Intrinsic value of Southcross Energy Partners - SXE

Previous Close

$2.41

  Intrinsic Value

$2.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-6%

  Value-price divergence*

-90%

Previous close

$2.41

 
Intrinsic value

$2.26

 
Up/down potential

-6%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-90%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.35
  29.20
  26.78
  24.60
  22.64
  20.88
  19.29
  17.86
  16.57
  15.42
  14.38
  13.44
  12.59
  11.83
  11.15
  10.54
  9.98
  9.48
  9.04
  8.63
  8.27
  7.94
  7.65
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.74
  6.56
  6.41
  6.27
  6.14
Revenue, $m
  549
  709
  899
  1,120
  1,374
  1,661
  1,982
  2,335
  2,723
  3,142
  3,594
  4,077
  4,590
  5,134
  5,706
  6,307
  6,937
  7,595
  8,281
  8,996
  9,740
  10,514
  11,318
  12,153
  13,021
  13,924
  14,862
  15,837
  16,852
  17,908
  19,008
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  576
  730
  910
  1,116
  1,349
  1,609
  1,896
  2,211
  2,552
  2,918
  3,310
  3,727
  4,169
  4,633
  5,122
  5,633
  6,167
  6,724
  7,305
  7,909
  8,537
  9,190
  9,868
  10,573
  11,306
  12,068
  12,860
  13,684
  14,542
  15,434
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  587
  725
  882
  1,066
  1,276
  1,513
  1,777
  2,068
  2,388
  2,733
  3,104
  3,500
  3,922
  4,369
  4,838
  5,332
  5,848
  6,388
  6,950
  7,537
  8,147
  8,781
  9,440
  10,124
  10,835
  11,575
  12,344
  13,142
  13,973
  14,839
  15,738
Operating income, $m
  -39
  -15
  17
  55
  98
  148
  204
  267
  335
  410
  490
  576
  668
  765
  868
  976
  1,089
  1,207
  1,331
  1,459
  1,594
  1,733
  1,878
  2,029
  2,186
  2,349
  2,519
  2,695
  2,879
  3,070
  3,269
EBITDA, $m
  68
  113
  180
  257
  347
  449
  563
  690
  828
  979
  1,141
  1,315
  1,499
  1,695
  1,901
  2,118
  2,345
  2,583
  2,830
  3,089
  3,357
  3,637
  3,928
  4,230
  4,544
  4,870
  5,210
  5,563
  5,931
  6,313
  6,712
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  30
  40
  52
  65
  81
  99
  119
  140
  164
  190
  218
  248
  280
  314
  349
  386
  425
  466
  508
  553
  599
  647
  696
  748
  802
  858
  916
  976
  1,039
  1,104
Earnings before tax, $m
  -95
  -45
  -23
  3
  33
  67
  106
  148
  195
  245
  300
  358
  420
  485
  554
  627
  703
  782
  865
  951
  1,041
  1,134
  1,231
  1,333
  1,438
  1,547
  1,661
  1,779
  1,903
  2,031
  2,165
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  9
  18
  29
  40
  53
  66
  81
  97
  113
  131
  150
  169
  190
  211
  233
  257
  281
  306
  332
  360
  388
  418
  448
  480
  514
  548
  585
Net income, $m
  -95
  -45
  -23
  2
  24
  49
  77
  108
  142
  179
  219
  261
  306
  354
  405
  457
  513
  571
  631
  694
  760
  828
  899
  973
  1,050
  1,129
  1,212
  1,299
  1,389
  1,483
  1,580

