Intrinsic value of Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A - TEGP

Previous Close

$23.69

  Intrinsic Value

$8.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

  Value-price divergence*

+258%

Previous close

$23.69

 
Intrinsic value

$8.33

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+258%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TEGP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.87
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  605
  617
  631
  648
  666
  686
  708
  732
  758
  786
  817
  849
  883
  920
  959
  1,000
  1,044
  1,091
  1,140
  1,192
  1,246
  1,304
  1,365
  1,429
  1,497
  1,568
  1,643
  1,722
  1,805
  1,893
  1,985
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  97
  99
  101
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  203
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  268
  274
  281
  288
  295
  303
  310
  318
  326
  334
  342
  351
  360
  369
  378
  387
  397
  407
  417
  428
  438
  449
  461
  472
  484
  496
  508
  521
  534
  547
Total operating expenses, $m
  351
  365
  373
  382
  390
  399
  410
  419
  430
  441
  452
  429
  441
  454
  467
  480
  494
  509
  524
  539
  556
  571
  589
  607
  625
  644
  664
  684
  706
  728
  750
Operating income, $m
  254
  252
  258
  266
  275
  286
  299
  313
  328
  346
  365
  420
  442
  466
  492
  520
  550
  582
  616
  652
  691
  732
  776
  822
  872
  924
  979
  1,038
  1,099
  1,165
  1,234
EBITDA, $m
  346
  367
  375
  385
  397
  410
  426
  443
  462
  483
  506
  531
  558
  587
  618
  651
  687
  725
  765
  808
  854
  903
  955
  1,010
  1,068
  1,129
  1,194
  1,263
  1,336
  1,413
  1,494
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  54
  56
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  106
  113
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  280
  296
Earnings before tax, $m
  261
  198
  203
  208
  214
  221
  230
  240
  251
  263
  277
  326
  343
  360
  379
  400
  422
  446
  471
  498
  527
  558
  591
  626
  663
  702
  744
  788
  835
  885
  938
Tax expense, $m
  18
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  151
  160
  169
  179
  190
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
Net income, $m
  27
  144
  148
  152
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  192
  202
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  325
  344
  364
  385
  407
  431
  457
  484
  513
  543
  576
  610
  646
  685

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,625
  3,695
  3,780
  3,877
  3,986
  4,107
  4,240
  4,384
  4,541
  4,709
  4,890
  5,083
  5,289
  5,509
  5,742
  5,990
  6,253
  6,531
  6,824
  7,135
  7,463
  7,809
  8,173
  8,558
  8,963
  9,390
  9,839
  10,312
  10,810
  11,333
  11,884
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,623
  3,695
  3,780
  3,877
  3,986
  4,107
  4,240
  4,384
  4,541
  4,709
  4,890
  5,083
  5,289
  5,509
  5,742
  5,990
  6,253
  6,531
  6,824
  7,135
  7,463
  7,809
  8,173
  8,558
  8,963
  9,390
  9,839
  10,312
  10,810
  11,333
  11,884
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
  0.167
Average production assets, $m
  2,148
  2,191
  2,241
  2,299
  2,363
  2,435
  2,514
  2,599
  2,692
  2,792
  2,899
  3,013
  3,136
  3,266
  3,404
  3,551
  3,707
  3,872
  4,046
  4,230
  4,424
  4,629
  4,846
  5,074
  5,314
  5,567
  5,833
  6,113
  6,408
  6,719
  7,045
Working capital, $m
  -38
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
Total debt, $m
  1,556
  1,590
  1,666
  1,754
  1,852
  1,961
  2,080
  2,210
  2,351
  2,502
  2,665
  2,839
  3,024
  3,222
  3,432
  3,655
  3,891
  4,141
  4,406
  4,685
  4,980
  5,292
  5,620
  5,966
  6,331
  6,715
  7,119
  7,545
  7,993
  8,464
  8,959
Total liabilities, $m
  3,292
  3,326
  3,402
  3,490
  3,588
  3,697
  3,816
  3,946
  4,087
  4,238
  4,401
  4,575
  4,760
  4,958
  5,168
  5,391
  5,627
  5,877
  6,142
  6,421
  6,716
  7,028
  7,356
  7,702
  8,067
  8,451
  8,855
  9,281
  9,729
  10,200
  10,695
Total equity, $m
  333
  370
  378
  388
  399
  411
  424
  438
  454
  471
  489
  508
  529
  551
  574
  599
  625
  653
  682
  713
  746
  781
  817
  856
  896
  939
  984
  1,031
  1,081
  1,133
  1,188
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,625
  3,696
  3,780
  3,878
  3,987
  4,108
  4,240
  4,384
  4,541
  4,709
  4,890
  5,083
  5,289
  5,509
  5,742
  5,990
  6,252
  6,530
  6,824
  7,134
  7,462
  7,809
  8,173
  8,558
  8,963
  9,390
  9,839
  10,312
  10,810
  11,333
  11,883
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.673
  4.300
  4.410
  4.520
  4.650
  4.770
  4.910
  5.040
  5.180
  5.310
  5.450
  5.580
  5.720
  5.850
  5.980
  6.100
  6.220
  6.340
  6.460
  6.570
  6.670
  6.780
  6.880
  6.970
  7.060
  7.150
  7.240
  7.320
  7.390
  7.470
  7.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.091
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  144
  148
  152
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  192
  202
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  308
  325
  344
  364
  385
  407
  431
  457
  484
  513
  543
  576
  610
  646
  685
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  115
  117
  119
  122
  124
  127
  130
  134
  137
  141
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  226
  236
  248
  260
Funds from operations, $m
  444
  259
  265
  271
  278
  286
  295
  305
  317
  330
  344
  349
  366
  383
  403
  423
  445
  468
  493
  520
  548
  578
  610
  644
  680
  718
  758
  801
  846
  894
  945
Change in working capital, $m
  41
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  403
  260
  266
  272
  279
  287
  296
  307
  319
  331
  346
  352
  368
  386
  405
  426
  448
  471
  496
  523
  552
  582
  614
  648
  684
  723
  763
  806
  852
  900
  951
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
  -226
  -236
  -248
New CAPEX, $m
  -71
  -43
  -50
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -93
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -326
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -582
  -122
  -131
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -169
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -222
  -233
  -246
  -259
  -273
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -350
  -368
  -387
  -407
  -427
  -449
  -471
  -495
  -521
  -546
  -574
Free cash flow, $m
  -179
  138
  135
  131
  129
  128
  128
  129
  130
  132
  135
  130
  135
  140
  146
  153
  161
  170
  179
  190
  201
  214
  227
  241
  257
  274
  292
  311
  331
  353
  376
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  662
  34
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  404
  426
  448
  471
  496
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  133
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  181
  34
  76
  87
  98
  109
  119
  130
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  198
  210
  223
  236
  250
  264
  279
  295
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  404
  426
  448
  471
  496
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  171
  211
  219
  228
  237
  247
  259
  271
  284
  298
  304
  320
  338
  356
  376
  397
  420
  444
  469
  496
  525
  555
  588
  622
  658
  696
  736
  779
  824
  872
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  89
  -37
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  135
  203
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  255
  267
  280
  285
  300
  316
  333
  351
  371
  392
  414
  438
  463
  490
  519
  549
  581
  615
  651
  689
  729
  772
  817
Discount rate, %
 
