Intrinsic value of Symantec - SYMC

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$28.53

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SYMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 17.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,019
  3,672
  3,756
  3,853
  3,961
  4,081
  4,213
  4,357
  4,512
  4,679
  4,859
  5,051
  5,256
  5,474
  5,706
  5,953
  6,213
  6,489
  6,781
  7,090
  7,416
  7,760
  8,122
  8,504
  8,907
  9,331
  9,777
  10,247
  10,742
  11,262
  11,809
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,522
  3,596
  3,681
  3,775
  3,880
  3,995
  4,121
  4,256
  4,403
  4,559
  4,412
  4,591
  4,782
  4,985
  5,200
  5,428
  5,669
  5,924
  6,194
  6,478
  6,778
  7,095
  7,429
  7,781
  8,151
  8,541
  8,951
  9,383
  9,838
  10,316
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,119
  3,522
  3,596
  3,681
  3,775
  3,880
  3,995
  4,121
  4,256
  4,403
  4,559
  4,412
  4,591
  4,782
  4,985
  5,200
  5,428
  5,669
  5,924
  6,194
  6,478
  6,778
  7,095
  7,429
  7,781
  8,151
  8,541
  8,951
  9,383
  9,838
  10,316
Operating income, $m
  -100
  150
  160
  172
  186
  201
  218
  236
  256
  277
  300
  639
  665
  692
  722
  753
  786
  821
  857
  896
  938
  981
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,180
  1,236
  1,296
  1,358
  1,424
  1,493
EBITDA, $m
  430
  536
  548
  562
  578
  596
  615
  636
  658
  683
  709
  737
  767
  799
  833
  869
  907
  947
  990
  1,035
  1,082
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,427
  1,495
  1,568
  1,643
  1,723
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  77
  -21
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -1
  6
  13
  21
  29
  38
  48
  58
  69
  81
  93
  106
  120
  135
  150
  167
  184
  202
  221
  242
  263
  285
  309
  334
  360
Earnings before tax, $m
  -262
  72
  182
  190
  198
  208
  219
  230
  243
  256
  270
  601
  617
  634
  652
  672
  693
  714
  737
  762
  787
  815
  843
  873
  905
  938
  973
  1,010
  1,049
  1,090
  1,133
Tax expense, $m
  -26
  20
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  162
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  244
  253
  263
  273
  283
  294
  306
Net income, $m
  -106
  53
  133
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  438
  450
  463
  476
  491
  506
  521
  538
  556
  575
  595
  615
  637
  661
  685
  711
  738
  766
  796
  827

