Intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals - SUPN

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$35.75

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$35.75

 
Intrinsic value

$117.43

 
Up/down potential

+228%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SUPN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  46.26
  31.80
  29.12
  26.71
  24.54
  22.58
  20.83
  19.24
  17.82
  16.54
  15.38
  14.34
  13.41
  12.57
  11.81
  11.13
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.02
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
Revenue, $m
  215
  283
  366
  464
  577
  708
  855
  1,020
  1,201
  1,400
  1,615
  1,847
  2,095
  2,358
  2,637
  2,930
  3,238
  3,561
  3,898
  4,250
  4,616
  4,998
  5,394
  5,806
  6,234
  6,679
  7,142
  7,623
  8,123
  8,643
  9,184
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  133
  172
  218
  271
  333
  402
  479
  565
  658
  759
  868
  985
  1,108
  1,239
  1,377
  1,522
  1,674
  1,832
  1,998
  2,170
  2,349
  2,535
  2,729
  2,930
  3,139
  3,357
  3,583
  3,818
  4,062
  4,316
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  197
  237
  285
  339
  403
  474
  553
  641
  735
  838
  949
  1,068
  1,193
  1,327
  1,467
  1,614
  1,768
  1,929
  2,097
  2,272
  2,453
  2,642
  2,838
  3,042
  3,254
  3,475
  3,704
  3,942
  4,189
  4,446
Operating income, $m
  54
  87
  129
  179
  238
  305
  381
  467
  561
  665
  777
  898
  1,027
  1,164
  1,310
  1,463
  1,624
  1,793
  1,969
  2,153
  2,345
  2,545
  2,752
  2,968
  3,192
  3,425
  3,667
  3,919
  4,181
  4,454
  4,737
EBITDA, $m
  56
  89
  132
  183
  243
  311
  389
  476
  572
  677
  792
  915
  1,046
  1,186
  1,334
  1,490
  1,654
  1,826
  2,005
  2,193
  2,388
  2,591
  2,802
  3,021
  3,250
  3,487
  3,733
  3,989
  4,256
  4,533
  4,822
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  12
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  107
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  86
  127
  176
  233
  298
  372
  454
  546
  646
  754
  871
  995
  1,128
  1,269
  1,417
  1,572
  1,735
  1,905
  2,083
  2,268
  2,460
  2,660
  2,868
  3,085
  3,309
  3,543
  3,786
  4,039
  4,302
  4,575
Tax expense, $m
  -41
  23
  34
  47
  63
  80
  100
  123
  147
  174
  204
  235
  269
  305
  343
  382
  424
  468
  514
  562
  612
  664
  718
  774
  833
  894
  957
  1,022
  1,090
  1,161
  1,235
Net income, $m
  91
  63
  93
  128
  170
  217
  271
  332
  398
  471
  550
  636
  727
  824
  926
  1,034
  1,148
  1,266
  1,391
  1,520
  1,655
  1,796
  1,942
  2,094
  2,252
  2,416
  2,586
  2,764
  2,948
  3,140
  3,340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  310
  290
  375
  475
  591
  724
  875
  1,044
  1,230
  1,433
  1,653
  1,891
  2,144
  2,414
  2,699
  2,999
  3,315
  3,645
  3,990
  4,350
  4,725
  5,115
  5,521
  5,943
  6,381
  6,837
  7,310
  7,802
  8,314
  8,846
  9,400
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  220
  290
  375
  475
  591
  724
  875
  1,044
  1,230
  1,433
  1,653
  1,891
  2,144
  2,414
  2,699
  2,999
  3,315
  3,645
  3,990
  4,350
  4,725
  5,115
  5,521
  5,943
  6,381
  6,837
  7,310
  7,802
  8,314
  8,846
  9,400
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.977
  0.976
  0.976
  0.977
  0.976
  0.978
  0.977
  0.977
  0.976
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
Average production assets, $m
  13
  16
  21
  27
  33
  41
  50
  59
  70
  81
  94
  107
  122
  137
  153
  170
  188
  207
  226
  247
  268
  290
  313
  337
  362
  387
  414
  442
  471
  501
  533
Working capital, $m
  70
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -54
  -66
  -80
  -95
  -112
  -130
  -150
  -172
  -195
  -219
  -245
  -273
  -301
  -331
  -363
  -395
  -429
  -465
  -502
  -540
  -580
  -621
  -664
  -709
  -755
  -804
  -854
Total debt, $m
  4
  41
  87
  140
  203
  274
  355
  445
  545
  654
  772
  899
  1,035
  1,180
  1,333
  1,494
  1,663
  1,840
  2,025
  2,218
  2,419
  2,628
  2,845
  3,071
  3,306
  3,550
  3,804
  4,068
  4,342
  4,628
  4,924
Total liabilities, $m
  118
  155
  201
  254
  317
  388
  469
  559
  659
  768
  886
  1,013
  1,149
  1,294
  1,447
  1,608
  1,777
  1,954
  2,139
  2,332
  2,533
  2,742
  2,959
  3,185
  3,420
  3,664
  3,918
  4,182
  4,456
  4,742
  5,038
Total equity, $m
  192
  135
  174
  220
  274
  336
  406
  484
  571
  665
  767
  877
  995
  1,120
  1,252
  1,392
  1,538
  1,691
  1,851
  2,018
  2,192
  2,374
  2,562
  2,758
  2,961
  3,172
  3,392
  3,620
  3,858
  4,105
  4,362
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  310
  290
  375
  474
  591
  724
  875
  1,043
  1,230
  1,433
  1,653
  1,890
  2,144
  2,414
  2,699
  3,000
  3,315
  3,645
  3,990
  4,350
  4,725
  5,116
  5,521
  5,943
  6,381
  6,836
  7,310
  7,802
  8,314
  8,847
  9,400
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.021
  0.310
  0.500
  0.640
  0.740
  0.820
  0.870
  0.920
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  63
  93
  128
  170
  217
  271
  332
  398
  471
  550
  636
  727
  824
  926
  1,034
