Intrinsic value of Transcontinental Realty Investors - TCI

Previous Close

$27.34

  Intrinsic Value

$5.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-79%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$27.34

 
Intrinsic value

$5.83

 
Up/down potential

-79%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TCI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.69
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  118
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
  148
  153
  159
  166
  172
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  320
  336
  352
  369
  387
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
Total operating expenses, $m
  101
  104
  107
  109
  112
  116
  119
  122
  126
  131
  135
  139
  144
  149
  155
  160
  166
  171
  178
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  252
  262
  273
  284
Operating income, $m
  18
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  59
  63
  68
  73
  79
  84
  90
  97
  103
EBITDA, $m
  42
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  79
  83
  88
  93
  99
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  187
  198
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  150
  157
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,186
  1,192
  1,219
  1,250
  1,286
  1,325
  1,367
  1,414
  1,464
  1,519
  1,577
  1,639
  1,706
  1,777
  1,852
  1,932
  2,016
  2,106
  2,201
  2,301
  2,407
  2,518
  2,636
  2,760
  2,891
  3,028
  3,173
  3,326
  3,486
  3,655
  3,832
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,168
  1,192
  1,219
  1,250
  1,286
  1,325
  1,367
  1,414
  1,464
  1,519
  1,577
  1,639
  1,706
  1,777
  1,852
  1,932
  2,016
  2,106
  2,201
  2,301
  2,407
  2,518
  2,636
  2,760
  2,891
  3,028
  3,173
  3,326
  3,486
  3,655
  3,832
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
  0.101
Average production assets, $m
  868
  885
  905
  929
  955
  984
  1,015
  1,050
  1,087
  1,128
  1,171
  1,217
  1,267
  1,319
  1,375
  1,434
  1,497
  1,564
  1,634
  1,709
  1,787
  1,870
  1,957
  2,049
  2,146
  2,249
  2,356
  2,469
  2,589
  2,714
  2,846
Working capital, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
Total debt, $m
  842
  856
  879
  905
  934
  967
  1,002
  1,041
  1,083
  1,129
  1,177
  1,229
  1,285
  1,344
  1,406
  1,473
  1,544
  1,618
  1,697
  1,781
  1,869
  1,962
  2,060
  2,164
  2,273
  2,387
  2,508
  2,635
  2,769
  2,910
  3,058
Total liabilities, $m
  980
  994
  1,017
  1,043
  1,072
  1,105
  1,140
  1,179
  1,221
  1,267
  1,315
  1,367
  1,423
  1,482
  1,544
  1,611
  1,682
  1,756
  1,835
  1,919
  2,007
  2,100
  2,198
  2,302
  2,411
  2,525
  2,646
  2,773
  2,907
  3,048
  3,196
Total equity, $m
  206
  198
  202
  208
  213
  220
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  283
  295
  307
  321
  335
  350
  365
  382
  400
  418
  438
  458
  480
  503
  527
  552
  579
  607
  636
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,186
  1,192
  1,219
  1,251
  1,285
  1,325
  1,367
  1,414
  1,464
  1,519
  1,577
  1,639
  1,706
  1,777
  1,851
  1,932
  2,017
  2,106
  2,200
  2,301
  2,407
  2,518
  2,636
  2,760
  2,891
  3,028
  3,173
  3,325
  3,486
  3,655
  3,832
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.087
  4.330
  4.340
  4.360
  4.380
  4.400
  4.420
  4.440
  4.460
  4.480
  4.500
  4.520
  4.540
  4.560
  4.580
  4.590
  4.610
  4.630
  4.650
  4.660
  4.680
  4.690
  4.710
  4.720
  4.740
  4.750
  4.760
  4.770
  4.790
  4.800
  4.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166
  0.166

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -54
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  20
  22
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -67
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -136
  -143
  -149
  -157
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
Free cash flow, $m
  -59
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -159
  -166
  -172
  -179
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  79
  81
  83
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  53
  57
  62
  66
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  104
  110
  115
  121
  127
  132
  138
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  231
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -14
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -28
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -29
  -29
  -30
  -30
  -30
  -31
  -31
  -31
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -32
  -31
Discount rate, %
 
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.23
  23.35
  24.51
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.49
  36.22
  38.03
  39.93
  41.93
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -12
  -20
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  87.4
  76.1
  66.1
  57.3
  49.6
  43.0
  37.1
  32.1
  27.8
  24.0
  20.8
  18.0
  15.6
  13.6
  11.8
  10.3
  9.0
  7.8
  6.9
  6.0
  5.3
  4.7
  4.1
  3.6
  3.2
  2.9
  2.5
  2.3
  2.0
  1.8

Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. is an externally advised and managed real estate investment company that owns a portfolio of income-producing properties and land held for development. The Company's segments are Commercial Properties, Apartments, Land and Other. Its portfolio of income-producing properties includes residential apartment communities, office buildings and other commercial properties. It acquires land mainly in in-fill locations or suburban markets. The Company's income-producing properties consist of approximately eight commercial properties, including five office buildings, two retail properties and an industrial warehouse, comprising in aggregate approximately 1.9 million square feet; a golf course comprising approximately 96.09 acres, and approximately 50 residential apartment communities comprising over 7,980 units, excluding apartments being developed. In addition, it owns approximately 3,660 acres of land held for development.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 2
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 29.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -9.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 405.8%
Total Debt to Equity 408.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
EBITDA Margin 57.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

TCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $118 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Transcontinental Realty Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Transcontinental Realty Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13%, whose default value for TCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Transcontinental Realty Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Transcontinental Realty Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Transcontinental Realty Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Transcontinental Realty Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCI are equal to 735.2%.

Life of production assets of 36.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Transcontinental Realty Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCI is equal to -10.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $206 million for Transcontinental Realty Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.828 million for Transcontinental Realty Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Transcontinental Realty Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Transcontinental Realty Investors, LLC Expands US Assets   [Oct-10-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 2Q loss   [Aug-14-17 11:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 1Q loss   [May-16-17 11:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 4Q profit   [Apr-03-17 05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Abode Properties Announces Stellar Growth   [Mar-20-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Abode Properties Announces Website Launch   [Aug-29-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Aug-15  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [May-15  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Apr-27  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Nov-15  07:07PM  Company Spotlight]
Financial statements of TCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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