Intrinsic value of Liberty Tax - TAX

Previous Close

$14.05

  Intrinsic Value

$23.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+66%

Previous close

$14.05

 
Intrinsic value

$23.35

 
Up/down potential

+66%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of TAX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.58
  14.30
  13.37
  12.53
  11.78
  11.10
  10.49
  9.94
  9.45
  9.00
  8.60
  8.24
  7.92
  7.63
  7.36
  7.13
  6.91
  6.72
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.82
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
Revenue, $m
  174
  199
  225
  254
  284
  315
  348
  383
  419
  457
  496
  537
  579
  624
  669
  717
  767
  818
  872
  928
  986
  1,046
  1,109
  1,175
  1,243
  1,315
  1,389
  1,467
  1,548
  1,633
  1,722
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  162
  184
  207
  231
  256
  283
  311
  341
  371
  403
  435
  470
  506
  543
  581
  622
  663
  707
  752
  799
  848
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,189
  1,255
  1,324
  1,396
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  151
  162
  184
  207
  231
  256
  283
  311
  341
  371
  403
  435
  470
  506
  543
  581
  622
  663
  707
  752
  799
  848
  899
  952
  1,008
  1,066
  1,126
  1,189
  1,255
  1,324
  1,396
Operating income, $m
  23
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  93
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  165
  175
  186
  198
  210
  222
  235
  249
  263
  277
  293
  309
  326
EBITDA, $m
  31
  46
  52
  58
  65
  73
  80
  88
  97
  105
  114
  124
  134
  144
  154
  165
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  256
  271
  287
  303
  320
  338
  357
  376
  397
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  1
  2
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  269
Tax expense, $m
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
Net income, $m
  13
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  204
  215
  243
  274
  306
  340
  376
  413
  452
  493
  536
  580
  626
  673
  723
  774
  828
  884
  942
  1,002
  1,064
  1,130
  1,198
  1,269
  1,342
  1,420
  1,500
  1,584
  1,672
  1,764
  1,859
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  188
  215
  243
  274
  306
  340
  376
  413
  452
  493
  536
  580
  626
  673
  723
  774
  828
  884
  942
  1,002
  1,064
  1,130
  1,198
  1,269
  1,342
  1,420
  1,500
  1,584
  1,672
  1,764
  1,859
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.927
  0.928
  0.926
  0.926
  0.927
  0.927
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.925
  0.927
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.925
  0.926
  0.926
  0.927
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
  0.926
Average production assets, $m
  59
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  196
  211
  227
  243
  260
  277
  296
  314
  334
  355
  376
  398
  421
  446
  471
  497
  525
  554
  584
Working capital, $m
  63
  63
  71
  80
  90
  100
  110
  121
  132
  144
  157
  170
  183
  197
  212
  227
  242
  259
  276
  293
  311
  331
  350
  371
  393
  415
  439
  464
  489
  516
  544
Total debt, $m
  26
  29
  42
  55
  68
  83
  98
  114
  131
  148
  166
  185
  205
  225
  246
  268
  291
  314
  339
  365
  391
  419
  448
  478
  510
  543
  577
  613
  650
  689
  730
Total liabilities, $m
  88
  91
  104
  117
  130
  145
  160
  176
  193
  210
  228
  247
  267
  287
  308
  330
  353
  376
  401
  427
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  605
  639
  675
  712
  751
  792
Total equity, $m
  116
  123
  140
  157
  176
  195
  216
  237
  260
  283
  307
  333
  359
  387
  415
  445
  475
  507
  540
  575
  611
  648
  687
  728
  771
  815
  861
  909
  960
  1,012
  1,067
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  204
  214
  244
  274
  306
  340
  376
  413
  453
  493
  535
  580
  626
  674
  723
  775
  828
  883
  941
  1,002
  1,064
  1,129
  1,197
  1,268
  1,343
  1,420
  1,500
  1,584
  1,672
  1,763
  1,859
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.224
  0.240
  0.300
  0.350
  0.390
  0.420
  0.450
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.532
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574
  0.574

