Intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals - SUPN

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$32.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$32.15

 
Intrinsic value

$205.99

 
Up/down potential

+541%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SUPN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  46.26
  40.90
  37.31
  34.08
  31.17
  28.55
  26.20
  24.08
  22.17
  20.45
  18.91
  17.52
  16.27
  15.14
  14.13
  13.21
  12.39
  11.65
  10.99
  10.39
  9.85
  9.36
  8.93
  8.54
  8.18
  7.86
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
Revenue, $m
  215
  303
  416
  558
  732
  940
  1,187
  1,473
  1,799
  2,167
  2,577
  3,028
  3,521
  4,054
  4,626
  5,238
  5,887
  6,573
  7,295
  8,053
  8,846
  9,674
  10,538
  11,437
  12,373
  13,346
  14,357
  15,408
  16,500
  17,635
  18,815
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  142
  196
  262
  344
  442
  558
  692
  846
  1,019
  1,211
  1,423
  1,655
  1,905
  2,174
  2,462
  2,767
  3,089
  3,429
  3,785
  4,158
  4,547
  4,953
  5,376
  5,815
  6,273
  6,748
  7,242
  7,755
  8,289
  8,843
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  130
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  206
  261
  329
  412
  512
  630
  766
  922
  1,096
  1,290
  1,504
  1,738
  1,990
  2,262
  2,552
  2,859
  3,183
  3,526
  3,884
  4,260
  4,651
  5,060
  5,485
  5,927
  6,388
  6,866
  7,363
  7,879
  8,416
  8,973
Operating income, $m
  54
  97
  155
  229
  319
  428
  557
  707
  878
  1,071
  1,286
  1,524
  1,783
  2,063
  2,364
  2,686
  3,028
  3,389
  3,770
  4,169
  4,587
  5,023
  5,478
  5,952
  6,446
  6,959
  7,492
  8,046
  8,621
  9,220
  9,842
EBITDA, $m
  56
  100
  159
  234
  326
  437
  568
  720
  895
  1,091
  1,310
  1,552
  1,815
  2,100
  2,407
  2,734
  3,082
  3,450
  3,837
  4,243
  4,668
  5,112
  5,575
  6,058
  6,560
  7,081
  7,624
  8,188
  8,773
  9,382
  10,015
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  4
  7
  10
  14
  19
  24
  31
  38
  45
  54
  64
  74
  85
  97
  109
  122
  136
  151
  166
  182
  198
  216
  234
  252
  272
  292
  313
  335
Earnings before tax, $m
  50
  97
  153
  225
  313
  418
  543
  688
  854
  1,041
  1,249
  1,478
  1,728
  1,999
  2,291
  2,601
  2,931
  3,280
  3,647
  4,033
  4,436
  4,857
  5,297
  5,754
  6,230
  6,725
  7,239
  7,774
  8,330
  8,907
  9,507
Tax expense, $m
  -41
  26
  41
  61
  84
  113
  147
  186
  230
  281
  337
  399
  467
  540
  618
  702
  791
  886
  985
  1,089
  1,198
  1,311
  1,430
  1,554
  1,682
  1,816
  1,955
  2,099
  2,249
  2,405
  2,567
Net income, $m
  91
  71
  112
  164
  228
  305
  396
  502
  623
  760
  912
  1,079
  1,262
  1,460
  1,672
  1,899
  2,140
  2,395
  2,663
  2,944
  3,238
  3,546
  3,867
  4,200
  4,548
  4,909
  5,285
  5,675
  6,081
  6,502
  6,940

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  310
  310
  426
  571
  749
  963
  1,215
  1,507
  1,841
  2,218
  2,638
  3,100
  3,604
  4,149
  4,735
  5,361
  6,025
  6,727
  7,467
  8,242
  9,054
  9,902
  10,786
  11,707
  12,664
  13,660
  14,695
  15,771
  16,889
  18,051
  19,258
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  220
  310
  426
  571
  749
  963
  1,215
  1,507
  1,841
  2,218
  2,638
  3,100
  3,604
  4,149
  4,735
  5,361
  6,025
  6,727
  7,467
  8,242
  9,054
  9,902
  10,786
  11,707
  12,664
  13,660
  14,695
  15,771
  16,889
  18,051
  19,258
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.976
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
  0.977
Average production assets, $m
  13
  18
  24
  32
  42
  55
  69
  85
  104
  126
  149
  176
  204
  235
  268
  304
  341
  381
  423
  467
  513
  561
  611
  663
  718
  774
  833
  894
  957
  1,023
  1,091
Working capital, $m
  70
  -28
  -39
  -52
  -68
  -87
  -110
  -137
  -167
  -202
  -240
  -282
  -327
  -377
  -430
  -487
  -547
  -611
  -678
  -749
  -823
  -900
  -980
  -1,064
  -1,151
  -1,241
  -1,335
  -1,433
  -1,535
  -1,640
  -1,750
Total debt, $m
  4
  52
  114
  192
  287
  402
  537
  694
  873
  1,075
  1,300
  1,547
  1,818
  2,110
  2,424
  2,760
  3,116
  3,492
  3,888
  4,304
  4,739
  5,193
  5,667
  6,161
  6,674
  7,208
  7,763
  8,339
  8,938
  9,561
  10,208
Total liabilities, $m
  118
  166
  228
  306
  401
  516
  651
  808
  987
  1,189
  1,414
  1,661
  1,932
  2,224
  2,538
  2,874
  3,230
  3,606
  4,002
  4,418
  4,853
  5,307
  5,781
  6,275
  6,788
  7,322
  7,877
  8,453
  9,052
  9,675
  10,322
Total equity, $m
  192
  144
  198
  265
  347
  447
  564
  699
  854
  1,029
  1,224
  1,438
  1,672
  1,925
  2,197
  2,488
  2,796
  3,122
  3,465
  3,824
  4,201
  4,595
  5,005
  5,432
  5,876
  6,338
  6,819
  7,318
  7,836
  8,375
  8,936
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  310
  310
  426
  571
  748
  963
  1,215
  1,507
  1,841
  2,218
  2,638
  3,099
  3,604
  4,149
  4,735
  5,362
  6,026
  6,728
  7,467
  8,242
  9,054
  9,902
  10,786
  11,707
  12,664
  13,660
  14,696
  15,771
  16,888
  18,050
  19,258
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.021
  0.360
  0.580
  0.720
  0.830
  0.900
  0.950
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464
  0.464

