Intrinsic value of Tecogen - TGEN

Previous Close

$2.95

  Intrinsic Value

$26.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+787%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$2.95

 
Intrinsic value

$26.16

 
Up/down potential

+787%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of TGEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.29
  33.30
  30.47
  27.92
  25.63
  23.57
  21.71
  20.04
  18.54
  17.18
  15.96
  14.87
  13.88
  12.99
  12.19
  11.47
  10.83
  10.24
  9.72
  9.25
  8.82
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
Revenue, $m
  24
  32
  42
  53
  67
  83
  101
  121
  144
  168
  195
  224
  255
  288
  323
  361
  400
  441
  483
  528
  575
  623
  674
  726
  781
  837
  896
  957
  1,021
  1,087
  1,156
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  11
  14
  18
  22
  28
  34
  40
  48
  56
  65
  75
  85
  96
  108
  120
  133
  147
  161
  176
  191
  208
  224
  242
  260
  279
  298
  319
  340
  362
  385
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
Total operating expenses, $m
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  47
  54
  60
  69
  77
  87
  97
  108
  119
  132
  145
  158
  173
  188
  203
  219
  237
  253
  272
  291
  311
  330
  352
  374
  397
  421
Operating income, $m
  -1
  4
  10
  17
  26
  36
  48
  61
  75
  91
  108
  127
  147
  169
  192
  216
  241
  268
  296
  325
  355
  387
  420
  454
  490
  527
  565
  605
  647
  690
  735
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  4
  10
  18
  27
  37
  48
  62
  76
  92
  110
  129
  149
  171
  194
  219
  245
  272
  300
  329
  360
  392
  426
  460
  496
  534
  573
  613
  656
  699
  745
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -1
  4
  10
  17
  25
  35
  47
  59
  74
  89
  106
  125
  145
  166
  188
  212
  237
  263
  290
  319
  349
  380
  412
  446
  481
  517
  555
  594
  635
  677
  721
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  39
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  103
  111
  120
  130
  140
  150
  160
  171
  183
  195
Net income, $m
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  19
  26
  34
  43
  54
  65
  78
  91
  106
  121
  137
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  277
  301
  325
  351
  377
  405
  434
  463
  494
  527

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  24
  27
  35
  44
  56
  69
  84
  101
  120
  140
  163
  187
  213
  240
  270
  301
  333
  367
  403
  440
  479
  519
  561
  605
  651
  698
  747
  798
  851
  906
  963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  20
  27
  35
  44
  56
  69
  84
  101
  120
  140
  163
  187
  213
  240
  270
  301
  333
  367
  403
  440
  479
  519
  561
  605
  651
  698
  747
  798
  851
  906
  963
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.200
  1.185
  1.200
  1.205
  1.196
  1.203
  1.202
  1.198
  1.200
  1.200
  1.196
  1.198
  1.197
  1.200
  1.196
  1.199
  1.201
  1.202
  1.199
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
  1.201
  1.200
  1.200
  1.199
  1.199
  1.199
  1.200
  1.200
  1.200
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  6
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
Working capital, $m
  14
  13
  17
  22
  28
  35
  42
  51
  60
  70
  81
  93
  106
  120
  135
  150
  167
  184
  202
  220
  240
  260
  281
  303
  326
  349
  374
  399
  426
  453
  482
Total debt, $m
  3
  6
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  39
  48
  57
  67
  78
  90
  102
  115
  129
  144
  159
  175
  192
  210
  228
  247
  266
  287
  308
  330
  353
  377
  402
  428
Total liabilities, $m
  9
  12
  16
  20
  25
  31
  38
  45
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  108
  121
  135
  150
  165
  181
  198
  216
  234
  253
  272
  293
  314
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
Total equity, $m
  15
  15
  19
  24
  31
  38
  46
  56
  66
  77
  89
  103
  117
  132
  148
  165
  183
  202
  222
  242
  263
  286
  309
  333
  358
  384
  411
  439
  468
  498
  530
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  24
  27
  35
  44
  56
  69
  84
  101
  120
  140
  162
  187
  213
  240
  269
  300
  333
  367
  403
  440
  479
  520
  562
  605
  651
  698
  747
  798
  851
  906
  964
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.200
  0.410
  0.500
  0.570
  0.620
  0.660
  0.690
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
  0.780
  0.780
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550
  0.550

