Intrinsic value of Del Taco Restaurants - TACO

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$12.87

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$12.87

 
Intrinsic value

$13.85

 
Up/down potential

+8%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TACO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.60
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  452
  482
  513
  545
  579
  614
  650
  688
  728
  769
  813
  858
  905
  954
  1,006
  1,060
  1,116
  1,176
  1,237
  1,302
  1,370
  1,441
  1,516
  1,594
  1,676
  1,762
  1,852
  1,947
  2,046
  2,150
  2,259
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  433
  459
  486
  514
  543
  573
  605
  638
  672
  708
  714
  753
  794
  837
  882
  929
  978
  1,030
  1,084
  1,140
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,395
  1,466
  1,541
  1,620
  1,703
  1,789
  1,880
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  409
  433
  459
  486
  514
  543
  573
  605
  638
  672
  708
  714
  753
  794
  837
  882
  929
  978
  1,030
  1,084
  1,140
  1,200
  1,262
  1,327
  1,395
  1,466
  1,541
  1,620
  1,703
  1,789
  1,880
Operating income, $m
  43
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  187
  197
  208
  219
  230
  242
  254
  268
  281
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
EBITDA, $m
  66
  94
  100
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  380
  400
  420
  441
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  257
  269
  283
  297
  312
  327
Tax expense, $m
  15
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  88
Net income, $m
  21
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  727
  765
  814
  865
  919
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
  1,221
  1,290
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
  1,597
  1,682
  1,772
  1,866
  1,964
  2,067
  2,175
  2,288
  2,406
  2,530
  2,661
  2,797
  2,940
  3,090
  3,248
  3,413
  3,586
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  718
  765
  814
  865
  919
  974
  1,032
  1,093
  1,156
  1,221
  1,290
  1,362
  1,437
  1,515
  1,597
  1,682
  1,772
  1,866
  1,964
  2,067
  2,175
  2,288
  2,406
  2,530
  2,661
  2,797
  2,940
  3,090
  3,248
  3,413
  3,586
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.629
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
Average production assets, $m
  373
  398
  423
  450
  477
  506
  536
  568
  601
  635
  670
  708
  747
  787
  830
  874
  921
  970
  1,021
  1,074
  1,130
  1,189
  1,251
  1,315
  1,383
  1,454
  1,528
  1,606
  1,688
  1,774
  1,864
Working capital, $m
  -35
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -210
Total debt, $m
  175
  196
  220
  245
  271
  298
  326
  355
  385
  417
  451
  485
  522
  560
  599
  641
  684
  730
  778
  828
  880
  935
  992
  1,052
  1,115
  1,182
  1,251
  1,324
  1,400
  1,480
  1,564
Total liabilities, $m
  350
  371
  395
  420
  446
  473
  501
  530
  560
  592
  626
  660
  697
  735
  774
  816
  859
  905
  953
  1,003
  1,055
  1,110
  1,167
  1,227
  1,290
  1,357
  1,426
  1,499
  1,575
  1,655
  1,739
Total equity, $m
  377
  394
  419
  446
  473
  502
  532
  563
  595
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  822
  866
  913
  961
  1,012
  1,065
  1,120
  1,178
  1,239
  1,303
  1,370
  1,440
  1,514
  1,591
  1,672
  1,757
  1,847
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  727
  765
  814
  866
  919
  975
  1,033
  1,093
  1,155
  1,221
  1,290
  1,361
  1,437
  1,515
  1,596
  1,682
  1,772
  1,866
  1,965
  2,068
  2,175
  2,288
  2,406
  2,530
  2,660
  2,797
  2,940
  3,090
  3,247
  3,412
  3,586
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.464
  0.500
  0.520
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.513
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515
  0.515

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  21
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  94
  98
  104
  109
  115
  120
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Funds from operations, $m
  56
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
  248
  260
  273
  287
  301
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  58
  89
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  181
  191
  200
  210
  221
  232
  244
  256
  269
  282
  296
  311
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
New CAPEX, $m
  -47
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
Free cash flow, $m
  10
  52
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  81
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  75
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  234
  246
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  58
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  157
Discount rate, %
 
  5.60
  5.88
  6.17
  6.48
  6.81
  7.15
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.69
  9.12
  9.58
  10.06
  10.56
  11.09
  11.64
  12.22
  12.84
  13.48
  14.15
  14.86
  15.60
  16.38
  17.20
  18.06
  18.96
  19.91
  20.91
  21.95
  23.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  55
  38
  38
  37
  36
  35
  34
  32
  30
  28
  23
  21
  19
  17
  15
  13
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. develops, franchises, owns, and operates Del Taco quick-service Mexican-American restaurants in the United States. The company’s restaurants offer Mexican inspired and American classic dishes. As of January 25, 2017, it operated approximately 550 restaurants in 15 states. The company was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Lake Forest, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Del Taco Restaurants (TACO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 24
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 34.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 5
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 45.9%
Total Debt to Equity 46.4%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity 5.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.1%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.6%
EBITDA Margin 14.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Operating Margin 9.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.1%
Net Profit Margin 4.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 41.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

TACO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TACO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $452 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Del Taco Restaurants. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Del Taco Restaurants. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TACO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.6%, whose default value for TACO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Del Taco Restaurants, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Del Taco Restaurants.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TACO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TACO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Del Taco Restaurants.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Del Taco Restaurants. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TACO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TACO are equal to 82.5%.

Life of production assets of 30.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Del Taco Restaurants operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TACO is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $377 million for Del Taco Restaurants - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.442 million for Del Taco Restaurants is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Del Taco Restaurants at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Del Taco beats Street 1Q forecasts   [May-04-17 06:08PM  Associated Press]
▶ Retail And E-Commerce News And Stocks To Watch   [03:19PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Del Taco Looks Tasty   [Mar-24-17 05:33PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Del Taco Introduces Its Biggest Breakfast Burrito Ever   [Mar-20-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Mar-13-17 04:45PM  Motley Fool]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [04:45PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Del Taco misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:14AM  Associated Press]
▶ These are America's favorite fast food restaurants   [Mar-09-17 07:00AM  at CNBC]
▶ Del Taco Amps Up Expansion in Southeast   [Mar-07-17 04:15PM  Marketwired]
▶ Fast Food Trends Favor Burgers, Tacos   [Feb-10-17 05:26PM  at Investopedia]
▶ Moes vs Chipotle vs Qdoba & Others: Where People Are Eating?   [Jan-24-17 12:24PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Del Taco Restaurants Inc. Shares Soared 35% Last Year   [Jan-07-17 01:30PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Del Taco Restaurants Inc (TACO) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-10-16 01:40PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Why Del Taco Restaurants, Inc. Stock Jumped 13% in October   [Nov-04-16 02:15PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of TACO Financial statements of TACO Annual reports of TACO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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