Intrinsic value of TerraForm Power - TERP

Previous Close

$10.65

  Intrinsic Value

$1.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$10.65

 
Intrinsic value

$1.04

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of TERP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
(a)
   1
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -100.00
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  0
  622
  637
  653
  671
  692
  714
  738
  765
  793
  823
  856
  891
  928
  967
  1,009
  1,053
  1,100
  1,149
  1,201
  1,257
  1,315
  1,376
  1,441
  1,509
  1,581
  1,657
  1,736
  1,820
  1,908
  2,001
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  535
  545
  556
  568
  582
  598
  614
  632
  652
  673
  587
  611
  637
  664
  692
  723
  755
  789
  824
  862
  902
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
  1,373
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  0
  535
  545
  556
  568
  582
  598
  614
  632
  652
  673
  587
  611
  637
  664
  692
  723
  755
  789
  824
  862
  902
  944
  989
  1,036
  1,085
  1,137
  1,192
  1,249
  1,310
  1,373
Operating income, $m
  0
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  124
  132
  141
  150
  269
  279
  291
  303
  316
  330
  345
  360
  377
  394
  412
  432
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
  571
  599
  628
EBITDA, $m
  0
  808
  826
  847
  871
  898
  927
  958
  992
  1,029
  1,069
  1,111
  1,156
  1,204
  1,255
  1,309
  1,366
  1,427
  1,491
  1,559
  1,631
  1,706
  1,786
  1,870
  1,959
  2,052
  2,150
  2,253
  2,362
  2,477
  2,597
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  248
  253
  261
  270
  280
  292
  304
  317
  332
  347
  364
  382
  401
  421
  443
  466
  490
  516
  543
  572
  602
  634
  668
  703
  741
  780
  822
  865
  911
  960
Earnings before tax, $m
  0
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -168
  -171
  -175
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -313
  -332
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  0
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -168
  -171
  -175
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -313
  -332

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  0
  6,481
  6,630
  6,801
  6,992
  7,204
  7,437
  7,690
  7,964
  8,259
  8,576
  8,915
  9,277
  9,663
  10,072
  10,506
  10,967
  11,454
  11,970
  12,514
  13,089
  13,696
  14,336
  15,010
  15,721
  16,469
  17,257
  18,087
  18,959
  19,878
  20,843
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  0
  6,481
  6,630
  6,801
  6,992
  7,204
  7,437
  7,690
  7,964
  8,259
  8,576
  8,915
  9,277
  9,663
  10,072
  10,506
  10,967
  11,454
  11,970
  12,514
  13,089
  13,696
  14,336
  15,010
  15,721
  16,469
  17,257
  18,087
  18,959
  19,878
  20,843
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.000
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
Average production assets, $m
  0
  6,123
  6,264
  6,425
  6,606
  6,806
  7,026
  7,265
  7,524
  7,803
  8,102
  8,423
  8,765
  9,129
  9,515
  9,926
  10,361
  10,821
  11,308
  11,823
  12,366
  12,939
  13,544
  14,181
  14,852
  15,559
  16,304
  17,087
  17,912
  18,779
  19,692
Working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total debt, $m
  0
  3,673
  3,787
  3,918
  4,064
  4,226
  4,403
  4,597
  4,806
  5,032
  5,274
  5,533
  5,810
  6,104
  6,417
  6,749
  7,100
  7,473
  7,867
  8,283
  8,722
  9,185
  9,674
  10,190
  10,732
  11,304
  11,906
  12,540
  13,207
  13,908
  14,646
Total liabilities, $m
  0
  4,952
  5,066
  5,196
  5,342
  5,504
  5,682
  5,875
  6,084
  6,310
  6,552
  6,811
  7,088
  7,382
  7,695
  8,027
  8,379
  8,751
  9,145
  9,561
  10,000
  10,464
  10,953
  11,468
  12,011
  12,583
  13,185
  13,818
  14,485
  15,187
  15,924
Total equity, $m
  0
  1,530
  1,565
  1,605
  1,650
  1,700
  1,755
  1,815
  1,880
  1,949
  2,024
  2,104
  2,189
  2,280
  2,377
  2,480
  2,588
  2,703
  2,825
  2,953
  3,089
  3,232
  3,383
  3,542
  3,710
  3,887
  4,073
  4,268
  4,474
  4,691
  4,919
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  0
  6,482
  6,631
  6,801
  6,992
  7,204
  7,437
  7,690
  7,964
  8,259
  8,576
  8,915
  9,277
  9,662
  10,072
  10,507
  10,967
  11,454
  11,970
  12,514
  13,089
  13,696
  14,336
  15,010
  15,721
  16,470
  17,258
  18,086
  18,959
  19,878
  20,843
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  2.400
  2.420
  2.440
  2.460
  2.490
  2.510
  2.530
  2.560
  2.580
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.680
  2.700
  2.720
  2.740
  2.760
  2.780
  2.800
  2.820
  2.840
  2.860
  2.880
  2.890
  2.910
  2.920
  2.940
  2.950
  2.960
  2.980
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.000
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  0
  -161
  -162
  -164
  -168
  -171
  -175
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -197
  -95
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -126
  -135
  -145
  -155
  -166
  -177
  -189
  -202
  -215
  -230
  -245
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -313
  -332
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  720
  734
  750
  768
  788
  810
  834
  860
  888
  918
  842
  876
  913
  952
  993
  1,036
  1,082
  1,131
  1,182
  1,237
  1,294
  1,354
  1,418
  1,485
  1,556
  1,630
  1,709
  1,791
  1,878
  1,969
Funds from operations, $m
  0
  559
  573
  586
  601
  617
  635
  654
  675
  697
  721
  747
  774
  803
  834
  866
  901
  937
  976
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,152
  1,203
  1,256
  1,311
  1,370
  1,432
  1,497
  1,565
  1,637
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  0
  559
  573
  586
  601
  617
  635
  654
  675
  697
  721
  747
  774
  803
  834
  866
  901
  937
  976
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,152
  1,203
  1,256
  1,311
  1,370
  1,432
  1,497
  1,565
  1,637
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -601
  -612
  -626
  -642
  -661
  -681
  -703
  -726
  -752
  -780
  -810
  -842
  -876
  -913
  -952
  -993
  -1,036
  -1,082
  -1,131
  -1,182
  -1,237
  -1,294
  -1,354
  -1,418
  -1,485
  -1,556
  -1,630
  -1,709
  -1,791
  -1,878
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -116
  -141
  -161
  -181
  -200
  -220
  -239
  -259
  -279
  -299
  -320
  -342
  -364
  -387
  -410
  -435
  -460
  -487
  -514
  -543
  -573
  -604
  -637
  -671
  -707
  -744
  -784
  -825
  -867
  -912
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -717
  -753
  -787
  -823
  -861
  -901
  -942
  -985
  -1,031
  -1,079
  -1,130
  -1,184
  -1,240
  -1,300
  -1,362
  -1,428
  -1,496
  -1,569
  -1,645
  -1,725
  -1,810
  -1,898
  -1,991
  -2,089
  -2,192
  -2,300
  -2,414
  -2,534
  -2,658
  -2,790
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  -157
  -181
  -201
  -222
  -244
  -265
  -288
  -310
  -334
  -358
  -384
  -410
  -437
  -466
  -496
  -527
  -559
  -593
  -629
  -666
  -705
  -746
  -789
  -834
  -881
  -930
  -982
  -1,036
  -1,093
  -1,153
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  75
  114
  130
  146
  162
  178
  193
  209
  226
  242
  259
  276
  294
  313
  332
  352
  372
  394
  416
  439
  464
  489
  515
  543
  572
  602
  634
  667
  702
  738
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  180
  197
  205
  213
  221
  230
  240
  250
  260
  272
  175
  188
  201
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  313
  333
  353
  375
  397
  421
  446
  473
  500
  529
  560
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  255
  311
  335
  359
  383
  408
  433
  459
  486
  514
  434
  464
  495
  527
  561
  596
  632
  671
  710
  752
  797
  842
  890
  940
  993
  1,048
  1,107
  1,167
  1,231
  1,298
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  98
  130
  133
  136
  140
  143
  146
  149
  152
  155
  51
  54
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  118
  124
  131
  137
  145
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  0
  -180
  -197
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -214
  -229
  -244
  -260
  -277
  -294
  -313
  -333
  -353
  -375
  -397
  -421
  -446
  -473
  -500
  -529
  -560
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -82
  -67
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -213
  -227
  -242
  -257
  -274
  -291
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -370
  -392
  -415
Discount rate, %
 
