Intrinsic value of Systemax - SYX

Previous Close

$22.65

  Intrinsic Value

$1.46

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

  Value-price divergence*

-5%

Previous close

$22.65

 
Intrinsic value

$1.46

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-5%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SYX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.43
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  1,680
  1,774
  1,872
  1,975
  2,082
  2,195
  2,312
  2,435
  2,564
  2,699
  2,840
  2,988
  3,143
  3,306
  3,476
  3,654
  3,842
  4,038
  4,244
  4,460
  4,687
  4,924
  5,174
  5,436
  5,710
  5,998
  6,301
  6,618
  6,952
  7,301
  7,669
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,797
  1,897
  2,001
  2,110
  2,223
  2,342
  2,467
  2,597
  2,734
  2,877
  3,027
  3,184
  3,349
  3,521
  3,702
  3,892
  4,091
  4,299
  4,518
  4,748
  4,988
  5,241
  5,506
  5,784
  6,076
  6,383
  6,705
  7,042
  7,396
  7,768
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,676
  1,797
  1,897
  2,001
  2,110
  2,223
  2,342
  2,467
  2,597
  2,734
  2,877
  3,027
  3,184
  3,349
  3,521
  3,702
  3,892
  4,091
  4,299
  4,518
  4,748
  4,988
  5,241
  5,506
  5,784
  6,076
  6,383
  6,705
  7,042
  7,396
  7,768
Operating income, $m
  4
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
EBITDA, $m
  12
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
Tax expense, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -33
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  150
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  566
  439
  464
  489
  516
  544
  573
  603
  635
  668
  703
  740
  778
  819
  861
  905
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,220
  1,281
  1,346
  1,414
  1,486
  1,560
  1,639
  1,722
  1,808
  1,899
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  416
  439
  464
  489
  516
  544
  573
  603
  635
  668
  703
  740
  778
  819
  861
  905
  951
  1,000
  1,051
  1,105
  1,161
  1,220
  1,281
  1,346
  1,414
  1,486
  1,560
  1,639
  1,722
  1,808
  1,899
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.038
  4.041
  4.034
  4.039
  4.035
  4.035
  4.035
  4.038
  4.038
  4.040
  4.040
  4.038
  4.040
  4.037
  4.037
  4.038
  4.040
  4.038
  4.038
  4.036
  4.037
  4.036
  4.039
  4.039
  4.038
  4.036
  4.039
  4.038
  4.037
  4.038
  4.038
Average production assets, $m
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  169
  177
  186
  195
  205
  216
  226
  238
Working capital, $m
  186
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
Total debt, $m
  0
  20
  40
  62
  84
  108
  132
  158
  185
  213
  243
  274
  307
  341
  376
  414
  453
  494
  537
  582
  630
  680
  732
  787
  844
  905
  968
  1,035
  1,104
  1,178
  1,255
Total liabilities, $m
  352
  372
  392
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
  537
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  728
  766
  805
  846
  889
  934
  982
  1,032
  1,084
  1,139
  1,196
  1,257
  1,320
  1,387
  1,456
  1,530
  1,607
Total equity, $m
  214
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  139
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  240
  252
  265
  278
  292
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  566
  440
  463
  489
  515
  544
  572
  603
  635
  668
  703
  740
  779
  819
  861
  905
  952
  1,000
  1,051
  1,104
  1,161
  1,220
  1,281
  1,346
  1,414
  1,486
  1,560
  1,639
  1,721
  1,808
  1,899
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.290
  0.560
  0.820
  1.060
  1.290
  1.500
  1.700
  1.890
  2.070
  2.240
  2.400
  2.560
  2.700
  2.840
  2.970
  3.090
  3.210
  3.320
  3.420
  3.520
  3.620
  3.710
  3.800
  3.880
  3.950
  4.030
  4.100
  4.170
  4.230
  4.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154
  0.154

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -33
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  -99
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  -57
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Free cash flow, $m
  -60
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  20
  21
  22
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  67
  70
  73
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  67
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  47
  50
  53
  55
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  88
  94
  100
  104
  111
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  188
  199
  209
  220
  232
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -61
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  40
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  150
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.3
  81.5
  73.3
  65.9
  59.1
  52.9
  47.2
  42.2
  37.6
  33.4
  29.7
  26.4
  23.4
  20.7
  18.3
  16.2
  14.3
  12.6
  11.1
  9.8
  8.6
  7.6
  6.7
  5.9
  5.1
  4.5
  3.9
  3.5
  3.0
  2.7

Systemax Inc. operates as a direct marketer of brand name and private label products. Its Industrial Products Group segment sells a range of maintenance, repair, and operation products, including electrical and bulbs; fasteners and hardware; foodservice and appliances; furniture and office products; HVAC/R fans; janitorial and maintenance; material handling; medical and laboratory equipment; metalworking and cutting tools; motors and power transmission products; office and school supplies; outdoor and grounds maintenance products; packaging and supplies; plumbing supplies; pneumatics and hydraulics; raw materials and building supplies; safety and security products; storage and shelving products; tools and instruments; and vehicle maintenance, and workbench and shop desks in North America. The company’s EMEA Technology Products Group segment sells information and communication technology products, such as computers and mobile devices; computer parts and memory products; servers, and storage and backup products; computer components and accessories; networking and security products; software products; and electronics, and commercial and home networking products. This segment also offers consumer electronics comprising TV and video, audio, and GPS products; cameras and surveillance products; cell phones; video games and toys; and home and electronics accessories. The company offers its products to for-profit businesses, educational organizations, and government entities through its relationship marketers, catalog mailings, and proprietary Internet Websites. Systemax Inc. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Port Washington, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Systemax (SYX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -25.3
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -72.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -26.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.3%
Return On Total Capital -14.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.8%
Return On Equity -14.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -18.9%
Asset Turnover 2.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 19.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
EBITDA Margin 0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.9%
Net Profit Margin -2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Effective Tax Rate 500%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 134.3%
Payout Ratio -12.1%

SYX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SYX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1680 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Systemax. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Systemax. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SYX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SYX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Systemax, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Systemax.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SYX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 101.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SYX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Systemax.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Systemax. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SYX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SYX are equal to 3.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Systemax operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SYX is equal to 2.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $214 million for Systemax - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.915 million for Systemax is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Systemax at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Systemax posts 2Q profit   [Aug-01-17 06:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Systemax, Inc. : July 4, 2017   [Jul-04-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Systemax, Inc. : June 22, 2017   [Jun-22-17 04:28PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Systemax Stock Surged Today   [May-05-17 01:22PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Systemax reports 1Q loss   [05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Systemax Reports First Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [May-04-17 04:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Systemax reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-17 06:59PM  Associated Press]
▶ Vapor Corp. Announces Appointment of New CFO   [Dec-15-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Systemax reports 3Q loss   [04:39PM  AP]
▶ Systemax reports 2Q loss   [07:23PM  AP]
▶ Systemax reports 4Q loss   [05:41PM  AP]
Stock chart of SYX Financial statements of SYX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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