Intrinsic value of Container Store Group - TCS

Previous Close

$4.09

  Intrinsic Value

$10.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+156%

  Value-price divergence*

+104%

Previous close

$4.09

 
Intrinsic value

$10.49

 
Up/down potential

+156%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+104%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TCS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.14
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  820
  848
  878
  911
  945
  983
  1,023
  1,065
  1,110
  1,158
  1,209
  1,263
  1,319
  1,379
  1,443
  1,510
  1,580
  1,654
  1,733
  1,815
  1,902
  1,993
  2,090
  2,191
  2,297
  2,409
  2,527
  2,651
  2,781
  2,917
  3,061
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  305
  315
  326
  337
  350
  363
  377
  393
  409
  426
  423
  442
  462
  484
  506
  530
  555
  581
  609
  638
  668
  701
  734
  770
  808
  847
  889
  932
  978
  1,026
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  508
  521
  534
  547
  561
  575
  590
  604
  619
  635
  651
  667
  684
  701
  718
  736
  755
  774
  793
  813
  833
  854
  875
  897
  920
  943
  966
  990
  1,015
  1,040
Total operating expenses, $m
  779
  813
  836
  860
  884
  911
  938
  967
  997
  1,028
  1,061
  1,074
  1,109
  1,146
  1,185
  1,224
  1,266
  1,310
  1,355
  1,402
  1,451
  1,501
  1,555
  1,609
  1,667
  1,728
  1,790
  1,855
  1,922
  1,993
  2,066
Operating income, $m
  41
  35
  42
  51
  61
  72
  84
  98
  113
  130
  148
  188
  210
  233
  258
  285
  314
  345
  378
  414
  452
  492
  535
  581
  630
  682
  737
  796
  858
  924
  994
EBITDA, $m
  78
  78
  86
  96
  107
  119
  132
  147
  164
  182
  202
  223
  246
  271
  297
  326
  357
  390
  425
  463
  503
  546
  592
  641
  692
  747
  806
  868
  934
  1,004
  1,078
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  20
  27
  34
  43
  53
  65
  77
  91
  107
  123
  162
  182
  203
  226
  251
  278
  307
  338
  371
  406
  444
  485
  528
  573
  622
  674
  729
  787
  850
  915
Tax expense, $m
  9
  5
  7
  9
  12
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  33
  44
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  213
  229
  247
Net income, $m
  15
  15
  20
  25
  32
  39
  47
  56
  67
  78
  90
  118
  133
  148
  165
  184
  203
  224
  247
  271
  297
  324
  354
  385
  418
  454
  492
  532
  575
  620
  668

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  762
  776
  804
  834
  866
  900
  937
  975
  1,017
  1,061
  1,107
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,587
  1,662
  1,742
  1,825
  1,914
  2,006
  2,104
  2,206
  2,314
  2,427
  2,546
  2,671
  2,803
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  751
  776
  804
  834
  866
  900
  937
  975
  1,017
  1,061
  1,107
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,587
  1,662
  1,742
  1,825
  1,914
  2,006
  2,104
  2,206
  2,314
  2,427
  2,546
  2,671
  2,803
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.092
  1.093
  1.092
  1.092
  1.091
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.091
  1.091
  1.092
  1.093
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.093
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
Average production assets, $m
  310
  320
  332
  344
  357
  372
  387
  403
  420
  438
  457
  477
  499
  521
  545
  571
  597
  625
  655
  686
  719
  753
  790
  828
  868
  911
  955
  1,002
  1,051
  1,103
  1,157
Working capital, $m
  50
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  165
Total debt, $m
  317
  330
  350
  371
  393
  418
  444
  471
  501
  532
  565
  600
  637
  676
  718
  761
  807
  856
  907
  960
  1,017
  1,077
  1,139
  1,205
  1,275
  1,348
  1,424
  1,505
  1,590
  1,679
  1,773
Total liabilities, $m
  540
  553
  573
  594
  616
  641
  667
  694
  724
  755
  788
  823
  860
  899
  941
  984
  1,030
  1,079
  1,130
  1,183
  1,240
  1,300
  1,362
  1,428
  1,498
  1,571
  1,647
  1,728
  1,813
  1,902
  1,996
Total equity, $m
  222
  224
  232
  240
  249
  259
  270
  281
  293
  305
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  551
  578
  606
  635
  666
  699
  733
  769
  807
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  762
  777
  805
  834
  865
  900
  937
  975
  1,017
  1,060
  1,107
  1,156
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,382
  1,447
  1,515
  1,587
  1,662
  1,742
  1,826
  1,913
  2,006
  2,104
  2,206
  2,313
  2,427
  2,546
  2,671
  2,803
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.428
  1.470
  1.510
  1.540
  1.580
  1.610
  1.650
  1.680
  1.710
  1.740
  1.770
  1.800
  1.830
  1.860
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.150
  2.170
  2.180
  2.200
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.281
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288
  0.288

