Intrinsic value of SunCoke Energy - SXC

Previous Close

$8.73

  Intrinsic Value

$3.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-60%

  Value-price divergence*

+275%

Previous close

$8.73

 
Intrinsic value

$3.50

 
Up/down potential

-60%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+275%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SXC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -10.27
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  1,223
  1,348
  1,478
  1,614
  1,756
  1,904
  2,058
  2,217
  2,383
  2,556
  2,735
  2,922
  3,115
  3,317
  3,527
  3,745
  3,972
  4,209
  4,456
  4,714
  4,982
  5,263
  5,556
  5,862
  6,183
  6,517
  6,868
  7,234
  7,618
  8,019
  8,440
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,267
  1,389
  1,517
  1,649
  1,787
  1,931
  2,080
  2,236
  2,397
  2,564
  2,731
  2,912
  3,100
  3,296
  3,500
  3,713
  3,934
  4,165
  4,406
  4,657
  4,919
  5,193
  5,480
  5,779
  6,092
  6,419
  6,762
  7,120
  7,496
  7,889
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,102
  1,267
  1,389
  1,517
  1,649
  1,787
  1,931
  2,080
  2,236
  2,397
  2,564
  2,731
  2,912
  3,100
  3,296
  3,500
  3,713
  3,934
  4,165
  4,406
  4,657
  4,919
  5,193
  5,480
  5,779
  6,092
  6,419
  6,762
  7,120
  7,496
  7,889
Operating income, $m
  122
  80
  89
  98
  107
  117
  127
  137
  148
  159
  171
  191
  203
  217
  230
  245
  259
  275
  291
  308
  325
  344
  363
  383
  404
  426
  448
  472
  497
  524
  551
EBITDA, $m
  236
  208
  228
  249
  271
  294
  318
  343
  368
  395
  423
  452
  481
  513
  545
  579
  614
  651
  689
  728
  770
  813
  859
  906
  955
  1,007
  1,061
  1,118
  1,177
  1,239
  1,304
Interest expense (income), $m
  58
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  129
  144
  159
  175
  192
  209
  227
  245
  264
  284
  305
  327
  350
  374
  398
  424
  451
  479
  509
  540
  572
  606
  641
  678
Earnings before tax, $m
  68
  27
  25
  22
  19
  15
  12
  8
  4
  0
  -4
  -1
  -5
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -127
Tax expense, $m
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  14
  20
  18
  16
  14
  11
  8
  6
  3
  0
  -4
  -1
  -5
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -127

