Intrinsic value of Tesco - TESO

Previous Close

$5.25

  Intrinsic Value

$1.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-70%

  Value-price divergence*

+20%

Previous close

$5.25

 
Intrinsic value

$1.59

 
Up/down potential

-70%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+20%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TESO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -51.79
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  135
  159
  185
  213
  243
  275
  309
  346
  384
  424
  466
  509
  555
  602
  652
  703
  757
  812
  870
  930
  992
  1,057
  1,124
  1,194
  1,268
  1,344
  1,423
  1,506
  1,592
  1,682
  1,776
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  145
  168
  194
  221
  251
  282
  315
  350
  386
  424
  464
  506
  549
  594
  641
  689
  740
  792
  847
  904
  963
  1,024
  1,088
  1,155
  1,224
  1,296
  1,372
  1,450
  1,532
  1,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  133
  137
  140
  143
  147
  151
  155
  158
  162
  166
  171
  175
  179
  184
  188
  193
  198
  203
  208
  213
  218
  224
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  260
  266
  273
Total operating expenses, $m
  250
  278
  305
  334
  364
  398
  433
  470
  508
  548
  590
  635
  681
  728
  778
  829
  882
  938
  995
  1,055
  1,117
  1,181
  1,248
  1,317
  1,390
  1,465
  1,543
  1,625
  1,710
  1,798
  1,891
Operating income, $m
  -115
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -122
  -123
  -123
  -124
  -124
  -125
  -125
  -125
  -125
  -126
  -126
  -126
  -126
  -126
  -125
  -125
  -125
  -124
  -124
  -123
  -122
  -121
  -120
  -119
  -118
  -116
  -115
EBITDA, $m
  -86
  -85
  -81
  -75
  -70
  -64
  -57
  -50
  -42
  -34
  -25
  -16
  -6
  4
  14
  25
  37
  49
  61
  74
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  167
  185
  204
  224
  245
  266
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -123
  -124
  -124
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -129
  -129
  -130
  -130
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -130
  -129
  -128
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -123
  -124
  -124
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -129
  -129
  -130
  -130
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -130
  -129
  -128

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  91
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  344
  297
  346
  398
  455
  515
  579
  647
  719
  794
  872
  954
  1,039
  1,128
  1,221
  1,317
  1,417
  1,521
  1,629
  1,741
  1,858
  1,979
  2,105
  2,237
  2,374
  2,516
  2,665
  2,820
  2,981
  3,150
  3,326
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  253
  297
  346
  398
  455
  515
  579
  647
  719
  794
  872
  954
  1,039
  1,128
  1,221
  1,317
  1,417
  1,521
  1,629
  1,741
  1,858
  1,979
  2,105
  2,237
  2,374
  2,516
  2,665
  2,820
  2,981
  3,150
  3,326
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.534
  0.535
  0.535
  0.535
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.535
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
  0.534
Average production assets, $m
  154
  181
  210
  242
  276
  313
  352
  393
  436
  482
  529
  579
  631
  685
  741
  800
  860
  923
  989
  1,057
  1,128
  1,202
  1,278
  1,358
  1,441
  1,528
  1,618
  1,712
  1,810
  1,913
  2,020
Working capital, $m
  188
  79
  92
  106
  121
  138
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  277
  301
  326
  352
  378
  406
  435
  465
  496
  528
  562
  597
  634
  672
  712
  753
  796
  841
  888
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  12
  19
  27
  35
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  142
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  323
  344
  366
  388
  412
Total liabilities, $m
  35
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  78
  87
  96
  106
  117
  128
  139
  151
  164
  176
  190
  204
  218
  233
  249
  265
  282
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
  400
  422
  446
Total equity, $m
  310
  257
  300
  345
  394
  446
  502
  561
  622
  687
  755
  826
  900
  977
  1,057
  1,141
  1,227
  1,317
  1,411
  1,508
  1,609
  1,714
  1,823
  1,937
  2,056
  2,179
  2,308
  2,442
  2,582
  2,728
  2,881
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  345
  297
  346
  398
  455
  515
  580
  648
  718
  793
  872
  954
  1,039
  1,128
  1,221
  1,317
  1,417
  1,521
  1,629
  1,741
  1,858
  1,979
  2,105
  2,237
  2,374
  2,516
  2,665
  2,820
  2,982
  3,150
  3,327
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.020
  0.040
  0.060
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.130
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
  0.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866
  0.866

