Intrinsic value of Southwest Gas Holdings - SWX

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$77.18

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$77.18

 
Intrinsic value

$33.50

 
Up/down potential

-57%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.16
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,321
  2,509
  2,567
  2,633
  2,707
  2,789
  2,879
  2,977
  3,083
  3,198
  3,320
  3,452
  3,592
  3,741
  3,899
  4,068
  4,246
  4,434
  4,634
  4,845
  5,067
  5,302
  5,550
  5,811
  6,086
  6,376
  6,681
  7,002
  7,340
  7,696
  8,069
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,215
  2,266
  2,324
  2,389
  2,461
  2,540
  2,626
  2,719
  2,819
  2,927
  3,028
  3,151
  3,282
  3,421
  3,568
  3,725
  3,890
  4,065
  4,250
  4,446
  4,652
  4,869
  5,098
  5,340
  5,594
  5,861
  6,143
  6,440
  6,751
  7,079
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,165
  2,215
  2,266
  2,324
  2,389
  2,461
  2,540
  2,626
  2,719
  2,819
  2,927
  3,028
  3,151
  3,282
  3,421
  3,568
  3,725
  3,890
  4,065
  4,250
  4,446
  4,652
  4,869
  5,098
  5,340
  5,594
  5,861
  6,143
  6,440
  6,751
  7,079
Operating income, $m
  296
  294
  301
  309
  318
  328
  339
  351
  364
  378
  393
  423
  441
  459
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  594
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  782
  820
  859
  901
  944
  990
EBITDA, $m
  585
  308
  315
  323
  332
  342
  353
  365
  378
  392
  407
  423
  441
  459
  478
  499
  521
  544
  569
  594
  622
  651
  681
  713
  747
  782
  820
  859
  901
  944
  990
Interest expense (income), $m
  67
  66
  69
  73
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  115
  123
  132
  141
  151
  161
  173
  184
  197
  210
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  390
  413
Earnings before tax, $m
  232
  228
  232
  236
  241
  246
  251
  258
  264
  271
  279
  300
  309
  318
  328
  338
  348
  360
  372
  384
  398
  412
  426
  442
  458
  476
  494
  513
  533
  554
  577
Tax expense, $m
  79
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  128
  133
  139
  144
  150
  156
Net income, $m
  152
  166
  169
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  219
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  335
  347
  361
  375
  389
  405
  421

