Intrinsic value of Summer Infant - SUMR

Previous Close

$1.74

  Intrinsic Value

$0.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-89%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$1.74

 
Intrinsic value

$0.20

 
Up/down potential

-89%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SUMR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.83
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  194
  202
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  407
  427
  448
  469
  492
  516
  541
  568
  596
  625
  656
  688
  722
  758
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  466
  489
  512
  537
  564
  591
  620
  651
  683
  717
  752
  789
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  197
  210
  218
  227
  237
  247
  258
  269
  281
  294
  307
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  444
  466
  489
  512
  537
  564
  591
  620
  651
  683
  717
  752
  789
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
EBITDA, $m
  2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Earnings before tax, $m
  -6
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -4
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  102
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  342
  358
  376
  395
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  342
  358
  376
  395
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.921
  1.924
  1.927
  1.912
  1.924
  1.927
  1.915
  1.911
  1.915
  1.918
  1.916
  1.919
  1.923
  1.920
  1.924
  1.922
  1.926
  1.920
  1.923
  1.923
  1.922
  1.922
  1.918
  1.918
  1.919
  1.923
  1.923
  1.918
  1.922
  1.920
  1.919
Average production assets, $m
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
Working capital, $m
  30
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  115
  120
  126
  133
Total debt, $m
  46
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  109
  116
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
Total liabilities, $m
  87
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
Total equity, $m
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  102
  105
  109
  114
  119
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  342
  358
  376
  395
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.067
  3.090
  3.190
  3.290
  3.390
  3.480
  3.580
  3.670
  3.750
  3.840
  3.920
  4.000
  4.080
  4.150
  4.220
  4.290
  4.350
  4.410
  4.470
  4.530
  4.590
  4.640
  4.690
  4.740
  4.780
  4.820
  4.870
  4.910
  4.940
  4.980
  5.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.139
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149
  0.149

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -4
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -43
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  9
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  19
  19
  20
  21
  23
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  47
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
Discount rate, %
 
  11.70
  12.29
  12.90
  13.54
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.04
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.73
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  75.6
  57.2
  43.2
  32.5
  24.5
  18.4
  13.8
  10.3
  7.7
  5.7
  4.3
  3.2
  2.4
  1.8
  1.3
  1.0
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Summer Infant, Inc. is an infant and juvenile products company. The Company is engaged in the juvenile industry, providing mothers and caregivers a range of products to care for babies and toddlers. As of December 31, 2016, it marketed over 1,100 products in several product categories, including monitoring, safety, nursery, baby gear and feeding products. It markets its products, under its Summer Infant, SwaddleMe and Born Free brand names. Its anchor products in its product categories include monitoring, such as wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi)/Internet, video, audio and prenatal; safety, including gates, bath, potties, boosters and positioners; nursery, such as swaddle, travel accessories, safe sleep, soothers and sleep aides; baby gear, including strollers, bassinets, high chairs and playards, and feeding products, such as bottles, drinking cups, bibs and placemats, electronics and pacifiers. It sells its products across the globe to national retailers, as well as independent retailers.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Summer Infant (SUMR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -8.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 273.3%
Total Debt to Equity 306.7%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -6.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.8%
Return On Equity -23.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.6%
Asset Turnover 1.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.6%
EBITDA Margin 0.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Operating Margin -1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Net Profit Margin -2.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SUMR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SUMR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $194 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Summer Infant. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Summer Infant. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SUMR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.7%, whose default value for SUMR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Summer Infant, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Summer Infant.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SUMR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 104.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SUMR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for Summer Infant.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Summer Infant. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SUMR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SUMR are equal to 14.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Summer Infant operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SUMR is equal to 17.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $15 million for Summer Infant - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.166 million for Summer Infant is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Summer Infant at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ SwaddleMe Announces New Products This Fall   [Oct-17-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for August 29th   [Aug-29-17 10:12AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for August 11th   [Aug-11-17 08:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Summer Infant Reports Second Quarter Results   [Aug-02-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Summer Infant, Inc. : May 25, 2017   [May-25-17 12:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 17th   [May-17-17 10:17AM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Summer Infant, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Summer Infant Reports First Quarter Results   [May-03-17 04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 31st   [Mar-31-17 10:37AM  Zacks]
▶ Summer Infant Reports Fourth Quarter Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Compact Strollers That Make Traveling a Breeze   [Dec-15-16 07:03PM  Consumer Reports]
▶ Summer Infant Appoints New Chief Product Officer   [Nov-17-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Summer Infant Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Summer Infant Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Summer Infant Announces Upcoming Investor Events   [Jun-03-16 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Summer Infant Reports First Quarter Results   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Summer Infant Enters Into Amended Credit Agreement   [Dec-11  04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Smart Money Is Trading Alphatec Holdings Inc (ATEC)   [Nov-24  12:47PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Summer Infant Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of SUMR
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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