Intrinsic value of Superior Industries International - SUP

Previous Close

$15.10

  Intrinsic Value

$4.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-74%

Previous close

$15.10

 
Intrinsic value

$4.00

 
Up/down potential

-74%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SUP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.69
  31.70
  29.03
  26.63
  24.46
  22.52
  20.77
  19.19
  17.77
  16.49
  15.34
  14.31
  13.38
  12.54
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.45
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
Revenue, $m
  733
  965
  1,246
  1,577
  1,963
  2,405
  2,905
  3,462
  4,077
  4,750
  5,479
  6,263
  7,100
  7,991
  8,933
  9,925
  10,967
  12,058
  13,198
  14,386
  15,625
  16,913
  18,253
  19,645
  21,092
  22,596
  24,159
  25,784
  27,473
  29,231
  31,060
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  918
  1,185
  1,500
  1,867
  2,287
  2,762
  3,292
  3,877
  4,517
  5,210
  5,956
  6,752
  7,599
  8,495
  9,439
  10,429
  11,467
  12,551
  13,681
  14,859
  16,084
  17,358
  18,683
  20,059
  21,489
  22,975
  24,520
  26,127
  27,799
  29,538
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  678
  918
  1,185
  1,500
  1,867
  2,287
  2,762
  3,292
  3,877
  4,517
  5,210
  5,956
  6,752
  7,599
  8,495
  9,439
  10,429
  11,467
  12,551
  13,681
  14,859
  16,084
  17,358
  18,683
  20,059
  21,489
  22,975
  24,520
  26,127
  27,799
  29,538
Operating income, $m
  55
  47
  61
  77
  96
  118
  142
  170
  200
  233
  268
  307
  348
  392
  438
  486
  537
  591
  647
  705
  766
  829
  894
  963
  1,034
  1,107
  1,184
  1,263
  1,346
  1,432
  1,522
EBITDA, $m
  89
  92
  119
  150
  187
  229
  277
  330
  389
  453
  522
  597
  677
  762
  851
  946
  1,045
  1,149
  1,258
  1,371
  1,489
  1,612
  1,740
  1,873
  2,011
  2,154
  2,303
  2,458
  2,619
  2,786
  2,961
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  86
  95
  103
  112
  122
  131
  141
  152
  162
  174
  185
  198
Earnings before tax, $m
  55
  47
  59
  74
  90
  109
  131
  155
  181
  210
  241
  274
  310
  347
  387
  429
  474
  520
  568
  618
  671
  725
  782
  841
  902
  966
  1,032
  1,101
  1,172
  1,247
  1,324
Tax expense, $m
  14
  13
  16
  20
  24
  30
  35
  42
  49
  57
  65
  74
  84
  94
  105
  116
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  261
  279
  297
  317
  337
  358
Net income, $m
  41
  35
  43
  54
  66
  80
  95
  113
  132
  153
  176
  200
  226
  254
  283
  313
  346
  379
  415
  451
  490
  530
  571
  614
  659
  705
  753
  804
  856
  910
  967

