Intrinsic value of Southcross Energy Partners - SXE

Previous Close

$1.83

  Intrinsic Value

$1.82

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-1%

Previous close

$1.83

 
Intrinsic value

$1.82

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.35
  17.20
  15.98
  14.88
  13.89
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.84
  10.25
  9.73
  9.25
  8.83
  8.45
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
Revenue, $m
  549
  643
  746
  857
  976
  1,103
  1,238
  1,380
  1,530
  1,687
  1,851
  2,022
  2,200
  2,386
  2,580
  2,781
  2,989
  3,206
  3,432
  3,666
  3,910
  4,164
  4,427
  4,702
  4,988
  5,286
  5,597
  5,920
  6,259
  6,611
  6,980
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  522
  606
  696
  793
  896
  1,005
  1,121
  1,242
  1,370
  1,503
  1,642
  1,787
  1,938
  2,095
  2,258
  2,427
  2,604
  2,787
  2,977
  3,175
  3,381
  3,595
  3,818
  4,050
  4,292
  4,544
  4,807
  5,082
  5,368
  5,668
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
  256
  262
  269
  276
  282
  289
  297
  304
Total operating expenses, $m
  587
  671
  758
  852
  953
  1,060
  1,173
  1,293
  1,419
  1,551
  1,689
  1,832
  1,982
  2,138
  2,300
  2,468
  2,642
  2,825
  3,013
  3,209
  3,413
  3,625
  3,845
  4,074
  4,312
  4,561
  4,820
  5,089
  5,371
  5,665
  5,972
Operating income, $m
  -39
  -28
  -12
  5
  24
  43
  65
  87
  111
  136
  162
  190
  219
  249
  280
  313
  347
  382
  419
  457
  498
  539
  583
  628
  675
  725
  777
  831
  887
  946
  1,008
EBITDA, $m
  68
  98
  133
  172
  214
  258
  306
  356
  409
  464
  523
  584
  647
  713
  782
  854
  929
  1,007
  1,087
  1,171
  1,259
  1,350
  1,445
  1,544
  1,647
  1,754
  1,866
  1,984
  2,106
  2,234
  2,367
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  30
  36
  42
  49
  56
  64
  73
  81
  91
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  156
  168
  181
  194
  208
  223
  238
  254
  270
  287
  305
  323
  342
  362
  383
  405
Earnings before tax, $m
  -95
  -58
  -48
  -37
  -25
  -13
  0
  15
  30
  45
  62
  79
  98
  117
  136
  157
  179
  201
  225
  249
  275
  301
  329
  358
  389
  420
  454
  488
  525
  563
  603
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  4
  8
  12
  17
  21
  26
  31
  37
  42
  48
  54
  61
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  113
  122
  132
  142
  152
  163
Net income, $m
  -95
  -58
  -48
  -37
  -25
  -13
  0
  11
  22
  33
  45
  58
  71
  85
  100
  115
  130
  147
  164
  182
  201
  220
  240
  261
  284
  307
  331
  356
  383
  411
  440