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  19
  26
  34
  43
  54
  65
  78
  91
  106
  121
  137
  155
  173
  192
  212
  233
  255
  277
  301
  325
  351
  377
  405
  434
  463
  494
  527
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
Funds from operations, $m
  -5
  3
  7
  13
  19
  27
  35
  44
  55
  67
  79
  93
  108
  123
  140
  158
  176
  196
  216
  237
  259
  282
  306
  331
  357
  384
  412
  441
  472
  503
  536
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  0
  3
  8
  13
  20
  27
  36
  46
  56
  68
  81
  95
  110
  125
  142
  160
  179
  198
  219
  240
  262
  285
  310
  335
  361
  388
  416
  445
  476
  507
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
Free cash flow, $m
  -5
  -1
  2
  7
  12
  18
  25
  33
  43
  53
  64
  77
  90
  105
  120
  136
  154
  172
  191
  211
  232
  253
  276
  300
  324
  350
  376
  403
  432
  462
  493
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -2
  3
  6
  11
  17
  24
  32
  41
  51
  62
  75
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  249
  272
  295
  319
  344
  371
  398
  426
  456
  487
  519
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -2
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  3
  2
  6
  11
  17
  24
  32
  41
  51
  62
  74
  88
  102
  117
  133
  150
  168
  187
  207
  228
  249
  272
  295
  320
  345
  371
  398
  427
  456
  487
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  3
  1
  5
  9
  13
  17
  21
  26
  29
  33
  35
  37
  39
  39
  39
  38
  37
  34
  32
  29
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4
  98.4

Tecogen Inc. designs, manufactures, sells and maintains cogeneration products, including combined heat and power (CHP), air conditioning systems and water heaters for residential, commercial, recreational and industrial use. The Company is engaged in the business of manufacturing and supporting CHP products based on engines fueled by natural gas. The Company manufactures over three types of CHP products, such as cogeneration units that supply electricity and hot water, chillers that provide air-conditioning and hot water, and water heaters. Its commercial product line includes the InVerde, InVerde e+ and TECOGEN cogeneration units; TECOCHILL chillers; Ilios high-efficiency water heaters, and Ultera emissions control technology. Its customers include hospitals and nursing homes, hotels and motels, office and retail buildings, and military installations. Its cogeneration systems and chillers use the engine, the TecoDrive 7400 model.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tecogen (TGEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -58.9
Price to Sales 2.5
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -19.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -19.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20%
Total Debt to Equity 20%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Return On Total Capital -5.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.1%
Return On Equity -7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.4%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
EBITDA Margin -4.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Operating Margin -4.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Net Profit Margin -4.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

TGEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TGEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $24 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tecogen. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Tecogen. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TGEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 33.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TGEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tecogen, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tecogen.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TGEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 33.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $17 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TGEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Tecogen.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tecogen. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TGEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TGEN are equal to 8.3%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tecogen operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TGEN is equal to 41.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $15 million for Tecogen - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.716 million for Tecogen is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tecogen at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Tecogen to hold Ultratek Update Conference Call   [Oct-13-17 02:45PM  Marketwired]
▶ Ontario Cucumber Grower Teams Up With Tecogen   [Oct-12-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Manhattan Co-op Chooses InVerde e+ Power   [Sep-27-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Cannabis Order Book Grows Higher   [Sep-20-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Tecogen Secures 10-Unit InVerde e+ Order   [Sep-06-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Laundromat Chooses Tecogen for Clean(ing) Power   [Aug-30-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Tecogen Announces Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-14-17 08:45AM  Marketwired]
▶ Chiller Sale to Repeat Customer in Boise, Idaho   [Aug-10-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Maine Fitness Club Makes Ilios its Choice for Hot Water   [Aug-01-17 08:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Jul-05-17 12:54PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Jun-01-17 02:38PM  Zacks]
▶ Tecogen Appoints New Executives   [May-25-17 09:00AM  Marketwired]
▶ Tecogen and American DG Complete Merger   [May-18-17 05:02PM  Marketwired]
▶ Tecogen And American DG Complete Merger   [04:55PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Announces Merger S-4 Effective by SEC   [Apr-13-17 09:25AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Presenting at SAE World Congress   [Apr-04-17 09:52AM  PR Newswire]
▶ MGM Selects Tecogen Clean Energy   [Feb-28-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Fairview at Forest Hills to Start Saving with Tecogen   [Nov-16-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Tecogen Inc./   [Nov-10-16 09:14AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen to Acquire American DG Energy   [08:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Sells Chillers to Gas Natural Fenosa   [Oct-06-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Wins $1.6M Order for 300kW InVerde e+ System   [Sep-20-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Announces TTcogen Breaks into New Jersey Market   [Aug-16-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Tecogen Announces Second Quarter 2016 Results   [Aug-10-16 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of TGEN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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