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  543
  638
  823
  1,042
  1,297
  1,589
  1,919
  2,287
  2,693
  3,137
  3,619
  4,136
  4,690
  5,278
  5,900
  6,555
  7,244
  7,964
  8,717
  9,502
  10,320
  11,171
  12,056
  12,976
  13,932
  14,925
  15,957
  17,030
  18,146
  19,307
  20,515
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  484
  638
  823
  1,042
  1,297
  1,589
  1,919
  2,287
  2,693
  3,137
  3,619
  4,136
  4,690
  5,278
  5,900
  6,555
  7,244
  7,964
  8,717
  9,502
  10,320
  11,171
  12,056
  12,976
  13,932
  14,925
  15,957
  17,030
  18,146
  19,307
  20,515
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.514
  1.513
  1.514
  1.513
  1.513
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
  1.514
Average production assets, $m
  231
  304
  392
  497
  618
  758
  915
  1,091
  1,284
  1,496
  1,726
  1,973
  2,237
  2,517
  2,814
  3,126
  3,455
  3,798
  4,157
  4,532
  4,922
  5,328
  5,750
  6,188
  6,644
  7,118
  7,610
  8,122
  8,654
  9,208
  9,784
Working capital, $m
  168
  144
  186
  235
  293
  358
  433
  516
  608
  708
  816
  933
  1,058
  1,191
  1,331
  1,479
  1,634
  1,797
  1,966
  2,144
  2,328
  2,520
  2,720
  2,927
  3,143
  3,367
  3,600
  3,842
  4,094
  4,355
  4,628
Total debt, $m
  0
  46
  102
  168
  244
  332
  431
  541
  663
  796
  941
  1,096
  1,262
  1,438
  1,625
  1,822
  2,028
  2,244
  2,470
  2,706
  2,951
  3,206
  3,472
  3,748
  4,034
  4,332
  4,642
  4,964
  5,299
  5,647
  6,010
Total liabilities, $m
  145
  191
  247
  313
  389
  477
  576
  686
  808
  941
  1,086
  1,241
  1,407
  1,583
  1,770
  1,967
  2,173
  2,389
  2,615
  2,851
  3,096
  3,351
  3,617
  3,893
  4,179
  4,477
  4,787
  5,109
  5,444
  5,792
  6,155
Total equity, $m
  398
  446
  576
  729
  908
  1,112
  1,343
  1,601
  1,885
  2,196
  2,533
  2,895
  3,283
  3,695
  4,130
  4,589
  5,071
  5,575
  6,102
  6,652
  7,224
  7,820
  8,439
  9,083
  9,752
  10,447
  11,170
  11,921
  12,702
  13,515
  14,361
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  543
  637
  823
  1,042
  1,297
  1,589
  1,919
  2,287
  2,693
  3,137
  3,619
  4,136
  4,690
  5,278
  5,900
  6,556
  7,244
  7,964
  8,717
  9,503
  10,320
  11,171
  12,056
  12,976
  13,931
  14,924
  15,957
  17,030
  18,146
  19,307
  20,516
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.100
  0.180
  0.230
  0.270
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700
  0.700

