Intrinsic value of TravelCenters of America - TA

Previous Close

$4.85

  Intrinsic Value

$18.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+286%

  Value-price divergence*

+111%

Previous close

$4.85

 
Intrinsic value

$18.73

 
Up/down potential

+286%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+111%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -5.81
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
  4.99
Revenue, $m
  5,511
  5,776
  6,054
  6,347
  6,655
  6,979
  7,320
  7,678
  8,054
  8,450
  8,866
  9,303
  9,763
  10,245
  10,752
  11,285
  11,844
  12,432
  13,050
  13,698
  14,380
  15,095
  15,846
  16,636
  17,465
  18,335
  19,249
  20,209
  21,217
  22,276
  23,387
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  5,030
  5,272
  5,527
  5,795
  6,077
  6,374
  6,685
  7,013
  7,357
  7,719
  8,094
  8,494
  8,914
  9,355
  9,819
  10,306
  10,817
  11,354
  11,919
  12,511
  13,134
  13,788
  14,474
  15,195
  15,953
  16,748
  17,583
  18,461
  19,382
  20,349
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  729
  747
  766
  785
  804
  825
  845
  866
  888
  910
  933
  956
  980
  1,005
  1,030
  1,055
  1,082
  1,109
  1,137
  1,165
  1,194
  1,224
  1,255
  1,286
  1,318
  1,351
  1,385
  1,420
  1,455
  1,491
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,492
  5,759
  6,019
  6,293
  6,580
  6,881
  7,199
  7,530
  7,879
  8,245
  8,629
  9,027
  9,450
  9,894
  10,360
  10,849
  11,361
  11,899
  12,463
  13,056
  13,676
  14,328
  15,012
  15,729
  16,481
  17,271
  18,099
  18,968
  19,881
  20,837
  21,840
Operating income, $m
  20
  17
  34
  54
  75
  97
  121
  147
  175
  205
  237
  276
  312
  351
  392
  436
  483
  533
  587
  643
  703
  767
  835
  907
  983
  1,064
  1,150
  1,241
  1,337
  1,439
  1,547
EBITDA, $m
  112
  107
  129
  153
  178
  206
  235
  266
  299
  335
  373
  413
  457
  502
  551
  603
  659
  717
  780
  846
  916
  990
  1,069
  1,153
  1,241
  1,335
  1,435
  1,540
  1,651
  1,769
  1,893
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  56
  62
  68
  75
  82
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  163
  175
  187
  199
  213
  227
  241
  257
  273
  290
  308
  327
Earnings before tax, $m
  -4
  -13
  0
  14
  30
  47
  65
  85
  107
  130
  155
  187
  215
  246
  279
  314
  351
  391
  434
  480
  528
  580
  635
  694
  756
  823
  893
  968
  1,047
  1,131
  1,221
Tax expense, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  4
  8
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  42
  50
  58
  66
  75
  85
  95
  106
  117
  130
  143
  157
  172
  187
  204
  222
  241
  261
  283
  305
  330
Net income, $m
  -2
  -13
  0
  10
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  95
  113
  136
  157
  179
  203
  229
  256
  286
  317
  350
  386
  424
  464
  507
  552
  601
  652
  707
  764
  826
  891

