Intrinsic value of Taro Pharmaceutical Industries - TARO

Previous Close

$108.31

  Intrinsic Value

$166.29

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  Rating & Target

str. buy

+54%

Previous close

$108.31

 
Intrinsic value

$166.29

 
Up/down potential

+54%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TARO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  879
  897
  917
  941
  967
  997
  1,029
  1,064
  1,102
  1,143
  1,186
  1,233
  1,283
  1,337
  1,393
  1,453
  1,517
  1,585
  1,656
  1,731
  1,811
  1,895
  1,983
  2,076
  2,175
  2,278
  2,387
  2,502
  2,623
  2,750
  2,883
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  317
  325
  333
  342
  353
  364
  376
  390
  404
  420
  436
  453
  472
  492
  513
  536
  560
  585
  611
  640
  669
  700
  733
  768
  805
  843
  884
  926
  971
  1,018
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  364
  317
  325
  333
  342
  353
  364
  376
  390
  404
  420
  436
  453
  472
  492
  513
  536
  560
  585
  611
  640
  669
  700
  733
  768
  805
  843
  884
  926
  971
  1,018
Operating income, $m
  515
  579
  593
  608
  625
  644
  665
  687
  712
  738
  767
  798
  830
  865
  901
  940
  981
  1,025
  1,071
  1,120
  1,171
  1,225
  1,283
  1,343
  1,407
  1,474
  1,544
  1,618
  1,696
  1,779
  1,865
EBITDA, $m
  530
  595
  608
  624
  641
  661
  682
  705
  731
  758
  787
  818
  851
  886
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,051
  1,098
  1,148
  1,201
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,511
  1,583
  1,659
  1,739
  1,823
  1,912
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  561
  579
  592
  607
  624
  643
  664
  686
  710
  736
  764
  795
  827
  861
  897
  935
  976
  1,019
  1,065
  1,113
  1,164
  1,217
  1,274
  1,333
  1,396
  1,462
  1,532
  1,605
  1,682
  1,763
  1,848
Tax expense, $m
  104
  156
  160
  164
  169
  174
  179
  185
  192
  199
  206
  215
  223
  232
  242
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  433
  454
  476
  499
Net income, $m
  456
  423
  432
  443
  456
  469
  484
  501
  518
  538
  558
  580
  604
  628
  655
  683
  713
  744
  777
  812
  849
  889
  930
  973
  1,019
  1,067
  1,118
  1,172
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  1,387
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,290
  921
  943
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,219
  1,268
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,702
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,454
  2,571
  2,696
  2,826
  2,963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  903
  921
  943
  967
  994
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,132
  1,174
  1,219
  1,268
  1,319
  1,374
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,702
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,454
  2,571
  2,696
  2,826
  2,963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.973
  0.974
  0.972
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.972
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.974
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
  0.973
Average production assets, $m
  177
  180
  184
  189
  194
  200
  207
  214
  221
  230
  238
  248
  258
  269
  280
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  417
  437
  458
  480
  503
  527
  553
  580
Working capital, $m
  1,789
  410
  419
  430
  442
  455
  470
  486
  503
  522
  542
  564
  586
  611
  637
  664
  693
  724
  757
  791
  827
  866
  906
  949
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,143
  1,199
  1,257
  1,318
Total debt, $m
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  67
  78
  90
  103
  116
  131
  146
  162
  179
  197
  216
  237
  258
  280
  304
  329
  355
  383
  412
  443
  475
  509
Total liabilities, $m
  222
  228
  233
  239
  246
  253
  261
  270
  280
  290
  301
  313
  326
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  460
  481
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  666
  698
  732
Total equity, $m
  2,067
  694
  710
  728
  749
  771
  796
  823
  853
  884
  918
  954
  993
  1,034
  1,078
  1,125
  1,174
  1,226
  1,281
  1,340
  1,401
  1,466
  1,535
  1,607
  1,683
  1,763
  1,847
  1,936
  2,030
  2,128
  2,231
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,289
  922
  943
  967
  995
  1,024
  1,057
  1,093
  1,133
  1,174
  1,219
  1,267
  1,319
  1,373
  1,432
  1,494
  1,559
  1,628
  1,701
  1,779
  1,861
  1,947
  2,038
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,453
  2,571
  2,696
  2,826
  2,963
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.030
  0.040
  0.050
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753
  0.753

