Intrinsic value of Southcross Energy Partners - SXE

Previous Close

$1.59

  Intrinsic Value

$2.05

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+29%

Previous close

$1.59

 
Intrinsic value

$2.05

 
Up/down potential

+29%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.35
  21.40
  19.76
  18.28
  16.96
  15.76
  14.68
  13.72
  12.84
  12.06
  11.35
  10.72
  10.15
  9.63
  9.17
  8.75
  8.38
  8.04
  7.74
  7.46
  7.22
  6.99
  6.79
  6.62
  6.45
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.95
  5.86
  5.77
Revenue, $m
  549
  809
  968
  1,145
  1,340
  1,551
  1,778
  2,022
  2,282
  2,557
  2,848
  3,153
  3,473
  3,807
  4,156
  4,520
  4,899
  5,292
  5,702
  6,127
  6,569
  7,029
  7,506
  8,003
  8,519
  9,057
  9,616
  10,199
  10,806
  11,439
  12,099
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  644
  772
  913
  1,068
  1,236
  1,417
  1,612
  1,819
  2,038
  2,269
  2,513
  2,768
  3,034
  3,312
  3,602
  3,904
  4,218
  4,544
  4,883
  5,236
  5,602
  5,982
  6,378
  6,790
  7,218
  7,664
  8,128
  8,612
  9,117
  9,643
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  158
  162
  165
  169
  173
  177
  181
  184
  189
  193
  197
  201
  206
  210
  215
  220
  224
  229
  234
  240
  245
  250
  256
  261
  267
  273
  279
  285
  291
  298
Total operating expenses, $m
  587
  802
  934
  1,078
  1,237
  1,409
  1,594
  1,793
  2,003
  2,227
  2,462
  2,710
  2,969
  3,240
  3,522
  3,817
  4,124
  4,442
  4,773
  5,117
  5,476
  5,847
  6,232
  6,634
  7,051
  7,485
  7,937
  8,407
  8,897
  9,408
  9,941
Operating income, $m
  -39
  6
  35
  67
  103
  142
  184
  230
  279
  331
  385
  443
  504
  567
  633
  703
  775
  850
  928
  1,009
  1,094
  1,182
  1,274
  1,369
  1,468
  1,571
  1,679
  1,791
  1,909
  2,031
  2,158
EBITDA, $m
  68
  120
  172
  229
  293
  362
  436
  516
  602
  693
  789
  890
  995
  1,106
  1,222
  1,343
  1,468
  1,599
  1,735
  1,877
  2,024
  2,177
  2,336
  2,502
  2,674
  2,854
  3,041
  3,236
  3,439
  3,651
  3,872
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  37
  47
  57
  69
  81
  95
  110
  126
  143
  161
  180
  200
  221
  243
  266
  290
  314
  340
  367
  395
  424
  454
  485
  517
  551
  586
  623
  661
  701
  742
Earnings before tax, $m
  -95
  -32
  -12
  10
  34
  60
  89
  120
  153
  187
  224
  263
  304
  346
  391
  437
  485
  536
  588
  643
  699
  758
  820
  884
  951
  1,020
  1,093
  1,168
  1,247
  1,330
  1,416
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  3
  9
  16
  24
  32
  41
  51
  61
  71
  82
  93
  105
  118
  131
  145
  159
  173
  189
  205
  221
  239
  257
  275
  295
  315
  337
  359
  382
Net income, $m
  -95
  -32
  -12
  7
  25
  44
  65
  87
  111
  137
  164
  192
  222
  253
  285
  319
  354
  391
  429
  469
  510
  554
  598
  645
  694
  745
  798
  853
  911
  971
  1,034