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,186
  1,506
  1,909
  2,379
  2,918
  3,527
  4,207
  4,958
  5,780
  6,671
  7,631
  8,656
  9,746
  10,900
  12,115
  13,391
  14,728
  16,125
  17,582
  19,100
  20,679
  22,322
  24,029
  25,803
  27,646
  29,562
  31,554
  33,625
  35,780
  38,022
  40,356
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,165
  1,506
  1,909
  2,379
  2,918
  3,527
  4,207
  4,958
  5,780
  6,671
  7,631
  8,656
  9,746
  10,900
  12,115
  13,391
  14,728
  16,125
  17,582
  19,100
  20,679
  22,322
  24,029
  25,803
  27,646
  29,562
  31,554
  33,625
  35,780
  38,022
  40,356
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
Average production assets, $m
  995
  1,285
  1,629
  2,029
  2,489
  3,008
  3,589
  4,229
  4,931
  5,691
  6,509
  7,383
  8,313
  9,297
  10,334
  11,423
  12,563
  13,754
  14,997
  16,292
  17,639
  19,040
  20,496
  22,009
  23,582
  25,216
  26,915
  28,682
  30,519
  32,432
  34,423
Working capital, $m
  21
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  37
  41
  46
  51
  57
  62
  68
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  161
  171
Total debt, $m
  548
  724
  938
  1,187
  1,472
  1,795
  2,156
  2,554
  2,990
  3,462
  3,970
  4,514
  5,091
  5,703
  6,347
  7,023
  7,732
  8,472
  9,245
  10,049
  10,886
  11,756
  12,661
  13,602
  14,579
  15,594
  16,650
  17,747
  18,889
  20,078
  21,315
Total liabilities, $m
  622
  798
  1,012
  1,261
  1,546
  1,869
  2,230
  2,628
  3,064
  3,536
  4,044
  4,588
  5,165
  5,777
  6,421
  7,097
  7,806
  8,546
  9,319
  10,123
  10,960
  11,830
  12,735
  13,676
  14,653
  15,668
  16,724
  17,821
  18,963
  20,152
  21,389
Total equity, $m
  564
  708
  897
  1,118
  1,371
  1,658
  1,977
  2,330
  2,717
  3,136
  3,586
  4,068
  4,581
  5,123
  5,694
  6,294
  6,922
  7,579
  8,264
  8,977
  9,719
  10,491
  11,294
  12,127
  12,994
  13,894
  14,830
  15,804
  16,816
  17,870
  18,967
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,186
  1,506
  1,909
  2,379
  2,917
  3,527
  4,207
  4,958
  5,781
  6,672
  7,630
  8,656
  9,746
  10,900
  12,115
  13,391
  14,728
  16,125
  17,583
  19,100
  20,679
  22,321
  24,029
  25,803
  27,647
  29,562
  31,554
  33,625
  35,779
  38,022
  40,356
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.972
  1.020
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.080
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.466
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -95
  -45
  -23
  2
  24
  49
  77
  108
  142
  179
  219
  261
  306
  354
  405
  457
  513
  571
  631
  694
  760
  828
  899
  973
  1,050
  1,129
  1,212
  1,299
  1,389
  1,483
  1,580
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  107
  128
  163
  203
  249
  301
  359
  423
  493
  569
  651
  738
  831
  930
  1,033
  1,142
  1,256
  1,375
  1,500
  1,629
  1,764
  1,904
  2,050
  2,201
  2,358
  2,522
  2,692
  2,868
  3,052
  3,243
  3,442
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  83
  140
  205
  273
  350
  436
  531
  635
  748
  870
  1,000
  1,138
  1,284
  1,438
  1,600
  1,769
  1,946
  2,131
  2,323
  2,524
  2,732
  2,949
  3,174
  3,408
  3,651
  3,904
  4,167
  4,441
  4,726
  5,023
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  82
  138
  203
  271
  347
  433
  528
  632
  744
  866
  995
  1,133
  1,279
  1,433
  1,594
  1,764
  1,940
  2,125
  2,317
  2,517
  2,725
  2,941
  3,166
  3,400
  3,643
  3,895
  4,158
  4,432
  4,716
  5,013
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -99
  -128
  -163
  -203
  -249
  -301
  -359
  -423
  -493
  -569
  -651
  -738
  -831
  -930
  -1,033
  -1,142
  -1,256
  -1,375
  -1,500
  -1,629
  -1,764
  -1,904
  -2,050
  -2,201
  -2,358
  -2,522
  -2,692
  -2,868
  -3,052
  -3,243
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -290
  -344
  -401
  -459
  -520
  -580
  -641
  -701
  -760
  -818
  -875
  -930
  -984
  -1,037
  -1,089
  -1,140
  -1,192
  -1,243
  -1,295
  -1,347
  -1,401
  -1,456
  -1,513
  -1,573
  -1,634
  -1,699
  -1,767
  -1,838
  -1,912
  -1,991
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -389
  -472
  -564
  -662
  -769
  -881
  -1,000
  -1,124
  -1,253
  -1,387
  -1,526
  -1,668
  -1,815
  -1,967
  -2,122
  -2,282
  -2,448
  -2,618
  -2,795
  -2,976
  -3,165
  -3,360
  -3,563
  -3,774
  -3,992
  -4,221
  -4,459
  -4,706
  -4,964
  -5,234
Free cash flow, $m
  42
  -308
