Intrinsic value of Bio-Techne - TECH

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$118.76

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TECH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.40
  9.10
  8.69
  8.32
  7.99
  7.69
  7.42
  7.18
  6.96
  6.76
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.04
  5.94
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.62
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.33
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
Revenue, $m
  499
  544
  592
  641
  692
  745
  801
  858
  918
  980
  1,045
  1,112
  1,182
  1,254
  1,330
  1,409
  1,492
  1,577
  1,667
  1,761
  1,859
  1,961
  2,068
  2,179
  2,296
  2,418
  2,546
  2,681
  2,821
  2,968
  3,122
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  364
  391
  420
  451
  482
  514
  548
  583
  620
  658
  654
  696
  738
  783
  829
  878
  929
  981
  1,036
  1,094
  1,154
  1,217
  1,283
  1,352
  1,424
  1,499
  1,578
  1,661
  1,747
  1,838
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  348
  364
  391
  420
  451
  482
  514
  548
  583
  620
  658
  654
  696
  738
  783
  829
  878
  929
  981
  1,036
  1,094
  1,154
  1,217
  1,283
  1,352
  1,424
  1,499
  1,578
  1,661
  1,747
  1,838
Operating income, $m
  151
  181
  200
  221
  242
  264
  286
  310
  335
  360
  387
  457
  486
  516
  547
  580
  614
  649
  686
  724
  765
  807
  851
  896
  945
  995
  1,048
  1,103
  1,160
  1,221
  1,284
EBITDA, $m
  194
  248
  270
  292
  315
  340
  365
  391
  418
  447
  476
  507
  538
  572
  606
  642
  680
  719
  760
  802
  847
  893
  942
  993
  1,046
  1,102
  1,160
  1,221
  1,285
  1,352
  1,423
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  178
  196
  216
  236
  257
  279
  302
  325
  350
  375
  445
  472
  501
  531
  562
  595
  629
  664
  701
  740
  780
  822
  866
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,064
  1,120
  1,178
  1,238
Tax expense, $m
  43
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  88
  94
  101
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  273
  287
  302
  318
  334
Net income, $m
  104
  130
  143
  158
  172
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  325
  345
  366
  388
  410
  434
  459
  485
  512
  540
  569
  600
  632
  666
  701
  738
  777
  817
  860
  904

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  96
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,130
  1,127
  1,225
  1,327
  1,433
  1,543
  1,658
  1,777
  1,900
  2,029
  2,163
  2,302
  2,446
  2,597
  2,754
  2,918
  3,088
  3,266
  3,452
  3,645
  3,848
  4,059
  4,281
  4,512
  4,754
  5,007
  5,272
  5,550
  5,841
  6,145
  6,464
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,034
  1,127
  1,225
  1,327
  1,433
  1,543
  1,658
  1,777
  1,900
  2,029
  2,163
  2,302
  2,446
  2,597
  2,754
  2,918
  3,088
  3,266
  3,452
  3,645
  3,848
  4,059
  4,281
  4,512
  4,754
  5,007
  5,272
  5,550
  5,841
  6,145
  6,464
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
  0.483
Average production assets, $m
  433
  473
  514
  556
  601
  647
  695
  745
  797
  851
  907
  965
  1,026
  1,089
  1,155
  1,223
  1,295
  1,369
  1,447
  1,528
  1,613
  1,702
  1,795
  1,892
  1,993
  2,099
  2,210
  2,327
  2,449
  2,576
  2,710
Working capital, $m
  200
  118
  128
  138
  150
  161
  173
  185
  198
  212
  226
  240
  255
  271
  287
  304
  322
  341
  360
  380
  401
  424
  447
  471
  496
  522
  550
  579
  609
  641
  674
Total debt, $m
  95
  113
  137
  161
  186
  213
  240
  269
  298
  329
  361
  394
  429
  465
  502
  541
  582
  625
  669
  715
  764
  814
  867
  922
  980
  1,041
  1,104
  1,170
  1,240
  1,313
  1,389
Total liabilities, $m
  250
  269
  293
  317
  342
  369
  396
  425
  454
  485
  517
  550
  585
  621
  658
  697
  738
  781
  825
  871
  920
  970
  1,023
  1,078
  1,136
  1,197
  1,260
  1,326
  1,396
  1,469
  1,545
Total equity, $m
  879
  858
  932
  1,010
  1,091
  1,174
  1,262
  1,352
  1,446
  1,544
  1,646
  1,752
  1,862
  1,976
  2,096
  2,220
  2,350
  2,485
  2,627
  2,774
  2,928
  3,089
  3,258
  3,434
  3,618
  3,810
  4,012
  4,223
  4,445
  4,676
  4,919
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,129
  1,127
  1,225
  1,327
  1,433
  1,543
  1,658
  1,777
  1,900
  2,029
  2,163
  2,302
  2,447
  2,597
  2,754
  2,917
  3,088
  3,266
  3,452
  3,645
  3,848
  4,059
  4,281
  4,512
  4,754
  5,007
  5,272
  5,549
  5,841
  6,145
  6,464
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.108
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.757
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761
  0.761

