Intrinsic value of Sinovac Biotech - SVA

Previous Close

$7.04

  Intrinsic Value

$0.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-92%

  Value-price divergence*

-75%

Previous close

$7.04

 
Intrinsic value

$0.54

 
Up/down potential

-92%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-75%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2015), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2015(a)
   2016
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.35
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  67
  107
  166
  248
  359
  507
  697
  936
  1,229
  1,581
  1,997
  2,480
  3,032
  3,654
  4,348
  5,112
  5,946
  6,850
  7,821
  8,857
  9,958
  11,122
  12,347
  13,633
  14,980
  16,386
  17,852
  19,379
  20,968
  22,620
  24,337
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  80
  124
  185
  268
  378
  520
  698
  917
  1,179
  1,490
  1,850
  2,262
  2,726
  3,243
  3,814
  4,436
  5,110
  5,834
  6,607
  7,429
  8,297
  9,211
  10,171
  11,175
  12,224
  13,318
  14,457
  15,642
  16,874
  18,155
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
Total operating expenses, $m
  64
  94
  139
  200
  283
  394
  536
  715
  934
  1,196
  1,508
  1,868
  2,281
  2,745
  3,263
  3,834
  4,457
  5,131
  5,856
  6,629
  7,452
  8,321
  9,235
  10,196
  11,200
  12,250
  13,345
  14,484
  15,670
  16,903
  18,184
Operating income, $m
  4
  13
  27
  48
  76
  113
  161
  221
  295
  384
  489
  611
  751
  909
  1,084
  1,278
  1,490
  1,719
  1,965
  2,227
  2,506
  2,801
  3,112
  3,438
  3,780
  4,136
  4,508
  4,895
  5,298
  5,717
  6,152
EBITDA, $m
  10
  22
  42
  70
  108
  158
  223
  305
  405
  526
  668
  834
  1,023
  1,237
  1,475
  1,737
  2,023
  2,333
  2,666
  3,022
  3,400
  3,799
  4,220
  4,661
  5,124
  5,606
  6,110
  6,634
  7,179
  7,746
  8,336
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  2
  4
  8
  13
  19
  27
  38
  51
  66
  84
  105
  129
  156
  186
  219
  256
  295
  337
  382
  430
  481
  534
  590
  648
  710
  773
  840
  909
  981
Earnings before tax, $m
  3
  13
  26
  43
  68
  100
  142
  194
  257
  334
  423
  527
  646
  780
  928
  1,092
  1,270
  1,463
  1,670
  1,890
  2,124
  2,371
  2,631
  2,904
  3,190
  3,488
  3,798
  4,122
  4,458
  4,808
  5,172
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  7
  12
  18
  27
  38
  52
  69
  90
  114
  142
  174
  211
  251
  295
  343
  395
  451
  510
  574
  640
  710
  784
  861
  942
  1,026
  1,113
  1,204
  1,298
  1,396
Net income, $m
  -1
  9
  19
  32
  50
  73
  103
  141
  188
  243
  309
  385
  472
  569
  678
  797
  927
  1,068
  1,219
  1,380
  1,551
  1,731
  1,921
  2,120
  2,328
  2,546
  2,773
  3,009
  3,254
  3,510
  3,775

