Intrinsic value of Carrols Restaurant Group - TAST

Previous Close

$12.20

  Intrinsic Value

$37.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+211%

  Value-price divergence*

+4810%

Previous close

$12.20

 
Intrinsic value

$37.95

 
Up/down potential

+211%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+4810%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TAST stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.90
  24.00
  22.10
  20.39
  18.85
  17.47
  16.22
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.36
  11.62
  10.96
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.68
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
Revenue, $m
  944
  1,065
  1,301
  1,566
  1,861
  2,186
  2,540
  2,924
  3,336
  3,776
  4,242
  4,735
  5,255
  5,799
  6,369
  6,965
  7,585
  8,232
  8,904
  9,603
  10,330
  11,085
  11,870
  12,685
  13,533
  14,415
  15,332
  16,287
  17,281
  18,317
  19,397
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  897
  1,095
  1,318
  1,566
  1,840
  2,138
  2,460
  2,806
  3,176
  3,568
  3,981
  4,417
  4,875
  5,354
  5,855
  6,377
  6,920
  7,485
  8,073
  8,684
  9,319
  9,978
  10,664
  11,377
  12,118
  12,889
  13,692
  14,528
  15,399
  16,306
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  138
  141
  145
  149
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  244
  250
Total operating expenses, $m
  908
  1,019
  1,220
  1,446
  1,697
  1,975
  2,276
  2,601
  2,951
  3,325
  3,720
  4,137
  4,577
  5,039
  5,522
  6,027
  6,554
  7,101
  7,671
  8,263
  8,879
  9,519
  10,183
  10,874
  11,592
  12,339
  13,115
  13,924
  14,766
  15,643
  16,556
Operating income, $m
  36
  46
  80
  119
  163
  212
  265
  322
  385
  451
  522
  598
  677
  760
  847
  937
  1,032
  1,130
  1,233
  1,340
  1,451
  1,566
  1,686
  1,811
  1,941
  2,076
  2,217
  2,363
  2,516
  2,675
  2,841
EBITDA, $m
  83
  94
  139
  190
  247
  309
  378
  452
  532
  618
  709
  806
  907
  1,014
  1,125
  1,242
  1,364
  1,491
  1,623
  1,760
  1,903
  2,051
  2,206
  2,366
  2,533
  2,707
  2,887
  3,076
  3,272
  3,476
  3,689
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  19
  26
  35
  44
  54
  65
  78
  91
  105
  121
  137
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  253
  276
  299
  323
  349
  375
  402
  431
  460
  491
  523
  556
  591
  627
Earnings before tax, $m
  17
  27
  54
  85
  119
  158
  199
  245
  294
  346
  401
  461
  523
  588
  656
  726
  800
  877
  957
  1,041
  1,127
  1,218
  1,311
  1,409
  1,510
  1,616
  1,726
  1,840
  1,960
  2,084
  2,214
Tax expense, $m
  -28
  7
  15
  23
  32
  43
  54
  66
  79
  93
  108
  125
  141
  159
  177
  196
  216
  237
  258
  281
  304
  329
  354
  380
  408
  436
  466
  497
  529
  563
  598
Net income, $m
  45
  19
  39
  62
  87
  115
  146
  179
  214
  252
  293
  337
  382
  429
  479
  530
  584
  640
  699
  760
  823
  889
  957
  1,028
  1,103
  1,180
  1,260
  1,344
  1,431
  1,522
  1,616

