Intrinsic value of Skyworks Solutions - SWKS

Previous Close

$96.47

  Intrinsic Value

$60.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-37%

Previous close

$96.47

 
Intrinsic value

$60.46

 
Up/down potential

-37%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.95
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,289
  3,355
  3,432
  3,520
  3,619
  3,729
  3,849
  3,980
  4,122
  4,275
  4,439
  4,615
  4,802
  5,001
  5,213
  5,438
  5,677
  5,929
  6,196
  6,478
  6,775
  7,089
  7,420
  7,769
  8,137
  8,525
  8,933
  9,362
  9,814
  10,289
  10,789
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,300
  2,351
  2,409
  2,474
  2,546
  2,626
  2,712
  2,806
  2,907
  3,015
  3,043
  3,167
  3,298
  3,438
  3,586
  3,743
  3,910
  4,086
  4,272
  4,468
  4,675
  4,893
  5,124
  5,366
  5,622
  5,891
  6,174
  6,472
  6,785
  7,115
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,170
  2,300
  2,351
  2,409
  2,474
  2,546
  2,626
  2,712
  2,806
  2,907
  3,015
  3,043
  3,167
  3,298
  3,438
  3,586
  3,743
  3,910
  4,086
  4,272
  4,468
  4,675
  4,893
  5,124
  5,366
  5,622
  5,891
  6,174
  6,472
  6,785
  7,115
Operating income, $m
  1,119
  1,055
  1,081
  1,111
  1,145
  1,183
  1,224
  1,268
  1,317
  1,369
  1,424
  1,572
  1,635
  1,703
  1,775
  1,852
  1,933
  2,019
  2,110
  2,206
  2,307
  2,414
  2,527
  2,646
  2,771
  2,903
  3,042
  3,188
  3,342
  3,504
  3,674
EBITDA, $m
  1,366
  1,269
  1,299
  1,332
  1,369
  1,411
  1,457
  1,506
  1,560
  1,618
  1,680
  1,746
  1,817
  1,893
  1,973
  2,058
  2,148
  2,243
  2,344
  2,451
  2,564
  2,683
  2,808
  2,940
  3,079
  3,226
  3,380
  3,543
  3,713
  3,893
  4,082
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,201
  1,055
  1,081
  1,111
  1,144
  1,181
  1,222
  1,266
  1,314
  1,366
  1,421
  1,568
  1,631
  1,698
  1,770
  1,846
  1,926
  2,011
  2,101
  2,196
  2,297
  2,403
  2,514
  2,632
  2,756
  2,887
  3,025
  3,169
  3,322
  3,482
  3,651
Tax expense, $m
  206
  285
  292
  300
  309
  319
  330
  342
  355
  369
  384
  423
  440
  459
  478
  498
  520
  543
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  711
  744
  779
  817
  856
  897
  940
  986
Net income, $m
  995
  770
  789
  811
  835
  862
  892
  924
  959
  997
  1,037
  1,144
  1,191
  1,240
  1,292
  1,347
  1,406
  1,468
  1,534
  1,603
  1,677
  1,754
  1,835
  1,921
  2,012
  2,107
  2,208
  2,314
  2,425
  2,542
  2,665

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,084
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,855
  2,826
  2,891
  2,966
  3,049
  3,141
  3,243
  3,353
  3,473
  3,602
  3,740
  3,888
  4,046
  4,214
  4,392
  4,582
  4,782
  4,995
  5,220
  5,457
  5,708
  5,972
  6,251
  6,545
  6,855
  7,182
  7,525
  7,887
  8,268
  8,668
  9,089
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,771
  2,826
  2,891
  2,966
  3,049
  3,141
  3,243
  3,353
  3,473
  3,602
  3,740
  3,888
  4,046
  4,214
  4,392
  4,582
  4,782
  4,995
  5,220
  5,457
  5,708
  5,972
  6,251
  6,545
  6,855
  7,182
  7,525
  7,887
  8,268
  8,668
  9,089
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
  1.187
Average production assets, $m
  872
  889
  909
  933
  959
  988
  1,020
  1,055
  1,092
  1,133
  1,176
  1,223
  1,273
  1,325
  1,382
  1,441
  1,504
  1,571
  1,642
  1,717
  1,795
  1,879
  1,966
  2,059
  2,156
  2,259
  2,367
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
  2,859
Working capital, $m
  1,792
  721
  738
  757
  778
  802
  828
  856
  886
  919
  954
  992
  1,032
  1,075
  1,121
  1,169
  1,220
  1,275
  1,332
  1,393
  1,457
  1,524
  1,595
  1,670
  1,750
  1,833
  1,921
  2,013
  2,110
  2,212
  2,320
Total debt, $m
  0
  5
  13
  21
  31
  41
  52
  65
  78
  93
  109
  125
  143
  162
  182
  204
  226
  250
  276
  303
  331
  361
  392
  426
  461
  498
  536
  577
  620
  665
  713
Total liabilities, $m
  314
  319
  327
  335
  345
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  423
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
  590
  617
  645
  675
  706
  740
  775
  812
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,027
Total equity, $m
  3,541
  2,507
  2,565
  2,630
  2,704
  2,786
  2,876
  2,974
  3,080
  3,195
  3,317
  3,448
  3,588
  3,737
  3,896
  4,064
  4,242
  4,430
  4,630
  4,840
  5,063
  5,297
  5,545
  5,806
  6,081
  6,370
  6,675
  6,996
  7,333
  7,689
  8,062
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,855
  2,826
  2,892
  2,965
  3,049
  3,141
  3,242
  3,353
  3,472
  3,602
  3,740
  3,887
  4,045
  4,213
  4,392
  4,582
  4,782
  4,994
  5,220
  5,457
  5,708
  5,972
  6,251
  6,546
  6,856
  7,182
  7,525
  7,887
  8,267
  8,668
  9,089
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.000
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887
  0.887