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -123
  -124
  -124
  -125
  -126
  -127
  -128
  -128
  -129
  -129
  -130
  -130
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -132
  -131
  -131
  -131
  -130
  -129
  -128
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  29
  34
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  74
  82
  91
  100
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  162
  174
  187
  199
  213
  227
  241
  256
  272
  288
  305
  323
  342
  361
  381
Funds from operations, $m
  41
  -85
  -81
  -76
  -70
  -64
  -58
  -51
  -44
  -36
  -28
  -19
  -10
  0
  10
  21
  32
  43
  55
  68
  81
  95
  109
  124
  140
  157
  174
  193
  212
  232
  253
Change in working capital, $m
  43
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  -97
  -94
  -90
  -86
  -81
  -75
  -69
  -63
  -56
  -49
  -41
  -32
  -24
  -15
  -5
  5
  16
  26
  38
  50
  63
  76
  89
  104
  119
  135
  151
  169
  187
  206
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -29
  -34
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -59
  -66
  -74
  -82
  -91
  -100
  -109
  -119
  -129
  -140
  -151
  -162
  -174
  -187
  -199
  -213
  -227
  -241
  -256
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -323
  -342
  -361
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -3
  -56
  -63
  -72
  -80
  -89
  -98
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -139
  -150
  -161
  -173
  -185
  -198
  -212
  -225
  -240
  -255
  -270
  -287
  -304
  -321
  -339
  -359
  -378
  -399
  -421
  -444
  -468
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -153
  -157
  -161
  -165
  -169
  -173
  -177
  -180
  -184
  -187
  -190
  -194
  -197
  -200
  -203
  -207
  -210
  -213
  -217
  -220
  -224
  -228
  -232
  -236
  -240
  -244
  -248
  -253
  -257
  -262
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  48
  158
  162
  167
  172
  176
  180
  184
  188
  192
  195
  199
  203
  206
  210
  214
  217
  221
  225
  229
  233
  237
  241
  246
  250
  255
  260
  265
  270
  275
  281
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  164
  169
  174
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  202
  206
  210
  214
  218
  222
  227
  230
  235
  239
  244
  249
  253
  258
  264
  268
  274
  280
  286
  292
  298
  305
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  40
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  65
  -158
  -162
  -167
  -172
  -176
  -180
  -184
  -188
  -192
  -195
  -199
  -203
  -206
  -210
  -214
  -217
  -221
  -225
  -229
  -233
  -237
  -241
  -246
  -250
  -255
  -260
  -265
  -270
  -275
  -281
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  91
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -56
  -151
  -154
  -158
  -161
  -165
  -168
  -171
  -174
  -177
  -179
  -182
  -185
  -188
  -190
  -193
  -196
  -199
  -202
  -205
  -208
  -211
  -214
  -217
  -221
  -224
  -227
  -231
  -235
  -238
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -54
  -138
  -134
  -130
  -125
  -119
  -113
  -107
  -100
  -93
  -85
  -78
  -70
  -63
  -56
  -49
  -43
  -37
  -31
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  53.5
  30.4
  18.1
  11.3
  7.4
  5.0
  3.4
  2.4
  1.8
  1.3
  1.0
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Tesco Corporation is a provider of technology-based solutions for drilling, servicing and completion of wells for the upstream energy industry. The Company's operations consist of top drives and automated pipe handling equipment sales and rentals; aftermarket sales and services, and tubular services, including related products and accessories sales. Its segments include Products, Tubular Services, Research and Engineering, and Corporate and Other. The Products segment includes top drives and automated pipe handling equipment sales, rentals and aftermarket sales and services. The Tubular Services segment includes onshore and offshore tubular services and sales of related products and accessories. The Research and Engineering segment includes internal research, engineering, and development activities related to its products and tubular services. The Corporate and Other segment includes executive management and various global support and compliance functions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tesco (TESO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.1
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -122.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -27.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -51.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -53.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -28.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -30.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.7%
Return On Total Capital -34.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.2%
Return On Equity -34.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.2%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -31.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
EBITDA Margin -65.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.5%
Operating Margin -85.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -87.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -40.9%
Net Profit Margin -87.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -43.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

TESO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TESO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $135 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tesco. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tesco. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TESO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TESO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tesco, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tesco.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TESO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $130 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TESO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tesco.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tesco. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TESO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TESO are equal to 113.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tesco operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TESO is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $310 million for Tesco - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.88 million for Tesco is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tesco at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to Tesco Corp. : September 15, 2017   [Sep-15-17 06:01PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tesco Corp. : September 1, 2017   [Aug-31-17 09:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ How Nabors Industries Is Valued Compared to Its Peers   [Aug-22-17 04:36PM  Market Realist]
▶ Why Nabors Plans to Acquire Tesco   [Aug-17-17 03:54PM  Market Realist]
▶ Nabors to acquire Houston oil field services co. in all-stock deal   [09:25AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Tesco reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 04:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Amazon Will Not Kill This Business   [Aug-03-17 11:56AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tesco Corp. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 05:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tesco Corp. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tesco reports 1Q loss   [06:22AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Tesco Corp. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:34PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Tesco reports 4Q loss   [06:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Spinning My Small-Cap Value Wheels Out of the Gate   [Feb-08-17 11:00AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Tesco's Booker Prize at Risk   [Jan-30-17 07:18AM  at Bloomberg]
▶ Is Tesco Corporation (USA) (TESO) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-20-16 04:18PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ PRESS DIGEST- British Business - Sept 7   [Sep-06-16 08:18PM  Reuters]
Financial statements of TESO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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