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,660
  1,676
  1,756
  1,841
  1,931
  2,025
  2,123
  2,227
  2,337
  2,451
  2,572
  2,699
  2,832
  2,972
  3,119
  3,274
  3,436
  3,607
  3,786
  3,974
  4,172
  4,379
  4,597
  4,826
  5,067
  5,319
  5,584
  5,863
  6,155
  6,462
  6,785
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,599
  1,676
  1,756
  1,841
  1,931
  2,025
  2,123
  2,227
  2,337
  2,451
  2,572
  2,699
  2,832
  2,972
  3,119
  3,274
  3,436
  3,607
  3,786
  3,974
  4,172
  4,379
  4,597
  4,826
  5,067
  5,319
  5,584
  5,863
  6,155
  6,462
  6,785
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.447
  3.446
  3.448
  3.448
  3.446
  3.446
  3.448
  3.448
  3.446
  3.448
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
  3.447
Average production assets, $m
  579
  606
  636
  666
  699
  733
  769
  806
  846
  887
  931
  977
  1,025
  1,076
  1,129
  1,185
  1,244
  1,305
  1,370
  1,438
  1,510
  1,585
  1,664
  1,747
  1,834
  1,925
  2,021
  2,122
  2,228
  2,339
  2,456
Working capital, $m
  72
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
Total debt, $m
  340
  393
  449
  508
  570
  635
  704
  776
  851
  931
  1,014
  1,102
  1,195
  1,292
  1,394
  1,501
  1,613
  1,731
  1,856
  1,986
  2,123
  2,267
  2,418
  2,577
  2,743
  2,918
  3,102
  3,295
  3,498
  3,710
  3,934
Total liabilities, $m
  1,108
  1,161
  1,217
  1,276
  1,338
  1,403
  1,472
  1,544
  1,619
  1,699
  1,782
  1,870
  1,963
  2,060
  2,162
  2,269
  2,381
  2,499
  2,624
  2,754
  2,891
  3,035
  3,186
  3,345
  3,511
  3,686
  3,870
  4,063
  4,266
  4,478
  4,702
Total equity, $m
  552
  514
  539
  565
  593
  622
  652
  684
  717
  753
  790
  829
  869
  912
  958
  1,005
  1,055
  1,107
  1,162
  1,220
  1,281
  1,344
  1,411
  1,482
  1,555
  1,633
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
  1,984
  2,083
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,660
  1,675
  1,756
  1,841
  1,931
  2,025
  2,124
  2,228
  2,336
  2,452
  2,572
  2,699
  2,832
  2,972
  3,120
  3,274
  3,436
  3,606
  3,786
  3,974
  4,172
  4,379
  4,597
  4,827
  5,066
  5,319
  5,584
  5,863
  6,156
  6,462
  6,785
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.616
  0.760
  0.830
  0.900
  0.960
  1.020
  1.080
  1.130
  1.190
  1.240
  1.280
  1.330
  1.370
  1.420
  1.460
  1.490
  1.530
  1.560
  1.600
  1.630
  1.660
  1.690
  1.710
  1.740
  1.760
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.870
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -2
  -13
  0
  10
  22
  34
  48
  62
  78
  95
  113
  136
  157
  179
  203
  229
  256
  286
  317
  350
  386
  424
  464
  507
  552
  601
  652
  707
  764
  826
  891
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  136
  138
  144
  152
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
  258
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
Funds from operations, $m
  141
  77
  94
  109
  125
  143
  161
  181
  202
  225
  249
  274
  301
  331
  362
  396
  432
  470
  510
  553
  598
  647
  698
  753
  810
  872
  937
  1,005
  1,078
  1,155
  1,237
Change in working capital, $m
  30
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  111
  77
  94
  109
  125
  142
  160
  180
  201
  224
  248
  273
  301
  330
  361
  395
  431
  468
  509
  552
  597
  645
  697
  751
  809
  870
  935
  1,003
  1,076
  1,153
  1,235
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -258
  -271
  -285
  -299
  -314
  -329
New CAPEX, $m
  -330
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -220
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -237
  -249
  -261
  -275
  -288
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
Free cash flow, $m
  -109
  -33
  -21
  -11
  -1
  10
  21
  34
  48
  63
  80
  96
  115
  135
  157
  180
  205
  232
  260
  290
  323
  358
  395
  434
  476
  520
  568
  618
  671
  728
  789
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  37
  25
  16
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -1
  90
  81
  75
  68
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -111
  57
  60
  63
  66
  75
  90
  106
  124
  143
  163
  184
  207
  232
  259
  287
  317
  350
  384
  421
  460
  501
  546
  593
  642
  695
  751
  811
  874
  941
  1,012
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -37
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  61
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  81
  35
  37
  39
  46
  60
  75
  91
  108
  126
  145
  166
  189
  213
  240
  268
  297
  329
  363
  399
  438
  479
  522
  569
  618
  670
  725
  784
  847
  913
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  77
  31
  31
  30
  32
  38
  43
  47
  50
  52
  52
  51
  50
  48
  44
  41
  37
  32
  28
  24
  20
  16
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  90.3
  84.5
  81.1
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0
  80.0

TravelCenters of America LLC (TravelCenters) operates and franchises travel centers and convenience store and restaurant locations. The Company's segments include travel centers, convenience stores, and corporate and other. The Company offers a range of products and services, including diesel fuel and gasoline, as well as nonfuel products and services, such as truck repair and maintenance services, full service restaurants, quick service restaurants (QSRs), travel/convenience stores and various customer amenities. Its customers include trucking fleets and their drivers, independent truck drivers, highway and local motorists, and casual diners. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's business included 255 travel centers in 43 states in the United States primarily along the United States interstate highway system, and the province of Ontario, Canada. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's business included 233 convenience stores in 11 states in the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TravelCenters of America (TA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -95.8
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 61.6%
Total Debt to Equity 61.6%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Return On Total Capital -0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Equity -0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Asset Turnover 3.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin 0.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Pre-Tax Margin -0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin -0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Effective Tax Rate 50%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

TA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5511 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TravelCenters of America. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TravelCenters of America. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for TA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TravelCenters of America, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TravelCenters of America.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $711 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.8% for TravelCenters of America.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TravelCenters of America. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TA are equal to 10.5%.

Life of production assets of 7.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TravelCenters of America operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TA is equal to 0.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $552 million for TravelCenters of America - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.858 million for TravelCenters of America is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TravelCenters of America at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ QUAKER STEAK & LUBE introduces NEW DOUBLE-TAKE MEALS   [Oct-13-17 12:04PM  Business Wire]
▶ What Is TravelCenters of America LLCs (TA) Share Price Doing?   [Sep-06-17 07:26PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ TravelCenters reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 05:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ TravelCenters of America Launches Blog Back on the Road   [Aug-03-17 02:51PM  Business Wire]
▶ How Will Falling Gas Prices Impact Gas Station Sales?   [Jul-14-17 09:09AM  Market Realist]
▶ Why TravelCenters of America LLC Stock Got Crushed Today   [May-09-17 05:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ TravelCenters reports 1Q loss   [08:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Grand Opening: TA Hebron Opens Bob Evans Restaurant   [Apr-03-17 09:19AM  Business Wire]
▶ TravelCenters of America Announces 2017 Citizen Drivers   [Mar-24-17 02:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Stocks That Are Ridiculously Cheap Right Now   [Mar-20-17 04:22PM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of TA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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