  -334
  -360
  -392
  -421
  -448
  -472
  -492
  -509
  -522
  -530
  -535
  -536
  -534
  -528
  -519
  -507
  -493
  -477
  -459
  -440
  -419
  -397
  -374
  -350
  -325
  -300
  -274
  -248
  -222
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -64
  181
  214
  249
  285
  323
  361
  398
  436
  472
  508
  543
  578
  611
  644
  677
  709
  740
  772
  804
  837
  870
  905
  940
  977
  1,015
  1,056
  1,098
  1,142
  1,188
  1,237
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  205
  213
  219
  229
  237
  243
  245
  244
  240
  232
  221
  206
  188
  167
  142
  115
  86
  54
  19
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  386
  427
  468
  514
  560
  604
  643
  680
  712
  740
  764
  784
  799
  811
  819
  824
  826
  826
  823
  837
  870
  905
  940
  977
  1,015
  1,056
  1,098
  1,142
  1,188
  1,237
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  78
  92
  107
  123
  139
  155
  171
  187
  203
  219
  234
  249
  263
  277
  291
  305
  319
  332
  346
  378
  431
  486
  544
  604
  666
  731
  798
  868
  940
  1,016
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  57
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -253
  -286
  -320
  -353
  -386
  -419
  -451
  -482
  -512
  -542
  -571
  -600
  -628
  -657
  -685
  -713
  -742
  -772
  -802
  -834
  -866
  -901
  -936
  -973
  -1,013
  -1,054
  -1,097
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -110
  -121
  -114
  -130
  -147
  -165
  -182
  -199
  -216
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -279
  -294
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -352
  -367
  -365
  -341
  -316
  -290
  -263
  -235
  -206
  -176
  -145
  -114
  -81
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -101
  -101
  -85
  -87
  -87
  -85
  -81
  -76
  -69
  -62
  -54
  -46
  -39
  -32
  -26
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  65.2
  45.6
  33.8
  26.2
  21.0
  17.4
  14.7
  12.8
  11.4
  10.3
  9.5
  8.8
  8.3
  8.0
  7.7
  7.5
  7.4
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3
  7.3

Southcross Energy Partners, L.P., together with its subsidiaries, provides natural gas gathering, processing, treating, compression, and transportation services in the United States. The company also offers natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and transportation services. In addition, it supplies natural gas to industrial, commercial, and power generation customers, as well as local distribution companies. The company operates 4 gas processing plants, 2 fractionation plants, and approximately 3,138 miles of pipeline in south Texas, Mississippi, and Alabama. Southcross Energy Partners GP, LLC operates as a general partner of Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. is a subsidiary of Southcross Holdings Borrower LP.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southcross Energy Partners (SXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -76.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 96.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -16%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Net Profit Margin -17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $549 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southcross Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Southcross Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 29.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for SXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southcross Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southcross Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Southcross Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southcross Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SXE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SXE are equal to 181.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southcross Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SXE is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $564 million for Southcross Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 62.396 million for Southcross Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southcross Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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Stock chart of SXE Financial statements of SXE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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