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,186
  1,341
  1,606
  1,899
  2,221
  2,572
  2,949
  3,354
  3,784
  4,241
  4,722
  5,228
  5,759
  6,314
  6,892
  7,496
  8,124
  8,777
  9,455
  10,161
  10,894
  11,656
  12,448
  13,271
  14,128
  15,019
  15,947
  16,913
  17,920
  18,970
  20,065
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,165
  1,341
  1,606
  1,899
  2,221
  2,572
  2,949
  3,354
  3,784
  4,241
  4,722
  5,228
  5,759
  6,314
  6,892
  7,496
  8,124
  8,777
  9,455
  10,161
  10,894
  11,656
  12,448
  13,271
  14,128
  15,019
  15,947
  16,913
  17,920
  18,970
  20,065
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.471
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
Average production assets, $m
  995
  1,145
  1,371
  1,622
  1,897
  2,196
  2,518
  2,863
  3,231
  3,621
  4,032
  4,464
  4,917
  5,391
  5,885
  6,400
  6,936
  7,494
  8,074
  8,676
  9,302
  9,953
  10,629
  11,332
  12,063
  12,824
  13,616
  14,441
  15,301
  16,198
  17,133
Working capital, $m
  21
  -70
  -84
  -100
  -117
  -135
  -155
  -176
  -199
  -222
  -248
  -274
  -302
  -331
  -362
  -393
  -426
  -460
  -496
  -533
  -572
  -611
  -653
  -696
  -741
  -788
  -837
  -887
  -940
  -995
  -1,053
Total debt, $m
  548
  649
  794
  955
  1,132
  1,324
  1,530
  1,752
  1,988
  2,238
  2,502
  2,779
  3,070
  3,374
  3,691
  4,022
  4,366
  4,724
  5,096
  5,483
  5,884
  6,302
  6,736
  7,187
  7,656
  8,145
  8,653
  9,183
  9,735
  10,310
  10,910
Total liabilities, $m
  622
  735
  880
  1,041
  1,217
  1,409
  1,616
  1,838
  2,074
  2,324
  2,588
  2,865
  3,156
  3,460
  3,777
  4,108
  4,452
  4,810
  5,182
  5,568
  5,970
  6,388
  6,822
  7,273
  7,742
  8,231
  8,739
  9,268
  9,820
  10,396
  10,996
Total equity, $m
  564
  606
  726
  859
  1,004
  1,162
  1,333
  1,516
  1,711
  1,917
  2,134
  2,363
  2,603
  2,854
  3,115
  3,388
  3,672
  3,967
  4,274
  4,593
  4,924
  5,269
  5,627
  5,999
  6,386
  6,789
  7,208
  7,645
  8,100
  8,574
  9,069
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,186
  1,341
  1,606
  1,900
  2,221
  2,571
  2,949
  3,354
  3,785
  4,241
  4,722
  5,228
  5,759
  6,314
  6,892
  7,496
  8,124
  8,777
  9,456
  10,161
  10,894
  11,657
  12,449
  13,272
  14,128
  15,020
  15,947
  16,913
  17,920
  18,970
  20,065
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.972
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
  1.140
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.466
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -95
  -32
  -12
  7
  25
  44
  65
  87
  111
  137
  164
  192
  222
  253
  285
  319
  354
  391
  429
  469
  510
  554
  598
  645
  694
  745
  798
  853
  911
  971
  1,034
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  107
  114
  137
  162
  190
  220
  252
  286
  323
  362
  403
  446
  492
  539
  589
  640
  694
  749
  807
  868
  930
  995
  1,063
  1,133
  1,206
  1,282
  1,362
  1,444
  1,530
  1,620
  1,713
Funds from operations, $m
  74
  83
  125
  169
  215
  264
  317
  374
  435
  499
  567
  638
  713
  792
  874
  959
  1,048
  1,140
  1,237
  1,337
  1,441
  1,549
  1,661
  1,778
  1,900
  2,027
  2,159
  2,297
  2,441
  2,591
  2,747
Change in working capital, $m
  23
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
Cash from operations, $m
  51
  95
  139
  185
  231
  282
  337
  395
  457
  523
  592
  665
  741
  821
  904
  991
  1,081
  1,175
  1,272
  1,374
  1,479
  1,589
  1,703
  1,822
  1,945
  2,074
  2,208
  2,348
  2,494
  2,646
  2,804
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -94
  -114
  -137
  -162
  -190
  -220
  -252
  -286
  -323
  -362
  -403
  -446
  -492
  -539
  -589
  -640
  -694
  -749
  -807
  -868
  -930
  -995
  -1,063
  -1,133
  -1,206
  -1,282
  -1,362
  -1,444
  -1,530
  -1,620
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -202
  -226
  -251
  -275
  -299
  -322
  -345
  -368
  -390
  -411
  -432
  -453
  -474
  -494
  -515
  -536
  -558
  -580
  -602
  -626
  -651
  -676
  -703
  -731
  -761
  -792
  -825
  -860
  -896
  -935
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -9
  -296
  -340
  -388
  -437
  -489
  -542
  -597
  -654
  -713
  -773
  -835
  -899
  -966
  -1,033
  -1,104
  -1,176
  -1,252
  -1,329
  -1,409
  -1,494
  -1,581
  -1,671
  -1,766
  -1,864
  -1,967
  -2,074
  -2,187
  -2,304
  -2,426
  -2,555
Free cash flow, $m
  42
  -201
  -202
  -203
  -206
  -207
  -205
  -202
  -197
  -190
  -181
  -170