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  490
  502
  613
  738
  877
  1,031
  1,198
  1,379
  1,573
  1,780
  2,000
  2,233
  2,477
  2,734
  3,003
  3,284
  3,576
  3,881
  4,198
  4,528
  4,870
  5,226
  5,596
  5,981
  6,380
  6,796
  7,229
  7,679
  8,148
  8,636
  9,145
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  488
  502
  613
  738
  877
  1,031
  1,198
  1,379
  1,573
  1,780
  2,000
  2,233
  2,477
  2,734
  3,003
  3,284
  3,576
  3,881
  4,198
  4,528
  4,870
  5,226
  5,596
  5,981
  6,380
  6,796
  7,229
  7,679
  8,148
  8,636
  9,145
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.934
  2.122
  2.122
  2.122
  2.122
  2.120
  2.120
  2.120
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.120
  2.122
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
  2.121
Average production assets, $m
  384
  410
  501
  603
  716
  842
  978
  1,126
  1,284
  1,454
  1,633
  1,823
  2,023
  2,233
  2,452
  2,681
  2,920
  3,169
  3,428
  3,697
  3,977
  4,268
  4,570
  4,884
  5,210
  5,550
  5,903
  6,270
  6,653
  7,052
  7,468
Working capital, $m
  -39
  -59
  -72
  -86
  -102
  -120
  -140
  -161
  -183
  -208
  -233
  -260
  -289
  -319
  -350
  -383
  -417
  -453
  -490
  -528
  -568
  -610
  -653
  -698
  -744
  -793
  -843
  -896
  -950
  -1,007
  -1,067
Total debt, $m
  220
  280
  367
  465
  575
  695
  826
  968
  1,121
  1,283
  1,456
  1,639
  1,831
  2,032
  2,243
  2,464
  2,693
  2,933
  3,181
  3,440
  3,709
  3,989
  4,279
  4,581
  4,895
  5,221
  5,561
  5,914
  6,282
  6,665
  7,065
Total liabilities, $m
  336
  394
  481
  579
  689
  809
  940
  1,082
  1,235
  1,397
  1,570
  1,753
  1,945
  2,146
  2,357
  2,578
  2,807
  3,047
  3,295
  3,554
  3,823
  4,103
  4,393
  4,695
  5,009
  5,335
  5,675
  6,028
  6,396
  6,779
  7,179
Total equity, $m
  155
  108
  132
  159
  189
  222
  258
  296
  338
  383
  430
  480
  533
  588
  646
  706
  769
  834
  903
  973
  1,047
  1,124
  1,203
  1,286
  1,372
  1,461
  1,554
  1,651
  1,752
  1,857
  1,966
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  491
  502
  613
  738
  878
  1,031
  1,198
  1,378
  1,573
  1,780
  2,000
  2,233
  2,478
  2,734
  3,003
  3,284
  3,576
  3,881
  4,198
  4,527
  4,870
  5,227
  5,596
  5,981
  6,381
  6,796
  7,229
  7,679
  8,148
  8,636
  9,145
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.419
  2.600
  2.790
  2.930
  3.050
  3.140
  3.210
  3.270
  3.310
  3.350
  3.390
  3.410
  3.440
  3.460
  3.470
  3.490
  3.500
  3.510
  3.520
  3.530
  3.540
  3.550
  3.560
  3.560
  3.570
  3.570
  3.580
  3.580
  3.590
  3.590
  3.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.314
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  45
  19
  39
  62
  87
  115
  146
  179
  214
  252
  293
  337
  382
  429
  479
  530
  584
  640
  699
  760
  823
  889
  957
  1,028
  1,103
  1,180
  1,260
  1,344
  1,431
  1,522
  1,616
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  47
  49
  59
  71
  83
  98
  113
  130
  148
  167
  188
  207
  230
  254
  279
  305
  332
  360
  390
  420
  452
  485
  519
  555
  592
  631
  671
  713
  756
  801
  849
Funds from operations, $m
  57
  68
  98
  132
  171
  213
  259
  309
  362
  419
  480
  544
  612
  683
  757
  835
  916
  1,001
  1,088
  1,180
  1,275
  1,374
  1,477
  1,583
  1,695
  1,810
  1,931
  2,056
  2,187
  2,323
  2,465
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  108
  111
  147
  187
  231
  278
  330
  385
  444
  506
  571
  640
  713
  789
  868
  950
  1,036
  1,125
  1,218
  1,315
  1,415
  1,520
  1,628
  1,741
  1,859
  1,981
  2,109
  2,241
  2,380
  2,524
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -47
  -57
  -69
  -81
  -96
  -111
  -128
  -146
  -165
  -186
  -207
  -230
  -254
  -279
  -305
  -332
  -360
  -390
  -420
  -452
  -485
  -519
  -555
  -592
  -631
  -671
  -713
  -756
  -801
New CAPEX, $m
  -94
  -79
  -91
  -102
  -114
  -125
  -136
  -148
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -383
  -399
  -416
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -117
  -138
  -159
  -183
  -206
  -232
  -259
  -287
  -315
  -345
  -376
  -407
  -440
  -473
  -508
  -544
  -581
  -619
  -659
  -700
  -743
  -787
  -833
  -881
  -931
  -984
  -1,039
  -1,096
  -1,155
  -1,217
Free cash flow, $m
  -34
  -8
  -26
  -12
  5
  24
  46
  71
  98
  128
  161
  196
  233
  273
  315
  360
  407
  455
  506
  560
  615
  673
  733
  795
  860
  927
  997
  1,070
  1,146
  1,225
  1,307
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  14
  76
  87
  98
  109
  120
  131
  142
  152
  163
  173
  183
  192
  202
  211
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  340
  353
  368
  383
  400
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  14
  76
  87
  98
  109
  120
  131
  142
  152
  163
  173
  183
  192
  202
  211
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  326
  340
  353
  368
  383
  400
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -20
  68
  61
  86
  114
  144
  177
  213
  251
  291
  334
  378
  425
  475
  526
  580
  636
  695
  755
  818
  884
  952
  1,023
  1,097
  1,174
  1,254
  1,337
  1,424
  1,514
  1,608
  1,707
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -47
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  21
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  68
  37
  59
  84
  111
  141
  174
  209
  247
  287
  328
  373
  420
  469
  520
  573
  629
  687
  748
  810
  876
  944
  1,014
  1,088
  1,164
  1,244
  1,327
  1,413
  1,503
  1,598
Discount rate, %
 