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  456
  423
  432
  443
  456
  469
  484
  501
  518
  538
  558
  580
  604
  628
  655
  683
  713
  744
  777
  812
  849
  889
  930
  973
  1,019
  1,067
  1,118
  1,172
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
Funds from operations, $m
  358
  438
  448
  460
  472
  486
  502
  519
  537
  557
  578
  600
  625
  650
  678
  707
  737
  770
  804
  841
  879
  919
  962
  1,007
  1,055
  1,105
  1,157
  1,212
  1,271
  1,332
  1,396
Change in working capital, $m
  -80
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Cash from operations, $m
  438
  430
  439
  449
  460
  473
  487
  503
  520
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  679
  708
  739
  772
  806
  843
  881
  922
  965
  1,010
  1,057
  1,107
  1,160
  1,216
  1,274
  1,335
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -118
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
Free cash flow, $m
  320
  413
  420
  429
  439
  451
  465
  479
  495
  512
  531
  550
  572
  594
  619
  644
  672
  701
  731
  764
  798
  835
  873
  913
  956
  1,001
  1,048
  1,098
  1,150
  1,206
  1,264
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -295
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -295
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  24
  417
  425
  435
  446
  459
  473
  488
  504
  522
  542
  562
  584
  608
  633
  660
  688
  718
  750
  783
  819
  856
  895
  937
  981
  1,027
  1,076
  1,127
  1,181
  1,238
  1,297
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -136
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -103
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  1,387
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,790
  409
  417
  426
  436
  448
  461
  475
  491
  508
  526
  546
  567
  589
  613
  639
  666
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  905
  947
  991
  1,038
  1,088
  1,139
  1,194
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,716
  375
  363
  351
  338
  325
  311
  297
  282
  266
  250
  233
  215
  198
  180
  162
  145
  128
  112
  96
  82
  69
  57
  46
  37
  29
  22
  17
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Taro) is a science-based pharmaceutical company. The Company operates principally through three entities: Taro Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Taro Israel), and two of its subsidiaries, Taro Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Taro Canada) and Taro U.S.A. The Company markets over 200 pharmaceutical products in over 25 countries. The Company's owned product brands include Rokacet, with generic names, such as acetaminophen, codeine and caffeine; Topicort, with the generic name, desoximetasone; Etopan, with the generic name etodolac, and Ovide, with the generic name, malathion, among others. The Company's other generic products include acetazolamide, adapalene, alclometasone dipropionate, amiodarone hydrochloride, ammonium lactate, augmented betamethasone dipropionate, cetirizine hydrochloride, clobetasol propionate, clomipramine hydrochloride, clorazepate dipotassium, fluorouracil, ketoconazole, metronidazole, mupirocin and warfarin sodium, among others.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Taro Pharmaceutical Industries (TARO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.6
Price to Sales 5
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 89.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 20.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.7%
Return On Total Capital 22.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.5%
Return On Equity 22.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79%
EBITDA Margin 65.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 67.8%
Operating Margin 58.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 63.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.1%
Net Profit Margin 51.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.9%
Effective Tax Rate 18.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

TARO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TARO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $879 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Taro Pharmaceutical Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Taro Pharmaceutical Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TARO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TARO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Taro Pharmaceutical Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Taro Pharmaceutical Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TARO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 35.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TARO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Taro Pharmaceutical Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Taro Pharmaceutical Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TARO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TARO are equal to 20.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Taro Pharmaceutical Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TARO is equal to 45.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2067 million for Taro Pharmaceutical Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 40.532 million for Taro Pharmaceutical Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Taro Pharmaceutical Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Taro Announces Joining of CEO   [Sep-01-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Taro posts 1Q profit   [Aug-09-17 03:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ Taro Provides Results for Quarter Ended June 2017   [Aug-08-17 06:48PM  Business Wire]
▶ Taro to Announce First Quarter Results on August 8, 2017   [Aug-02-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ [$$] In Hot Pursuit of Indian Growth Stocks   [Jul-13-17 09:02PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Taro posts 4Q profit   [May-22-17 06:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Drug Stocks With Some of the Highest Profit Margins   [Mar-17-17 11:03AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Taro Pharma 3Q Net $140M Versus $189M Last Year   [Feb-10-17 10:32AM  Investopedia]
▶ Taro posts 3Q profit   [Feb-09-17 07:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Taro Provides Results for December 31, 2016   [05:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Taro to Announce Third Quarter Results on February 9, 2017   [Jan-31-17 05:17PM  Business Wire]
▶ Taro Announces Appointment of Interim CEO   [Dec-01-16 05:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ NYPD Union Goes After Drug Prices Amid DOJ Pharma Probe   [Nov-17-16 11:00AM  at Bloomberg]
Financial statements of TARO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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