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  203
  222
  344
  514
  746
  1,052
  1,446
  1,941
  2,549
  3,280
  4,143
  5,144
  6,289
  7,581
  9,020
  10,606
  12,337
  14,211
  16,225
  18,376
  20,660
  23,074
  25,617
  28,285
  31,078
  33,995
  37,037
  40,206
  43,502
  46,929
  50,491
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  139
  222
  344
  514
  746
  1,052
  1,446
  1,941
  2,549
  3,280
  4,143
  5,144
  6,289
  7,581
  9,020
  10,606
  12,337
  14,211
  16,225
  18,376
  20,660
  23,074
  25,617
  28,285
  31,078
  33,995
  37,037
  40,206
  43,502
  46,929
  50,491
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.482
  0.482
  0.483
  0.482
  0.481
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
  0.482
Average production assets, $m
  66
  105
  162
  242
  351
  496
  682
  915
  1,202
  1,546
  1,953
  2,425
  2,965
  3,574
  4,252
  4,999
  5,816
  6,699
  7,648
  8,662
  9,739
  10,877
  12,076
  13,333
  14,650
  16,025
  17,459
  18,953
  20,507
  22,122
  23,801
Working capital, $m
  71
  50
  77
  115
  166
  235
  323
  433
  569
  732
  925
  1,148
  1,404
  1,692
  2,013
  2,367
  2,753
  3,171
  3,621
  4,101
  4,611
  5,149
  5,717
  6,312
  6,936
  7,587
  8,266
  8,973
  9,708
  10,473
  11,268
Total debt, $m
  25
  35
  83
  152
  245
  369
  528
  727
  972
  1,267
  1,615
  2,018
  2,480
  3,000
  3,580
  4,219
  4,917
  5,672
  6,484
  7,350
  8,271
  9,244
  10,269
  11,344
  12,469
  13,645
  14,871
  16,148
  17,476
  18,857
  20,293
Total liabilities, $m
  80
  90
  138
  207
  300
  424
  583
  782
  1,027
  1,322
  1,670
  2,073
  2,535
  3,055
  3,635
  4,274
  4,972
  5,727
  6,539
  7,405
  8,326
  9,299
  10,324
  11,399
  12,524
  13,700
  14,926
  16,203
  17,531
  18,912
  20,348
Total equity, $m
  123
  133
  205
  307
  445
  628
  863
  1,159
  1,522
  1,958
  2,473
  3,071
  3,755
  4,526
  5,385
  6,332
  7,365
  8,484
  9,686
  10,970
  12,334
  13,775
  15,293
  16,886
  18,554
  20,295
  22,111
  24,003
  25,970
  28,017
  30,143
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  203
  223
  343
  514
  745
  1,052
  1,446
  1,941
  2,549
  3,280
  4,143
  5,144
  6,290
  7,581
  9,020
  10,606
  12,337
  14,211
  16,225
  18,375
  20,660
  23,074
  25,617
  28,285
  31,078
  33,995
  37,037
  40,206
  43,501
  46,929
  50,491
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.203
  0.260
  0.410
  0.500
  0.550
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.424
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597
  0.597