  -158
  -145
  -129
  -113
  -95
  -77
  -57
  -36
  -14
  8
  31
  56
  81
  107
  133
  161
  190
  219
  250
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -64
  131
  145
  161
  176
  192
  207
  222
  236
  250
  264
  277
  291
  304
  317
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  530
  552
  575
  600
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  138
  132
  126
  121
  114
  106
  95
  83
  69
  54
  37
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -32
  269
  277
  287
  297
  306
  313
  317
  319
  319
  318
  314
  309
  304
  317
  331
  344
  358
  372
  387
  402
  418
  434
  451
  469
  488
  508
  530
  552
  575
  600
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  67
  75
  83
  91
  99
  107
  115
  122
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  188
  218
  249
  281
  315
  351
  387
  426
  465
  507
  550
  595
  642
  691
  741
  794
  850
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  57
  -138
  -132
  -133
  -146
  -158
  -171
  -183
  -195
  -206
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -295
  -307
  -319
  -331
  -344
  -358
  -372
  -387
  -403
  -419
  -437
  -455
  -475
  -495
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -70
  -57
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -91
  -74
  -55
  -35
  -14
  8
  32
  56
  81
  107
  135
  163
  192
  222
  254
  286
  320
  355
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -65
  -47
  -37
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -22
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -8
  -5
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  71.8
  54.8
  43.9
  36.6
  31.5
  27.8
  25.3
  23.4
  22.1
  21.3
  20.8
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5
  20.5

Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. provides natural gas gathering, processing, treating, compression and transportation services and natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and transportation services. The Company also sources, purchases, transports and sells natural gas and NGLs. Its assets are located in South Texas, Mississippi and Alabama As of December 31, 2016, its assets consisted of gathering systems, intrastate pipelines, two natural gas processing plants, one fractionation facility, 20 compressor stations and a treating system. Its gathering systems and intrastate pipelines include South Texas and Mississippi/Alabama. The assets in its South Texas region are located between Montgomery County, which is north of Houston, and Webb and Dimmit Counties near the Texas-Mexico border. The assets in its Mississippi region are located principally in the southern half of the state and consist of intrastate pipeline system in Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southcross Energy Partners (SXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.3
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 4.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -76.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 96.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -16%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Net Profit Margin -17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $666 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southcross Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Southcross Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for SXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southcross Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southcross Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $155 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Southcross Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southcross Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SXE stock is equal to 0.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SXE are equal to 141.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southcross Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SXE is equal to -8.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $500 million for Southcross Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 61 million for Southcross Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southcross Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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Financial statements of SXE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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