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  15
  15
  20
  25
  32
  39
  47
  56
  67
  78
  90
  118
  133
  148
  165
  184
  203
  224
  247
  271
  297
  324
  354
  385
  418
  454
  492
  532
  575
  620
  668
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  37
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
Funds from operations, $m
  34
  58
  64
  70
  78
  86
  95
  106
  117
  130
  143
  153
  169
  186
  205
  225
  246
  269
  294
  320
  348
  378
  411
  445
  481
  520
  561
  604
  650
  699
  752
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  45
  57
  62
  68
  76
  84
  93
  103
  115
  127
  140
  150
  165
  183
  201
  221
  242
  265
  290
  316
  344
  374
  405
  439
  475
  514
  554
  597
  643
  692
  744
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -133
Free cash flow, $m
  16
  24
  28
  32
  38
  44
  51
  60
  69
  79
  90
  96
  110
  124
  140
  156
  175
  194
  215
  238
  262
  287
  315
  344
  375
  409
  444
  482
  522
  565
  610
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -14
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -14
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  42
  47
  53
  61
  69
  77
  87
  98
  110
  123
  131
  147
  163
  181
  200
  221
  243
  266
  291
  318
  347
  377
  410
  445
  482
  521
  563
  607
  654
  704
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -15
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  40
  39
  45
  51
  59
  67
  76
  86
  97
  110
  117
  132
  147
  164
  182
  202
  223
  245
  270
  295
  323
  352
  383
  417
  452
  490
  530
  573
  618
  666
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  37
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  35
  34
  33
  31
  27
  25
  22
  20
  17
  14
  12
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Container Store Group, Inc. is a specialty retailer of storage and organization products. The Company's segments include The Container Store (TCS), Elfa and Corporate/Other. The Company's TCS segment consists of its retail stores, Website and call center, as well as its installation and organizational services business. The Company's Elfa segment includes the manufacturing business that produces the elfa brand products that are sold domestically, exclusively through the TCS segment, as well as throughout Europe. Its Swedish subsidiary, Elfa International AB (Elfa), designs and manufactures component-based shelving and drawer systems and made-to-measure sliding doors. It merchandises over 11,000 products in each of its stores and online. Its stores are organized into various lifestyle departments, which include Bath, Box, Closets, Collections, Containers, Custom Closets, Food Storage, Gift Packaging, Hooks, Kitchen, Laundry, Office, Shelving, Storage, Trash and Travel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Container Store Group (TCS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 13.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 140.5%
Total Debt to Equity 142.8%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 2.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Equity 7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 58%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58.3%
EBITDA Margin 9.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 1.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.8%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

TCS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TCS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $820 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Container Store Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Container Store Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TCS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for TCS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Container Store Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Container Store Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TCS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 36%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $496 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TCS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.7% for Container Store Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Container Store Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TCS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TCS are equal to 37.8%.

Life of production assets of 13.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Container Store Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TCS is equal to 5.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $222 million for Container Store Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.078 million for Container Store Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Container Store Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Livingston Residents Couldn't Contain Themselves!   [Oct-10-17 08:56AM  PR Newswire]
▶ [$$] Container Store Pushes Out Debt Maturity to 2021 From 2019   [Aug-22-17 05:47PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ The Container Store Cuts Full Year Guidance   [Aug-21-17 09:20AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Container Store reports 1Q loss   [Aug-03-17 12:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tata Consultancy Profit Misses Estimates   [Jul-13-17 07:24PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ 3 Value Stocks for Expert Investors   [Jun-16-17 08:39AM  Motley Fool]
▶ There's Value in Infosys' Industry Position   [May-31-17 07:00AM  Morningstar]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [09:15AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Container Store Soars 35% After 4Q Beat   [May-23-17 07:07PM  Forbes]
▶ Container Store beats 4Q profit forecasts   [04:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Container Store starts hiring in ABQ   [03:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Foreign Portfolio Investment in India Is Rising in 2017   [Apr-11-17 09:07AM  Market Realist]
▶ Ed Goldman: My first visit to The Container Store   [Mar-10-17 11:30AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Container Store posts 3Q profit   [05:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why The Container Group, Inc. Stock Dropped 23% in January   [Feb-06-17 05:29PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Visa Reform Raises Uncertainty for Offshore IT Services   [Feb-01-17 07:00AM  at Morningstar]
▶ Why The Container Store Group, Inc. Stock Lost 23% in 2016   [Jan-18-17 10:43AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Container Store Group Inc (TCS)?   [Dec-15-16 10:16AM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of TCS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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