  11.00
  11.55
  12.13
  12.73
  13.37
  14.04
  14.74
  15.48
  16.25
  17.06
  17.92
  18.81
  19.75
  20.74
  21.78
  22.87
  24.01
  25.21
  26.47
  27.80
  29.19
  30.65
  32.18
  33.79
  35.48
  37.25
  39.11
  41.07
  43.12
  45.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -74
  -54
  -51
  -47
  -44
  -40
  -36
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  86.0
  73.2
  62.1
  52.6
  44.5
  37.5
  31.6
  26.6
  22.4
  18.8
  16.8
  15.0
  13.3
  11.8
  10.5
  9.2
  8.1
  7.1
  6.2
  5.4
  4.7
  4.1
  3.6
  3.1
  2.7
  2.3
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.3

TerraForm Power, Inc. is a United States-based holding company. The Company owns clean power generation assets. This includes solar and wind assets located in the United States, Canada and other markets. Its clean power generation assets serve utility, commercial and residential customers. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of renewable energy facilities located in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Chile with a combined nameplate capacity of 2,983.1 megawatts. It owns and operates over 500 hundred wind and solar clean energy power installations. Its projects include Bluebird, River Mountains Solar, Laho Solar, SunE Perpetual Lindsday, Sandringham, California Public institutions and Summit Solar Projects. The Company holds interest in TerraForm Power, LLC (Terra LLC), which is an owner and operator of renewable energy facilities that have long-term contractual arrangements to sell the electricity generated by these facilities to third parties.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  TerraForm Power (TERP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TERP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TERP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $610 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by TerraForm Power. The default revenue input number comes from income statement of TerraForm Power. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TERP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11%, whose default value for TERP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of TerraForm Power, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of TerraForm Power.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TERP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TERP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.9% for TerraForm Power.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for TerraForm Power. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TERP stock is equal to 2.7%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TERP are equal to 984.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in TerraForm Power operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TERP is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1510 million for TerraForm Power - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104 million for TerraForm Power is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of TerraForm Power at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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Financial statements of TERP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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