Intrinsic value of Schweitzer-Mauduit International - SWM

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$37.40

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$37.40

 
Intrinsic value

$39.27

 
Up/down potential

+5%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.95
  8.40
  8.06
  7.75
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  840
  911
  984
  1,060
  1,140
  1,222
  1,308
  1,397
  1,489
  1,585
  1,686
  1,790
  1,898
  2,011
  2,129
  2,252
  2,381
  2,515
  2,655
  2,801
  2,954
  3,114
  3,281
  3,456
  3,640
  3,832
  4,032
  4,243
  4,463
  4,695
  4,937
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  786
  847
  911
  977
  1,047
  1,118
  1,193
  1,270
  1,351
  1,435
  1,499
  1,590
  1,685
  1,784
  1,887
  1,994
  2,107
  2,224
  2,346
  2,474
  2,608
  2,749
  2,895
  3,049
  3,209
  3,378
  3,554
  3,739
  3,932
  4,135
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  734
  786
  847
  911
  977
  1,047
  1,118
  1,193
  1,270
  1,351
  1,435
  1,499
  1,590
  1,685
  1,784
  1,887
  1,994
  2,107
  2,224
  2,346
  2,474
  2,608
  2,749
  2,895
  3,049
  3,209
  3,378
  3,554
  3,739
  3,932
  4,135
Operating income, $m
  106
  125
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  204
  219
  234
  251
  291
  308
  327
  346
  366
  387
  408
  431
  455
  480
  506
  533
  561
  591
  622
  655
  689
  725
  762
  802
EBITDA, $m
  151
  181
  196
  211
  227
  243
  260
  278
  297
  316
  336
  356
  378
  401
  424
  449
  474
  501
  529
  558
  588
  620
  653
  688
  725
  763
  803
  845
  889
  935
  983
Interest expense (income), $m
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  58
  62
  65
  69
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  122
Earnings before tax, $m
  93
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  176
  188
  201
  215
  252
  267
  282
  298
  315
  332
  351
  370
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  503
  530
  557
  586
  616
  647
  680
Tax expense, $m
  15
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
Net income, $m
  83
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  349
  368
  387
  407
  427
  449
  472
  496

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  107
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,174
  1,157
  1,250
  1,347
  1,448
  1,553
  1,661
  1,775
  1,892
  2,014
  2,142
  2,274
  2,412
  2,556
  2,706
  2,862
  3,025
  3,196
  3,373
  3,559
  3,754
  3,957
  4,169
  4,392
  4,625
  4,869
  5,124
  5,391
  5,671
  5,965
  6,273
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,067
  1,157
  1,250
  1,347
  1,448
  1,553
  1,661
  1,775
  1,892
  2,014
  2,142
  2,274
  2,412
  2,556
  2,706
  2,862
  3,025
  3,196
  3,373
  3,559
  3,754
  3,957
  4,169
  4,392
  4,625
  4,869
  5,124
  5,391
  5,671
  5,965
  6,273
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
  0.787
Average production assets, $m
  507
  549
  593
  639
  687
  737
  788
  842
  898
  956
  1,016
  1,079
  1,145
  1,213
  1,284
  1,358
  1,436
  1,517
  1,601
  1,689
  1,781
  1,878
  1,979
  2,084
  2,195
  2,310
  2,432
  2,558
  2,691
  2,831
  2,977
Working capital, $m
  228
  135
  146
  157
  169
  181
  194
  207
  220
  235
  249
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  415
  437
  461
  486
  512
  539
  567
  597
  628
  661
  695
  731
Total debt, $m
  440
  492
  550
  611
  673
  738
  806
  876
  949
  1,025
  1,104
  1,186
  1,272
  1,361
  1,454
  1,551
  1,653
  1,758
  1,869
  1,984
  2,105
  2,231
  2,363
  2,501
  2,646
  2,797
  2,956
  3,122
  3,296
  3,478
  3,670
Total liabilities, $m
  665
  718
  776
  837
  899
  964
  1,032
  1,102
  1,175
  1,251
  1,330
  1,412
  1,498
  1,587
  1,680
  1,777
  1,879
  1,984
  2,095
  2,210
  2,331
  2,457
  2,589
  2,727
  2,872
  3,023
  3,182
  3,348
  3,522
  3,704
  3,896
Total equity, $m
  508
  439
  474
  511
  549
  588
  630
  673
  717
  763
  812
  862
  914
  969
  1,025
  1,085
  1,147
  1,211
  1,279
  1,349
  1,423
  1,500
  1,580
  1,665
  1,753
  1,845
  1,942
  2,043
  2,149
  2,261
  2,377
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,173
  1,157
  1,250
  1,348
  1,448
  1,552
  1,662
  1,775
  1,892
  2,014
  2,142
  2,274
  2,412
  2,556
  2,705
  2,862
  3,026
  3,195
  3,374
  3,559
  3,754
  3,957
  4,169
  4,392
  4,625
  4,868
  5,124
  5,391
  5,671
  5,965
  6,273
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.866
  1.120
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.280
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.410
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.530
  1.530
  1.540
  1.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.376
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379
  0.379

