Intrinsic value of Stillwater Mining - SWC

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$17.17

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in ), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  0
  889
  1,093
  1,325
  1,584
  1,871
  2,186
  2,528
  2,896
  3,290
  3,709
  4,154
  4,622
  5,114
  5,630
  6,169
  6,731
  7,317
  7,927
  8,562
  9,221
  9,906
  10,618
  11,358
  12,128
  12,927
  13,759
  14,625
  15,527
  16,465
  17,444
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  919
  1,130
  1,370
  1,638
  1,935
  2,260
  2,614
  2,994
  3,402
  3,836
  4,295
  4,779
  5,288
  5,821
  6,379
  6,960
  7,566
  8,197
  8,853
  9,534
  10,243
  10,979
  11,745
  12,540
  13,367
  14,227
  15,122
  16,054
  17,025
  18,037
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  919
  1,130
  1,370
  1,638
  1,935
  2,260
  2,614
  2,994
  3,402
  3,836
  4,295
  4,779
  5,288
  5,821
  6,379
  6,960
  7,566
  8,197
  8,853
  9,534
  10,243
  10,979
  11,745
  12,540
  13,367
  14,227
  15,122
  16,054
  17,025
  18,037
Operating income, $m
  0
  -30
  -37
  -45
  -54
  -64
  -74
  -86
  -98
  -112
  -126
  -141
  -157
  -174
  -191
  -210
  -229
  -249
  -270
  -291
  -314
  -337
  -361
  -386
  -412
  -440
  -468
  -497
  -528
  -560
  -593
EBITDA, $m
  0
  62
  77
  93
  111
  131
  153
  177
  203
  230
  260
  291
  324
  358
  394
  432
  471
  513
  555
  600
  646
  694
  744
  796
  849
  905
  964
  1,024
  1,088
  1,153
  1,222
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  10
  13
  17
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  180
  193
  208
  222
  238
  254
  270
  288
  306
  324
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -125
  -144
  -165
  -187
  -211
  -236
  -262
  -289
  -318
  -348
  -379
  -411
  -445
  -480
  -516
  -554
  -594
  -635
  -677
  -722
  -768
  -816
  -865
  -918
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -125
  -144
  -165
  -187
  -211
  -236
  -262
  -289
  -318
  -348
  -379
  -411
  -445
  -480
  -516
  -554
  -594
  -635
  -677
  -722
  -768
  -816
  -865
  -918

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  1,096
  1,348
  1,634
  1,954
  2,308
  2,695
  3,117
  3,571
  4,057
  4,574
  5,121
  5,699
  6,306
  6,942
  7,606
  8,300
  9,023
  9,775
  10,557
  11,370
  12,215
  13,093
  14,005
  14,954
  15,940
  16,966
  18,034
  19,145
  20,303
  21,509
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  1,096
  1,348
  1,634
  1,954
  2,308
  2,695
  3,117
  3,571
  4,057
  4,574
  5,121
  5,699
  6,306
  6,942
  7,606
  8,300
  9,023
  9,775
  10,557
  11,370
  12,215
  13,093
  14,005
  14,954
  15,940
  16,966
  18,034
  19,145
  20,303
  21,509
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
  0.811
Average production assets, $m
  0
  869
  1,069
  1,296
  1,549
  1,830
  2,138
  2,472
  2,832
  3,218
  3,628
  4,062
  4,520
  5,002
  5,506
  6,033
  6,583
  7,156
  7,753
  8,373
  9,018
  9,688
  10,385
  11,108
  11,861
  12,643
  13,457
  14,303
  15,185
  16,103
  17,060
Working capital, $m
  0
  96
  118
  143
  171
  202
  236
  273
  313
  355
  401
  449
  499
  552
  608
  666
  727
  790
  856
  925
  996
  1,070
  1,147
  1,227
  1,310
  1,396
  1,486
  1,580
  1,677
  1,778
  1,884
Total debt, $m
  0
  376
  493
  625
  773
  937
  1,117
  1,312
  1,522
  1,747
  1,987
  2,240
  2,508
  2,789
  3,083
  3,391
  3,712
  4,046
  4,395
  4,757
  5,133
  5,524
  5,931
  6,353
  6,793
  7,249
  7,724
  8,219
  8,733
  9,269
  9,828
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  507
  624
  756
  904
  1,068
  1,248
  1,443
  1,653
  1,878
  2,118
  2,371
  2,639
  2,920
  3,214
  3,522
  3,843
  4,177
  4,526
  4,888
  5,264
  5,655
  6,062
  6,484
  6,924
  7,380
  7,855
  8,350
  8,864
  9,400
  9,959
Total equity, $m
  0
  588
  724
  877
  1,049
  1,239
  1,447
  1,674
  1,917
  2,178
  2,456
  2,750
  3,060
  3,386
  3,728
  4,085
  4,457
  4,845
  5,249
  5,669
  6,106
  6,559
  7,031
  7,521
  8,030
  8,560
  9,111
  9,684
  10,281
  10,903
  11,550
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  1,095
  1,348
  1,633
  1,953
  2,307
  2,695
  3,117
  3,570
  4,056
  4,574
  5,121
  5,699
  6,306
  6,942
  7,607
  8,300
  9,022
  9,775
  10,557
  11,370
  12,214
  13,093
  14,005
  14,954
  15,940
  16,966
  18,034
  19,145
  20,303
  21,509
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.640
  0.680
  0.710
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537
  0.537