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,581
  5,664
  5,794
  5,943
  6,110
  6,296
  6,499
  6,720
  6,960
  7,218
  7,495
  7,791
  8,108
  8,444
  8,802
  9,182
  9,584
  10,010
  10,461
  10,936
  11,439
  11,969
  12,528
  13,118
  13,739
  14,393
  15,081
  15,806
  16,569
  17,372
  18,216
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,549
  5,664
  5,794
  5,943
  6,110
  6,296
  6,499
  6,720
  6,960
  7,218
  7,495
  7,791
  8,108
  8,444
  8,802
  9,182
  9,584
  10,010
  10,461
  10,936
  11,439
  11,969
  12,528
  13,118
  13,739
  14,393
  15,081
  15,806
  16,569
  17,372
  18,216
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.238
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
Average production assets, $m
  -1,801
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -95
  -78
  -80
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -250
Total debt, $m
  1,600
  1,647
  1,738
  1,842
  1,959
  2,089
  2,231
  2,386
  2,554
  2,735
  2,929
  3,136
  3,357
  3,593
  3,843
  4,109
  4,391
  4,689
  5,004
  5,338
  5,689
  6,060
  6,452
  6,864
  7,299
  7,757
  8,239
  8,746
  9,280
  9,842
  10,433
Total liabilities, $m
  3,918
  3,965
  4,056
  4,160
  4,277
  4,407
  4,549
  4,704
  4,872
  5,053
  5,247
  5,454
  5,675
  5,911
  6,161
  6,427
  6,709
  7,007
  7,322
  7,656
  8,007
  8,378
  8,770
  9,182
  9,617
  10,075
  10,557
  11,064
  11,598
  12,160
  12,751
Total equity, $m
  1,663
  1,699
  1,738
  1,783
  1,833
  1,889
  1,950
  2,016
  2,088
  2,165
  2,249
  2,337
  2,432
  2,533
  2,641
  2,755
  2,875
  3,003
  3,138
  3,281
  3,432
  3,591
  3,759
  3,935
  4,122
  4,318
  4,524
  4,742
  4,971
  5,211
  5,465
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,581
  5,664
  5,794
  5,943
  6,110
  6,296
  6,499
  6,720
  6,960
  7,218
  7,496
  7,791
  8,107
  8,444
  8,802
  9,182
  9,584
  10,010
  10,460
  10,937
  11,439
  11,969
  12,529
  13,117
  13,739
  14,393
  15,081
  15,806
  16,569
  17,371
  18,216
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.962
  0.970
  1.000
  1.030
  1.070
  1.110
  1.140
  1.180
  1.220
  1.260
  1.300
  1.340
  1.380
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.630
  1.660
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.770
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  152
  166
  169
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  219
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  335
  347
  361
  375
  389
  405
  421
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  289
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  689
  180
  183
  186
  190
  194
  198
  202
  207
  212
  217
  219
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  271
  280
  290
  300
  311
  323
  335
  347
  361
  375
  389
  405
  421
Change in working capital, $m
  91
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
Cash from operations, $m
  598
  143
  185
  188
  192
  196
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  223
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  297
  308
  319
  331
  343
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  433
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  360
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -530
  -1,801
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -1,441
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  72
  -1,297
  185
  188
  192
  196
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  223
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  268
  277
  287
  297
  308
  319
  331
  343
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  433
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  79
  91
  104
  117
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  194
  207
  221
  236
  250
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  391
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
  534
  562
  591
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  1,254
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  1,333
  91
  104
  117
  130
  142
  155
  168
  181
  194
  207
  221
  236
  250
  266
  282
  298
  315
  333
  352
  371
  391
  413
  435
  458
  482
  507
  534
  562
  591
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  -1,218
  276
  293
  309
  326
  343
  360
  378
  396
  415
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  541
  567
  593
  620
  649
  679
  710
  743
  778
  814
  852
  892
  934
  977
  1,023
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -36
  -39
  -45
  -50
  -56
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  237
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  306
  319
  332
  342
  356
  371
  387
  404
  421
  439
  458
  477
  498
  520
  543
  567
  592
  618
  645
  674
  705
  737
  770
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  206
  199
  190
  181
  170
  158
  146
  133
  120
  106
  93
  81
  70
  59
  49
  40
  33
  26
  20
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5
  74.5

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. purchases, distributes, and transports natural gas in Arizona, Nevada, and California. The company operates in two segments, Natural Gas Operations and Construction Services. As of September 30, 2016, it had 1,967,000 residential, commercial, industrial, and other natural gas customers. The company, through its subsidiaries, operates as an underground piping contractor that provides utility companies with trenching and installation, replacement, and maintenance services for energy distribution systems, and industrial construction solutions. It contracts primarily with local distribution companies to install, repair, and maintain energy distribution systems from the town border station to the end-user. The company also serves customers in the provinces of British Columbia and Ontario in Canada. Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.1
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 93.2%
Total Debt to Equity 96.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 54.6%

SWX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2460 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southwest Gas Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Southwest Gas Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for SWX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southwest Gas Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southwest Gas Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Southwest Gas Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southwest Gas Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWX are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of -5.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southwest Gas Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWX is equal to -3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1663 million for Southwest Gas Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.401 million for Southwest Gas Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southwest Gas Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ $10M fight over gas pipeline to ethanol plant   [May-18-17 02:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [May-10-17 05:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-27-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Feb-22-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Completes Holding Company Reorganization   [Jan-03-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Declares First Quarter 2017 Dividend   [Nov-15-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Corporation Announces Conference Call   [Nov-02-16 06:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Declares Fourth Quarter Dividend   [Sep-28-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Corporation Announces Conference Call   [Aug-02-16 06:44PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Declares Third Quarter Dividend   [May-04-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Corporation Announces Conference Call   [May-02-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Southwest Gas Corp. : April 25, 2016   [Apr-25-16 04:00PM  at Capital Cube]
Stock chart of SWX Financial statements of SWX Annual reports of SWX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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