  7.80
  8.19
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.95
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.41
  27.73
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  63
  32
  46
  59
  71
  80
  87
  91
  92
  91
  88
  83
  76
  69
  60
  52
  43
  36
  28
  22
  17
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates franchisee restaurants of Burger King. As of January 3, 2016, it operated 705 Burger King restaurants in 16 states of the United States. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Syracuse, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Carrols Restaurant Group (TAST)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.6
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 64.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 140.6%
Total Debt to Equity 141.9%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 19.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Return On Total Capital 13.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Return On Equity 34.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.4%
EBITDA Margin 8.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Operating Margin 3.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Net Profit Margin 4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.2%
Effective Tax Rate -164.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

TAST stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TAST stock intrinsic value calculation we used $859 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Carrols Restaurant Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Carrols Restaurant Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TAST stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 24% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.8%, whose default value for TAST is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Carrols Restaurant Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Carrols Restaurant Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TAST stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $119 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TAST stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.4% for Carrols Restaurant Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Carrols Restaurant Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TAST stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TAST are equal to 38.5%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Carrols Restaurant Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TAST is equal to -5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $108 million for Carrols Restaurant Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.951 million for Carrols Restaurant Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Carrols Restaurant Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 3 Growth Stocks for Astute Investors   [May-10-17 09:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Carrols Restaurant reports 1Q loss   [08:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Carrols Restaurant posts 4Q profit   [07:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Buying Value Stocks on the Breakout   [Feb-08-17 07:59PM  Zacks]
▶ Top Restaurant Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Feb-02-17 10:53AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 1 Great Stock for Retirees   [Jan-05-17 02:40PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Should You Avoid Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc. (TAST)?   [Dec-02-16 08:24AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Chipotle may be the worst restaurant for investors   [Oct-19-16 07:25AM  at MarketWatch]
Stock chart of TAST Financial statements of TAST Annual reports of TAST
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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