Intrinsic value of Swift Transportation - SWFT

Previous Close

$29.49

  Intrinsic Value

$15.70

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-47%

  Value-price divergence*

-52%

Previous close

$29.49

 
Intrinsic value

$15.70

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-52%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWFT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,032
  4,113
  4,207
  4,315
  4,437
  4,571
  4,719
  4,880
  5,054
  5,241
  5,442
  5,657
  5,887
  6,131
  6,391
  6,667
  6,959
  7,268
  7,595
  7,941
  8,306
  8,691
  9,097
  9,525
  9,976
  10,450
  10,950
  11,477
  12,031
  12,613
  13,226
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,731
  1,770
  1,815
  1,865
  1,921
  1,982
  2,049
  2,121
  2,199
  2,282
  2,346
  2,441
  2,543
  2,651
  2,765
  2,886
  3,014
  3,150
  3,293
  3,445
  3,604
  3,773
  3,950
  4,137
  4,334
  4,541
  4,760
  4,989
  5,231
  5,485
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  2,200
  2,255
  2,311
  2,369
  2,428
  2,489
  2,551
  2,615
  2,680
  2,747
  2,816
  2,886
  2,958
  3,032
  3,108
  3,186
  3,265
  3,347
  3,431
  3,516
  3,604
  3,694
  3,787
  3,882
  3,979
  4,078
  4,180
  4,284
  4,392
  4,501
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,793
  3,931
  4,025
  4,126
  4,234
  4,349
  4,471
  4,600
  4,736
  4,879
  5,029
  5,162
  5,327
  5,501
  5,683
  5,873
  6,072
  6,279
  6,497
  6,724
  6,961
  7,208
  7,467
  7,737
  8,019
  8,313
  8,619
  8,940
  9,273
  9,623
  9,986
Operating income, $m
  239
  182
  182
  189
  203
  222
  248
  280
  318
  362
  413
  495
  559
  630
  708
  794
  887
  989
  1,098
  1,217
  1,345
  1,482
  1,630
  1,788
  1,957
  2,138
  2,331
  2,537
  2,757
  2,991
  3,240
EBITDA, $m
  523
  462
  469
  482
  503
  531
  566
  607
  656
  712
  775
  846
  924
  1,010
  1,105
  1,207
  1,319
  1,439
  1,569
  1,709
  1,860
  2,021
  2,194
  2,378
  2,575
  2,786
  3,010
  3,249
  3,503
  3,773
  4,060
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  166
  176
Earnings before tax, $m
  215
  155
  154
  159
  170
  188
  211
  240
  276
  317
  364
  443
  504
  571
  645
  726
  814
  910
  1,015
  1,128
  1,250
  1,381
  1,522
  1,673
  1,834
  2,008
  2,193
  2,390
  2,601
  2,825
  3,064
Tax expense, $m
  66
  42
  41
  43
  46
  51
  57
  65
  74
  86
  98
  120
  136
  154
  174
  196
  220
  246
  274
  305
  337
  373
  411
  452
  495
  542
  592
  645
  702
  763
  827
Net income, $m
  149
  113
  112
  116
  124
  137
  154
  175
  201
  231
  266
  324
  368
  417
  471
  530
  594
  665
  741
  823
  912
  1,008
  1,111
  1,221
  1,339
  1,466
  1,601
  1,745
  1,898
  2,062
  2,236