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  83
  80
  87
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  184
  195
  206
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  284
  299
  315
  332
  349
  368
  387
  407
  427
  449
  472
  496
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  92
  98
  103
  109
  114
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
Funds from operations, $m
  122
  136
  146
  157
  168
  179
  190
  203
  215
  228
  242
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  348
  367
  387
  408
  430
  453
  476
  501
  527
  555
  583
  613
  645
  678
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
Cash from operations, $m
  130
  109
  136
  146
  156
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  227
  234
  248
  263
  278
  294
  311
  329
  347
  366
  385
  406
  428
  451
  474
  499
  525
  552
  581
  611
  642
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -22
  -74
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -176
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -227
  -237
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -319
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  35
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  109
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -135
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -137
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -30
  91
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  266
  280
  295
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
  401
  422
  443
  466
  490
  514
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -40
  -35
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  104
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  160
  80
  87
  93
  100
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  142
  151
  160
  170
  180
  190
  201
  213
  225
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  309
  325
  342
  360
  378
  398
Discount rate, %
 
  5.50
  5.78
  6.06
  6.37
  6.69
  7.02
  7.37
  7.74
  8.13
  8.53
  8.96
  9.41
  9.88
  10.37
  10.89
  11.43
  12.01
  12.61
  13.24
  13.90
  14.59
  15.32
  16.09
  16.89
  17.74
  18.62
  19.56
  20.53
  21.56
  22.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  152
  72
  73
  73
  73
  72
  70
  68
  65
  61
  55
  51
  47
  43
  38
  34
  29
  25
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides engineered solutions and advanced materials for various industries worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Engineered Papers and Advanced Materials & Structures. The Engineered Papers segment produces and sells cigarette papers, reconstituted tobacco leaf, and wrapper and binder products to cigarette and cigar manufacturers; and other non-tobacco commercial and industrial paper products. It also offers porous papers used to wrap various parts of a cigarette; low ignition propensity cigarette paper; and lightweight papers for printing and writing, flooring laminates, and food service packaging. The Advanced Materials & Structures segment manufactures resin-based products, such as films, nets, foams, and other non-wovens for filtration, surface protection, medical, and industrial applications. Schweitzer-Mauduit International, Inc. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Alpharetta, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Schweitzer-Mauduit International (SWM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.8
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 24%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 36
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 86%
Total Debt to Equity 86.6%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Total Capital 8.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Return On Equity 17%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.7%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
EBITDA Margin 18%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 12.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.8%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Payout Ratio 59%

SWM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $840 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Schweitzer-Mauduit International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Schweitzer-Mauduit International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.5%, whose default value for SWM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Schweitzer-Mauduit International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Schweitzer-Mauduit International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Schweitzer-Mauduit International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Schweitzer-Mauduit International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWM are equal to 60.3%.

Life of production assets of 16.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Schweitzer-Mauduit International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWM is equal to 14.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $508 million for Schweitzer-Mauduit International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 30.481 million for Schweitzer-Mauduit International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Schweitzer-Mauduit International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Schweitzer-Mauduit posts 1Q profit   [May-04-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ SWM ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2017 RESULTS   [May-03-17 04:49PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SWM ANNOUNCES CEO TRANSITION AND BOARD APPOINTMENTS   [Mar-30-17 08:21AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Schweitzer-Mauduit posts 4Q profit   [Feb-15-17 06:52PM  Associated Press]
▶ SWM INTL Announces Capacity Expansion for Filigree Papers   [Jan-17-17 03:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SWM ANNOUNCES SECOND QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [Aug-03-16 04:32PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SWM ANNOUNCES SENIOR LEADERSHIP CHANGES   [Jul-05-16 04:32PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SWM ANNOUNCES FIRST QUARTER 2016 RESULTS   [04:58PM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of SWM Financial statements of SWM Annual reports of SWM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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