Intrinsic value of TC PipeLines - TCP

Previous Close

$53.39

  Intrinsic Value

$3.97

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

  Value-price divergence*

+11%

Previous close

$53.39

 
Intrinsic value

$3.97

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+11%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.78
  13.50
  12.65
  11.89
  11.20
  10.58
  10.02
  9.52
  9.07
  8.66
  8.29
  7.96
  7.67
  7.40
  7.16
  6.94
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.03
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  357
  405
  456
  511
  568
  628
  691
  757
  825
  897
  971
  1,048
  1,129
  1,212
  1,299
  1,389
  1,483
  1,581
  1,682
  1,788
  1,897
  2,012
  2,131
  2,256
  2,385
  2,521
  2,662
  2,810
  2,964
  3,126
  3,295
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  194
  216
  241
  266
  293
  321
  350
  381
  413
  446
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  749
  797
  845
  896
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,123
  1,186
  1,252
  1,321
  1,393
  1,468
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  162
  194
  216
  241
  266
  293
  321
  350
  381
  413
  446
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  749
  797
  845
  896
  950
  1,005
  1,063
  1,123
  1,186
  1,252
  1,321
  1,393
  1,468
Operating income, $m
  195
  212
  240
  270
  302
  335
  370
  406
  445
  484
  525
  581
  626
  672
  720
  770
  822
  876
  933
  991
  1,052
  1,115
  1,182
  1,251
  1,323
  1,398
  1,476
  1,558
  1,644
  1,733
  1,827
EBITDA, $m
  281
  317
  357
  399
  444
  491
  540
  591
  645
  700
  759
  819
  882
  947
  1,015
  1,085
  1,159
  1,235
  1,314
  1,396
  1,482
  1,572
  1,665
  1,762
  1,864
  1,969
  2,080
  2,195
  2,316
  2,442
  2,574
Interest expense (income), $m
  63
  65
  75
  85
  96
  108
  120
  132
  146
  160
  174
  189
  205
  221
  238
  256
  274
  293
  313
  333
  355
  377
  400
  424
  449
  476
  503
  532
  562
  593
  626
Earnings before tax, $m
  244
  147
  166
  185
  206
  228
  250
  274
  299
  324
  351
  392
  421
  451
  482
  515
  548
  583
  620
  658
  697
  739
  782
  826
  873
  922
  973
  1,026
  1,082
  1,140
  1,201
Tax expense, $m
  0
  40
  45
  50
  56
  61
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  106
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  167
  178
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
Net income, $m
  244
  107
  121
  135
  150
  166
  183
  200
  218
  237
  256
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  400
  426
  452
  480
  509
  539
  571
  603
  637
  673
  710
  749
  790
  832
  877

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,354
  3,717
  4,188
  4,685
  5,210
  5,761
  6,338
  6,941
  7,571
  8,226
  8,908
  9,618
  10,355
  11,122
  11,918
  12,746
  13,606
  14,501
  15,431
  16,400
  17,408
  18,458
  19,553
  20,694
  21,885
  23,127
  24,425
  25,780
  27,197
  28,677
  30,226
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,290
  3,717
  4,188
  4,685
  5,210
  5,761
  6,338
  6,941
  7,571
  8,226
  8,908
  9,618
  10,355
  11,122
  11,918
  12,746
  13,606
  14,501
  15,431
  16,400
  17,408
  18,458
  19,553
  20,694
  21,885
  23,127
  24,425
  25,780
  27,197
  28,677
  30,226
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
Average production assets, $m
  2,065
  2,343
  2,640
  2,953
  3,284
  3,631
  3,995
  4,375
  4,772
  5,185
  5,615
  6,063
  6,527
  7,011
  7,513
  8,034
  8,577
  9,140
  9,727
  10,337
  10,973
  11,635
  12,325
  13,044
  13,795
  14,578
  15,396
  16,250
  17,143
  18,077
  19,053
Working capital, $m
  23
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
Total debt, $m
  1,911
  2,130
  2,426
  2,740
  3,071
  3,419
  3,783
  4,164
  4,561
  4,975
  5,405
  5,853
  6,318
  6,802
  7,304
  7,827
  8,369
  8,934
  9,521
  10,132
  10,768
  11,431
  12,122
  12,842
  13,593
  14,377
  15,196
  16,051
  16,945
  17,879
  18,857
Total liabilities, $m
  2,127
  2,346
  2,642
  2,956
  3,287
  3,635
  3,999
  4,380
  4,777
  5,191
  5,621
  6,069
  6,534
  7,018
  7,520
  8,043
  8,585
  9,150
  9,737
  10,348
  10,984
  11,647
  12,338
  13,058
  13,809
  14,593
  15,412
  16,267
  17,161
  18,095
  19,073
Total equity, $m
  1,227
  1,372
  1,545
  1,729
  1,922
  2,126
  2,339
  2,561
  2,794
  3,035
  3,287
  3,549
  3,821
  4,104
  4,398
  4,703
  5,021
  5,351
  5,694
  6,051
  6,424
  6,811
  7,215
  7,636
  8,075
  8,534
  9,013
  9,513
  10,036
  10,582
  11,153
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,354
  3,718
  4,187
  4,685
  5,209
  5,761
  6,338
  6,941
  7,571
  8,226
  8,908
  9,618
  10,355
  11,122
  11,918
  12,746
  13,606
  14,501
  15,431
  16,399
  17,408
  18,458
  19,553
  20,694
  21,884
  23,127
  24,425
  25,780
  27,197
  28,677
  30,226
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.557
  1.550
  1.570
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.630
  1.640
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.660
  1.660
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.670
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.680
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
  1.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.353
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369
  0.369