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  122
  163
  149
  135
  121
  108
  95
  82
  70
  59
  48
  39
  32
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tallgrass Energy GP, LP, through its interests in Tallgrass Equity, LLC, provides crude oil transportation services to customers in Wyoming, Colorado, and the surrounding regions of the United States. It operates through three segments: Crude Oil Transportation & Logistics, Natural Gas Transportation & Logistics, and Processing & Logistics. The company also provides natural gas transportation and storage services for customers in the Rocky Mountain, Midwest, and Appalachian regions. In addition, it offers natural gas liquids transportation services in Northeast Colorado and Wyoming; and water business services in Colorado and Texas, as well as owns and operates natural gas processing, treating, and fractionation facilities. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Leawood, Kansas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A (TEGP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 138
Price to Sales 6.2
Price to Book 11.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 9.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -27.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 467.3%
Total Debt to Equity 467.3%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 74.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 64.3%
EBITDA Margin 64%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.4%
Operating Margin 42%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 43.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.9%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Effective Tax Rate 6.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Payout Ratio 7.4%

TEGP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TEGP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $605 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TEGP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for TEGP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TEGP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $261 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TEGP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TEGP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TEGP are equal to 355%.

Life of production assets of 27.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TEGP is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $333 million for Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 158.204 million for Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tallgrass Energy GP Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ These MLPs Increased Distribution in 3Q17   [Aug-11-17 04:19PM  Market Realist]
▶ Tallgrass Energy GP misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-03-17 12:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Tallgrass Energy Reports Strong Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Tallgrass Energy to Participate in MLPA Investor Conference   [May-30-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Telecom Egypt : May 23, 2017   [May-23-17 01:08PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tallgrass Energy Wins Champions of Business Award   [May-12-17 02:26PM  Business Wire]
▶ Tallgrass Energy GP beats 1Q profit forecasts   [05:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for April 20th   [Apr-20-17 10:06AM  Zacks]
▶ Which MLPs Are Leading in Distribution Growth?   [Mar-10-17 05:07PM  Market Realist]
▶ KC executive joins energy business hall of fame   [Mar-08-17 02:45PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ KC executive joins energy business hall of fame   [02:45PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ 10 High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Still Bargains   [Jan-25-17 02:20PM  at Kiplinger]
▶ Credit Suisse Has 5 Top Pick Energy MLPs for 2017   [Dec-14-16 09:10AM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
Stock chart of TEGP Financial statements of TEGP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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