Intrinsic value of TASER International - TASR

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$21.90

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$21.90

 
Intrinsic value

$124.27

 
Up/down potential

+467%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TASR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.35
  46.40
  42.26
  38.53
  35.18
  32.16
  29.45
  27.00
  24.80
  22.82
  21.04
  19.44
  17.99
  16.69
  15.52
  14.47
  13.52
  12.67
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
Revenue, $m
  268
  392
  558
  773
  1,045
  1,381
  1,788
  2,271
  2,834
  3,481
  4,214
  5,033
  5,938
  6,929
  8,005
  9,163
  10,402
  11,721
  13,116
  14,587
  16,132
  17,750
  19,442
  21,207
  23,045
  24,958
  26,948
  29,016
  31,166
  33,399
  35,720
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  323
  459
  636
  859
  1,136
  1,470
  1,866
  2,329
  2,860
  3,462
  4,133
  4,877
  5,691
  6,574
  7,525
  8,543
  9,626
  10,772
  11,980
  13,249
  14,578
  15,967
  17,416
  18,926
  20,498
  22,132
  23,830
  25,595
  27,430
  29,336
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  236
  323
  459
  636
  859
  1,136
  1,470
  1,866
  2,329
  2,860
  3,462
  4,133
  4,877
  5,691
  6,574
  7,525
  8,543
  9,626
  10,772
  11,980
  13,249
  14,578
  15,967
  17,416
  18,926
  20,498
  22,132
  23,830
  25,595
  27,430
  29,336
Operating income, $m
  32
  69
  99
  137
  186
  246
  319
  405
  506
  621
  752
  899
  1,061
  1,238
  1,431
  1,638
  1,859
  2,095
  2,344
  2,607
  2,883
  3,173
  3,475
  3,790
  4,119
  4,461
  4,816
  5,186
  5,570
  5,969
  6,384
EBITDA, $m
  36
  75
  106
  147
  199
  263
  340
  432
  540
  663
  802
  958
  1,130
  1,319
  1,524
  1,744
  1,980
  2,231
  2,497
  2,777
  3,071
  3,379
  3,701
  4,037
  4,387
  4,751
  5,130
  5,523
  5,932
  6,358
  6,800
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  2
  5
  8
  13
  19
  25
  33
  43
  53
  66
  79
  94
  111
  128
  148
  168
  190
  213
  238
  263
  290
  318
  347
  378
  410
  443
  477
  513
  550
Earnings before tax, $m
  32
  69
  97
  132
  177
  233
  300
  380
  472
  579
  699
  834
  982
  1,144
  1,320
  1,509
  1,712
  1,927
  2,154
  2,394
  2,646
  2,909
  3,185
  3,472
  3,772
  4,083
  4,407
  4,744
  5,093
  5,457
  5,835
Tax expense, $m
  15
  19
  26
  36
  48
  63
  81
  103
  128
  156
  189
  225
  265
  309
  356
  408
  462
  520
  582
  646
  714
  786
  860
  937
  1,018
  1,102
  1,190
  1,281
  1,375
  1,473
  1,575
Net income, $m
  17
  50
  71
  97
  129
  170
  219
  277
  345
  422
  510
  609
  717
  835
  964
  1,102
  1,249
  1,406
  1,573
  1,748
  1,931
  2,124
  2,325
  2,535
  2,753
  2,981
  3,217
  3,463
  3,718
  3,984
  4,259