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  995
  770
  789
  811
  835
  862
  892
  924
  959
  997
  1,037
  1,144
  1,191
  1,240
  1,292
  1,347
  1,406
  1,468
  1,534
  1,603
  1,677
  1,754
  1,835
  1,921
  2,012
  2,107
  2,208
  2,314
  2,425
  2,542
  2,665
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  247
  214
  217
  221
  224
  228
  233
  238
  243
  249
  255
  175
  182
  189
  197
  206
  215
  224
  235
  245
  256
  268
  281
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  372
  390
  408
Funds from operations, $m
  896
  985
  1,007
  1,032
  1,060
  1,091
  1,125
  1,162
  1,203
  1,246
  1,293
  1,319
  1,372
  1,429
  1,489
  1,553
  1,621
  1,693
  1,768
  1,848
  1,933
  2,022
  2,116
  2,216
  2,320
  2,430
  2,546
  2,668
  2,796
  2,931
  3,073
Change in working capital, $m
  -200
  14
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  1,096
  970
  990
  1,013
  1,038
  1,067
  1,099
  1,134
  1,172
  1,213
  1,258
  1,281
  1,332
  1,386
  1,444
  1,505
  1,570
  1,638
  1,711
  1,788
  1,869
  1,955
  2,045
  2,141
  2,241
  2,347
  2,458
  2,576
  2,699
  2,829
  2,966
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -125
  -127
  -130
  -133
  -137
  -141
  -146
  -151
  -156
  -162
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -235
  -245
  -256
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -308
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -372
  -390
New CAPEX, $m
  -195
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -251
  -142
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -205
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -257
  -269
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -391
  -411
  -431
  -452
  -474
  -498
  -522
Free cash flow, $m
  845
  829
  842
  859
  879
  901
  926
  954
  984
  1,017
  1,052
  1,067
  1,108
  1,152
  1,198
  1,248
  1,301
  1,357
  1,416
  1,479
  1,545
  1,615
  1,689
  1,767
  1,849
  1,936
  2,028
  2,124
  2,225
  2,332
  2,444
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -571
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -604
  5
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  241
  834
  850
  868
  888
  912
  938
  966
  997
  1,031
  1,068
  1,084
  1,126
  1,170
  1,218
  1,269
  1,323
  1,381
  1,441
  1,505
  1,573
  1,645
  1,721
  1,800
  1,884
  1,973
  2,066
  2,165
  2,268
  2,377
  2,492
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -382
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -123
  -131
  -140
  -149
  -158
  -168
  -178
  -189
  -199
  -211
  -222
  -235
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -355
  -374
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,084
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,868
  792
  802
  814
  830
  848
  868
  891
  917
  945
  952
  986
  1,021
  1,060
  1,101
  1,145
  1,192
  1,242
  1,295
  1,351
  1,410
  1,473
  1,539
  1,610
  1,684
  1,762
  1,844
  1,931
  2,022
  2,118
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,791
  725
  698
  671
  643
  615
  587
  557
  527
  496
  452
  421
  388
  356
  323
  291
  259
  229
  199
  172
  146
  122
  101
  82
  65
  51
  40
  30
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Skyworks Solutions Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductor products, including intellectual property. The Company's analog semiconductors are connecting people, places, and things, spanning a number of new and unimagined applications within the automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. Its geographical segments include the United States, Other Americas, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Other Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa. It operates throughout the world with engineering, manufacturing, sales and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe and North America. It is engaged with key original equipment manufacturers (OEM), smartphone providers and baseband reference design partners. Its product portfolio consists of various solutions, including amplifiers, attenuators, detectors, diodes, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, mixers, switches, and modulators.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.9
Price to Sales 5.4
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -54.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.4
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 26.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
Return On Total Capital 29.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Return On Equity 29.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.7%
EBITDA Margin 44%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.2%
Operating Margin 34%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30%
Pre-Tax Margin 36.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.9%
Net Profit Margin 30.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Effective Tax Rate 17.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 20.2%

SWKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3289 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Skyworks Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Skyworks Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SWKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Skyworks Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Skyworks Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 68.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Skyworks Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Skyworks Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWKS are equal to 26.5%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Skyworks Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWKS is equal to 21.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3541 million for Skyworks Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 183.738 million for Skyworks Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Skyworks Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.7 billion.

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Financial statements of SWKS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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