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  104
  130
  143
  158
  172
  188
  204
  220
  237
  255
  274
  325
  345
  366
  388
  410
  434
  459
  485
  512
  540
  569
  600
  632
  666
  701
  738
  777
  817
  860
  904
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  43
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  89
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
Funds from operations, $m
  129
  197
  213
  229
  246
  264
  282
  301
  321
  342
  363
  374
  397
  421
  446
  473
  500
  529
  559
  590
  622
  656
  692
  729
  768
  808
  851
  895
  942
  991
  1,042
Change in working capital, $m
  -15
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
Cash from operations, $m
  144
  197
  202
  218
  235
  252
  270
  289
  308
  328
  349
  359
  382
  406
  430
  456
  482
  510
  539
  569
  601
  634
  669
  705
  742
  782
  823
  867
  912
  959
  1,009
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -108
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
Free cash flow, $m
  36
  135
  137
  149
  162
  175
  189
  203
  218
  234
  250
  255
  272
  290
  309
  328
  348
  370
  391
  414
  438
  463
  489
  516
  544
  574
  605
  637
  671
  707
  744
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  25
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  61
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  58
  158
  161
  174
  187
  202
  217
  232
  248
  264
  282
  288
  307
  326
  346
  367
  389
  412
  436
  461
  487
  514
  542
  571
  602
  635
  668
  704
  741
  779
  820
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -184
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  92
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  179
  86
  96
  107
  118
  129
  141
  154
  167
  180
  182
  197
  211
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  313
  332
  353
  374
  395
  418
  442
  467
  492
  519
  548
  577
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  172
  79
  84
  88
  91
  94
  95
  96
  96
  94
  87
  84
  80
  76
  71
  66
  60
  54
  48
  42
  36
  31
  26
  21
  17
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Bio-Techne Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells biotechnology reagents, instruments, and clinical diagnostic controls worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Biotechnology, Clinical Controls, and Protein Platforms. The Biotechnology segment provides proteins, such as cytokines, growth factors, and enzymes; polyclonal antibodies in goats, sheep, and rabbits, as well as monoclonal antibodies; microtiter-plate based kits, immunoassays based on encoded bead technology and planar spotted surfaces, and microfluidic-based immunoassays to quantify the level of a specific protein in biological fluids; and erythropoietin, transferrin receptor, and Beta2-microglobulin immunoassays for use as in vitro diagnostic devices. This segment also offers fluorochrome labeled antibodies and kits to determine the immuno-phenotypic properties of cells from various tissues; and natural or synthetic chemical compounds for use as agonists, antagonists, and/or inhibitors of various biological functions. The Clinical Controls segment provides hematology controls and calibrators for hematology clinical instruments; clinical controls for blood glucose and blood gas devices, as well as coagulation device control products; and bulk purified proteins, enzymes, disease-state plasmas, infectious disease antigens, and processed serums to the clinical diagnostic industry. The Protein Platforms segment develops, manufactures, and sells tools comprising Simple Western platform, an assay for protein analysis and identification; SimplePlex platform, an assay used in research and clinical diagnostics; and Biologics Instrumentation to interrogate protein purity and identify contaminants during the development and production of biologics. The company was formerly known as Techne Corporation and changed its name to Bio-Techne Corporation in November 2014. Bio-Techne Corporation was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Bio-Techne (TECH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 42.5
Price to Sales 8.9
Price to Book 5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 24
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 10.4%
Total Debt to Equity 10.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Equity 12.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 67.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.5%
EBITDA Margin 38.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43.5%
Operating Margin 30.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 29.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.2%
Net Profit Margin 20.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.2%
Effective Tax Rate 29.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Payout Ratio 46.2%

TECH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TECH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $499 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Bio-Techne. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Bio-Techne. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TECH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TECH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Bio-Techne, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Bio-Techne.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TECH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 67.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TECH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Bio-Techne.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Bio-Techne. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TECH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TECH are equal to 86.8%.

Life of production assets of 19.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Bio-Techne operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TECH is equal to 21.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $879 million for Bio-Techne - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 36.969 million for Bio-Techne is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Bio-Techne at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Bio-Techne Corp. : June 19, 2017   [Jun-19-17 04:10PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Investor Network: Bio-Techne to Host Earnings Call   [May-02-17 07:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ Bio-Techne Declares Dividend   [07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Bio-Techne Corp. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:35PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Innovative Veterinary Diagnostic Setting A New Standard   [Mar-01-17 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bio-Techne Declares Dividend   [07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bio-Techne And Astute Medical Form Strategic Partnership   [Dec-14-16 04:14PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bio-Techne Declares Dividend   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bio-Techne Announces Investor Day And Webcast   [Aug-31-16 09:35AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Bio-Techne Declares Dividend   [07:00AM  PR Newswire]
Stock chart of TECH Financial statements of TECH Annual reports of TECH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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