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  9
  19
  32
  50
  73
  103
  141
  188
  243
  309
  385
  472
  569
  678
  797
  927
  1,068
  1,219
  1,380
  1,551
  1,731
  1,921
  2,120
  2,328
  2,546
  2,773
  3,009
  3,254
  3,510
  3,775
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  10
  15
  22
  32
  45
  63
  84
  110
  142
  179
  222
  272
  328
  390
  459
  534
  615
  702
  795
  893
  998
  1,108
  1,223
  1,344
  1,470
  1,602
  1,739
  1,881
  2,030
  2,184
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  19
  34
  54
  82
  119
  166
  225
  298
  385
  488
  608
  744
  897
  1,068
  1,256
  1,461
  1,682
  1,921
  2,175
  2,444
  2,729
  3,029
  3,343
  3,672
  4,016
  4,375
  4,748
  5,136
  5,539
  5,959
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  19
  27
  38
  52
  68
  88
  110
  136
  163
  193
  224
  256
  288
  321
  354
  386
  418
  449
  480
  510
  539
  567
  595
  623
  651
  679
  707
  736
  765
  795
Cash from operations, $m
  3
  0
  6
  16
  30
  50
  78
  115
  162
  222
  296
  384
  488
  609
  747
  902
  1,074
  1,264
  1,471
  1,695
  1,934
  2,190
  2,461
  2,748
  3,049
  3,365
  3,696
  4,041
  4,400
  4,775
  5,164
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -22
  -32
  -45
  -63
  -84
  -110
  -142
  -179
  -222
  -272
  -328
  -390
  -459
  -534
  -615
  -702
  -795
  -893
  -998
  -1,108
  -1,223
  -1,344
  -1,470
  -1,602
  -1,739
  -1,881
  -2,030
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -39
  -57
  -80
  -109
  -144
  -186
  -233
  -286
  -345
  -407
  -472
  -540
  -609
  -678
  -748
  -816
  -883
  -949
  -1,014
  -1,077
  -1,138
  -1,198
  -1,258
  -1,317
  -1,375
  -1,434
  -1,493
  -1,554
  -1,616
  -1,679
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -45
  -67
  -95
  -131
  -176
  -231
  -296
  -370
  -455
  -549
  -651
  -762
  -881
  -1,006
  -1,138
  -1,275
  -1,417
  -1,564
  -1,716
  -1,872
  -2,031
  -2,196
  -2,366
  -2,540
  -2,719
  -2,904
  -3,095
  -3,293
  -3,497
  -3,709
Free cash flow, $m
  -2
  -45
  -60
  -79
  -101
  -126
  -153
  -181
  -208
  -233
  -253
  -267
  -274
  -272
  -259
  -236
  -200
  -153
  -93
  -21
  63
  159
  265
  382
  509
  646
  791
  945
  1,108
  1,278
  1,455
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -25
  34
  49
  69
  93
  123
  159
  199
  245
  295
  348
  404
  461
  520
  580
  639
  698
  755
  812
  867
  920
  973
  1,025
  1,075
  1,126
  1,176
  1,226
  1,277
  1,328
  1,381
  1,436
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  40
  54
  70
  89
  110
  132
  154
  175
  193
  206
  213
  212
  202
  181
  150
  106
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -24
  74
  103
  139
  182
  233
  291
  353
  420
  488
  554
  617
  673
  722
  761
  789
  804
  806
  812
  867
  920
  973
  1,025
  1,075
  1,126
  1,176
  1,226
  1,277
  1,328
  1,381
  1,436
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -27
  29
  42
  59
  81
  107
  137
  173
  212
  255
  301
  349
  399
  450
  502
  553
  604
  653
  719
  846
  983
  1,132
  1,290
  1,457
  1,635
  1,822
  2,017
  2,222
  2,436
  2,659
  2,891
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -50
  -72
  -102
  -138
  -183
  -235
  -296
  -363
  -436
  -515
  -598
  -684
  -771
  -859
  -947
  -1,034
  -1,119
  -1,202
  -1,284
  -1,364
  -1,441
  -1,518
  -1,593
  -1,667
  -1,742
  -1,816
  -1,891
  -1,968
  -2,046
  -2,127
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  19
  -30
  -42
  -58
  -76
  -98
  -123
  -151
  -181
  -214
  -249
  -284
  -321
  -357
  -394
  -430
  -465
  -484
  -438
  -380
  -310
  -228
  -135
  -33
  80
  201
  331
  468
  613
  764
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  -28
  -37
  -47
  -59
  -71
  -83
  -94
  -104
  -112
  -118
  -121
  -122
  -120
  -116
  -109
  -101
  -89
  -67
  -48
  -32
  -19
  -9
  -2
  3
  6
  7
  7
  7
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.0
  77.4
  70.1
  64.3
  59.8
  56.2
  53.3
  50.9
  49.0
  47.5
  46.2
  45.3
  44.5
  44.0
  43.6
  43.4
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3
  43.3

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Sinovac) is a holding company. The Company is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases, including hepatitis A, hepatitis B, seasonal influenza, Haemagglutinase5 Neuraminidase1 (H5N1) and Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic influenza and mumps. The Company's pipeline consists of vaccine candidates in the clinical and pre-clinical development Phases in China. The Company is engaged in the sales, marketing, manufacturing and development of vaccines for infectious disease. The Company develops various products, including Healive, Bilive, Anflu, Panflu Whole Viron Pandemic Influenza Vaccine, Split Viron Pandemic Influenza Vaccine, Panflu.1, RabEnd, Mumps Vaccine, Enterovirus 71 (EV71) Vaccine, Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine, Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine, Rubella Vaccine, Varicella Vaccine and Sabin Inactivated Polio Vaccine.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sinovac Biotech (SVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -400.6
Price to Sales 6
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 133.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -200.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -20.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0.8%
Total Debt to Equity 20.3%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Return On Total Capital -0.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Equity -0.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
Operating Margin 4.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin -1.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $67 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sinovac Biotech. The default revenue input number comes from 2015 income statement of Sinovac Biotech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sinovac Biotech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sinovac Biotech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $14 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.2% for Sinovac Biotech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sinovac Biotech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SVA are equal to 97.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sinovac Biotech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SVA is equal to 46.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $123 million for Sinovac Biotech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 56.907 million for Sinovac Biotech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sinovac Biotech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

Financial statements of SVA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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