Intrinsic value of Synaptics - SYNA

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$50.76

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$50.76

 
Intrinsic value

$57.20

 
Up/down potential

+13%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SYNA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -2.11
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,667
  1,700
  1,739
  1,784
  1,834
  1,890
  1,951
  2,017
  2,089
  2,167
  2,250
  2,339
  2,434
  2,535
  2,642
  2,756
  2,877
  3,005
  3,140
  3,283
  3,434
  3,593
  3,761
  3,938
  4,124
  4,321
  4,527
  4,745
  4,974
  5,215
  5,468
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,538
  1,573
  1,613
  1,658
  1,708
  1,762
  1,821
  1,886
  1,955
  2,029
  2,088
  2,172
  2,263
  2,359
  2,460
  2,568
  2,682
  2,803
  2,930
  3,065
  3,207
  3,357
  3,515
  3,681
  3,857
  4,041
  4,235
  4,440
  4,655
  4,881
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,590
  1,538
  1,573
  1,613
  1,658
  1,708
  1,762
  1,821
  1,886
  1,955
  2,029
  2,088
  2,172
  2,263
  2,359
  2,460
  2,568
  2,682
  2,803
  2,930
  3,065
  3,207
  3,357
  3,515
  3,681
  3,857
  4,041
  4,235
  4,440
  4,655
  4,881
Operating income, $m
  77
  162
  166
  171
  176
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  353
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  534
  560
  587
EBITDA, $m
  181
  247
  253
  259
  267
  275
  284
  293
  304
  315
  327
  340
  354
  369
  384
  401
  418
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  547
  573
  600
  628
  658
  690
  723
  758
  795
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  8
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  76
  154
  158
  162
  167
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  237
  246
  255
  266
  277
  288
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  467
  489
  513
  537
Tax expense, $m
  4
  42
  43
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
Net income, $m
  72
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  352
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,300
  967
  989
  1,015
  1,043
  1,075
  1,110
  1,148
  1,188
  1,233
  1,280
  1,330
  1,384
  1,442
  1,503
  1,568
  1,637
  1,709
  1,786
  1,868
  1,953
  2,044
  2,139
  2,240
  2,346
  2,458
  2,575
  2,699
  2,829
  2,966
  3,110
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  948
  967
  989
  1,015
  1,043
  1,075
  1,110
  1,148
  1,188
  1,233
  1,280
  1,330
  1,384
  1,442
  1,503
  1,568
  1,637
  1,709
  1,786
  1,868
  1,953
  2,044
  2,139
  2,240
  2,346
  2,458
  2,575
  2,699
  2,829
  2,966
  3,110
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.757
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.759
  1.759
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.757
  1.758
  1.758
  1.757
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
  1.758
Average production assets, $m
  316
  323
  330
  339
  349
  359
  371
  383
  397
  412
  427
  444
  462
  482
  502
  524
  547
  571
  597
  624
  652
  683
  715
  748
  784
  821
  860
  902
  945
  991
  1,039
Working capital, $m
  429
  99
  101
  103
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  126
  130
  136
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  218
  228
  239
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  317
Total debt, $m
  236
  229
  243
  258
  275
  295
  316
  339
  364
  390
  419
  450
  483
  518
  555
  594
  636
  680
  727
  776
  829
  884
  942
  1,003
  1,067
  1,135
  1,207
  1,282
  1,361
  1,445
  1,532
Total liabilities, $m
  595
  588
  602
  617
  634
  654
  675
  698
  723
  749
  778
  809
  842
  877
  914
  953
  995
  1,039
  1,086
  1,135
  1,188
  1,243
  1,301
  1,362
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,641
  1,720
  1,804
  1,891
Total equity, $m
  705
  379
  388
  398
  409
  421
  435
  450
  466
  483
  502
  522
  543
  565
  589
  615
  642
  670
  700
  732
  766
  801
  839
  878
  920
  963
  1,010
  1,058
  1,109
  1,163
  1,219
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,300
  967
  990
  1,015
  1,043
  1,075
  1,110
  1,148
  1,189
  1,232
  1,280
  1,331
  1,385
  1,442
  1,503
  1,568
  1,637
  1,709
  1,786
  1,867
  1,954
  2,044
  2,140
  2,240
  2,346
  2,457
  2,576
  2,699
  2,829
  2,967
  3,110
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.335
  0.600
  0.630
  0.650
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.750
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
  1.060
  1.080
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.230
  1.240
  1.260
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.372
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392
  0.392