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,121
  2,188
  2,400
  2,621
  2,851
  3,091
  3,340
  3,600
  3,869
  4,149
  4,440
  4,743
  5,057
  5,385
  5,725
  6,079
  6,448
  6,833
  7,234
  7,652
  8,088
  8,544
  9,020
  9,517
  10,037
  10,580
  11,149
  11,744
  12,366
  13,018
  13,701
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,987
  2,188
  2,400
  2,621
  2,851
  3,091
  3,340
  3,600
  3,869
  4,149
  4,440
  4,743
  5,057
  5,385
  5,725
  6,079
  6,448
  6,833
  7,234
  7,652
  8,088
  8,544
  9,020
  9,517
  10,037
  10,580
  11,149
  11,744
  12,366
  13,018
  13,701
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
  0.616
Average production assets, $m
  1,747
  1,925
  2,111
  2,305
  2,508
  2,719
  2,938
  3,167
  3,404
  3,650
  3,906
  4,172
  4,449
  4,737
  5,036
  5,348
  5,672
  6,011
  6,363
  6,731
  7,115
  7,516
  7,934
  8,372
  8,829
  9,307
  9,807
  10,330
  10,878
  11,451
  12,052
Working capital, $m
  144
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  53
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
Total debt, $m
  854
  1,013
  1,204
  1,403
  1,610
  1,826
  2,050
  2,284
  2,526
  2,778
  3,040
  3,313
  3,596
  3,890
  4,197
  4,515
  4,848
  5,194
  5,555
  5,931
  6,324
  6,734
  7,162
  7,609
  8,077
  8,566
  9,078
  9,613
  10,174
  10,760
  11,375
Total liabilities, $m
  1,810
  1,969
  2,160
  2,359
  2,566
  2,782
  3,006
  3,240
  3,482
  3,734
  3,996
  4,269
  4,552
  4,846
  5,153
  5,471
  5,804
  6,150
  6,511
  6,887
  7,280
  7,690
  8,118
  8,565
  9,033
  9,522
  10,034
  10,569
  11,130
  11,716
  12,331
Total equity, $m
  311
  219
  240
  262
  285
  309
  334
  360
  387
  415
  444
  474
  506
  538
  573
  608
  645
  683
  723
  765
  809
  854
  902
  952
  1,004
  1,058
  1,115
  1,174
  1,237
  1,302
  1,370
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,121
  2,188
  2,400
  2,621
  2,851
  3,091
  3,340
  3,600
  3,869
  4,149
  4,440
  4,743
  5,058
  5,384
  5,726
  6,079
  6,449
  6,833
  7,234
  7,652
  8,089
  8,544
  9,020
  9,517
  10,037
  10,580
  11,149
  11,743
  12,367
  13,018
  13,701
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.746
  4.630
  5.020
  5.350
  5.650
  5.910
  6.140
  6.340
  6.530
  6.700
  6.850
  6.980
  7.110
  7.220
  7.330
  7.430
  7.520
  7.600
  7.680
  7.750
  7.820
  7.880
  7.940
  8.000
  8.050
  8.100
  8.140
  8.190
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.089
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  20
  18
  16
  14
  11
  8
  6
  3
  0
  -4
  -1
  -5
  -10
  -15
  -20
  -25
  -31
  -36
  -42
  -48
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -127
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  128
  140
  152
  164
  178
  191
  206
  220
  236
  252
  261
  278
  296
  315
  334
  355
  376
  398
  421
  445
  470
  496
  523
  552
  582
  613
  646
  680
  716
  753
Funds from operations, $m
  268
  148
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  211
  223
  236
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  396
  415
  434
  455
  476
  498
  522
  546
  572
  598
  626
Change in working capital, $m
  49
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  219
  146
  156
  166
  176
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  246
  258
  270
  284
  297
  312
  327
  342
  359
  375
  393
  412
  431
  451
  472
  494
  517
  542
  567
  594
  621
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -109
  -120
  -132
  -144
  -157
  -170
  -184
  -198
  -213
  -228
  -244
  -261
  -278
  -296
  -315
  -334
  -355
  -376
  -398
  -421
  -445
  -470
  -496
  -523
  -552
  -582
  -613
  -646
  -680
  -716
New CAPEX, $m
  -64
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -256
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -299
  -312
  -325
  -338
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -437
  -457
  -478
  -500
  -523
  -548
  -573
  -601
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -287
  -306
  -326
  -347
  -368
  -389
  -412
  -435
  -459
  -484
  -510
  -538
  -566
  -595
  -627
  -659
  -693
  -729
  -766
  -805
  -846
  -889
  -933
  -980
  -1,030
  -1,082
  -1,136
  -1,194
  -1,253
  -1,317
Free cash flow, $m
  183
  -141
  -150
  -160
  -170
  -181
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -225
  -239
  -252
  -267
  -282
  -298
  -315
  -332
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -434
  -457
  -482
  -508
  -535
  -564
  -595
  -626
  -660
  -695
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -121
  164
  191
  199
  207
  216
  225
  233
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  294
  306
  319
  332
  346
  361
  376
  393
  410
  428
  447
  468
  489
  512
  535
  560
  587
  615
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  17
  3
  6
  9
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  31
  37
  43
  49
  55
  62
  69
  76
  84
  92
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
  148
  159
  171
  183
  195
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -172
  181
  194
  205
  216
  229
  241
  253
  267
  280
  295
  303
  320
  337
  355
  374
  394
  415
  437
  460
  485
  510
  537
  565
  596
  627
  660
  694
  731
  770
  810
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  11
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  51
  53
  55
  57
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  109
  115
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -37
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -33
  -31
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -171
  -183
  -195
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  129
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  23
  20
  16
  12
  8
  4
  0
  -4
  -9
  -14
  -19
  -24
  -29
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  122
  19
  17
  16
  15
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.0
  94.3
  93.0
  91.2
  89.0
  86.4
  83.6
  80.6
  77.5
  74.2
  71.5
  68.5
  65.5
  62.3
  59.2
  56.0
  52.9
  49.8
  46.8
  43.9
  41.1
  38.3
  35.8
  33.3
  30.9
  28.7
  26.6
  24.6
  22.8
  21.0

SunCoke Energy, Inc. is a producer of coke in the Americas. The Company's segments include Domestic Coke, Brazil Coke, Coal Logistics, and Corporate and Other. The Domestic Coke segment consists of its Jewell Coke Company, L.P. (Jewell), Indiana Harbor Coke Company (Indiana Harbor), Haverhill Coke Company LLC (Haverhill), Gateway Energy and Coke Company, LLC (Granite City) and Middletown Coke Company, LLC (Middletown) cokemaking and heat recovery operations. The Brazil Coke segment consists of its operations in Vitoria, Brazil, where the Company operate a cokemaking facility, ArcelorMittal Brasil S.A. The Coal Logistics segment consists of its Convent Marine Terminal (CMT), Kanawha River Terminals, LLC (KRT), SunCoke Lake Terminal, LLC (Lake Terminal) and Dismal River Terminal, LLC (DRT) coal handling and/or mixing service operations. It designs, develops, builds, owns and operates five cokemaking facilities in the United States, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SunCoke Energy (SXC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 40.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 3.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -10.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 27
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 273%
Total Debt to Equity 274.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Total Capital 1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.9%
Return On Equity 4.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.5%
EBITDA Margin 19.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Operating Margin 9.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.9%
Effective Tax Rate 11.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Payout Ratio 0%

SXC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SXC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1223 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SunCoke Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of SunCoke Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SXC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for SXC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SunCoke Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SunCoke Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SXC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SXC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for SunCoke Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SunCoke Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SXC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SXC are equal to 142.8%.

Life of production assets of 16 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SunCoke Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SXC is equal to 1.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $311 million for SunCoke Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.329 million for SunCoke Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SunCoke Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SXCP SunCoke Energy 16.95 3.56  str.sell
MT ArcelorMittal 25.99 6.05  str.sell
HCC Warrior Met Co 23.28 3.46  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Biggest MLP Losses Last Week   [Sep-18-17 01:00PM  Market Realist]
▶ SunCoke Energy Doesn't Look Very Sunny   [Aug-07-17 02:24PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ SunCoke reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-17 03:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ SunCoke Energy Partners Provides Opportunity for Investors   [May-09-17 03:59PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ SunCoke posts 1Q profit   [08:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Warrior Met Coal IPO: What Investors Need to Know   [Apr-13-17 08:56PM  Motley Fool]
▶ SunCoke posts 4Q profit   [08:04AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of SXC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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