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  278
  277
  394
  545
  737
  974
  1,261
  1,602
  1,999
  2,455
  2,972
  3,549
  4,188
  4,887
  5,645
  6,462
  7,336
  8,266
  9,250
  10,287
  11,376
  12,518
  13,711
  14,955
  16,252
  17,601
  19,004
  20,463
  21,979
  23,554
  25,191
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  189
  277
  394
  545
  737
  974
  1,261
  1,602
  1,999
  2,455
  2,972
  3,549
  4,188
  4,887
  5,645
  6,462
  7,336
  8,266
  9,250
  10,287
  11,376
  12,518
  13,711
  14,955
  16,252
  17,601
  19,004
  20,463
  21,979
  23,554
  25,191
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.418
  1.415
  1.416
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
  1.418
Average production assets, $m
  35
  51
  72
  100
  135
  178
  231
  293
  366
  449
  544
  649
  766
  894
  1,033
  1,182
  1,342
  1,512
  1,692
  1,882
  2,081
  2,290
  2,508
  2,736
  2,973
  3,220
  3,476
  3,743
  4,020
  4,309
  4,608
Working capital, $m
  99
  15
  21
  29
  39
  51
  66
  84
  105
  129
  156
  186
  220
  256
  296
  339
  385
  434
  485
  540
  597
  657
  719
  785
  853
  923
  997
  1,074
  1,153
  1,236
  1,322
Total debt, $m
  2
  61
  140
  241
  370
  530
  722
  951
  1,218
  1,525
  1,872
  2,260
  2,689
  3,159
  3,669
  4,218
  4,805
  5,429
  6,091
  6,788
  7,520
  8,287
  9,089
  9,925
  10,796
  11,703
  12,646
  13,626
  14,645
  15,703
  16,803
Total liabilities, $m
  127
  186
  265
  366
  495
  655
  847
  1,076
  1,343
  1,650
  1,997
  2,385
  2,814
  3,284
  3,794
  4,343
  4,930
  5,554
  6,216
  6,913
  7,645
  8,412
  9,214
  10,050
  10,921
  11,828
  12,771
  13,751
  14,770
  15,828
  16,928
Total equity, $m
  151
  91
  129
  179
  242
  320
  414
  525
  656
  805
  975
  1,164
  1,374
  1,603
  1,852
  2,120
  2,406
  2,711
  3,034
  3,374
  3,731
  4,106
  4,497
  4,905
  5,331
  5,773
  6,233
  6,712
  7,209
  7,726
  8,263
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  278
  277
  394
  545
  737
  975
  1,261
  1,601
  1,999
  2,455
  2,972
  3,549
  4,188
  4,887
  5,646
  6,463
  7,336
  8,265
  9,250
  10,287
  11,376
  12,518
  13,711
  14,955
  16,252
  17,601
  19,004
  20,463
  21,979
  23,554
  25,191
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.013
  0.670
  1.080
  1.350
  1.530
  1.660
  1.750
  1.810
  1.860
  1.890
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.970
  1.980
  1.990
  2.000
  2.000
  2.010
  2.010
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.020
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
  2.030
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328
  0.328