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  41
  35
  43
  54
  66
  80
  95
  113
  132
  153
  176
  200
  226
  254
  283
  313
  346
  379
  415
  451
  490
  530
  571
  614
  659
  705
  753
  804
  856
  910
  967
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  45
  58
  73
  91
  111
  135
  160
  189
  220
  254
  290
  329
  370
  414
  460
  508
  559
  611
  666
  724
  783
  846
  910
  977
  1,047
  1,119
  1,194
  1,273
  1,354
  1,439
Funds from operations, $m
  81
  79
  101
  127
  157
  191
  230
  273
  321
  373
  429
  490
  555
  624
  697
  773
  854
  938
  1,026
  1,118
  1,214
  1,313
  1,417
  1,524
  1,636
  1,752
  1,873
  1,998
  2,129
  2,264
  2,406
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  35
  42
  49
  57
  66
  74
  83
  92
  100
  109
  117
  125
  133
  140
  148
  155
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  207
  216
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
Cash from operations, $m
  78
  45
  59
  77
  99
  125
  156
  190
  229
  273
  321
  373
  430
  491
  556
  625
  699
  775
  856
  941
  1,029
  1,121
  1,217
  1,317
  1,420
  1,528
  1,640
  1,756
  1,877
  2,002
  2,133
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -34
  -45
  -58
  -73
  -91
  -111
  -135
  -160
  -189
  -220
  -254
  -290
  -329
  -370
  -414
  -460
  -508
  -559
  -611
  -666
  -724
  -783
  -846
  -910
  -977
  -1,047
  -1,119
  -1,194
  -1,273
  -1,354
New CAPEX, $m
  -40
  -73
  -88
  -104
  -122
  -139
  -157
  -176
  -194
  -212
  -230
  -247
  -264
  -280
  -297
  -313
  -328
  -344
  -359
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -422
  -439
  -456
  -474
  -492
  -512
  -532
  -554
  -576
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -35
  -107
  -133
  -162
  -195
  -230
  -268
  -311
  -354
  -401
  -450
  -501
  -554
  -609
  -667
  -727
  -788
  -852
  -918
  -985
  -1,056
  -1,130
  -1,205
  -1,285
  -1,366
  -1,451
  -1,539
  -1,631
  -1,726
  -1,827
  -1,930
Free cash flow, $m
  43
  -62
  -74
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -113
  -120
  -125
  -128
  -129
  -127
  -124
  -118
  -111
  -101
  -89
  -76
  -61
  -45
  -27
  -9
  11
  32
  54
  77
  101
  125
  150
  176
  203
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  46
  56
  66
  76
  88
  99
  110
  122
  133
  144
  155
  166
  176
  187
  197
  206
  216
  226
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  287
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  362
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -19
  73
  86
  100
  112
  125
  136
  145
  152
  158
  161
  162
  161
  158
  153
  145
  136
  125
  112
  98
  83
  66
  48
  30
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -19
  119
  142
  166
  188
  213
  235
  255
  274
  291
  305
  317
  327
  334
  340
  342
  342
  341
  338
  334
  328
  321
  313
  306
  297
  298
  310
  322
  335
  348
  362
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  57
  68
  81
  94
  107
  121
  135
  149
  163
  177
  190
  203
  216
  229
  241
  253
  265
  277
  289
  301
  313
  325
  338
  351
  375
  410
  447
  485
  524
  565
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  16
  -107
  -130
  -153
  -178
  -204
  -231
  -258
  -284
  -311
  -337
  -362
  -387
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -482
  -504
  -527
  -550
  -572
  -596
  -619
  -644
  -669
  -695
  -723
  -751
  -781
  -813
  -846
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -62
  -73
  -85
  -97
  -110
  -122
  -135
  -148
  -160
  -172
  -184
  -195
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -306
  -318
  -320
  -312
  -304
  -296
  -288
  -281
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  8
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -83
  -84
  -85
  -84
  -82
  -78
  -74
  -69
  -64
  -58
  -52
  -46
  -40
  -35
  -29
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  81.5
  67.7
  57.2
  49.2
  42.9
  38.0
  34.1
  31.0
  28.5
  26.4
  24.7
  23.4
  22.2
  21.3
  20.5
  19.9
  19.4
  19.0
  18.7
  18.4
  18.3
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1
  18.1

Superior Industries International, Inc. is engaged in the design and manufacture of aluminum wheels for sale to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The Company supplies cast aluminum wheels to automobile and light truck manufacturers, with wheel manufacturing operations in the United States and Mexico. The Company offers wheels in a range of finishes, which include Bright Machined, Polished Face with Painted Window, Fully Painted, Premium Paint, Polished, Chrome Clad and Mirror Finish Ultra Bright Machining. The Company's products, which are manufactured in its North American facilities, are delivered primarily to automotive assembly operations in North America for global OEMs. Its OEM aluminum wheels are primarily sold for factory installation, as either optional or standard equipment, on various vehicle models. As of December 31, 2015, the Company operated five manufacturing facilities in the United States and Mexico.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Superior Industries International (SUP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -10.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Total Capital 10.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Equity 10.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 7.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 25.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.5%
Payout Ratio 43.9%

SUP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SUP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $733 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Superior Industries International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Superior Industries International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SUP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SUP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Superior Industries International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Superior Industries International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SUP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SUP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Superior Industries International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Superior Industries International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SUP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SUP are equal to 31.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Superior Industries International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SUP is equal to 14.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $398 million for Superior Industries International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.905 million for Superior Industries International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Superior Industries International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Superior Industries misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-09-17 10:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ Superior Industries Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-06-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Superior Industries reports 2Q loss   [Aug-04-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Superior Industries Prices 250 million Debt Offering   [Jun-08-17 06:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Superior Industries Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-02-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Superior Industries misses Street 1Q forecasts   [07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Superior Industries Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-05-16 07:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SUP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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