Intrinsic value of Container Store Group - TCS

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$5.69

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  1.66
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  795
  811
  830
  851
  875
  901
  930
  962
  996
  1,033
  1,073
  1,115
  1,161
  1,209
  1,260
  1,315
  1,372
  1,433
  1,498
  1,566
  1,638
  1,714
  1,794
  1,878
  1,967
  2,061
  2,159
  2,263
  2,372
  2,487
  2,608
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  762
  779
  798
  820
  845
  871
  900
  931
  965
  1,002
  1,020
  1,061
  1,106
  1,152
  1,202
  1,255
  1,311
  1,369
  1,432
  1,498
  1,567
  1,640
  1,717
  1,799
  1,884
  1,974
  2,069
  2,169
  2,274
  2,385
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  770
  762
  779
  798
  820
  845
  871
  900
  931
  965
  1,002
  1,020
  1,061
  1,106
  1,152
  1,202
  1,255
  1,311
  1,369
  1,432
  1,498
  1,567
  1,640
  1,717
  1,799
  1,884
  1,974
  2,069
  2,169
  2,274
  2,385
Operating income, $m
  25
  49
  51
  52
  55
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  140
  147
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
EBITDA, $m
  59
  90
  92
  95
  98
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  291
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  58
  61
  64
  68
Earnings before tax, $m
  8
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
Tax expense, $m
  3
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
Net income, $m
  5
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  53
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  14
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  758
  759
  776
  796
  818
  843
  870
  900
  932
  967
  1,004
  1,043
  1,086
  1,131
  1,179
  1,230
  1,284
  1,341
  1,401
  1,465
  1,532
  1,603
  1,678
  1,757
  1,840
  1,928
  2,020
  2,117
  2,219
  2,326
  2,439
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  744
  759
  776
  796
  818
  843
  870
  900
  932
  967
  1,004
  1,043
  1,086
  1,131
  1,179
  1,230
  1,284
  1,341
  1,401
  1,465
  1,532
  1,603
  1,678
  1,757
  1,840
  1,928
  2,020
  2,117
  2,219
  2,326
  2,439
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.069
  1.069
  1.070
  1.069
  1.070
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.068
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
  1.069
Average production assets, $m
  313
  319
  327
  335
  345
  355
  367
  379
  393
  407
  423
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  541
  565
  590
  617
  645
  675
  707
  740
  775
  812
  851
  892
  935
  980
  1,027
Working capital, $m
  30
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
Total debt, $m
  322
  327
  340
  354
  371
  389
  409
  431
  454
  480
  507
  536
  567
  600
  635
  672
  712
  754
  798
  845
  894
  946
  1,001
  1,059
  1,120
  1,184
  1,251
  1,323
  1,398
  1,476
  1,559
Total liabilities, $m
  551
  556
  569
  583
  600
  618
  638
  660
  683
  709
  736
  765
  796
  829
  864
  901
  941
  983
  1,027
  1,074
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,288
  1,349
  1,413
  1,480
  1,552
  1,627
  1,705
  1,788
Total equity, $m
  207
  203
  207
  213
  218
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  469
  491
  515
  539
  565
  592
  621
  651
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  758
  759
  776
  796
  818
  843
  870
  900
  932
  967
  1,004
  1,044
  1,086
  1,131
  1,179
  1,229
  1,284
  1,341
  1,401
  1,465
  1,532
  1,603
  1,678
  1,757
  1,840
  1,928
  2,019
  2,117
  2,219
  2,326
  2,439
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.556
  1.610
  1.640
  1.670
  1.700
  1.730
  1.760
  1.790
  1.830
  1.860
  1.890
  1.920
  1.960
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.080
  2.110
  2.130
  2.160
  2.190
  2.210
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.380
  2.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.261
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267
  0.267

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  5
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  53
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  34
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  68
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  67
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  127
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  42
  -19
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  177
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
New CAPEX, $m
  -46
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -46
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -112
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -46
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  39
  40
  40
  41
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  45
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -7
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  31
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -8
  42
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -11
  -35
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -5
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
Discount rate, %
 
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5
  89.5

The Container Store Group, Inc. engages in the retailing of storage and organization products in the United States. The company operates through two segments, The Container Store and Elfa. Its retail stores provide various lifestyle products, including bath, box, closets, collections, containers, food storage, gift packaging, hooks, kitchen, laundry, office, shelving, storage, trash, and travel, as well as elfa branded products. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells component-based shelving and drawer systems that are customizable for any area of the home, such as closets, kitchens, offices, and garages, as well as made-to-measure sliding doors. As of February 7, 2017, it operated 86 store locations with an average of 25,000 square feet each. The company also offers its products directly to customers through its Website and call center, as well as sells to various retailers and distributors, and on a wholesale basis. The Container Store Group, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Coppell, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Container Store Group (TCS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 54.6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -68.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -1.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 152.7%
Total Debt to Equity 155.6%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 0.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Return On Equity 2.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.6%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Payout Ratio 0%

TCS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $795 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Container Store Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Container Store Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for TCS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Container Store Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Container Store Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.6% for Container Store Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Container Store Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCS are equal to 39.4%.

Life of production assets of 15.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Container Store Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCS is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $207 million for Container Store Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.466 million for Container Store Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Container Store Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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Stock chart of TCS Financial statements of TCS Annual reports of TCS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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