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  72
  113
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  173
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  229
  239
  249
  261
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  392
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  104
  85
  87
  88
  90
  93
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
Funds from operations, $m
  287
  198
  202
  207
  213
  219
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  262
  272
  283
  294
  307
  320
  334
  348
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  455
  476
  498
  522
  546
  572
  600
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Cash from operations, $m
  257
  153
  200
  204
  210
  215
  222
  229
  236
  244
  253
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  406
  424
  444
  464
  486
  509
  533
  558
  585
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -27
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -160
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -246
Free cash flow, $m
  230
  83
  128
  130
  132
  135
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  270
  283
  296
  309
  324
  339
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -8
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -208
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -281
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -48
  95
  141
  145
  150
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  183
  185
  192
  200
  209
  217
  227
  237
  247
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  388
  407
  426
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  88
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  333
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  421
  133
  135
  138
  142
  146
  150
  155
  159
  165
  165
  171
  178
  185
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  403
  122
  118
  114
  110
  106
  101
  97
  92
  86
  78
  73
  68
  62
  56
  51
  45
  40
  35
  30
  26
  21
  18
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Synaptics Incorporated develops, markets, and sells intuitive human interface solutions for electronic devices and products worldwide. The company offers its human interface products solutions for mobile product applications, including smartphones, tablets, and touchscreen applications, as well as mobile, handheld, wireless, and entertainment devices; notebook applications; and other personal computer (PC) product applications, such as peripherals comprising keyboards, mice, and monitors, as well as desktop product applications. Its products include ClearPad, which enables users to interact directly with the display on smartphones and tablets; ClearView products that provide advanced image processing and low power technology for entry-level smartphones; TouchView products, which integrate touch and display technologies to deliver performance and simplified design; and Natural ID, a fingerprint ID product that is used in smartphones, tablets, notebook PCs, PC peripherals, and other applications. The company’s products also comprise TouchPad, a touch-sensitive pad that senses the position and movement of one or more fingers on its surface; SecurePad that integrates fingerprint sensor directly into the TouchPad area; ClickPad that offers a clickable mechanical design to the TouchPad application; and ForcePad, a thinner version of its ClickPad. Further, its other product solutions include dual pointing solutions, which offer TouchPad with a pointing stick in a single notebook computer enabling users to select their interface of choice; TouchStyk, a self-contained pointing stick module; and TouchButtons, which provide capacitive buttons and scrolling controls. The company sells its products through direct sales, outside sales representatives, and distributors. It serves smartphone, tablet, and PC original equipment manufacturers, as well as various consumer electronics manufacturers. The company was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Synaptics (SYNA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24.8
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7
Price to Free Cash Flow 8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -36.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 19
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.8%
Total Debt to Equity 33.5%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 34.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.3%
EBITDA Margin 11.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Operating Margin 4.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 5.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SYNA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SYNA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1667 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Synaptics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Synaptics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SYNA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SYNA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Synaptics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Synaptics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SYNA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SYNA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Synaptics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Synaptics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SYNA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SYNA are equal to 19%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Synaptics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SYNA is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $705 million for Synaptics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.144 million for Synaptics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Synaptics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.


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▶ The Odd Reason Synaptics Stock Plunged 8% Tuesday   [Mar-22-17 01:55PM  at Investopedia]
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▶ Lenovo Gets Even More Mobile At MWC 2017   [Feb-28-17 10:14AM  at Forbes]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Synaptics, Inc. : February 2, 2017   [Feb-02-17 02:53PM  Capital Cube]
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▶ Synaptics FYQ2 Beats, Q3 Rev View Tops Consensus   [Jan-26-17 04:43PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Synaptics Unveils a New Level of Mobile Security   [Jan-04-17 02:46PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Synaptics, Incorporated Talks OLED Versus LCD Tech   [Dec-22-16 04:46PM  at Motley Fool]
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▶ Synaptics Drops 8% on Samsung News; Oversold, Says Cowen   [Nov-08-16 11:31AM  at Barrons.com]
▶ *** DATA NOT AVAILABLE ***   [04:55AM  at noodls]
▶ Why Shares of Synaptics Inc. Plunged Today   [01:02PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Synaptics misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Oct-27-16 04:53PM  AP]
▶ [$$] IPhone Overhang at Synaptics   [Oct-10-16 03:02PM  at Barrons.com]
Stock chart of SYNA Financial statements of SYNA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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