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,186
  1,366
  1,584
  1,820
  2,073
  2,343
  2,629
  2,930
  3,248
  3,581
  3,929
  4,293
  4,672
  5,066
  5,477
  5,903
  6,347
  6,808
  7,287
  7,784
  8,302
  8,840
  9,400
  9,983
  10,590
  11,223
  11,882
  12,570
  13,288
  14,037
  14,819
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,165
  1,366
  1,584
  1,820
  2,073
  2,343
  2,629
  2,930
  3,248
  3,581
  3,929
  4,293
  4,672
  5,066
  5,477
  5,903
  6,347
  6,808
  7,287
  7,784
  8,302
  8,840
  9,400
  9,983
  10,590
  11,223
  11,882
  12,570
  13,288
  14,037
  14,819
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
Average production assets, $m
  995
  1,165
  1,351
  1,553
  1,768
  1,998
  2,242
  2,500
  2,770
  3,054
  3,352
  3,662
  3,985
  4,321
  4,672
  5,036
  5,414
  5,807
  6,215
  6,640
  7,081
  7,540
  8,018
  8,515
  9,033
  9,573
  10,135
  10,722
  11,334
  11,973
  12,641
Working capital, $m
  21
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
Total debt, $m
  548
  650
  766
  891
  1,025
  1,168
  1,319
  1,479
  1,647
  1,824
  2,008
  2,201
  2,402
  2,611
  2,829
  3,055
  3,290
  3,534
  3,788
  4,052
  4,326
  4,611
  4,908
  5,217
  5,539
  5,874
  6,224
  6,588
  6,968
  7,366
  7,780
Total liabilities, $m
  622
  724
  840
  965
  1,099
  1,242
  1,393
  1,553
  1,721
  1,898
  2,082
  2,275
  2,476
  2,685
  2,903
  3,129
  3,364
  3,608
  3,862
  4,126
  4,400
  4,685
  4,982
  5,291
  5,613
  5,948
  6,298
  6,662
  7,042
  7,440
  7,854
Total equity, $m
  564
  642
  745
  855
  974
  1,101
  1,235
  1,377
  1,527
  1,683
  1,847
  2,018
  2,196
  2,381
  2,574
  2,775
  2,983
  3,200
  3,425
  3,659
  3,902
  4,155
  4,418
  4,692
  4,977
  5,275
  5,585
  5,908
  6,245
  6,597
  6,965
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,186
  1,366
  1,585
  1,820
  2,073
  2,343
  2,628
  2,930
  3,248
  3,581
  3,929
  4,293
  4,672
  5,066
  5,477
  5,904
  6,347
  6,808
  7,287
  7,785
  8,302
  8,840
  9,400
  9,983
  10,590
  11,223
  11,883
  12,570
  13,287
  14,037
  14,819
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.972
  1.010
  1.030
  1.040
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.466
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -95
  -58
  -48
  -37
  -25
  -13
  0
  11
  22
  33
  45
  58
  71
  85
  100
  115
  130
  147
  164
  182
  201
  220
  240
  261
  284
  307
  331
  356
  383
  411
  440
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  107
  125
  145
  167
  190
  215
  241
  269
  298
  328
  360
  394
  428
  465
  502
  541
  582
  624
  668
  714
  761
  811
  862
  916
  971
  1,029
  1,090
  1,153
  1,219
  1,287
  1,359
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  68
  98
  130
  165
  202
  241
  279
  319
  362
  406
  452
  500
  550
  602
  656
  713
  771
  832
  896
  962
  1,031
  1,102
  1,177
  1,255
  1,336
  1,421
  1,509
  1,602
  1,698
  1,799
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  67
  97
  129
  164
  201
  240
  278
  318
  360
  404
  450
  498
  548
  600
  654
  711
  769
  830
  894
  960
  1,028
  1,100
  1,175
  1,252
  1,333
  1,418
  1,506
  1,599
  1,695
  1,796
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -107
  -125
  -145
  -167
  -190
  -215
  -241
  -269
  -298
  -328
  -360
  -394
  -428
  -465
  -502
  -541
  -582
  -624
  -668
  -714
  -761
  -811
  -862
  -916
  -971
  -1,029
  -1,090
  -1,153
  -1,219
  -1,287
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -171
  -186
  -201
  -216
  -230
  -244
  -257
  -271
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -408
  -425
  -441
  -459
  -478
  -497
  -518
  -540
  -562
  -587
  -612
  -639
  -667
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -278
  -311
  -346
  -383
  -420
  -459
  -498
  -540
  -582
  -625
  -670
  -717
  -765
  -815
  -866
  -919
  -975
  -1,032
  -1,093
  -1,155
  -1,220
  -1,289
  -1,359
  -1,434
  -1,511
  -1,591
  -1,677
  -1,765
  -1,858
  -1,954
Free cash flow, $m
  42
  -211
  -215
  -218
  -219
  -219
  -219
  -220
  -221
  -222
  -221
  -220
  -219
  -217
  -215
  -212
  -209
  -206
  -203
  -199
  -196
  -192
  -188
  -185
  -181
  -177
  -174
  -170
  -166
  -163
  -159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -64
  107
  116
  125
  134
  143
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  264
  274
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  349
  365
  380
  397
  415
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  152
  150
  148
  144
  140
  134
  131
  128
  123
  118
  113
  107
  100
  93
  86
  78
  70
  61
  52
  43
  33
  23
  13
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  259
  266
  273
  278
  283
  286
  291
  296
  299
  303
  306
  308
  309
  311
  312
  313
  314
  315
  316
  317
  318
  320
  322
  324
  335
  349
  365
  380
  397
  415
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  158
  176
  195
  214
  235
  256
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  57
  -152
  -150
  -148
  -144
  -140
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -208
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -297
  -310
  -323
  -337
  -352
  -368
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -88
  -99
  -93
  -85
  -76
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -139
  -134
  -129
  -123
  -118
  -112
Discount rate, %
 
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -80
  -83
  -70
  -57
  -45
  -35
  -32
  -29
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  71.7
  53.7
  41.8
  33.7
  28.0
  23.8
  20.7
  18.3
  16.4
  14.9
  13.7
  12.7
  11.9
  11.3
  10.8
  10.4
  10.0
  9.8
  9.6
  9.4
  9.3
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2
  9.2

Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. provides natural gas gathering, processing, treating, compression and transportation services and natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and transportation services. The Company also sources, purchases, transports and sells natural gas and NGLs. Its assets are located in South Texas, Mississippi and Alabama As of December 31, 2016, its assets consisted of gathering systems, intrastate pipelines, two natural gas processing plants, one fractionation facility, 20 compressor stations and a treating system. Its gathering systems and intrastate pipelines include South Texas and Mississippi/Alabama. The assets in its South Texas region are located between Montgomery County, which is north of Houston, and Webb and Dimmit Counties near the Texas-Mexico border. The assets in its Mississippi region are located principally in the southern half of the state and consist of intrastate pipeline system in Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southcross Energy Partners (SXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 5.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -76.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 96.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -16%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Net Profit Margin -17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $549 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southcross Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Southcross Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for SXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southcross Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southcross Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $145 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for Southcross Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southcross Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SXE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SXE are equal to 181.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southcross Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SXE is equal to 0.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $564 million for Southcross Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.45 million for Southcross Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southcross Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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Financial statements of SXE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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