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,746
  2,709
  2,772
  2,843
  2,923
  3,011
  3,109
  3,214
  3,329
  3,453
  3,585
  3,727
  3,878
  4,039
  4,210
  4,392
  4,584
  4,788
  5,003
  5,231
  5,471
  5,725
  5,993
  6,274
  6,572
  6,884
  7,214
  7,560
  7,925
  8,309
  8,713
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,657
  2,709
  2,772
  2,843
  2,923
  3,011
  3,109
  3,214
  3,329
  3,453
  3,585
  3,727
  3,878
  4,039
  4,210
  4,392
  4,584
  4,788
  5,003
  5,231
  5,471
  5,725
  5,993
  6,274
  6,572
  6,884
  7,214
  7,560
  7,925
  8,309
  8,713
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
  1.518
Average production assets, $m
  1,874
  1,912
  1,956
  2,007
  2,063
  2,126
  2,194
  2,269
  2,350
  2,437
  2,531
  2,631
  2,737
  2,851
  2,972
  3,100
  3,236
  3,380
  3,532
  3,692
  3,862
  4,041
  4,230
  4,429
  4,639
  4,859
  5,092
  5,337
  5,594
  5,865
  6,150
Working capital, $m
  246
  243
  248
  255
  262
  270
  278
  288
  298
  309
  321
  334
  347
  362
  377
  393
  411
  429
  448
  469
  490
  513
  537
  562
  589
  617
  646
  677
  710
  744
  780
Total debt, $m
  866
  824
  871
  924
  984
  1,051
  1,123
  1,203
  1,289
  1,381
  1,481
  1,587
  1,701
  1,821
  1,950
  2,086
  2,230
  2,383
  2,545
  2,715
  2,896
  3,086
  3,286
  3,498
  3,721
  3,955
  4,202
  4,462
  4,736
  5,024
  5,327
Total liabilities, $m
  2,074
  2,032
  2,079
  2,132
  2,192
  2,259
  2,331
  2,411
  2,497
  2,589
  2,689
  2,795
  2,909
  3,029
  3,158
  3,294
  3,438
  3,591
  3,753
  3,923
  4,104
  4,294
  4,494
  4,706
  4,929
  5,163
  5,410
  5,670
  5,944
  6,232
  6,535
Total equity, $m
  672
  677
  693
  711
  731
  753
  777
  804
  832
  863
  896
  932
  970
  1,010
  1,053
  1,098
  1,146
  1,197
  1,251
  1,308
  1,368
  1,431
  1,498
  1,569
  1,643
  1,721
  1,803
  1,890
  1,981
  2,077
  2,178
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,746
  2,709
  2,772
  2,843
  2,923
  3,012
  3,108
  3,215
  3,329
  3,452
  3,585
  3,727
  3,879
  4,039
  4,211
  4,392
  4,584
  4,788
  5,004
  5,231
  5,472
  5,725
  5,992
  6,275
  6,572
  6,884
  7,213
  7,560
  7,925
  8,309
  8,713
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.289
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.350
  1.400
  1.450
  1.500
  1.550
  1.600
  1.650
  1.700
  1.750
  1.800
  1.850
  1.900
  1.950
  1.990
  2.030
  2.080
  2.120
  2.160
  2.190
  2.230
  2.260
  2.300
  2.330
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.219
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  149
  113
  112
  116
  124
  137
  154
  175
  201
  231
  266
  324
  368
  417
  471
  530
  594
  665
  741
  823
  912
  1,008
  1,111
  1,221
  1,339
  1,466
  1,601
  1,745
  1,898
  2,062
  2,236
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  284
  280
  286
  293
  300
  309
  318
  328
  339
  350
  363
  351
  365
  380
  396
  413
  431
  451
  471
  492
  515
  539
  564
  591
  618
  648
  679
  712
  746
  782
  820
Funds from operations, $m
  547
  393
  398
  409
  425
  446
  472
  503
  540
  582
  629
  674
  733
  797
  867
  943
  1,026
  1,115
  1,212
  1,316
  1,427
  1,547
  1,675
  1,812
  1,958
  2,113
  2,280
  2,456
  2,644
  2,844
  3,057
Change in working capital, $m
  81
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  466
  388
  393
  402
  418
  438
  463
  494
  530
  571
  617
  662
  719
  782
  851
  927
  1,009
  1,097
  1,192
  1,295
  1,406
  1,524
  1,651
  1,786
  1,931
  2,085
  2,250
  2,425
  2,612
  2,810
  3,020
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -250
  -255
  -261
  -268
  -275
  -283
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -351
  -365
  -380
  -396
  -413
  -431
  -451
  -471
  -492
  -515
  -539
  -564
  -591
  -618
  -648
  -679
  -712
  -746
  -782
New CAPEX, $m
  -239
  -38
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -63
  -69
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -285
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -123
  -288
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -352
  -368
  -384
  -400
  -419
  -437
  -458
  -479
  -501
  -524
  -549
  -575
  -603
  -632
  -662
  -694
  -728
  -763
  -801
  -839
  -881
  -924
  -970
  -1,017
  -1,067
Free cash flow, $m
  343
  100
  94
  91
  94
  100
  111
  126
  146
  170
  198
  224
  262
  304
  351
  402
  459
  522
  590
  664
  744
  830
  923
  1,023
  1,131
  1,246
  1,370
  1,502
  1,643
  1,793
  1,953
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -262
  39
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -103
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -362
  39
  47
  53
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
  136
  144
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  247
  260
  274
  288
  303
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -18
  139
  140
  145
  154
  167
  184
  206
  232
  263
  298
  331
  375
  424
  479
  539
  604
  675
  751
  834
  924
  1,020
  1,124
  1,235
  1,354
  1,481
  1,617
  1,762
  1,916
  2,081
  2,256
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -13
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  134
  125
  127
  134
  144
  160
  179
  203
  232
  265
  295
  337
  384
  436
  493
  556
  624
  697
  777
  864
  957
  1,057
  1,164
  1,279
  1,403
  1,534
  1,675
  1,825
  1,985
  2,155
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  126
  111
  105
  103
  102
  103
  105
  107
  109
  110
  108
  106
  104
  100
  94
  87
  80
  71
  62
  54
  45
  37
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Swift Transportation Company is a multi-faceted transportation services company. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated fleets of truckload equipment in North America from over 40 terminals near key freight centers and traffic lanes. The Company' segments include Truckload, Dedicated, Swift Refrigerated and Intermodal. The Company's other segments include its logistics and freight brokerage services, as well as support services that its subsidiaries provide to customers and owner-operators, including repair and maintenance shop services, equipment leasing, and insurance. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's fleet consisted of 13,937 company tractors and 4,429 owner-operator tractors, as well as 64,066 trailers, and 9,131 intermodal containers. Its suite of service offerings include line-haul services, dedicated customer contracts, temperature-controlled units, intermodal freight solutions, flatbed hauling, freight brokerage and logistics.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Swift Transportation (SWFT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.3
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 5.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -30.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 116.8%
Total Debt to Equity 128.9%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Return On Equity 23.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.6%
EBITDA Margin 13.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 5.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Effective Tax Rate 30.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SWFT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWFT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4032 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Swift Transportation. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Swift Transportation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWFT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for SWFT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Swift Transportation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Swift Transportation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWFT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 42.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $2146 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWFT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Swift Transportation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Swift Transportation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWFT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWFT are equal to 46.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Swift Transportation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWFT is equal to 5.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $672 million for Swift Transportation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 136.584 million for Swift Transportation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Swift Transportation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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Financial statements of SWFT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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