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4,247
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  18,174
  5,856
  5,991
  6,145
  6,318
  6,510
  6,720
  6,949
  7,196
  7,463
  7,750
  8,056
  8,383
  8,731
  9,101
  9,494
  9,910
  10,350
  10,816
  11,308
  11,827
  12,376
  12,954
  13,563
  14,205
  14,882
  15,594
  16,343
  17,132
  17,961
  18,834
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  13,927
  5,856
  5,991
  6,145
  6,318
  6,510
  6,720
  6,949
  7,196
  7,463
  7,750
  8,056
  8,383
  8,731
  9,101
  9,494
  9,910
  10,350
  10,816
  11,308
  11,827
  12,376
  12,954
  13,563
  14,205
  14,882
  15,594
  16,343
  17,132
  17,961
  18,834
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.289
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
  0.627
Average production assets, $m
  2,671
  980
  1,003
  1,029
  1,058
  1,090
  1,125
  1,163
  1,205
  1,249
  1,297
  1,349
  1,403
  1,462
  1,524
  1,589
  1,659
  1,733
  1,811
  1,893
  1,980
  2,072
  2,169
  2,271
  2,378
  2,491
  2,611
  2,736
  2,868
  3,007
  3,153
Working capital, $m
  702
  -3,162
  -3,234
  -3,317
  -3,411
  -3,514
  -3,628
  -3,751
  -3,885
  -4,029
  -4,184
  -4,349
  -4,526
  -4,713
  -4,913
  -5,125
  -5,350
  -5,587
  -5,839
  -6,105
  -6,385
  -6,681
  -6,993
  -7,322
  -7,669
  -8,034
  -8,418
  -8,823
  -9,249
  -9,696
  -10,168
Total debt, $m
  8,186
  -613
  -492
  -353
  -198
  -25
  164
  370
  593
  833
  1,091
  1,366
  1,661
  1,974
  2,307
  2,660
  3,035
  3,431
  3,850
  4,293
  4,761
  5,254
  5,774
  6,323
  6,901
  7,509
  8,150
  8,825
  9,535
  10,281
  11,067
Total liabilities, $m
  14,687
  5,271
  5,392
  5,531
  5,686
  5,859
  6,048
  6,254
  6,477
  6,717
  6,975
  7,250
  7,545
  7,858
  8,191
  8,544
  8,919
  9,315
  9,734
  10,177
  10,645
  11,138
  11,658
  12,207
  12,785
  13,393
  14,034
  14,709
  15,419
  16,165
  16,951
Total equity, $m
  3,487
  586
  599
  615
  632
  651
  672
  695
  720
  746
  775
  806
  838
  873
  910
  949
  991
  1,035
  1,082
  1,131
  1,183
  1,238
  1,295
  1,356
  1,421
  1,488
  1,559
  1,634
  1,713
  1,796
  1,883
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  18,174
  5,857
  5,991
  6,146
  6,318
  6,510
  6,720
  6,949
  7,197
  7,463
  7,750
  8,056
  8,383
  8,731
  9,101
  9,493
  9,910
  10,350
  10,816
  11,308
  11,828
  12,376
  12,953
  13,563
  14,206
  14,881
  15,593
  16,343
  17,132
  17,961
  18,834
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.348
  -1.050
  -0.820
  -0.580
  -0.310
  -0.040
  0.240
  0.530
  0.820
  1.120
  1.410
  1.700
  1.980
  2.260
  2.530
  2.800
  3.060
  3.320
  3.560
  3.800
  4.030
  4.250
  4.460
  4.660
  4.860
  5.050
  5.230
  5.400
  5.570
  5.720
  5.880
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.055
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -106
  53
  133
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  177
  187
  197
  438
  450
  463
  476
  491
  506
  521
  538
  556
  575
  595
  615
  637
  661
  685
  711
  738
  766
  796
  827
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  530
  386
  388
  390
  392
  394
  397
  400
  403
  406
  409
  98
  102
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
Funds from operations, $m
  -974
  439
  521
  528
  537
  546
  557
  568
  580
  593
  607
  537
  553
  570
  587
  607
  627
  648
  670
  694
  719
  746
  774
  803
  834
  867
  901
  937
  975
  1,015
  1,057
Change in working capital, $m
  -754
  -62
  -73
  -83
  -93
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -165
  -177
  -188
  -200
  -212
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -266
  -280
  -296
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -365
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -448
  -471
Cash from operations, $m
  -220
  939
  593
  611
  630
  650
  670
  691
  714
  737
  762
  702
  729
  758
  787
  818
  851
  886
  922
  960
  1,000
  1,042
  1,086
  1,132
  1,181
  1,232
  1,286
  1,342
  1,401
  1,463
  1,529
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -70
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -80
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
New CAPEX, $m
  -70
  -18
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -146
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6,766
  -88
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -273
  -287
  -301
  -316
  -332
  -348
  -365
Free cash flow, $m
  -6,986
  850
  499
  512
  526
  540
  555
  571
  587
  604
  622
  556
  576
  597
  619
  642
  666
  691
  717
  745
  775
  805
  838
  872
  908
  945
  985
  1,026
  1,069
  1,115
  1,163
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5,962
  -2,820
  121
  139
  156
  172
  189
  206
  223
  240
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  353
  374
  396
  419
  443
  468
  493
  520
  548
  578
  609
  641
  675
  710
  747
  785
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -405
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  5,513
  -2,820
  121
  139
  156
  172
  189
  206
  223
  240
  258
  276
  294
  313
  333
  353
  374
  396
  419
  443
  468
  493
  520
  548
  578
  609
  641
  675
  710
  747
  785
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1,514
  -1,970
  620
  651
  682
  713
  745
  777
  810
  845
  880
  832
  870
  910
  952
  995
  1,040
  1,087
  1,137
  1,188
  1,242
  1,299
  1,358
  1,420
  1,485
  1,554
  1,625
  1,700
  1,779
  1,862
  1,948
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  189
  -2,935
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6,025
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,121
  607
  636
  664
  694
  724
  754
  786
  818
  852
  801
  838
  875
  915
  956
  998
  1,043
  1,090
  1,139
  1,190
  1,244
  1,300
  1,359
  1,421
  1,486
  1,554
  1,625
  1,700
  1,779
  1,861
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,074
  556
  553
  547
  538
  525
  509
  491
  470
  446
  381
  357
  333
  307
  281
  254
  227
  201
  175
  151
  129
  108
  89
  72
  58
  45
  35
  26
  19
  14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Symantec Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides cybersecurity solutions worldwide. It operates through two segments, Consumer Security and Enterprise Security. The Consumer Security segment offers Norton-branded services that provide multi-layer security and identity protection on desktop and mobile operating systems to defend against online threats to individuals, families, and small businesses. Its Norton Security products help customers protect against complex threats and address the need for identity protection, while also managing mobile and digital data, such as personal financial records, photos, music, and videos. The Enterprise Security segment provides threat protection products, information protection products, cyber security services, and Website security offerings. Its products protect customer data from threats, such as advanced protection threats, malicious spam and phishing attacks, malware, drive-by Website infections, hackers, and cyber criminals; prevent the loss of confidential data by insiders; and help customers achieve and maintain compliance with laws and regulations. This segment delivers its solutions through various methods, such as software, appliance, software-as-a-service, and managed services. The company serves individuals, households, and small businesses; small, medium, and large enterprises; and government and public sector customers. It markets and sells its products and related services through direct sales force, e-commerce platforms, distributors, direct marketers, Internet-based resellers, system builders, Internet service providers, wireless carriers, retailers, original equipment manufacturers, and retail and online stores. Symantec Corporation was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Symantec (SYMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -163.6
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -78.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -59.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -74.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 197.2%
Total Debt to Equity 234.8%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital -1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity -3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin -2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin -2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Effective Tax Rate 9.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 103.8%
Payout Ratio -209.4%

SYMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SYMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3600 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Symantec. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Symantec. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SYMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SYMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Symantec, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Symantec.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SYMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SYMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Symantec.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Symantec. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SYMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SYMC are equal to 26.7%.

Life of production assets of 13.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Symantec operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SYMC is equal to -86.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3676 million for Symantec - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 616.363 million for Symantec is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Symantec at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $17.6 billion.


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Stock chart of SYMC Financial statements of SYMC Annual reports of SYMC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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