Intrinsic value of Transcontinental Realty Investors - TCI

Previous Close

$22.08

  Intrinsic Value

$6.19

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

  Value-price divergence*

-112%

Previous close

$22.08

 
Intrinsic value

$6.19

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-112%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as TCI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  15.69
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.53
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.88
  5.80
  5.72
  5.64
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  118
  130
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  265
  284
  303
  322
  343
  364
  386
  409
  433
  458
  485
  512
  541
  570
  602
  634
  668
  704
  741
  781
  822
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  65
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  107
  116
  124
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
  217
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  371
  390
  411
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
Total operating expenses, $m
  101
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  158
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  298
  312
  328
  344
  361
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  478
  501
Operating income, $m
  18
  21
  26
  32
  38
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  78
  85
  93
  102
  111
  120
  129
  139
  150
  160
  172
  184
  196
  209
  223
  237
  252
  268
  285
  302
  321
EBITDA, $m
  42
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  99
  109
  120
  131
  143
  155
  168
  181
  195
  209
  224
  239
  256
  273
  291
  309
  329
  349
  370
  393
  416
  441
  467
  494
  522
Interest expense (income), $m
  44
  45
  51
  57
  63
  69
  76
  82
  89
  97
  104
  112
  120
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  327
  344
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  18
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,186
  1,315
  1,443
  1,577
  1,717
  1,863
  2,014
  2,171
  2,335
  2,505
  2,682
  2,865
  3,056
  3,255
  3,462
  3,677
  3,901
  4,134
  4,377
  4,631
  4,895
  5,172
  5,460
  5,762
  6,077
  6,407
  6,751
  7,112
  7,489
  7,885
  8,299
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,168
  1,315
  1,443
  1,577
  1,717
  1,863
  2,014
  2,171
  2,335
  2,505
  2,682
  2,865
  3,056
  3,255
  3,462
  3,677
  3,901
  4,134
  4,377
  4,631
  4,895
  5,172
  5,460
  5,762
  6,077
  6,407
  6,751
  7,112
  7,489
  7,885
  8,299
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.101
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
Average production assets, $m
  868
  957
  1,050
  1,148
  1,250
  1,356
  1,466
  1,580
  1,700
  1,823
  1,952
  2,086
  2,225
  2,369
  2,519
  2,676
  2,839
  3,009
  3,186
  3,371
  3,563
  3,764
  3,974
  4,194
  4,423
  4,663
  4,914
  5,176
  5,451
  5,739
  6,040
Working capital, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Total debt, $m
  842
  948
  1,054
  1,165
  1,280
  1,401
  1,526
  1,656
  1,791
  1,931
  2,077
  2,229
  2,387
  2,551
  2,721
  2,899
  3,084
  3,277
  3,477
  3,687
  3,906
  4,134
  4,372
  4,621
  4,882
  5,154
  5,439
  5,736
  6,048
  6,375
  6,717
Total liabilities, $m
  980
  1,086
  1,192
  1,303
  1,418
  1,539
  1,664
  1,794
  1,929
  2,069
  2,215
  2,367
  2,525
  2,689
  2,859
  3,037
  3,222
  3,415
  3,615
  3,825
  4,044
  4,272
  4,510
  4,759
  5,020
  5,292
  5,577
  5,874
  6,186
  6,513
  6,855
Total equity, $m
  206
  229
  251
  274
  299
  324
  350
  378
  406
  436
  467
  499
  532
  566
  602
  640
  679
  719
  762
  806
  852
  900
  950
  1,003
  1,057
  1,115
  1,175
  1,237
  1,303
  1,372
  1,444
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,186
  1,315
  1,443
  1,577
  1,717
  1,863
  2,014
  2,172
  2,335
  2,505
  2,682
  2,866
  3,057
  3,255
  3,461
  3,677
  3,901
  4,134
  4,377
  4,631
  4,896
  5,172
  5,460
  5,762
  6,077
  6,407
  6,752
  7,111
  7,489
  7,885
  8,299
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.087
  4.140
  4.200
  4.240
  4.290
  4.320
  4.350
  4.380
  4.410
  4.430
  4.450
  4.470
  4.490
  4.500
  4.520
  4.530
  4.540
  4.560
  4.570
  4.580
  4.590
  4.590
  4.600
  4.610
  4.620
  4.620
  4.630
  4.640
  4.640
  4.650
  4.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.166
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174
  0.174