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  26
  35
  39
  43
  48
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  80
  86
  93
  100
  107
  114
  122
  129
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  217
  229
  241
  254
  268
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  27
  31
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  68
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  204
  215
  227
  240
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -89
  -93
  -98
Free cash flow, $m
  19
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  134
  142
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  16
  23
  26
  28
  32
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  133
  140
  148
  156
  165
  174
  183
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  16
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  51
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  108
  114
  121
  128
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  15
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  15
  14
  13
  12
  11
  10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Liberty Tax, Inc. is the holding company for JTH Tax, Inc. The Company is a provider of tax preparation services. The Company provides retail federal and state income tax preparation services and related tax settlement products in the United States and Canada. The Company's tax preparation services and related tax settlement products are offered primarily through franchised locations. All of the Company's offices are operated under the Liberty Tax Service and SiempreTax+ brands. The Company also provides an online digital Do-It-Yourself (DIY) tax program in the United States. The Company offers two types of tax settlement financial products: refund transfer products, which include providing a means by which a customer receives his or her refund, and refund-based loans. The Company's LibTax software allows tax customers to have their federal and state income tax returns filed electronically.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Liberty Tax (TAX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.9
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity 15.5%
Total Debt to Equity 22.4%
Interest Coverage 12
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
Return On Equity 11.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 17.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.4%
Operating Margin 13.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 69.2%

TAX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TAX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $174 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Liberty Tax. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Liberty Tax. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TAX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TAX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Liberty Tax, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Liberty Tax.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TAX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TAX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.2% for Liberty Tax.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Liberty Tax. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TAX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TAX are equal to 33.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Liberty Tax operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TAX is equal to 31.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $116 million for Liberty Tax - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.683 million for Liberty Tax is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Liberty Tax at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tax companies preparing for possible GOP tax reform   [Oct-13-17 04:59PM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ Trump to enlist truckers to help sell his tax plan   [Oct-11-17 06:11AM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ When Should You Buy Liberty Tax Inc (TAX)?   [Oct-08-17 08:19PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Liberty Tax names Ed Brunot its CEO   [Sep-08-17 05:44PM  MarketWatch]
▶ Competitor fires Hewitt, a tax visionary and former H&R Block employee   [Sep-07-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Liberty Tax reports 1Q loss   [Sep-06-17 11:57PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Liberty Tax, Inc. : August 11, 2017   [Aug-11-17 06:45PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Liberty Tax, Inc. : July 31, 2017   [Jul-31-17 05:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ H&R Block Stock: Time to Consider Selling?   [Jun-21-17 05:26PM  Investopedia]
▶ Liberty Tax posts 4Q profit   [06:54AM  Associated Press]
▶ Liberty Tax Service Partners with NFL Alumni Association   [Jun-01-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Liberty Tax, Inc. : April 17, 2017   [Apr-17-17 01:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Liberty Tax, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ [$$] Why More Than a Million Taxpayers Are Reaching for Refund Loans   [Mar-13-17 12:49AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Why More Than a Million Taxpayers Are Reaching for Refund Loans   [Mar-11-17 08:00AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ How Tax Company Earnings Fared In Q4   [Mar-08-17 05:16PM  Benzinga]
▶ Why H&R Block Stock Is Surging Today   [01:57PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Liberty Tax posts 3Q profit   [06:38AM  Associated Press]
▶ Guide to 7 Top Tax Software Programs, 2017   [Feb-23-17 03:20PM  at Kiplinger]
▶ Liberty Tax Anticipates Busy February for Tax Preparers   [Feb-01-17 11:51AM  Marketwired]
▶ Goodbye Overregulation, Hello Small Business Growth   [Jan-17-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Liberty Tax Stock Trades Ex-Dividend Tuesday   [Jan-09-17 08:42PM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of TAX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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