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  17
  50
  71
  97
  129
  170
  219
  277
  345
  422
  510
  609
  717
  835
  964
  1,102
  1,249
  1,406
  1,573
  1,748
  1,931
  2,124
  2,325
  2,535
  2,753
  2,981
  3,217
  3,463
  3,718
  3,984
  4,259
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  6
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  27
  34
  41
  50
  58
  69
  81
  93
  106
  121
  136
  152
  170
  187
  206
  226
  246
  268
  290
  313
  337
  362
  388
  415
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  56
  78
  107
  143
  187
  241
  305
  379
  464
  560
  667
  786
  916
  1,057
  1,208
  1,370
  1,543
  1,725
  1,917
  2,119
  2,330
  2,551
  2,781
  3,021
  3,271
  3,530
  3,800
  4,080
  4,372
  4,675
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  30
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
Cash from operations, $m
  18
  56
  72
  99
  133
  175
  226
  287
  358
  440
  533
  637
  753
  879
  1,017
  1,165
  1,325
  1,494
  1,673
  1,863
  2,062
  2,270
  2,488
  2,716
  2,953
  3,200
  3,457
  3,723
  4,001
  4,289
  4,589
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -9
  -12
  -16
  -21
  -26
  -33
  -40
  -49
  -58
  -69
  -81
  -93
  -106
  -121
  -136
  -152
  -170
  -187
  -206
  -226
  -246
  -268
  -290
  -313
  -337
  -362
  -388
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -16
  -21
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -62
  -73
  -83
  -94
  -106
  -117
  -128
  -139
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -237
  -247
  -257
  -267
  -277
  -288
  -299
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -44
  -55
  -68
  -83
  -99
  -116
  -134
  -155
  -175
  -197
  -220
  -242
  -266
  -291
  -316
  -342
  -369
  -396
  -424
  -454
  -483
  -515
  -547
  -580
  -614
  -650
  -687
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  37
  46
  64
  88
  119
  157
  204
  259
  323
  398
  482
  577
  682
  798
  923
  1,058
  1,203
  1,357
  1,521
  1,693
  1,874
  2,064
  2,262
  2,469
  2,685
  2,910
  3,143
  3,386
  3,639
  3,901
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  59
  79
  102
  129
  159
  193
  229
  267
  307
  347
  388
  429
  470
  510
  549
  587
  625
  661
  697
  732
  767
  802
  836
  871
  907
  943
  980
  1,019
  1,058
  1,100
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -35
  59
  79
  102
  129
  159
  193
  229
  267
  307
  347
  388
  429
  470
  510
  549
  587
  625
  661
  697
  732
  767
  802
  836
  871
  907
  943
  980
  1,019
  1,058
  1,100
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -19
  96
  125
  166
  217
  278
  350
  432
  526
  630
  745
  870
  1,006
  1,152
  1,307
  1,472
  1,645
  1,828
  2,018
  2,218
  2,425
  2,641
  2,865
  3,099
  3,341
  3,592
  3,853
  4,124
  4,405
  4,697
  5,001
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -29
  -38
  -50
  -63
  -78
  -94
  -112
  -130
  -150
  -169
  -189
  -209
  -229
  -249
  -268
  -287
  -305
  -323
  -340
  -357
  -374
  -391
  -408
  -425
  -443
  -460
  -478
  -497
  -517
  -537
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  89
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  156
  86
  117
  154
  201
  256
  321
  395
  480
  576
  681
  797
  923
  1,059
  1,204
  1,359
  1,523
  1,696
  1,877
  2,068
  2,267
  2,474
  2,690
  2,915
  3,149
  3,393
  3,645
  3,908
  4,181
  4,464
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  149
  79
  101
  127
  156
  186
  217
  247
  276
  302
  323
  340
  351
  355
  353
  345
  331
  312
  289
  263
  234
  205
  176
  148
  123
  99
  78
  60
  46
  34
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

TASER International, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells conducted electrical weapons (CEWs) worldwide. The company operates through two segments, TASER Weapons and Axon. Its CEWs transmit electrical pulses along the wires and into the body affecting the sensory and motor functions of the peripheral nervous system. The company offers TASER X26P and TASER X2 smart weapons for law enforcement; TASER C2 and TASER Pulse CEWs for the consumer market; and replacement cartridges. It also provides Axon Body, a body-worn camera for law enforcement; Axon Body 2 camera system; Axon Flex camera system that records video and audio of critical incidents; TASER Cam HD, a recording device; Axon Fleet, an in-car video system; Axon Interview, a video and audio recording system; Axon Signal, a body-worn camera; and Axon Dock, a camera charging station. In addition, the company offers Evidence.com, a cloud-based digital evidence management system that allows agencies to store data and enables new workflows for managing and sharing that data; Evidence.com for Prosecutors to manage evidence; and Evidence Sync, a desktop-based application that enables evidence to be uploaded to Evidence.com. Further, it provides Axon Capture a mobile application to allow officers to capture digital evidence from the field; Axon View, a mobile application to provide instant playback of unfolding events; Axon Five, a software application to enhance and analyze images and videos; Axon Convert, a software solution to convert unplayable file formats; and Axon Detect, a photo analysis program for tamper detection. The company sells its products to military forces, private security, and consumer personal protection markets, as well as to federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies and corrections through its direct sales force, distribution partners, online store, and third-party resellers. TASER International, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TASER International (TASR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 67.4
Price to Sales 4.3
Price to Book 7.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 63.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 114.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 35.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 1.3%
Total Debt to Equity 1.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.2%
EBITDA Margin 13.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.1%
Operating Margin 11.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Net Profit Margin 6.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Effective Tax Rate 46.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 42.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

TASR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TASR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $268 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TASER International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TASER International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TASR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 46.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TASR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TASER International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TASER International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TASR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TASR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TASER International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TASER International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TASR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TASR are equal to 12.9%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TASER International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TASR is equal to 3.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $151 million for TASER International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.338 million for TASER International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TASER International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.


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Stock chart of TASR Financial statements of TASR
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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