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -27
  -26
  -26
  -25
  -25
  -24
  -24
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  182
  191
  201
Funds from operations, $m
  7
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  23
  27
  30
  34
  38
  43
  47
  52
  57
  62
  67
  73
  79
  85
  92
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  138
  147
  157
  167
  178
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  9
  11
  14
  18
  21
  25
  28
  32
  36
  40
  45
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  108
  116
  124
  132
  141
  151
  161
  171
  182
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -182
  -191
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -139
  -145
  -150
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -288
  -301
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -67
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -148
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -252
  -265
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -335
  -351
  -369
  -387
  -406
  -427
  -448
  -470
  -492
Free cash flow, $m
  -59
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -131
  -135
  -140
  -144
  -149
  -154
  -159
  -165
  -170
  -176
  -183
  -189
  -196
  -203
  -211
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -298
  -311
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  106
  106
  111
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  326
  342
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  47
  47
  48
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  84
  86
  88
  91
  93
  96
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  62
  153
  153
  159
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  196
  203
  211
  218
  226
  234
  243
  251
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  315
  328
  341
  356
  371
  386
  403
  419
  438
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  43
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  110
  116
  121
  127
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  1
  -47
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -4
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
Discount rate, %
 
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.23
  23.35
  24.51
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.49
  36.22
  38.03
  39.93
  41.93
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  79.5
  64.6
  53.1
  44.1
  37.0
  31.4
  26.8
  23.0
  20.0
  17.4
  15.2
  13.4
  11.9
  10.6
  9.4
  8.4
  7.6
  6.8
  6.2
  5.6
  5.1
  4.7
  4.3
  3.9
  3.6
  3.3
  3.1
  2.8
  2.6
  2.4

Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. acquires, develops, and owns residential and commercial real estate properties through acquisitions, leases, and partnerships in the United States. The company leases apartment units to residents; leases office, industrial, and retail space to various for-profit businesses, as well as to local, state, and federal agencies; and leases trade show and exhibit space to temporary, as well as long-term tenants. In addition, its real estate properties consist of commercial properties, including office buildings, industrial warehouses, and shopping centers; apartments; and new properties, such as apartment homes. Further, the company invests in unimproved land and apartment development and construction, and mortgage loans on real estate, including first, and wraparound and junior mortgage loans. Additionally, it originates its mortgage loans, and acquires existing mortgage notes directly from builders, developers, and property owners, as well as through mortgage banking firms, commercial banks, and other qualified brokers. As of September 30, 2008, its properties consisted of 29 commercial buildings, including 20 office buildings, 5 commercial warehouses, and 4 retail centers; 51 apartment communities; and 7,425 acres of developed and undeveloped land. The company was founded in 1983 and headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Transcontinental Realty Investors (TCI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 28.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 405.8%
Total Debt to Equity 408.7%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 48.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.2%
EBITDA Margin 57.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.2%
Operating Margin 14.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.6%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 41.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

TCI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $118 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Transcontinental Realty Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Transcontinental Realty Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13%, whose default value for TCI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Transcontinental Realty Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Transcontinental Realty Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Transcontinental Realty Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Transcontinental Realty Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCI are equal to 735.2%.

Life of production assets of 36.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Transcontinental Realty Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCI is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $206 million for Transcontinental Realty Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.316 million for Transcontinental Realty Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Transcontinental Realty Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 2Q loss   [Aug-14-17 11:01PM  Associated Press]
▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 1Q loss   [May-16-17 11:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Transcontinental Realty posts 4Q profit   [Apr-03-17 05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Abode Properties Announces Stellar Growth   [Mar-20-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Abode Properties Announces Website Launch   [Aug-29-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Aug-15  08:10PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [May-15  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Apr-27  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.   [Nov-15  07:07PM  Company Spotlight]
Stock chart of TCI Financial statements of TCI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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