  1,148
  1,266
  1,391
  1,520
  1,655
  1,796
  1,942
  2,094
  2,252
  2,416
  2,586
  2,764
  2,948
  3,140
  3,340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  80
  85
Funds from operations, $m
  75
  66
  96
  133
  175
  224
  279
  341
  409
  484
  565
  653
  746
  845
  950
  1,061
  1,177
  1,299
  1,427
  1,559
  1,698
  1,842
  1,992
  2,147
  2,309
  2,477
  2,652
  2,834
  3,023
  3,220
  3,425
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  80
  104
  142
  186
  236
  293
  356
  426
  503
  585
  674
  769
  870
  976
  1,088
  1,206
  1,329
  1,458
  1,592
  1,732
  1,877
  2,028
  2,186
  2,349
  2,519
  2,695
  2,879
  3,070
  3,268
  3,475
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
Free cash flow, $m
  31
  74
  97
  133
  175
  223
  278
  339
  406
  480
  560
  646
  738
  835
  938
  1,047
  1,161
  1,281
  1,406
  1,536
  1,671
  1,813
  1,959
  2,112
  2,271
  2,436
  2,607
  2,785
  2,970
  3,163
  3,364
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  37
  45
  54
  62
  72
  81
  90
  100
  109
  118
  127
  136
  144
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  37
  45
  54
  62
  72
  81
  90
  100
  109
  118
  127
  136
  144
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  111
  142
  186
  237
  295
  359
  429
  506
  589
  678
  773
  873
  980
  1,091
  1,208
  1,330
  1,458
  1,591
  1,729
  1,872
  2,022
  2,177
  2,338
  2,506
  2,680
  2,861
  3,049
  3,245
  3,449
  3,661
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -104
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -54
  -62
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  169
  103
  140
  183
  233
  289
  351
  420
  495
  576
  663
  756
  855
  959
  1,069
  1,184
  1,305
  1,430
  1,562
  1,698
  1,841
  1,989
  2,142
  2,302
  2,468
  2,641
  2,821
  3,007
  3,202
  3,404
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  162
  94
  122
  151
  180
  210
  237
  262
  284
  302
  315
  323
  325
  322
  314
  301
  284
  263
  240
  216
  190
  165
  140
  117
  96
  77
  61
  47
  35
  26
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system diseases in the United States. Its marketed products for the treatment of epilepsy include Oxtellar XR, an extended-release oxcarbazepine; and Trokendi XR, an extended-release topiramate. The company’s product candidates comprise SPN-810, a molindone hydrochloride that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of impulsive aggression in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); and SPN-812, a viloxazine hydrochloride, which is in Phase IIb clinical trials for the treatment of ADHD. It is also developing SPN-809, a viloxazine hydrochloride as a once-daily product candidate for the treatment of depression. The company markets its products through wholesalers and pharmaceutical distributors. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.6
Price to Sales 8.3
Price to Book 9.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 26.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 46.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.1%
Total Debt to Equity 2.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 36.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 62.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Return On Equity 65%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.2%
EBITDA Margin 24.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 25.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 42.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Effective Tax Rate -82%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SUPN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SUPN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $215 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Supernus Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Supernus Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SUPN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SUPN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Supernus Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Supernus Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SUPN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $62 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SUPN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Supernus Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Supernus Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SUPN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SUPN are equal to 5.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Supernus Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SUPN is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $192 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.366 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Supernus Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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Stock chart of SUPN Financial statements of SUPN Annual reports of SUPN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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