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  244
  107
  121
  135
  150
  166
  183
  200
  218
  237
  256
  286
  307
  329
  352
  376
  400
  426
  452
  480
  509
  539
  571
  603
  637
  673
  710
  749
  790
  832
  877
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  86
  105
  117
  129
  142
  155
  170
  185
  200
  216
  233
  238
  256
  275
  295
  315
  336
  358
  381
  405
  430
  456
  483
  512
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  709
  747
Funds from operations, $m
  546
  212
  237
  264
  292
  322
  352
  385
  418
  453
  490
  524
  563
  604
  647
  691
  737
  784
  834
  886
  939
  995
  1,054
  1,115
  1,178
  1,245
  1,314
  1,386
  1,462
  1,541
  1,624
Change in working capital, $m
  165
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  381
  210
  236
  262
  290
  320
  350
  383
  416
  451
  487
  522
  561
  602
  644
  688
  734
  781
  831
  882
  936
  992
  1,050
  1,111
  1,174
  1,240
  1,310
  1,382
  1,457
  1,536
  1,619
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -81
  -92
  -104
  -116
  -129
  -142
  -157
  -172
  -187
  -203
  -220
  -238
  -256
  -275
  -295
  -315
  -336
  -358
  -381
  -405
  -430
  -456
  -483
  -512
  -541
  -572
  -604
  -637
  -672
  -709
New CAPEX, $m
  -28
  -279
  -296
  -314
  -331
  -347
  -364
  -380
  -397
  -413
  -430
  -447
  -465
  -483
  -502
  -522
  -542
  -564
  -587
  -610
  -636
  -662
  -690
  -719
  -750
  -783
  -818
  -854
  -893
  -933
  -976
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -229
  -360
  -388
  -418
  -447
  -476
  -506
  -537
  -569
  -600
  -633
  -667
  -703
  -739
  -777
  -817
  -857
  -900
  -945
  -991
  -1,041
  -1,092
  -1,146
  -1,202
  -1,262
  -1,324
  -1,390
  -1,458
  -1,530
  -1,605
  -1,685
Free cash flow, $m
  152
  -149
  -153
  -155
  -156
  -156
  -156
  -154
  -152
  -149
  -146
  -146
  -142
  -138
  -133
  -128
  -124
  -119
  -114
  -110
  -105
  -100
  -96
  -92
  -88
  -84
  -80
  -76
  -73
  -70
  -67
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -45
  271
  297
  314
  331
  348
  364
  381
  397
  414
  430
  448
  465
  484
  503
  522
  543
  564
  587
  611
  636
  663
  691
  720
  751
  784
  819
  855
  894
  934
  977
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  167
  50
  53
  48
  43
  37
  30
  23
  14
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  121
  321
  350
  362
  374
  385
  394
  404
  411
  419
  430
  448
  465
  484
  503
  522
  543
  564
  587
  611
  636
  663
  691
  720
  751
  784
  819
  855
  894
  934
  977
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  273
  171
  197
  208
  218
  228
  239
  249
  259
  269
  284
  302
  323
  346
  369
  394
  419
  446
  473
  502
  531
  562
  595
  628
  664
  700
  739
  779
  821
  865
  911
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -157
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -272
  -283
  -294
  -305
  -317
  -330
  -343
  -357
  -372
  -388
  -404
  -421
  -439
  -459
  -479
  -500
  -523
  -546
  -571
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  26
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  33
  40
  51
  63
  76
  88
  102
  115
  130
  144
  159
  175
  191
  207
  224
  242
  260
  279
  298
  318
  339
Discount rate, %
 
  9.50
  9.98
  10.47
  11.00
  11.55
  12.12
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.47
  16.25
  17.06
  17.91
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.77
  22.86
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.79
  29.18
  30.64
  32.17
  33.78
  35.47
  37.24
  39.10
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  24
  19
  18
  16
  15
  13
  11
  10
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.7
  97.4
  96.4
  95.6
  95.0
  94.6
  94.2
  94.1
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0
  94.0

TC PipeLines, LP is a master limited partnership. The Company acquires, owns and participates in the management of energy infrastructure businesses in North America. The Company's pipeline systems transport natural gas in the United States. As of December 31, 2016, the Company had four pipelines and equity ownership interests in three natural gas interstate pipeline systems that are collectively designed to transport approximately 9.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from producing regions and import facilities to market hubs and consuming markets primarily in the Western, Midwestern and Eastern United States. The Company's pipeline systems include Gas Transmission Northwest LLC (GTN), Bison Pipeline LLC (Bison), North Baja Pipeline, LLC (North Baja), Tuscarora Gas Transmission Company (Tuscarora), Northern Border Pipeline Company (Northern Border), Portland Natural Gas Transmission System (PNGTS), and Great Lakes Gas Transmission Limited Partnership (Great Lakes).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TC PipeLines (TCP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.2
Price to Sales 10.4
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 151.5%
Total Debt to Equity 155.7%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Return On Total Capital 7.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 20.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.1%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 110.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 85.5%
Operating Margin 54.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 51.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 68.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45%
Net Profit Margin 68.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 107.4%

TCP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $357 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TC PipeLines. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of TC PipeLines. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.5%, whose default value for TCP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TC PipeLines, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TC PipeLines.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for TC PipeLines.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TC PipeLines. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCP are equal to 578.3%.

Life of production assets of 25.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TC PipeLines operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCP is equal to 3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1227 million for TC PipeLines - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 69.066 million for TC PipeLines is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TC PipeLines at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to TC Pipelines LP : September 1, 2017   [Aug-31-17 09:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TC Pipelines LP : June 30, 2017   [Jun-30-17 03:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to TC Pipelines LP : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 03:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 ways to play rising oil: Gartman   [Apr-11-17 05:52PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Is TC Pipelines, LP (TCP) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-21-16 06:04AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of TCP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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