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -40
  -50
  -62
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -125
  -144
  -165
  -187
  -211
  -236
  -262
  -289
  -318
  -348
  -379
  -411
  -445
  -480
  -516
  -554
  -594
  -635
  -677
  -722
  -768
  -816
  -865
  -918
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  92
  114
  138
  165
  195
  227
  263
  301
  342
  386
  432
  481
  532
  586
  642
  700
  761
  825
  891
  959
  1,031
  1,105
  1,182
  1,262
  1,345
  1,432
  1,522
  1,615
  1,713
  1,815
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  53
  63
  76
  89
  104
  120
  138
  157
  177
  199
  221
  245
  270
  297
  324
  353
  383
  414
  446
  479
  514
  550
  588
  627
  668
  710
  754
  800
  848
  897
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  46
  41
  51
  61
  73
  86
  101
  117
  135
  153
  173
  195
  217
  241
  266
  292
  319
  348
  377
  408
  440
  473
  508
  544
  581
  620
  661
  703
  746
  792
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -74
  -92
  -114
  -138
  -165
  -195
  -227
  -263
  -301
  -342
  -386
  -432
  -481
  -532
  -586
  -642
  -700
  -761
  -825
  -891
  -959
  -1,031
  -1,105
  -1,182
  -1,262
  -1,345
  -1,432
  -1,522
  -1,615
  -1,713
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -174
  -200
  -227
  -254
  -281
  -308
  -334
  -360
  -385
  -410
  -434
  -458
  -481
  -504
  -527
  -550
  -573
  -597
  -620
  -645
  -670
  -696
  -724
  -752
  -782
  -814
  -847
  -882
  -918
  -957
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -248
  -292
  -341
  -392
  -446
  -503
  -561
  -623
  -686
  -752
  -820
  -890
  -962
  -1,036
  -1,113
  -1,192
  -1,273
  -1,358
  -1,445
  -1,536
  -1,629
  -1,727
  -1,829
  -1,934
  -2,044
  -2,159
  -2,279
  -2,404
  -2,533
  -2,670
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -202
  -251
  -290
  -330
  -373
  -416
  -461
  -506
  -552
  -599
  -647
  -695
  -745
  -795
  -847
  -900
  -954
  -1,010
  -1,068
  -1,127
  -1,189
  -1,254
  -1,320
  -1,390
  -1,463
  -1,539
  -1,618
  -1,701
  -1,787
  -1,878
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  101
  117
  132
  148
  164
  180
  195
  210
  225
  239
  254
  267
  281
  294
  308
  321
  335
  348
  362
  376
  391
  407
  422
  439
  457
  475
  494
  515
  536
  559
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  270
  311
  354
  399
  445
  492
  540
  588
  637
  687
  738
  790
  842
  896
  951
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,188
  1,252
  1,319
  1,388
  1,460
  1,536
  1,614
  1,697
  1,783
  1,873
  1,968
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  101
  387
  443
  502
  563
  625
  687
  750
  813
  876
  941
  1,005
  1,071
  1,136
  1,204
  1,272
  1,343
  1,414
  1,488
  1,564
  1,643
  1,726
  1,810
  1,899
  1,993
  2,089
  2,191
  2,298
  2,409
  2,527
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  -100
  -134
  -158
  -182
  -209
  -236
  -265
  -296
  -327
  -360
  -393
  -428
  -464
  -501
  -539
  -579
  -620
  -662
  -706
  -751
  -798
  -847
  -898
  -951
  -1,006
  -1,064
  -1,123
  -1,186
  -1,251
  -1,320
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -117
  -135
  -153
  -172
  -190
  -208
  -226
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -341
  -357
  -372
  -388
  -404
  -420
  -437
  -454
  -472
  -490
  -509
  -530
  -551
  -573
  -597
  -622
  -648
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  232
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  223
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  83.1
  69.8
  59.2
  50.7
  43.7
  38.0
  33.2
  29.3
  25.9
  23.0
  20.6
  18.5
  16.6
  15.0
  13.6
  12.4
  11.3
  10.3
  9.4
  8.6
  7.9
  7.3
  6.7
  6.2
  5.7
  5.3
  4.9
  4.5
  4.2

Stillwater Mining Company engages in the development, extraction, processing, smelting, and refining of platinum group metals (PGMs). It operates through Mine Production, PGM Recycling, Canadian Properties, and South American Properties segments. The company explores for palladium, platinum, and associated metals, as well as rhodium, gold, silver, copper, and nickel ores. It conducts its mining operations at the Stillwater mine located near Nye, Montana; and at the East Boulder mine located in Sweet Grass County, Montana. The company also owns and operates a smelter and base metal refinery located in Columbus, Montana, as well as recycles spent catalyst and other industrial source materials. In addition, it develops and explores the Marathon PGM-copper property situated in Northern Ontario, Canada; and the Altar porphyry copper-gold property located in the San Juan Province of Argentina, as well as owns the Geordie Lake property situated in Ontario, Canada. Stillwater Mining Company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Littleton, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Stillwater Mining (SWC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SWC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $711 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Stillwater Mining. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of Stillwater Mining. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SWC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Stillwater Mining, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Stillwater Mining.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 103.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Stillwater Mining.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Stillwater Mining. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWC are equal to 97.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Stillwater Mining operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWC is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $921 million for Stillwater Mining - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 121.001 million for Stillwater Mining is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Stillwater Mining at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.


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Stock chart of SWC Financial statements of SWC
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