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  91
  71
  112
  164
  228
  305
  396
  502
  623
  760
  912
  1,079
  1,262
  1,460
  1,672
  1,899
  2,140
  2,395
  2,663
  2,944
  3,238
  3,546
  3,867
  4,200
  4,548
  4,909
  5,285
  5,675
  6,081
  6,502
  6,940
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  43
  48
  54
  61
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
Funds from operations, $m
  75
  74
  116
  169
  235
  314
  407
  516
  640
  780
  935
  1,107
  1,294
  1,497
  1,715
  1,947
  2,194
  2,455
  2,730
  3,018
  3,320
  3,635
  3,964
  4,306
  4,662
  5,032
  5,417
  5,817
  6,232
  6,665
  7,114
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  89
  126
  182
  251
  333
  430
  542
  670
  814
  973
  1,149
  1,340
  1,546
  1,768
  2,004
  2,254
  2,519
  2,797
  3,089
  3,394
  3,712
  4,044
  4,389
  4,749
  5,123
  5,511
  5,915
  6,334
  6,770
  7,223
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -32
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -114
  -123
  -132
  -142
  -152
  -162
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -57
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -129
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -230
Free cash flow, $m
  31
  82
  117
  170
  236
  315
  407
  515
  638
  776
  930
  1,099
  1,284
  1,483
  1,697
  1,926
  2,169
  2,425
  2,695
  2,977
  3,273
  3,582
  3,905
  4,240
  4,589
  4,952
  5,329
  5,721
  6,129
  6,552
  6,993
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  48
  62
  78
  95
  115
  135
  157
  179
  202
  225
  248
  270
  292
  314
  335
  356
  376
  396
  416
  435
  454
  474
  493
  513
  534
  555
  577
  599
  623
  647
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  48
  62
  78
  95
  115
  135
  157
  179
  202
  225
  248
  270
  292
  314
  335
  356
  376
  396
  416
  435
  454
  474
  493
  513
  534
  555
  577
  599
  623
  647
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  130
  179
  248
  331
  429
  542
  672
  817
  978
  1,154
  1,347
  1,554
  1,776
  2,012
  2,261
  2,525
  2,801
  3,091
  3,393
  3,709
  4,037
  4,379
  4,734
  5,103
  5,486
  5,884
  6,298
  6,728
  7,175
  7,640
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -104
  -42
  -54
  -67
  -83
  -99
  -117
  -136
  -155
  -175
  -195
  -214
  -234
  -253
  -272
  -290
  -308
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -377
  -393
  -410
  -427
  -444
  -462
  -480
  -499
  -519
  -539
  -560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  90
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  178
  125
  181
  249
  330
  425
  536
  662
  803
  960
  1,132
  1,320
  1,522
  1,740
  1,971
  2,216
  2,475
  2,748
  3,033
  3,332
  3,644
  3,968
  4,307
  4,658
  5,024
  5,404
  5,799
  6,209
  6,636
  7,080
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  171
  115
  157
  205
  256
  309
  362
  414
  461
  503
  538
  563
  579
  584
  579
  563
  539
  506
  467
  423
  377
  329
  282
  237
  195
  158
  124
  96
  72
  53
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of products for the treatment of central nervous system diseases in the United States. Its marketed products for the treatment of epilepsy include Oxtellar XR, an extended-release oxcarbazepine; and Trokendi XR, an extended-release topiramate. The company’s product candidates comprise SPN-810, a molindone hydrochloride that is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of impulsive aggression in patients with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD); and SPN-812, a viloxazine hydrochloride, which is in Phase IIb clinical trials for the treatment of ADHD. It is also developing SPN-809, a viloxazine hydrochloride as a once-daily product candidate for the treatment of depression. The company markets its products through wholesalers and pharmaceutical distributors. Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is based in Rockville, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.7
Price to Sales 7.5
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 46.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.1%
Total Debt to Equity 2.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 36.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 62.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Return On Equity 65%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.2%
EBITDA Margin 24.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 25.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 42.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Effective Tax Rate -82%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SUPN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SUPN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $215 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Supernus Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Supernus Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SUPN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 40.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SUPN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Supernus Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Supernus Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SUPN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $62 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SUPN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Supernus Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Supernus Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SUPN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SUPN are equal to 5.8%.

Life of production assets of 6.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Supernus Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SUPN is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $192 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 50.16 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Supernus Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.


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Stock chart of SUPN Financial statements of SUPN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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