equity 256.8%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.4%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.2%
Return On Equity 10.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 72%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 23.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.4%
EBITDA Margin 11.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.6%
Operating Margin 4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Effective Tax Rate 9.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Payout Ratio 293.1%

STX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $11160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seagate Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Seagate Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for STX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seagate Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seagate Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $6698 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for Seagate Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seagate Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STX are equal to 23.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seagate Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STX is equal to 1.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1593 million for Seagate Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 298.302 million for Seagate Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seagate Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $12.7 billion.


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Stock chart of STX Financial statements of STX Annual reports of STX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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